patrick.net

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/david-einhorn-sees-broken-markets-215311523.html

Deli worth 100 million.

Dogecoin meme coin up 6000%

These are warning signs.I thought large market correction with how retarded our gov is acting even if Trump won with the way money is being thrown around. Whatever is coming is much worse.

It's like we are in the same place before great depression, could another great war also be looming?

RC2006 says

zzyzzx says

Hey Patrick, now that you are retiring, have you started packing and filling up the moving truck?

That's what I was wondering, probably has more to do with wife.

She needs to finish her teaching certificate. Will just take until June, then we could move anywhere. I took at look at Texas, where I have a brother, but it's very hot and he's also going to retire and leave there. I have sisters in Michigan, which is an OK place. Also going to look at Washington State.

I'm very interested to see what happens with the smoke this summer. More big fires, and we're definitely out of here.

RC2006 says

money is being thrown around.

I just learned last night that the last stimy bill wasn't just a one time payment. It has monthly payments of $300/per kid or something for much of this year. I think it starts in May and ends in October.

We are so fucked. I don't want to live in a blue state when the shit really starts hitting the fan.

Patrick says

Also going to look at Washington State.

I love Washington! We used to summer on a little cabin on an Island in the Puget Sound. That was summertime and you could still see the sun 70% of the time. Winters are harsh, at least for a California boy.

Visit for a complete year before committing.

My wife and I are considering the Port Townsend area, top of Washington across from Victoria BC, to retire but I am not sure I could handle the winter.

RC2006 says

It's like we are in the same place before great depression, could another great war also be looming?

I also worry about those things, but can't do anything about them.

It's also possible that things will get much better.

If you don't mind longer winter so far boise has been nice. Don't know if you have kids but great place for them. Housing has blown up like CA.

At one time I was looking at TX but after a few months of traveling there for work I scratched that one off list.

Onvacation says

Port Townsend area, top of Washington across from Victoria BC

We actually spent a day there on our honeymoon long ago. I really liked it.

I recall that in Washington State there is a location with lower rainfall than the rest of the state.

Sequim, Washington is the place.

Annual Precipitation =15.43 inches

Compare to Santa Cruz CA 8.94 inches annual precipitation.

15 inches is still significantly more than the Bay Area.

It’s chilly however.

If you can handle humidity but want cheap prices, I'd consider Alabama or Mississippi in all honesty. Jackson, MS. Birmingham or Montgomery, AL. You get Cat 1 hurricanes winds occasionally. But if on high ground you'll be fine for flooding. Maybe get on a lake. Cooler winters, but not freezing outside of the occasional snow. Occasional tornados, but you're more likely to get physically hit by lightening than a house destroyed by tornado.

And yes, humid and buggy in the summer. But there's remedies for that. Cost of living is dirt cheap. You're 3-5 hours from the panhandle FL, the best sand on the planet. On calm days some nice blue/green water like the Caribbean or Southeast Asia.

I know it's a weird suggestion, but you'll make bank with your money there and can also travel during the super hot/humid months up to Michigan or somewhere else.

Thanks, it sounds good for winter in particular. Maybe we could do a northern state for the summers, and south in the winters.

It's all kind of surreal at the moment. Feels crazy to quit a perfectly good job, but I the numbers say I don't really need to stay.

I'm going to try not to count on anything all that much. "Man plans and God laughs."

WookieMan says

I'd consider Alabama

I thought it was nice there the weeks I was there for work. Only thing that bothered me a little bet was the mass amount of pollen that blanketed everything but I'm guessing thats a once a year thing.

RC2006 says

WookieMan says

I'd consider Alabama

I thought it was nice there the weeks I was there for work. Only thing that bothered me a little bet was the mass amount of pollen that blanketed everything but I'm guessing thats a once a year thing.

You are correct. I've never had allergies until I hit about 33. Mine are not bad, no OTC medicine needed, but I do notice it now. Pollen in AL is super bad, so good point.

You cannot deny the housing prices there though. Outside of the rough parts of cities, southern charm and niceness is a thing. People are super friendly or some might call it simple. USVI or PR somewhere is the first choice for me and then it's probably GA, AL or MS. I don't want to deal with hurricanes, so FL is probably out. I can deal with remnants of one, but I don't want to pay the insurance or the potential repairs if a Cat 3+ hits in the panhandle.

IL has humidity in the summer. The worst days are bad, but it's not that bad. I can handle it in the south. Bugs are the worst. Nothing a ceiling fan in a screened in porch can't handle. Or bug spray and just shower before bed.

clambo says

Sequim, Washington is the place.

Obligatory 90 Day Fiancée TV Show Mike reference.

WookieMan says

IL has humidity in the summer. The worst days are bad, but it's not that bad. I can handle it in the south. Bugs are the worst. Nothing a ceiling fan in a screened in porch can't handle. Or bug spray and just shower before bed.

I'm very familiar with summer humidity in IL and MI. And mosquitoes.

Right, a ceiling fan confuses them. Just leave it running slowly and they have a hard time finding you in the dark.

Patrick says

I'm very familiar with summer humidity in IL and MI.

I actually like humidity now. Natural sauna or steam more appropriately. Makes me sweat and keeps the weight down. As a taller guy my weight fluctuates, but I'll lose 10-15lbs in the spring getting the pool and yard ready for parties.

As a kid it sucked playing baseball in it or just being outside horsing around. I'm no longer in a "professional" field so to speak, so I can wear a polo, shorts and sandals now to jobs. Business attire or even pants in humidity is pretty bad as well. So it's easier as an adult too now.

Patrick says

Yes, that would work, but only after people started voting. The immediate problem is "surprise" images on the site. Maybe one gets uploaded and there are no votes yet, and you view the page, and OOPS boss is behind you somewhere.

Surprise images couldn't happen.

- The default threshold of 0 means "Show me all images, always. I don't care how people vote on images."
- User's who want some image filtering can enter a threshold greater than 0. The only way an image's value > 0 can be calculated is if the image actually receives votes. Basically, images that have no votes are still hidden (because w/o votes, the image's score is null, and null would not be greater than the user's threshold of say, 0.1. So the image stays hidden until it receives appropriate votes.)

I think the big uncertainty is will people actually vote. If there's very low vote participation, then anyone who turns on filtering by entering a threshold > 0, would rarely see images, because most images would have a null score. Of course, if the image is hidden, the user can click the "reveal image" button to look at it, if they feel safe. And hopefully they will then vote on it too.

So, while surprise images can't happen, trolls could vote wrong on purpose. However, I guess if that really became a problem, you could look at the vote table and see who the troll is. If there was decent vote participation, legit votes would drown out the troll vote pretty quickly.

Again, not saying its worth it. Personally, I would prob just turn off all images if I wanted to read at work.

WookieMan says

Patrick says

I'm very familiar with summer humidity in IL and MI.

I actually like humidity now. Natural sauna or steam more appropriately.

Sounds lovely. Lol, I stay put in SoCal with perfect weather. enjoy the sauna.

Bitcoin says

Sounds lovely. Lol, I stay put in SoCal with perfect weather. enjoy the sauna.

15 people say they don't give a shit. Respond to a comment. Patrick is looking for potential places to live if he were to decide to move out of CA (he should in my opinion). No one asked or cares where you live as no one has asked where you want to live or stay. We don't care. Add to the conversation intelligently.

Once a new spending level is hit, governments never decrease spending.

Biden has hit a new high of spending. This being about $5 trillion more than the Federal government pulls in through taxes. This is about 25% of the country's GDP. It is not even put on the country's "credit card" as the Fed just monetarizes it.

This is the "new normal".

It will last until suddenly it ceases to work.

People looking at the country's balance sheet would be astounded by how much money printing is needed.

I'm trying to adjust to Florida, but I miss California for the weather, scenery, history, etc.
I'm in one of the desirable areas, and the scuba diving is good, as is the beach and food.
It's kinda fun, and everyone I meet is from somewhere else, so we all figure out what to see and etc.
It's not hard to make new friends.
Otherwise, it can't compare to Santa Cruz.
If I didn't plan on traveling, I'd pay the taxes and stick it out maybe.
If I had a big pension, I wouldn't care about taxes and would probably stay.
I think that I couldn't be happy in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, for climate, culture, and other changes.
I could be happy in Texas because I have friends there and I always have fun, but I would miss beach and scuba diving.
My plan before I departed California was to spend considerable time in Baja Sur, Mexico , so I can still do that although my tax address is Florida.

clambo says

I'm trying to adjust to Florida, but I miss California for the weather, scenery, history, etc.

That's how I feel more of the history, my family lived in LA for a hundred years. But its just not the same place, it's not even the same place from when I was in my twenties. I'll miss my year round gardening, weather, and friends but just about all of my family has passed away and my kids will never have what I had growing up there.

RC2006 says

clambo says

I'm trying to adjust to Florida, but I miss California for the weather, scenery, history, etc.

California is the best.....beautiful beaches, trails, mountains, weather. cant beat it.

Bitcoin says

WookieMan says

Patrick says

I'm very familiar with summer humidity in IL and MI.

I actually like humidity now. Natural sauna or steam more appropriately.

This rhyme seems to fit:

sauna boii from Ilinoii
humidity and sweat during summer
for everyone else that sounds like a bummer
sauna boii from ilinoii

Choking levels of taxation, months of choking levels smoke in the air, highest levels of ethnic diversity in the US causing the lowest levels of civic participation (exactly as predicted at http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/05/the_downside_of_diversity/ ).

Full of violently intolerant leftists, mask Nazis, corrupt state government, companies that research your background for utter conformity to political correctness before making any offer.

Smog, tap water that tastes like nail polish. And everything in the state crazy expensive.

It's not just nice beaches and weather.

Patrick says

Choking levels of taxation, months of choking levels smoke in the air, highest levels of ethnic diversity in the US causing the lowest levels of civic participation (exactly as predicted at http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/05/the_downside_of_diversity/ ).

Full of violently intolerant leftists, mask Nazis, corrupt state government, companies that research your background for utter conformity to political correctness before making any offer.

Smog, tap water that tastes like nail polish. And everything in the state crazy expensive.

It's not just nice beaches and weather.

Thank you for being honest. My intent isn't to bash CA. I'm sure it's a fine place to live and I have vacationed there almost a dozen times now. There are a lot of problems, just like any place in the country.

Patrick says

Choking levels of taxation, months of choking levels smoke in the air, highest levels of ethnic diversity in the US causing the lowest levels of civic participation (exactly as predicted at http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/05/the_downside_of_diversity/ ).

Full of violently intolerant leftists, mask Nazis, corrupt state government, companies that research your background for utter conformity to political correctness before making any offer.

Smog, tap water that tastes like nail polish. And everything in the state crazy expensive.

It's not just nice beaches and weather.

Which tap water? The tap water from SF mainly comes from hetch hetchy in Yosemite - one of the highest quality waters in the country - and is treated with Chloramine instead of Chlorine - it actually tastes pretty good and has good lab values. don't know about the peninsula and south bay, but the tap water is def decent here. When I travel it usually tastes worse in almost all destinations. The frequent wind keeps smog at bay, but of course that makes it colder together with the fog. Not my favorite climate but not the worst either. The main thing is they need to get the pollution from forest fires under control, followed by reducing traffic exhaust in denser areas such as the bay area.

mell says

it actually tastes pretty good and has good lab values

Maybe it has good lab values, but it REEKS of nail polish to me. Even from a distance. I don't know exactly what it is, but it's definitely nothing good.

I got a Britta charcoal filter for our tap, and that removes most of the smell and taste.

Wife could not taste it and didn't believe me, so she had me do a taste test at a party we had. She said one glass was filtered and two were not, and I was to pick the filtered one.

One tasted fine, the other tasted the usual horrible, and the third one was kinda halfway.

I was a big winner that day, because I was exactly right. One was filtered, one was not, and one was half and half.

Most people could not tell, but a Chinese guy at the party got the exact same result that I did. I think it must be some genetic thing where different people taste and smell things differently.

Patrick says

mell says

it actually tastes pretty good and has good lab values

Maybe it has good lab values, but it REEKS of nail polish to me. Even from a distance. I don't know exactly what it is, but it's definitely nothing good.

I got a Britta charcoal filter for our tap, and that removes most of the smell and taste.

Wife could not taste it and didn't believe me, so she had me do a taste test at a party we had. She said one glass was filtered and two were not, and I was to pick the filtered one.

One tasted fine, the other tasted the usual horrible, and the third one was kinda halfway.

I was a big winner that day, because I was exactly right. One was filtered, one was not, and one was half and half.

Most people could not tell, but a Chinese guy at the party got the exact same result that I did. I think it must be some genetic thing where different people taste and smell things differently.

Could be but could also be bad pipes locally or in the municipality. Or maybe it's the ammonia part of Chloramine and you can filter out Chloramine via reverse osmosis or charcoal. I def can't taste it and have not met anyone who complained. If you travel and go somewhere where Chlorine is used you can taste the Chlorine much more than anything from the Chloramine, but nail polish is a very distinct smell ;) Filters definitely help a lot. We should repeat that taste test some time!

Someone once told me that they use a certain kind of grease in the pipes and some people don't like the smell.

It's worst in Sacramento, but the whole Bay Area is bad tasting to me.

Davis and Chico had good water if I recall correctly.

NW San Antonio had great tasting water when I was a kid. Minerals make it taste good and that water comes from the Edward's Aquifer which is limestone. There were spots where if you knew about them you could drink it coming from the ground. That limestone is a hellava filter.

I used to drink it straight from the faucet and in a glass it would look like a snow globe from all of the calcium that came through.

Tastes like chlorinated shit now. I'm not sure if it's chlorine or what but the water at my parents latest house tastes 'treated'.

I used hi-grade water filtration in San Diego. Our tap water is only one level above fire hydrant grade.

I filtered the hell out of peninsula water as well and don't recall what it tastes like pre-filter. I think a lot of that water comes from Crystal Springs Reservoir, no?

There used to be a spring on the downslope of 92 leading to half moon bay. There was literally a pipe someone stuck in the side of the hill and water continuously coming out of the pipe, and I think there was a sign saying which spring it was. It was very good water. I used to go there and fill up water-cooler jugs.

But now it's gone. I don't know how that happened.

Patrick says

Maybe it has good lab values, but it REEKS of nail polish to me. Even from a distance. I don't know exactly what it is, but it's definitely nothing good.

My wife gives me shit all the time about smells/tastes/senses basically. With any sense there's people that are more in tune with that sense. I'd notice the difference in water in a heartbeat. So I hear ya Patrick.

It's awful, but I can hear bats. My uncle used to work for Motorola testing headsets and his job was to eliminate that type of frequency because he could hear it. There's not a huge population out there that can hear that frequency, but they'd be miserable if they bought a headset or ear piece that allowed it to come through. So they had a guy for that. After a while they just figured out how to remove that problem forever, so he lost his job. This sounds like a joke, but it's not. This was the late 70's to 80's.

Patrick says

I finally arrived, in a way. I gave notice at work today, will be done with work in two weeks.

I'm able to retire early because I put it all in the stock market and not in the housing market.

So now I'm technically retired, and I got this email from Schwab today:

How Can I Stop Living Paycheck to Paycheck?

By Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz

Living paycheck to paycheck can feel like you're on an endless financial treadmill. Here's how to jump off.

I stopped living paycheck to paycheck by no longer getting paychecks!

Apropos of nothing, I was in a Juno Beach charity second hand store and chatted with the guy in there.

I check them out sometimes while I’m in the area, on my way to Dunkin.

He was from a nice part of LA and retired out here.

I’m bumping into guys from California more than I did a few years ago.

Bought an oil painting with old ships, it looks like Francis Swaine, but I’m not sure.

Patrick says

I stopped living paycheck to paycheck by no longer getting paychecks!

Congrats and enjoy retirement! Any travel plans???

Yes, going to check out Washington State in June or so, anywhere except Seattle.

No income tax there, nice scenery, some relatives.

I'll go anywhere that does not demand me to show papers proving I've been injected with an experimental agent to make Fauci rich.

Patrick says

Yes, going to check out Washington State in June or so, anywhere except Seattle.

No income tax there, nice scenery, some relatives.

I'll go anywhere that does not demand me to show papers proving I've been injected with an experimental agent to make Fauci rich.

Nice, Idaho and Utah are beautiful too. And taking my wife to Yellowstone Park (rented a nice jeep) was one of my favorite vacations. I've never really been in Washington other than Seattle.

Interesting plots of stock market returns:





from https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/04/stock-market-returns-are-anything-but-average/

Going up 40%, then down 40% doesn't put you back at the starting point. I'd like to see this plot with a dB change scale, so going up 1 dB and then down 1 dB puts you back at starting point.

Good point. The first 40% up is 40% of a smaller number, so 40% up then down leaves you at 84% of original number:

1.4 * 0.6 = 0.84

Still, on average you do win in the stock market. It's like a casino with an upward bias, unlike Vegas casinos.