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Ponzi Sche.. Err Tesla, Coming Undone


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2018 Aug 17, 11:23am   23,244 views  211 comments

by fdhfoiehfeoi   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

You may think I'm exaggerating, but what else do you call a company that is largely supported by government programs, and requires you to pay up front for a car you may never get?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/17/tesla-tumbles-3point5-percent-ahead-of-elon-musks-reported-meeting-with-sec.html

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102   fdhfoiehfeoi   2018 Aug 20, 9:48am  

Strategist says
No such company in America.


See above about paying and not receiving. As to government subsidies:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html

Yes it's old, but just pulled the first one from the list.
103   fdhfoiehfeoi   2018 Aug 20, 9:53am  

Strategist says
Musk deserves another $10 billion in subsidies.


Since you're in the giving mood about throwing just one billion my way? You know, because giving people money is always a sure sign they're successful.

104   fdhfoiehfeoi   2018 Aug 20, 9:56am  

Evan F. says
Lol where the hell are you getting this? Pretty much everyone who buys a Model S is someone who acknowledges that climate change is real, and they're willing to pay a premium to do something about it, in addition to feeling smug about it.


105   fdhfoiehfeoi   2018 Aug 20, 10:21am  

MrBark says
I'm never going back to daily driving a gas car.


Hate to burst your bubble on this but:

106   EBGuy   2018 Aug 20, 12:12pm  

clambo says
The car subsidy is going down in 2019

Electric rates are also going up for many folks unless they can shift their demand to off peak times. This is tricky, as it also represents an opportunity for the PowerWall product.
Starting in 2019, time-of-use rates (TOU) will become mandatory for all San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) customers. These new TOU rates will be less favorable to solar customers than current TOU rates, due to peak pricing periods later in the day.
PG&E is currently experimenting with TOU rate schedules and will be rolling them out for all customers in the 2020 time frame.
107   bob2356   2018 Aug 20, 12:15pm  

Evan F. says
As others have said here, a Model 3 is most comparable to a BMW 3 series or Audi A4. If you grenade a motor on one of those cars, you are most definitely looking at repairs in the 10k region. And both of those cars only carry warranties of 4yrs/50k miles.


Pretty much the only way to grenade a modern engine is to leave the oil drain open. Since leaded gas (highly oil contaminating and corrosive) went out 250-300k is the norm for any engine that has regular oil changes. My sjuburban is at 370k and going just fine.
108   RWSGFY   2018 Aug 20, 12:17pm  

bob2356 says
Pretty much the only way to grenade a modern engine is to leave the oil drain open.


Pretty much. But with BMW M3 there is also the famous "money shift". ;)
109   Evan F.   2018 Aug 20, 1:39pm  

AntiOcasioCortez says
What subsidies?


Massive tax breaks and deferrals. It's not 'subsidies' in name, but it's corporate welfare all the same.
110   MrMagic   2018 Aug 21, 9:29am  

DASKAA says
MrMagic says
Why do they have production defects if they just left the factory??? Hmmmm...


Pretty common practice at other automakers. GM specifically.


Really???

Common???

86% Of Model 3s Produced to Meet Tesla's 5,000/Week Goal Needed Rework

Internal documents revealed by Business insider disclose that Tesla had to re-work over 4,300 of the much discussed 5,000 Model 3 vehicles it built in June, and later touted as a production target milestone.

The same report also gives those closely following the Tesla saga additional color what the term "factory gated" could mean. One would guess that Musk can't put most of these 5,000 vehicles - about 20% of which were built in Tesla's GA4 assembly tent - on the road, when more than 86% of them need to be reworked. Internal documents revealed that these reworks came during the week of June 23 and that each one took about 37 minutes to complete.

As a result, instead of 5,000 new vehicles out on the streets, most were likely "factory gated". In other words, they needed to be fixed.

What is also troubling is that the company's "first pass yield", or the number of vehicles that made their way through the manufacturing process without needing rework, was anemic.

The normal range for the auto industry is between 65% and 80%, according to experts cited in the BI article. Using the numbers provided, Tesla's first pass yield was less than 14%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-21/86-model-3s-produced-meet-teslas-5000week-goal-needed-rework

But, but, but... you save so much money on gas when you pay DOUBLE for such a nice, quality vehicle. Oh, and that acceleration....

LOL
111   RWSGFY   2018 Aug 21, 10:14am  

MrMagic says
DASKAA says
MrMagic says
Why do they have production defects if they just left the factory??? Hmmmm...


Pretty common practice at other automakers. GM specifically.


Really???

Common???


Yep. Really-really. Talk to anyone who worked at GM plants and they will tell you the stories of fixing cars on the lots after they exit the assembly line. Now, Toyota, Honda and such don't do this, because they prefer to stop the line and fix the issue right there, production numbers be damned.
112   MrMagic   2018 Aug 21, 10:19am  

DASKAA says
Talk to anyone who worked at GM plants and they will tell you the stories of fixing cars on the lots after they exit the assembly line.


Nobody said it NEVER happens at other manufactures.... but..

MrMagic says
The normal range for the auto industry is between 65% and 80%, according to experts cited in the BI article. Using the numbers provided, Tesla's first pass yield was less than 14%.


So, normally 65% - 80% come off the line fine, on average, but Tesla's only have less than 14% that come of the line fine.

That's not an issue??
113   RWSGFY   2018 Aug 21, 10:24am  

MrMagic says
DASKAA says
Talk to anyone who worked at GM plants and they will tell you the stories of fixing cars on the lots after they exit the assembly line.


Nobody said it NEVER happens at other manufactures.... but..

MrMagic says
The normal range for the auto industry is between 65% and 80%, according to experts cited in the BI article. Using the numbers provided, Tesla's first pass yield was less than 14%.


So, normally 65% - 80% come off the line fine, on average, but Tesla's only have less than 14% that come of the line fine.

That's not an issue??


We could compare these numbers with the numbers for other automakers in early stages of producing completely new model on a brand-new assembly line. If we had them. As it stands now we have no base to compare. It could be normal or it could be highly anomalous. If you have said numbers for other manufacturers in similar stage of production, do share.
114   bob2356   2018 Aug 21, 11:10am  

DASKAA says
We could compare these numbers with the numbers for other automakers in early stages of producing completely new model on a brand-new assembly line. I


Existing car companies are producing new models all the time and the overall number is 65-80%. Automakers have been at this a long time and know where the pitfalls are.
115   RWSGFY   2018 Aug 21, 11:28am  

bob2356 says
Existing car companies are producing new models all the time and the overall number is 65-80%


The overall number across the industry is as informative as average body temperature across a county. Do we have the number (specifically) for the first several months of (specifically) brand-new model on a (specifically) brand-new assembly line?
116   MrMagic   2018 Aug 21, 11:35am  

DASKAA says
Do we have the number (specifically) for the first several months of (specifically) brand-new model on a (specifically) brand-new assembly line?


Google.com maybe?
117   RWSGFY   2018 Aug 21, 11:38am  

MrMagic says
DASKAA says
Do we have the number (specifically) for the first several months of (specifically) brand-new model on a (specifically) brand-new assembly line?


Google.com maybe?


Maybe.
118   CBOEtrader   2018 Aug 21, 12:24pm  

MrMagic says
Oh, and that acceleration....


Is there a comparable gas car that you can bang a rin-style hooker on the way to dinner?

I'd pay like 30% more for a Ford Raptor that drove itself
119   Strategist   2018 Aug 21, 1:17pm  

NuttBoxer says
Strategist says
Musk deserves another $10 billion in subsidies.


Since you're in the giving mood about throwing just one billion my way? You know, because giving people money is always a sure sign they're successful.


Sure, not a problem. I have lots of $billions to give away.
120   Strategist   2018 Aug 21, 1:29pm  

DASKAA says

Yep. Really-really. Talk to anyone who worked at GM plants and they will tell you the stories of fixing cars on the lots after they exit the assembly line. Now, Toyota, Honda and such don't do this, because they prefer to stop the line and fix the issue right there, production numbers be damned.


Back in 2005 when my kids were still young, we needed to replace a Mini van. We liked the Toyota Sienna, but decided to check out the Dodge Caravan anyway. We get in the car, and the thing won't start. LOL. They called the battery guy, who came running to give us a jump. On the test drive, the van was rickety and made too much noise.
We ended up with the Sienna even though it cost a lot more. Never had regrets.
Rotten car companies. Rotten Detroit workers. Cheap quality. That's what American car companies usually are. No wonder they always need a taxpayer bailout. The electric cars made by American companies seem pretty good, but I still don't trust them. I trust Tesla only.
121   Strategist   2018 Aug 21, 1:35pm  

CBOEtrader says
Is there a comparable gas car that you can bang a rin-style hooker on the way to dinner?

I'd pay like 30% more for a Ford Raptor that drove itself


A Limo should do it. More leg room when she spreads them or goes on her knees.
122   EBGuy   2018 Aug 21, 1:40pm  

Strategist says
Back in 2005 when my kids were still young, we needed to replace a Mini van.

Too bad this was not around "back in the day". Looks like you can get 33 miles all on electricity.
We opted for the 2018 Limited Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid model, and after all was said and done, it came to $43K. We got the full $7,500 federal tax credit and the $500 rebate from the state of Connecticut, bringing the cost to $35K... Our 10- and 13-year-old kids helped us out and did the math, concluding that we can get two Chevy Bolts and one Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid for the cost of one Tesla X.
123   WookieMan   2018 Aug 21, 2:01pm  

MrMagic says
I'm sure that acceleration really comes in handy when sitting in bumper to bumper traffic on a CA Freeway.


So the only time Tesla owners drive is during the busiest times and only on the freeway? And they never get to use that acceleration?

Like I said, I dislike Musk and won't be buying an EV vehicle anytime soon unless they can start getting 400 miles/charge consistently and can charge in the same time it takes to fuel up. That said, it's a nice car. Saying otherwise makes it apparent one hasn't driven one. Someone can have an opinion about a product, but if someone hasn't used said product, or experienced it, their opinion is kind of trash.
124   RWSGFY   2018 Aug 21, 2:03pm  

WookieMan says
MrMagic says
I'm sure that acceleration really comes in handy when sitting in bumper to bumper traffic on a CA Freeway.


So the only time Tesla owners drive is during the busiest times and only on the freeway? And they never get to use that acceleration?


Teslas are eligible for HOV stickers. So they can use that acceleration while flying past bumper-to-bumper traffic on a CA freeway. And pay 1/2 of the bridge toll.
125   MrMagic   2018 Aug 21, 2:04pm  

WookieMan says
So the only time Tesla owners drive is during the busiest times and only on the freeway? And they never get to use that acceleration?


That's true, I'm sure they get to use all that acceleration as they race through downtown LA, right?

Oh, wait...

WookieMan says
That said, it's a nice car.


How do you know if you don't own one?

WookieMan says
Someone can have an opinion about a product, but if someone hasn't used said product, or experienced it, their opinion is kind of trash.


Just like you posted above?
126   RobDawg   2018 Aug 21, 2:08pm  

Preston Tucker. Except Tucker could deliver.
127   WookieMan   2018 Aug 21, 2:10pm  

MrMagic says
WookieMan says
That said, it's a nice car.


How do you know if you don't own one?


What are you talking about? Never said I owned one. I have ACTUALLY driven one. Multiple times. Enough to know it's a nice car. Have you driven one? Yes or no? If not, your opinion is as bad as the Musk fan boys that tout the car and have NEVER driven it.

Like I said, I have ZERO intention of buying one in the near future. I like my gassers. I also know when I encounter a good product. I'm more frugal and will wait for prices to come down. I'm not going to burn the product down without ever having used it. I guess people like to do that nowadays.
128   MrMagic   2018 Aug 21, 2:22pm  

WookieMan says
I have ZERO intention of buying one in the near future. I like my gassers.


Me too.

Look at that, we agree on something, you can now relax.
129   WookieMan   2018 Aug 21, 2:38pm  

MrMagic says
WookieMan says
I have ZERO intention of buying one in the near future. I like my gassers.


Me too.

Look at that, we agree on something, you can now relax.


We agree on more than you think. Don't fool yourself.

And don't worry, I'm 1,000% relaxed. I don't recall what you said you did, but if I bashed your company or product without having used it, you would take offense. This is undeniable. I'm not defending Musk, just the practice of humans trashing shit they've never used or experienced. Don't believe everything you read. I'm sure GM, Ford, Toyota, Nissan, etc are all on board with Tesla doing well. They would NEVER try to trash the competition. They want Tesla to take their market share and would love to write nice articles about them.
130   MrMagic   2018 Aug 21, 2:47pm  

WookieMan says
I don't recall what you said you did, but if I bashed your company or product without having used it, you would take offense. This is undeniable. I'm not defending Musk, just the practice of humans trashing shit they've never used or experienced.


I've been bashing the company (you know, the title of this thread) and the snake oil salesman Musk, more than the car. I've only referenced certain points to push back against the Tesla fanboys here, who can't see reality because of their rose colored Tesla glasses. They're just as bad as the Apple fanboys..

For what it's worth, I worked for a start-up car company in the past (remember DeLorean), so I've seen these start-up quality issues before. With Tesla, it's way too early to see if these quality issues come back to bite them in the ass. My guess, the company won't be around to address them, and the Tesla fanboys will be left holding the bag.
131   WookieMan   2018 Aug 21, 3:00pm  

MrMagic says
They're just as bad as the Apple fanboys.


Apple has solid products. This is undeniable. Call them fanboys or you can call them people that like good products.

MrMagic says
I've been bashing the company (you know, the title of this thread) and the snake oil salesman Musk, more than the car.


He's the CEO of a public company. WTF would you expect him to do? "Hey, you know what, 5 years down the road this might not work out." EVERY CEO is a snake oil salesman. Every single one. That's job number 1. There's not ONE company that has a 100% perfect and foolproof product. You have to sugarcoat the shit sometimes.

MrMagic says
For what it's worth, I worked for a start-up car company in the past (remember DeLorean), so I've seen these start-up quality issues before.


Yes, of course there will be startup quality issues. Somehow Ford is still around though. They started up and still make some pretty crappy cars 100 years later. We can't just slash and burn every new company that tries to build a car though. Especially one that will pave the future for others even if they don't stay around. EV's make a shitload more sense then gassers. Their time just hasn't come yet. Like I said, not a fan of Musk. His ego gets in his own way too much.
132   MrMagic   2018 Aug 21, 3:15pm  

WookieMan says
Apple has solid products. This is undeniable.


Yep, that's why everyone needs to pay TWICE the amount for them so they can send email, watch cat video's and post on Patnet.

WookieMan says
Call them fanboys or you can call them people that like good products.


Or. call them fools for paying DOUBLE for the same product made by someone else to do the same thing...hmmm, like a Tesla...

WookieMan says
Yes, of course there will be startup quality issues


Yep, when less than 14% roll off the line with no quality issues (as reported), just a hickup... noting to see here... Please tell me where I can pay DOUBLE for one of these gems.

WookieMan says
EV's make a shitload more sense then gassers. Their time just hasn't come yet.


Hmmmm, then they DON'T make sense yet, NOW...

WookieMan says
Like I said, not a fan of Musk. His ego gets in his own way too much.


Look at that, we agree again... stop the clock....
133   Evan F.   2018 Aug 21, 3:24pm  

MrMagic says
Yep, that's why everyone needs to pay TWICE the amount for them so they can send email, watch cat video's and post on Patnet.

Twice? That's a bit of a stretch. You do pay a premium for Apple products, sure, but not double. Galaxy S9 retails for like $700, iPhone X is $900-1000. And that's just in the handset space. For awhile the iMac 5k represented a BETTER value than any possible PC configuration, simply because it was impossible to get a standalone 5k monitor for less than like $1000.

Again, Apple's pricey. But on balance, not double.
134   MrMagic   2018 Aug 21, 3:28pm  

Evan F. says
Twice? That's a bit of a stretch.


Nope, you're cherry picking, you need to look across the whole product line: phones, iPads, Laptops, iPods, and everything else Apple has made.


Evan F. says
But on balance, not double.


True, sometimes MORE than double.
135   Strategist   2018 Aug 21, 3:29pm  

WookieMan says
MrMagic says
WookieMan says
I have ZERO intention of buying one in the near future. I like my gassers.


Me too.

Look at that, we agree on something, you can now relax.


We agree on more than you think. Don't fool yourself.

And don't worry, I'm 1,000% relaxed. I don't recall what you said you did, but if I bashed your company or product without having used it, you would take offense. This is undeniable. I'm not defending Musk, just the practice of humans trashing shit they've never used or experienced. Don't believe everything you read. I'm sure GM, Ford, Toyota, Nissan, etc are all on board with Tesla doing well. They would NEVER try to trash the competition. They want Tesla to take their market share and would love to write nice articles about them.


It's not just the other car companies caught with their pants down that dislike Tesla. Big Oil hates Tesla even more. How would you feel if someone came along and completely destroyed your $trillions?
Elon Musk is a devil to oil companies, and a God to environmentalists.
136   Strategist   2018 Aug 21, 3:33pm  

Evan F. says
MrMagic says
Yep, that's why everyone needs to pay TWICE the amount for them so they can send email, watch cat video's and post on Patnet.

Twice? That's a bit of a stretch. You do pay a premium for Apple products, sure, but not double. Galaxy S9 retails for like $700, iPhone X is $900-1000. And that's just in the handset space. For awhile the iMac 5k represented a BETTER value than any possible PC configuration, simply because it was impossible to get a standalone 5k monitor for less than like $1000.

Again, Apple's pricey. But on balance, not double.


I would argue Apple works out cheaper even with a higher price tag, because they work better, last longer, look prettier, and upgrades are free.
137   WookieMan   2018 Aug 21, 3:50pm  

Strategist says
I would argue Apple works out cheaper even with a higher price tag, because they work better, last longer, look prettier, and upgrades are free.


This. Lasts longer. And is better.

Your Best Buy basic PC/laptop will be LUCKY to last 2-3 years functioning at "new" level. I've got a 10 year old MacBook that I use for recording drums, which is one of the larger undertakings you can do on a basic laptop. Current configuration is 12 tracks simultaneously. Not a chance in hell a 10 year old PC/laptop could keep up with that. This isn't debatable unless you've got some ridiculous setup (PC) that's never been connected to the internet.

Bottom line, that MacBook 10 years ago was about $1,000. Put in some increased RAM to the tune of $150 about 5 years ago to knock it up to 16gb. Still works as well as the day I took it out of the box. You'd probably end up with 3 Windows laptops over this same period of time, probably costing more than $500 over the single MacBook.

I don't equate this to Tesla at this point though. It's too young. Apple on the other hand, has a proven track record of successful products that work. There's going to be a biggest/wealthiest company in the world. And some people will just never understand why they got there or despise the success for some reason. They'll just trash it having never used a single product. It's like saying sex isn't fun yet you're still a virgin.
138   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 21, 3:56pm  

Except, like my Macbook, after a few years Apple refuses to support it, there are no updates for critical programs.
139   Evan F.   2018 Aug 21, 4:00pm  

Strategist says
I would argue Apple works out cheaper even with a higher price tag, because they work better, last longer, look prettier, and upgrades are free.

And much, MUCH higher resale on the secondary market. My MBP late 2013 could still fetch like $800. Any PC from 2013 would be a glorified doorstop in terms of resale.
140   WookieMan   2018 Aug 21, 4:04pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Except, like my Macbook, after a few years Apple refuses to support it, there are no updates for critical programs.


My 10 year old MacBook just got locked out of OS updates. So you're right. But it still functions very well for what I need it to do though. Ain't no PC doing that. I can still run the entire Adobe Creative Suite on it, check email, browse the internet and other basic things. It mainly sits in my basement now for recording, but the thing was used for 6 years as a primary work machine (graphics, marketing, etc) and worked amazingly. And it still works like a champ simultaneously recording 12 drum tracks. That's no small feat on a 10 year old machine.

Prior to my Mac time, it was a PC tower or laptop every 3 years without a doubt. None of that shit would last 3 years and I still don't think it will. Wife's work laptop is already shit after 2-1/2 years.
141   MrBark   2018 Aug 21, 5:11pm  

If any of this quality logic held any water, all of my Audis and BMWs would be the most reliable and well engineered cars on the planet. They're just depreciation pits with over-engineered bullshit that aren't designed to be easily serviceable. Look at the used prices of $80k new BMWs/Audis in 2012 vs $80k new Tesla in 2012.

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