Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12

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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am   116,748 views  1,164 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (7)   💰tip   ignore  

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'


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412   AD   2023 Aug 30, 5:18pm  

1) Weaker than expected jobs growth for August 2023 report: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2023-08-30/adp-employers-add-fewer-jobs-than-expected-as-hospitality-sector-slows

2) Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia data seems to show recession has started: https://mishtalk.com/economics/philadelphia-fed-gdpplus-measure-sure-looks-like-recession-started-in-2022-q4/

See the above 2 links. More layoffs such as 7% of T mobile's white collar workforce means less middle to upper class who can go on vacation, buy a new car, etc.

It does not help that the Fed Funds rate is at 22 year high. But this tells me inflation should continue to trend downward.

I predict an unemployment rate of at least 5% by spring 2024, but there may be a lot of manipulation and lying such as reporting an economic recovery by late summer 2024.

Its all about the Dems keeping the White House, and they can't cheat enough to win an election during a recession.

So expect a lot of continued lies about the economy such as inflation and economic growth at least through early November 2024..

The problem is the Dems control everything from the federal bureaucracy that calculate the economic statistics to the mainstream media outlets that report what is spoon fed to them by the Birdbrain Biden admin.

414   AD   2023 Aug 31, 11:59am  


PCE rose by 0.2% from June 2023 to July 2023. I am focusing on monthly changes due to the "baseline effect" of comparing inflation to 12 months ago.

As long as annual inflation continues to remain below 4% for the next 6 months, and monthly increases are no more than 0.35% then I think inflation will continue to trend downward.



"An inflation measure that’s watched closely by the Federal Reserve edged higher in July, possibility raising the chances that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year.

Consumer prices increased 3.3% from a year earlier, above the 3% pace in June but below the 40-year high of 7% in June 2022, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Much of the July rise was due to the fact that inflation already had started to slow somewhat by July 2022 and so the gap in prices between that month and July 2023 was larger.

On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2%, in line with June’s increase, according to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index."
415   AD   2023 Sep 1, 5:09pm  


Saudi Arabia to extend production cuts. Go to Ycharts and look at world rig county and oil rig count; they are still way below early 2020 levels.


Wonder what Birdbrain Biden is going to do if this extends into 2024. Or maybe he'll make a deal with them so that oil prices rise again after the November 2024 election.

416   Patrick   2023 Sep 1, 5:10pm  

In this rare instance, the Saudis may actually help America by impeding Pedo Peter.
417   AD   2023 Sep 2, 1:38am  

The second revision is noticeably less than the original estimate for each month. They need a recession at least 9 months before the November 2024 election.

That gives the Democrats enough time to claim an economic recovery when campaigning in August through October.

They need 3 months of constant news broadcasting about how the economy has improved, just like Clinton's first campaign was all about "its the economy stupid".

418   AD   2023 Sep 4, 8:44pm  

AI like ChapGPT expected to replace coders, paralegals, teachers, and graphic artists among the jobs most affected.


Is AI going to do to coders like word processing did to clerk typists and it replacing the typist pool at work ?

Or think about how telephone operators had been affected by technology, or even how the US Postal Service has seen a drop in mail due to email, electronic payments, etc.

This means that labor costs will drop some for companies that use AI more, which should mean less inflation.

Look at how a lot of customer service agents are AI and it takes several minutes to work with them to finally chat with a customer service agent who is a real person.

419   AD   2023 Sep 6, 4:37pm  

Roku to lay off 10% of its workforce as reported by CNBC today. It already laid off about 12% since last November.

Let's track credit card debt delinquencies and the unemployment rate for the next 6 months.
420   richwicks   2023 Sep 6, 4:46pm  

ad says

Is AI going to do to coders like word processing did to clerk typists and it replacing the typist pool at work ?

No. I've played around with it quite a bit. It's very useful for doing basic things really quickly, but ask it to do something difficult and it will produce a result, that doesn't work.

I think it's going to compliment coders considerably actually.

If I ask it to make a CRC32 routine, it will do it. If I ask it to make a web-socket for use with Apache, it will give a solution, but it won't work.
421   Patrick   2023 Sep 7, 11:35am  


Biden cancels all oil, gas drilling leases in Alaskan Arctic wildlife refuge...

Interior Department Secretary Deb Haaland authorized the cancellations of seven leases held by Alaska’s state-owned economic development agency, the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, in the remote coastal region that sprawls more than 19 million acres bordering Canada to the east and the Beaufort Sea to the north.

Biden's deliberate increases in the cost of oil and gas are the primary driver of inflation.
422   AD   2023 Sep 7, 3:03pm  

Debt GDP ratio steadying around 120%. It was around 105% when Obama left office. It peaked in 2021 around 135%.


Debt interest has increased so that means greater deficits

424   AD   2023 Sep 14, 7:40pm  

The same style car would cost about $40,000 and the median wage is around $58,000.

Back in 1968 the median wage was around $8,000 and this car is priced around $3,000.

It just shows how much cars costs in regards to purchasing power of the median wage owner :-(

425   AD   2023 Sep 14, 9:09pm  

I received this today via email. Amazon getting into telemedicine. I wonder if this type of service will help to keep medical costs down and if insurance companies will encourage its use. Also, Amazon Pharmacy has been in operating since 2020.

426   richwicks   2023 Sep 14, 10:34pm  

ad says

I wonder if this type of service will help to keep medical costs down


The purpose is to reduce costs for them, not for you.
427   Misc   2023 Sep 15, 12:19pm  

Because everything happens in a vacuum...let's just raise wages...that will give workers a benefit. Other prices????? Higher wages won't lead to those going up, and besides government workers will get a COLA.

428   Misc   2023 Sep 15, 12:28pm  

When you sell 180 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Reserve, and the price of oil subsequently drops below $70 a barrel; you look like a hero.

When you forget to restock the Reserve at that lower price and oil goes higher than where you sold it at....welll....you look like a Putz.
430   Patrick   2023 Sep 16, 9:08am  


It was CPI day. So it might be expected that some anomaly in the monthly data would provide a timely reminder that Washington’s main inflation index isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. In the context of our Monetary Mission Impossible series, it also provides further proof that the Fed’s fanatical quest to reach its 2.00% inflation goal is utterly misguided.

As it happens, the number -33.6% contained in the August CPI report fulfills both of these expectations and then some. This figure supposedly represents the Y/Y plunge in the cost of medical insurance!

That’s right. Anything connected to the medical delivery system was up by hefty amounts in August on a Y/Y basis, but the thundering collapse (purportedly) of health insurance costs allegedly saved the day. As shown below, according to the BLS the index for overall medical services was down -2.1% on a Y/Y basis in August when all of its other components where positive, some of them like dental care and home health services strikingly so.

Y/Y Change In CPI Medical Services And Its Components:

Dental services: +5.3%;
Eye care:+3.4%;
Physicians: +0.3%;
Home health services: +6.9%;
Hospital services:+3.0%;
Nursing home care: +6.1%;
Health insurance: -33.6%;
Overall Medical Care Services: -2.1%

... Yet that’s where the monetary politburo now finds itself impaled. That is, squinting at 27% of the CPI (i.e. the supercore) in order to calibrate its anti-inflation “tools” when this sawed-off inflation metric is so distorted by the BLS’s whacko health insurance proxy that it’s not worth the paper it’s printed on.
431   AD   2023 Sep 17, 12:28am  

Unemployment rate is 3.8%. It was as low as 3.5% right before the pandemic started. Healthy unemployment rate is between 4% and 6%.

I am not sure how high it may go for the next recession, but we have a way to go for unemployment to get to that point.

I suspect when it reaches around 5.5% then we may be near the middle of the next recession.

An inflation rate between 4% and 6% corresponds to keeping wage inflation in check as the labor market has tightened however the market is still near or at full employment conditions.

I read Google has conducted another round of layoffs, this time to its recruiters workforce; it has indicated it is hiring less. That's a good sign as far as the labor market tightening so that inflation may continue to decrease.

432   AD   2023 Sep 17, 12:35am  

Patrick says

Health insurance: -33.6%;

Eventually the accountants are going to have to adjust this. And it is going to have to be adjusted by the end of this year, not right after the November 2024 election.

If at best, health insurance will go up 3% from December 2022 to December 2023. My estimate is that overall medical care services will finish between +6% to +10% for the end of 2024.

But no way will this aggregate or component remain in negative double digits or even negative single digits going into 2024.
434   AD   2023 Sep 17, 12:31pm  

Misc says

restock the Reserve

Yeah, look at the timing of this. It started around March 2022 and ended around mid October 2022 (right before the midterm election). If gas prices stayed high in 2022, then I don't know if the Dems would have fared well in the House election.

Birdbrain Biden is fucked cause now OPEC and Russia is cutting production and the price of gas has gone up. He cannot tap the depleted reserves like he
did in 2022 leading into the 2024 election.
435   AD   2023 Sep 17, 10:29pm  


Focus on workforce participation such as prime working age (25 to 54 years)


Look at the overall (all age groups) labor participation percentage rate (62.8%) and it is only 0.5% below Feb 2020 level, and only 4.5% below its peak in late 2000.



Work for home doesn't apply for jobs with a lot of vacancies like air condition repair, nursing home attendant, car mechanic, etc.

Need more worker supply for those service areas to help bring down CPI and PCE services

Unless there are significantly more productivity gains such as more reliable air conditioners and cars which need less repair, etc.

436   richwicks   2023 Sep 17, 10:44pm  

ad says

Birdbrain Biden is fucked cause now OPEC and Russia is cutting production and the price of gas has gone up.

You've seen ballot fraud magic once.
437   AD   2023 Sep 18, 12:50am  

need robots and automation to increase productivity if the total worker participation rate is going to continue to decline due to demographics ...unless people continue to work at least part time between the ages of 65 and 80 ....

438   zzyzzx   2023 Sep 18, 5:52am  

Check out inflation in Lebanon.

There is also significant inflation, which caused a massive loss of purchasing power and an increase in poverty. The price of foule or ful, a fava bean common in the region, was up 550% in March 2020 over a year earlier. Sugar has seen an increase of 670%, while wheat, tea, rice, and cigarettes have all gone up nearly 1,000% over the same period.

Argentina and Turkey also having massive inflation.

And our all time favorite Zimbabwe:
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zimbabwe's inflation rate shot up from 66% to more than 130% in May 2022. By June 2022, it surged again to 191%.

And of course Wikipedia is blaming the war instead of money printing for inflation, because they have an agenda.
440   UkraineIsTotallyFucked   2023 Sep 18, 11:54pm  

zzyzzx says

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zimbabwe's inflation rate shot up from 66% to more than 130% in May 2022. By June 2022, it surged again to 191%.

And of course Wikipedia is blaming the war instead of money printing for inflation, because they have an agenda.

Rhodesia is still a food exporter. So one would think their current account is in surplus.

Basically, they were using foreign notes...then switched to a new currency but wrecked it like all the others.

On the plus side, they are supposedly adopting a gold system this year. Let's see if the gold held in reserve gets stolen.

...or even if this happens at all.

In April 2023, the government announced the introduction of digital currencies backed by gold reserves. The digital money will be allowed to be transferred for people and business as a form of payment via e-gold wallets or e-gold cards.
442   Robert Sproul   2023 Sep 19, 7:28am  

ad says

need robots and automation to increase productivity if the total worker participation rate is going to continue to decline due to demographics

This is why the southern border is wide open I would reckon. The influx of 7 MILLION people from all over the world since Biden 'took' office might have some impact.
Some of them will probably get jobs.
445   AD   2023 Sep 19, 11:46am  

Biden went full krazy reading the script handed to him about oil and gas. Even Obama was careful and nuanced. And now the Saudis are going to make Birdbrain Biden pay for this for the next 12 months.

Unless Biden makes some deals to get oil prices to drop between now and the 2024 election, and then rise again after the election.

Look at how he used the strategic oil reserves from March to October 2022 and then oil prices rises again after the midterm election. That helped to make sure the House was not taken over by a large Republican majority.
448   AD   2023 Sep 20, 11:20pm  

I think they will not lower interest rates unless CPI and PCE remain at or below 1.75% annual for at least 4 months. The Fed would keep rates the same i both remain between 2 and 3% annual. Look at recent seasonal hiring announcements by Target and Amazon; I wonder if its going to be a good Christmas this year.


451   AD   2023 Sep 21, 2:10pm  

Fear and Greed Index back in fear territory for the first time since March 2023 (except for a brief moment last month).

S&P 500 about 11% below its all time high (~4825), and at July 2021 levels.

The S&P 500 may not return to 4825 for another year and at least 2.5 years since it was set in December 2021. I don't think it will be 20% above 4825 before 1 January 2025.

Asset prices remain down which will mean less capital gains to drive up inflation. Also lower asset prices like stocks make people feel poorer and less inclined to spend money.

I wonder if we'll have a soft landing as Jerome Powell has mentioned.

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