patrick.net

CBOEtrader says

No you are missing boorish critique. You suggest it is hypocrisy to agree w nate on some predictions and not agree on others. This is as illogical as an observation gets.

It is hypocrisy. Nate isn't offering his opinion, he has created a model to analyze many factors (including polling) to offer predictions in the form of probabilities.

Someone who touts the model when it says what they want it to say but then calls the model nonsense when it says the opposite of what they want is absolutely hypocrisy.

HappyGilmore says

The generic ballot is probably the most important poll there is. It affects every race across the country. Obviously some more than others, but it's not a local effect.

No it does not. Whether it's D+20 or R+20, New York's 16th and California's 34th is gonna go Deep Blue and Texas's 11th and Georgia's 9th is gonna be Deep Red.

If there's 20% more turnout in those districts, suddenly, nothing changes.

HappyGilmore says

Someone who touts the model when it says what they want it to say but then calls the model nonsense when it says the opposite of what they want is absolutely hypocrisy.

THE MODEL will have different inputs in different situations. Each variable will require some level of human judgement.

Like I said, NS is irrelevant more so than just being wrong.

CBOEtrader says

Like I said, NS is irrelevant more so than just being wrong.

lol--538 is the gold standard of political analysis.

There really isn't anything else close.

HappyGilmore says

lol--538 is the gold standard of political analysis.

Lol, only to people who want to believe in biased fantasies.

538 is a joke to people who think critically.

Anybody remember Handel is Georgia's 6th? And all the money and time Hollywood, the Media, and Big Tech was dumped into it?

"Neck and Neck" pollsters crowed. Some gave had Handel down by 10pts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/20/new-forecast-only-a-55-chance-that-jon-ossoff-wins-georgias-house-special-election/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3c73d2103783

Hell some said Ossoff wasn't even going to have to go to runoff elections, getting more than 50% in the first round.

Handel won by 3.5 pts.

CBOEtrader says

Like I said, NS is irrelevant more so than just being wrong.

That is true if you think the purpose of NS is to make accurate predictions. If accuracy was the real goal, NS would not be taken seriously at all.

NS purpose is to give info that certain people want to hear, specifically fund raisers. Much easier to raise campaign funds for a likely winner than to raise campaign funds for a likely loser. Also, easier to get donations in general for the likely winner since many donors want to be investing in the winning side. Tell them what they want to hear all along, then claim the "probability" and "margin of error" excuses when outright wrong.

HappyGilmore says

lol--538 is the gold standard of political analysis.

There really isn't anything else close.

and for the WIN, Nate's Electoral College prediction:



and what the Official Electoral College Results were:



Hey, Tatty/JoeyJoey/Happy/, any question?

HappyGilmore says

lol--538 is the gold standard of political analysis.

There really isn't anything else close.

Why You Should Never, Ever Listen To Nate Silver.
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/why-you-should-never-ever-listen-to-nate-silver

A whole list of WRONG predictions and statements by Nate at that link, way to many to copy and paste. Hey Tatty/Joey/Happy.... enjoy!!

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying
https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/nate-silvers-very-very-wrong-predictions-about-donald-t-1788583912

The terrifying uncertainty at the heart of FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasts
The myth of the election prediction wizard is no more.
https://www.vox.com/2018/10/24/18009356/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-2018-forecast-analysis

Nate Silver Blew It Bigly on the Election – Can His Brand Recover?
“Nate was arrogant. His numbers were all over the place. The title of ‘guru’ is now gone,”
https://www.thewrap.com/nate-silver-blew-it-bigly-on-the-election-can-his-brand-recover/

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Anybody remember Handel is Georgia's 6th? And all the money and time Hollywood, the Media, and Big Tech was dumped into it?

"Neck and Neck" pollsters crowed. Some gave had Handel down by 10pts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/20/new-forecast-only-a-55-chance-that-jon-ossoff-wins-georgias-house-special-election/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3c73d2103783

Hell some said Ossoff wasn't even going to have to go to runoff elections, getting more than 50% in the first round.

Handel won by 3.5 pts.

I remember.

I remember certain posters in this thread talking lots of shit about how Ossof was going to win big.

Maybe they will eat their crow but I doubt it.

CBOEtrader says

Add in the fact that these polls are basically just propaganda to show how unpopular wrong thinkers are, and these polls are total garbage.

As politically motivated as I am, I have no time for polls. They always take way too long to complete, and I’m suspicious of the way the questions are worded as well as what they’ll do with the information.

In this age of real consequences for stated political opinions, I think most people are far more comfortable expressing their will in the privacy of a voting booth.

Goran_K says

I remember certain posters in this thread talking lots of shit about how Ossof was going to win big.

And when he lost, crowing about how the Democrats upped their vote total ---- in an open seat, with tons of positive media coverage of Ossof, and the most spent on any Congressional Race in US History.

personal

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

And when he lost, crowing about how the Democrats upped their vote total ---- in an open seat, with tons of positive media coverage of Ossof, and the most spent on any Congressional Race in US History.

lol--it's a Republican +12 district!

Does more money change the demographics of the district?

Hey Happy, be a little less "happy" about dishing out personal insults or I'm going to be happy to nuke your posts.

Thanks!

HeadSet says

NS purpose is to give info that certain people want to hear, specifically fund raisers. Much easier to raise campaign funds for a likely winner than to raise campaign funds for a likely loser. Also, easier to get donations in general for the likely winner since many donors want to be investing in the winning side. Tell them what they want to hear all along, then claim the "probability" and "margin of error" excuses when outright wrong.

lol--so does 538 predicting Republican 85% likely to win Senate fit that narrative?

Why do Trump supporters hate facts and data?

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Anybody remember Handel is Georgia's 6th? And all the money and time Hollywood, the Media, and Big Tech was dumped into it?

"Neck and Neck" pollsters crowed. Some gave had Handel down by 10pts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/20/new-forecast-only-a-55-chance-that-jon-ossoff-wins-georgias-house-special-election/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3c73d2103783

Hell some said Ossoff wasn't even going to have to go to runoff elections, getting more than 50% in the first round.

Handel won by 3.5 pts.

I remember. Nobody had Handel down 10 points. Handel was pretty much always ahead in the polling and was expected to narrowly win. All the money spent there actually hurt Ossof because it increased Republican turnout. And it's tough to win a Republican +12 district when folks turn out.

lol, so spending more money on an election hurts the person spending the money?
hahaha ok

personal

personal

personal

Happy, seriously. Take a chill pill. You're way too fired up. Subtract the emotions, stop with the personal stuff. Thanks.

antiforum

antiforum

I provided a link to the pre-show gloating.

Sorry to miss the insults, it's a sure sign of #winning

Someone aid to me: "Conservatives just get the message: show up, vote, and go home. It gets the job done."

Trends NOT looking good for Dems.

Less than 24 hours ago, it stood at 43% Rep to 41% Dem registered votes casting Early/Mail In ballots.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/24-million-early-voting-ballots-already-counted-more-2014-n929421

Does this look like there is a problem with enthusiasm, that the Republican Voters are all depressed and staying home?


As for "Our Models are based on History"


It looks a lot like 2014.

What happened in 2014? The Republicans gained 13 seats in the House and took back the Senate.

My Prediction:

Dems win a few toss up seats, maybe a surprise or two, but don't pickup more 20 seats in the House and probably less. I call low teens, mostly in states already largely blue like California perhaps the odd urban area in a Red State

The Dems that do win win by a hair and have to be very careful in the next couple of years. 1-2% winners can't be all "Impeach! Abolish ICE!"

Republicans win at least 2 Senate Seats.

The Dems are trying are Left instead of Centrist strategy in Arizona and Florida by running Sinema and Gillum. Their defeat will also empower normies and hurt the SJWs.

The increasing dependence on Dems for Urban Minorities and SFBA/Brooklyn/Boston Snobs will continue to hurt the party in the long run as the won't be able to Play to Peoria. Anything less than blaming Whites and Males will be seen as traitorous.

After being sick today and trolling around the rest of the internet, I find articles by the MSM to be blatantly insulting. I also see that not only am I not the only one that sees it this way, but judging by online comments, so do a whole bunch of people including moderate and former liberal democrats.

Not sure my read is super correct, but I'd say do not be surprised if the polls are dead wrong, and the Republicans hold both the house and senate.

CovfefeButDeadly says

I find articles by the MSM to be blatantly insulting.

Like this one: Nationalism is the Breaking Point for Suburban Voters.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump%E2%80%99s-nationalism-is-breaking-point-for-some-suburban-voters-risking-gop-coalition/ar-BBPergt?li=BBnbfcP

I can't be the only one over 30 that learned the actual dictionary definition of Nationalism in School? If so, I seriously doubt "Nationalism" is a breaking point for anybody but a far leftist, or somebody freshly indoctrinated in College.

I actually thought the GOP would lose the house and voiced my concerns about historic trends.

But the early voting shows the GOP base is fired up. If the GOP keeps the house we should all send money to Feinstein for her next re-election campaign. Maybe some thank you letters to Liawatha Warren.

I have just added my energy to the red wave.

Why wouldn't there be a red wave?

Do most working American's (of any race) want unfettered illegal immigration to push down wages?

Do most American men want a society where any man can be accused at any time of sexual misconduct? We are not talking about actual victims or rape here, we are talking about a bar so low that a women touched on top of clothes is now a "survivor." Real women used to deal with an overly forward guy with a stern "hands off!" or a face slap. Virtually all men have in their youth have been in the situation where they slid a hand under a blouse during a necking session, only to have the girl pull your hand out, but continue to to neck anyway. Is this girl now a "survivor," since she did not want to go that far yet, and 10 years later she can testify against you for being a groper?

Do women want their men and male children to be subject to this new "misconduct" threat? Or for men to be come so passive that the only way she will be fondled is the grab his hand and place it on her boob?

HeadSet says

Virtually all men have in their youth have been in the situation where they slid a hand under a blouse during a necking session, only to have the girl pull your hand out, but continue to to neck anyway. Is this girl now a "survivor," since she did not want to go that far yet, and 10 years later she can testify against you for being a groper?

A drunk woman grabbed my ass in a hotel a few years ago. Instead of just calmly informing her that I am not interested, I should have sued hotel, created organizations such as Hands Off My Ass, and started #myasstoo campaign on twatter.

Aphroman says

Which Republicans are running on a platform different from Democrats wrt how society treats sexual activity?

Pussyhat and #metoo nonsense comes from D's

Voted R straight down the Ticket, from Governor to Senate to House/

And the County Commissioners are all Ds and the biggest sneaks ever. They wanted to give the Ethics Inspector "Discretion" to choose what cases to investigate instead of having to investigate everything.