patrick.net

Patrick says

And the median time before death in a nursing home is 5 months.

Yup... Few will report these stats though. I'm not sure why?

They have the data, but I'd like to see how many were already on oxygen as well as a percentage. Someone needing oxygen to live is highly unlikely to make it through pneumonia. Frankly it's probably a waste of time and is a likely death sentence. But hey, if they're still alive you can extract $$$$ from them. They still get SS and may have other money.

I'm still sick of the needle in the haystack stories of young people passing. My wife's cousin died at 37 from a brain aneurism a couple years back. Shit happens that we don't know is coming anyway. The virus may accelerate that in a tiny faction of young people, but this has been the most overhyped thing I've seen in my life.

In NYC, 72% of deaths are in the 65 and up age group, but even in that group, if you don't have an underlying condition, the deaths are minuscule. About half of the deaths are in the 75 an older population with co-morbidities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

willywonka says

In NYC, 72% of deaths are in the 65 and up age group, but even in that group, if you don't have an underlying condition, the deaths are minuscule. About half of the deaths are in the 75 an older population with co-morbidities.

Extreme poor health in high density living quarters is locking down the entire country basically. It's a bad joke at this point. There are so many shitty nursing homes out there that the homes themselves are likely more dangerous through care and kill more than this fucking virus.

WookieMan says

Yup... Few will report these stats though. I'm not sure why?

It doesn't make OrangeManBad.

WookieMan says

There are so many shitty nursing homes out there that the homes themselves are likely more dangerous through care and kill more than this fucking virus.

C. Dif. is a big killer, or at least a contributor.

Patrick says

And the median time before death in a nursing home is 5 months.

The average LOS is about 14 months. However, I know of patients who live in facilities 10+ years.

elliemae says

Patrick says

And the median time before death in a nursing home is 5 months.

The average LOS is about 14 months. However, I know of patients who live in facilities 10+ years.

Not trying to be combative, but Patrick mentioned the median, not the average. If half the people will die in less than 5 months, that means a lot are dying even quicker than that. Having some outliers stay for 10 years brings the average up. With this virus, the median is probably the better number to go off of in terms of concern.

And as I've said in other comments, I don't want anyone to die. But at what point is this out of our control to some extent? As sick as this sounds, once we burn through those on the bad side of the median, it essentially goes away and becomes a normal flu/virus that we just have to deal with. That's what is flattening the curve, not hiding and wearing masks.

Right, but that average is only that large because of a few who live for many years.

The median is much more relevant.

Half of nursing home patients die in less than 5 months.

Patrick says

Right, what wookieman said.

Lol. We responded almost instantaneously with the same thought.

Huh, comment time stamp seems to depend on your time zone.

Patrick says

Huh, comment time stamp seems to depend on your time zone.

I think only during the "live" comments so to speak. I think a refresh puts it back to yours or my time zone. Checking now.

Just did a refresh and your 9am or whatever turned into my timezone of 11am. So it's the immediate or live comments getting stamped that way and refresh fixes it.

Thanks, that gives a place to look to debug it.

Right if Trump doesn't act and fire fraudci and doesn't stop cops from harassing his voter base he could get into trouble.

Patrick, where did you get that stat from?

HEYYOU says

Where are the stats on RepCons dying?

Not tracked by political party affiliation.

I’m annoyed with the panic that the media is spreading, and how some politicians are using the pandemic as a pretext to destroy our economy and wealth. One political party wants people to be dependent on the government.

1. About 1/2 of the cases and deaths are in the NYC metropolitan area.
2. 95%+ of the cases are mild.
3. Most of the dead were both old and had a chronic illness or condition.
4. In my location, there is no pandemic, yet we are treated like criminals if we want to recreate outside.
5. Endless “heroes on the frontlines” bullshit; wear a mask, etc.
6. All of this could have been avoided by having everyone wear a mask in public places a month ago.

Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have no pandemic and just wore masks from the beginning.

clambo says

4. In my location, there is no pandemic, yet we are treated like criminals if we want to recreate outside.

Haven't had that yet so much in rural IL. Driving to Florida this weekend hopefully. So I'll get a taste of it in KY, TN, AL, GA and of course FL. Will be interesting to see how we're treated with out of state plates.

I do understand Median vs Average. But some patients are admitted to die. Some are admitted to get rehab and return home. Some are admitted for long term (custodial) care. So the numbers are skewed and really shouldn't be used as indicator of anything. Hospitals are sending patients to nursing homes to die to get them off their case mix, and nursing homes are sending them back for the same reason.

For example, of all of the Medicare rehabilitation patients admitted, at least 90% of them (my guess) has a length of stay of 20 days. After the nursing home has provided all of the skilled care they possibly can and they've been paid out the maximum rehab dollars, some of those patients decline rapidly and either go home on hospice, stay there on hospice and die, or are sent out to the hospital to get them off their patient list. Some patients are admitted to stay long term. Some others are admitted directly to die.

Life in So Utah is so fucked up. We do not understand social distancing - yesterday two people told me it's a hoax. While I do understand that this is horrible for the economy, and that people are getting restless, the reason it's not been horrible is that social distancing is working. I know that we in the west aren't seeing the numbers that were predicted, and I hope that holds. But I don't think so, with stuff like the links below. Maybe the lord will save them?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/residents-utah-counties-normal-lives-coronavirus-pandemic/story?id=70067101
https://www.stgeorgeutah.com/news/archive/2020/04/25/rmw-we-are-full-sand-hollow-closes-after-people-flood-to-the-park/#.XqXkki2ZORs

elliemae says

I do understand Median vs Average. But some patients are admitted to die. Some are admitted to get rehab and return home. Some are admitted for long term (custodial) care. So the numbers are skewed...

Unless you have reason to believe that this virus targets the “healthier” nursing home population at a disproportionate rate then the average nursing home resident that contracted this disease would have died in 5 months regardless.

In fact, to me it seems more likely this would disproportionately impact the less healthy residents. The resident in the home with dementia but is otherwise healthy and going to live ten years (bringing the average up) is more likely to be fine. So it would be reasonable to expect the average lifespan of nursing home residents dying from this disease is less then 5 months.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

Patrick, where did you get that stat from?

From some search with DuckDuckGo, didn't write down the url.

elliemae says

Life in So Utah is so fucked up. We do not understand social distancing - yesterday two people told me it's a hoax.

It's not a hoax. Some are politicizing it for sure which can lead people to think it's a hoax. It's real.

That said, I just don't think it's even remotely as severe as it's being made out to be. And even where it's deadly (New York), and my opinion is super sick admittedly, what are we going to do? This clearly is a virus that attacks old and weak people. So does the flu with a semi-effective vaccine. We may just have to face the reality it's an airborne virus that kills a small minority of the population and open back up. The alternative is far worse. And no, I don't want people's grandparents and parents to die. I know of 2 fatalities in IL already from the virus, though not personally. I also know of one suicide directly suspected to be from job loss and these events.

There's not right or wrong or winning in this conversation. We just have to make better decisions and in my opinion that is opening back up with restrictions for the people we know this kills. Even legal requirements. Old people are the one's openly defying stay at home orders from what I've physically seen when out.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-deaths-at-us-nursing-homes-reach-over-10000/

This says 10,000 and I imagine that’s a rough number, 49k deaths by April 24th, so that makes nursing homes accountable for 20% of the WuFlu mortality.