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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
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2018 May 14, 8:51am 76,905 views 699 comments
« First « Previous Comments 248 - 287 of 699 Next » Last » Search these comments
248
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 10, 4:30pm
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot
Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot
Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot
249
Shaman
2018 Oct 10, 4:33pm
Shaman
2018 Oct 10, 4:33pm
That same very biased CNN poll said that 50% of the same people thought the GOP would retain the majority in the House.
252
RWSGFY
2018 Oct 10, 5:42pm
RWSGFY
2018 Oct 10, 5:42pm
LeonDurham says
Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.
Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot
Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.
253
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 10, 5:45pm
DASKAA says
Maybe. Dems seem pretty energized this time around. Predicting turnout is very difficult, however, so you could be right.
Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.
Maybe. Dems seem pretty energized this time around. Predicting turnout is very difficult, however, so you could be right.
254
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 10, 5:48pm
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 10, 5:48pm
LeonDurham says
Oh also, HRC holds a 13 point advantage over Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot
Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot
Oh also, HRC holds a 13 point advantage over Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html
255
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 10, 5:50pm
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 10, 5:50pm
"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
Ok, so for anyone paying attention. A 12 point lead w a 3.5 % margin of error should almost NEVER result in a Trump victory.
Tell us again about those reliable polls?
Ok, so for anyone paying attention. A 12 point lead w a 3.5 % margin of error should almost NEVER result in a Trump victory.
Tell us again about those reliable polls?
256
Shaman
2018 Oct 10, 7:45pm
Shaman
2018 Oct 10, 7:45pm
What I’m seeing is this. people who’ve sidelined themselves from politics or voting for years or even decades because they don’t believe in the process are having a change of heart. They’re seeing things happen that could have never happened when one of the trained apes who usually run the world were in charge. They see that the Democrats are completely deranged and hostile to regular Americans. They deeply mistrust these Leftists and are ready to cast a vote they haven’t used in years to keep the idiots from getting back in power.
I’m predicting a MUCH larger Republican turnout than anyone expects. And I’m predicting a smaller Dem turnout than expected. It’ll be a bloodbath.
I’m predicting a MUCH larger Republican turnout than anyone expects. And I’m predicting a smaller Dem turnout than expected. It’ll be a bloodbath.
257
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 10, 7:50pm
TrumpingTits says
Was the election on October 22nd?
CBOEtrader says"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
Yeah. Likely voters asked totally unlikely questions regarding the real world.
Was the election on October 22nd?
258
marcus
2018 Oct 10, 9:38pm
marcus
2018 Oct 10, 9:38pm
Democrats will take control of the house, but probably not enough of a blue wave for them to take the senate.
But I am praying that they do, and I hardly ever pray.
But I am praying that they do, and I hardly ever pray.
259
Patrick
2018 Oct 10, 9:59pm
Patrick
2018 Oct 10, 9:59pm
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.
260
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 11, 4:43am
CBOEtrader
2018 Oct 11, 4:43am
Patrick says
Yup. Only 3 times in history has the party w newly elected potus gained seats. Midterms lining up to be as historical as 2016 epection.
MSM ignores traditions and attacked trump from day 1. This backfired enormously since Trump circumvented then via twitter and rallies. Whatever negative influence the MSM originally had has turned on them as more red pilled Americans support trump than ever.
Oddly enough it is the left constantly attacking, constantly smearing, constantly oppressing any wrongthinkers that has become Trump's biggest asset.
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.
Yup. Only 3 times in history has the party w newly elected potus gained seats. Midterms lining up to be as historical as 2016 epection.
MSM ignores traditions and attacked trump from day 1. This backfired enormously since Trump circumvented then via twitter and rallies. Whatever negative influence the MSM originally had has turned on them as more red pilled Americans support trump than ever.
Oddly enough it is the left constantly attacking, constantly smearing, constantly oppressing any wrongthinkers that has become Trump's biggest asset.
261
Shaman
2018 Oct 11, 6:28am
Shaman
2018 Oct 11, 6:28am
I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.
262
HeadSet
2018 Oct 11, 7:43am
HeadSet
2018 Oct 11, 7:43am
Quigley says
I would like to see the sane elements left in the Democrat Party break off and form a new Labor Party. Imagine a Party that is pro worker by curtailing illegal immigration, tariffs on low wage high pollution imports, and supporting private sector unions. May even pull in some Trump supporters and even Trump himself.
I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.
I would like to see the sane elements left in the Democrat Party break off and form a new Labor Party. Imagine a Party that is pro worker by curtailing illegal immigration, tariffs on low wage high pollution imports, and supporting private sector unions. May even pull in some Trump supporters and even Trump himself.
264
Bd6r
2018 Oct 11, 7:58am
Bd6r
2018 Oct 11, 7:58am
Patrick says
I frankly can't make up my mind on this. R's will hold Senate for sure, may be even gain a seat or two, but House is extremely unpredictable. My prediction is +/- same situation as now.
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling
I frankly can't make up my mind on this. R's will hold Senate for sure, may be even gain a seat or two, but House is extremely unpredictable. My prediction is +/- same situation as now.
267
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 12:54pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 12:54pm
Aphroman says
I want some.
How does matchbook work? Are we betting against each other or against the house? I'll only do this if I'm betting against your pocket book. I can bet on odds all day, that's not fun.
Goran: go to matchbook.com I’m offering up Ted Cruz vs Beto O’Rourke action, who wants some!
I want some.
How does matchbook work? Are we betting against each other or against the house? I'll only do this if I'm betting against your pocket book. I can bet on odds all day, that's not fun.
268
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 12:55pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 12:55pm
or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.
269
cmdrda2leak
2018 Oct 12, 1:53pm
cmdrda2leak
2018 Oct 12, 1:53pm
Goran_K says
pat.net feature request: current events wager book.
or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.
pat.net feature request: current events wager book.
270
Shaman
2018 Oct 12, 2:04pm
Shaman
2018 Oct 12, 2:04pm
Perhaps we could make bets and the loser has to donate to Patnet in the agreed upon amount?
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!
271
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 2:32pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 2:32pm
MockingbirdKiller says
Blew Wave!
Full disclosure to @Aphroman: Democrat running in a Florida district Trump LOST by TWENTY points in 2016 is behind her GOP opponent.
Blew Wave!
272
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 2:49pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 2:49pm
cmdrdataleak says
I think this would be a good feature @patrick. Could plug into PayPal.
Right now a lot of people talk way too much shit because it's free.
I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.
pat.net feature request: current events wager book.
I think this would be a good feature @patrick. Could plug into PayPal.
Right now a lot of people talk way too much shit because it's free.
I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.
274
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 4:30pm
How about $500 on who gains in the House?
Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.
Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.
275
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:34pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:34pm
LeonDurham says
I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.
If the Dems recover the house but not the senate (or vice versa) then it's a wash.
But it Dems pick up both (aka Blue Wave), I pay you $500.
If GOP keeps both, you pay me $500.
I'll take bets on this up to $2000 from other people who want to throw their money on the table.
Would you do that bet?
How about $500 on who gains in the House?
Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.
I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.
If the Dems recover the house but not the senate (or vice versa) then it's a wash.
But it Dems pick up both (aka Blue Wave), I pay you $500.
If GOP keeps both, you pay me $500.
I'll take bets on this up to $2000 from other people who want to throw their money on the table.
Would you do that bet?
276
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 4:36pm
I thought you were predicting a red wave? Doesn't sound like you're too confident.
277
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 4:38pm
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 4:38pm
Interesting re. Hispanics, who are supposed to vote D reliably...but apparently not in TX
A new poll released Thursday morning showed Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has stabilized his lead over his Democrat challenger, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso.
Fifty-four percent of Texans backed Cruz, while 45 percent backed O'Rourke in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
The poll also shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with a prohibitive lead over his Democratic rival, former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, 58 percent to 38 percent.
Strikingly, while Valdez and O'Rourke have consolidated support among African Americans, Abbott and Cruz garnered sizable Hispanic support. Cruz had the backing of 37 percent of Hispanic respondents while nearly half of Hispanics surveyed — 46 percent — supported Abbott.
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/11/cruz-orourke-poll-senate-texas/
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578
A new poll released Thursday morning showed Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has stabilized his lead over his Democrat challenger, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso.
Fifty-four percent of Texans backed Cruz, while 45 percent backed O'Rourke in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
The poll also shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with a prohibitive lead over his Democratic rival, former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, 58 percent to 38 percent.
Strikingly, while Valdez and O'Rourke have consolidated support among African Americans, Abbott and Cruz garnered sizable Hispanic support. Cruz had the backing of 37 percent of Hispanic respondents while nearly half of Hispanics surveyed — 46 percent — supported Abbott.
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/11/cruz-orourke-poll-senate-texas/
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578
278
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:39pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:39pm
LeonDurham says
I'm confident that there will be no Blue Wave, hence this thread.
I'm also willing to put $500 on it. Are you?
"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.
I'm betting for CONTROL of both houses (aka Blue Wave). But you seem to doubt it will happen , hence you're not accepting the bet?
Doesn't sound like you're too confident.
I'm confident that there will be no Blue Wave, hence this thread.
I'm also willing to put $500 on it. Are you?
"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.
I'm betting for CONTROL of both houses (aka Blue Wave). But you seem to doubt it will happen , hence you're not accepting the bet?
279
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 4:45pm
Goran_K says
Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote. It most definitely means something.
Yes, I highly doubt the Dems will win the Senate. It's a longshot.
"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.
Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote. It most definitely means something.
Yes, I highly doubt the Dems will win the Senate. It's a longshot.
280
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:47pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:47pm
LeonDurham says
Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".
That makes me happy.
Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote.
Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".
That makes me happy.
281
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 4:52pm
Goran_K says
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".
That makes me happy.
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
282
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:53pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 4:53pm
LeonDurham says
And if they don't? Will you disappear or change your screen name again joey/tatupu/leon?
I'm happy for the 2 SCOTUS picks, 29 judges for the United States Courts of Appeals, 53 judges for the United States District Courts, and 49 Federal Judge appointments that will ALL be confirmed by next week.
All of whom will help deny anymore SJW/Dem/Socialist insanity.
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
And if they don't? Will you disappear or change your screen name again joey/tatupu/leon?
I'm happy for the 2 SCOTUS picks, 29 judges for the United States Courts of Appeals, 53 judges for the United States District Courts, and 49 Federal Judge appointments that will ALL be confirmed by next week.
All of whom will help deny anymore SJW/Dem/Socialist insanity.
283
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 4:56pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Oct 12, 4:56pm
LeonDurham says
They'll finally be able to get Trump on all that Russian Collusion evidence that Mueller has.
But I think Americans won't fall for that Democratic Okie-Dokie.
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
They'll finally be able to get Trump on all that Russian Collusion evidence that Mueller has.
But I think Americans won't fall for that Democratic Okie-Dokie.
284
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 4:58pm
Bd6r
2018 Oct 12, 4:58pm
Goran_K says
I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.
I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.
I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.
285
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 5:00pm
Goran_K
2018 Oct 12, 5:00pm
dr6B says
Yes, but the "blue wave" was supposed to be an over take of both houses.
The senate (we all know) is lost.
The house is the actual real battle. But the funny thing is, it should not be a battle. Incumbents have only kept it 4 times in US History. But for some reason, it's gotten so close again.
I wonder why!
I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.
Yes, but the "blue wave" was supposed to be an over take of both houses.
The senate (we all know) is lost.
The house is the actual real battle. But the funny thing is, it should not be a battle. Incumbents have only kept it 4 times in US History. But for some reason, it's gotten so close again.
I wonder why!
286
RC2006
2018 Oct 12, 5:01pm
RC2006
2018 Oct 12, 5:01pm
Even on NPR they think democrats fucked up and energized Republicans over SC drama.
287
LeonDurham
2018 Oct 12, 5:03pm
Goran_K says
"supposed" What the hell does that mean? It's always been almost impossible for Dems to win the Senate--even in a blue tsunami it's a tall order.
Yes, but the "blue wave" was supposed to be an over take of both houses.
"supposed" What the hell does that mean? It's always been almost impossible for Dems to win the Senate--even in a blue tsunami it's a tall order.
« First « Previous Comments 248 - 287 of 699 Next » Last » Search these comments
Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.