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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12
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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am 147,310 views 1,539 comments
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587
AD
2023 Nov 20, 10:01am
AD
2023 Nov 20, 10:01am
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Heard CapWealth Founder Tim Pagliara get interviewed about 15 minutes ago on Bloomberg Radio WBBR.
He said he is bullish on energy as fossil fuel is still going to be needed such as to power a mega factory in Kansas that makes EV and solar power batteries.
He did say the S&P 500 has only returned about 6.5% annually over last 24 years despite it being historically being promoted as returning 10% a year. He said invest in growth stocks like Microsoft and Costco which beat the S&P 500.
For me, I like S&P 500 Growth ETF (ticker: VOOG) in order to offer a better real return (i.e., after inflation return).
He says expect the 10 Year Treasury to steady around 4.25% when inflation settles around 2%. He sees now we are in a period of reduction in inflation (aka: disinflation).
.
Heard CapWealth Founder Tim Pagliara get interviewed about 15 minutes ago on Bloomberg Radio WBBR.
He said he is bullish on energy as fossil fuel is still going to be needed such as to power a mega factory in Kansas that makes EV and solar power batteries.
He did say the S&P 500 has only returned about 6.5% annually over last 24 years despite it being historically being promoted as returning 10% a year. He said invest in growth stocks like Microsoft and Costco which beat the S&P 500.
For me, I like S&P 500 Growth ETF (ticker: VOOG) in order to offer a better real return (i.e., after inflation return).
He says expect the 10 Year Treasury to steady around 4.25% when inflation settles around 2%. He sees now we are in a period of reduction in inflation (aka: disinflation).
.
588
zzyzzx
2023 Nov 20, 11:10am
zzyzzx
2023 Nov 20, 11:10am
Patrick says
I'd like to see the updated for 2023 version. I'm calling bullshit on the wage increases as well.
I'd like to see the updated for 2023 version. I'm calling bullshit on the wage increases as well.
589
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 Nov 20, 6:15pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 Nov 20, 6:15pm
ad says
Thank for the tip, ad. I've used Gas Buddy but didn't notice that one.
I happened to be passing by that place today so I filled up. Today's price at Kwik Serve was $4.039
yeah, and you could have gotten a better deal ... according to Gas Buddy website, its $4.09 at Kwik Serv 2370 Alum Rock Ave San Jose, CA
Thank for the tip, ad. I've used Gas Buddy but didn't notice that one.
I happened to be passing by that place today so I filled up. Today's price at Kwik Serve was $4.039
593
AD
2023 Nov 21, 4:00pm
AD
2023 Nov 21, 4:00pm
HeadSet says
I got the Butterball turkey at $1.28 a pound at the Walmart in Panama City Beach on Front Beach Rd. This seems like same price I paid back in November 2021.
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ad says
Best price I could find for a Butterball turkey around here is $1.97/pound.
I got the Butterball turkey at $1.28 a pound at the Walmart in Panama City Beach on Front Beach Rd. This seems like same price I paid back in November 2021.
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595
zzyzzx
2023 Nov 22, 6:33am
zzyzzx
2023 Nov 22, 6:33am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almost-third-millionaires-us-now-120000548.html
Almost a third of millionaires in the US now say they're part of the middle class — even the 'regular rich' like doctors, lawyers don't feel well off.
Almost a third of millionaires in the US now say they're part of the middle class — even the 'regular rich' like doctors, lawyers don't feel well off.
598
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Nov 24, 6:18pm
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/24/money-market-funds-large-cds-small-cds-all-surged-americans-figured-it-out/
This is SUPPOSED to be how the banking system is to work: paying savers not the Fed. The Fed discount window is not supposed to be the first resort for bank lending funds but rather the last. But close to ten years of QE bullshit has been otherwise.
#ReturningToNormal
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Nov 24, 6:18pm
Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs All Surged: Americans Figured it Out
Banks, forced by competition from money market funds, got the memo.
Money market funds have been paying over 5% since about April 2023, up from near 0% in April 2022, and Americans are liking it. A lot. And that has forced banks to compete for deposits by offering attractive interest rates on CDs. And Americans have flocked to those too.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/24/money-market-funds-large-cds-small-cds-all-surged-americans-figured-it-out/
This is SUPPOSED to be how the banking system is to work: paying savers not the Fed. The Fed discount window is not supposed to be the first resort for bank lending funds but rather the last. But close to ten years of QE bullshit has been otherwise.
#ReturningToNormal
599
AD
2023 Nov 24, 11:31pm
AD
2023 Nov 24, 11:31pm
$16 meal at McDonalds ... McDonalds pays about $14 an hour in Bay County, Florida...
I remember making about $4.50 an hour (with no tips) back in 1986 at a restaurant as a busboy and McDonalds Big Mac meal costing about $2.50 ...
https://nypost.com/2023/11/04/lifestyle/16-for-a-burger-fries-and-soda-mcdonalds-customers-slam-franchise-fume-its-no-longer-affordable/
This explains how McDonalds is making more revenue: https://nypost.com/2023/10/30/business/mcdonalds-revenue-soars-as-it-hikes-menu-prices-18-big-macs/
Though the stock is about 28% above 2019 price level, and inflation has been about 24% from 2019 to present day ... so McDonalds stock has not had any major real gain since 2019 ..
.
I remember making about $4.50 an hour (with no tips) back in 1986 at a restaurant as a busboy and McDonalds Big Mac meal costing about $2.50 ...
https://nypost.com/2023/11/04/lifestyle/16-for-a-burger-fries-and-soda-mcdonalds-customers-slam-franchise-fume-its-no-longer-affordable/
This explains how McDonalds is making more revenue: https://nypost.com/2023/10/30/business/mcdonalds-revenue-soars-as-it-hikes-menu-prices-18-big-macs/
Though the stock is about 28% above 2019 price level, and inflation has been about 24% from 2019 to present day ... so McDonalds stock has not had any major real gain since 2019 ..
.
600
stereotomy
2023 Nov 25, 12:10am
stereotomy
2023 Nov 25, 12:10am
I remember close to 10 years ago 29 cent/lb turkeys after Thanksgiving. Now its about 80 cents/lb. Let's go Brandon!
602
zzyzzx
2023 Nov 27, 8:58am
zzyzzx
2023 Nov 27, 8:58am
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-inflation-economy-cost-of-living/
Just How Bad Is the US Cost-of-Living Squeeze? We Did the Math
After years of inflation, US consumers are shouldering a burden unlike anything seen in decades — even as the pace of price increases has slowed.
It now requires $119.27 to buy the same goods and services a family could afford with $100 before the pandemic. Since early 2020, prices have risen about as much as they had in the full 10 years preceding the health emergency.
It’s hard to find an area of a household budget that’s been spared: Groceries are up 25% since January 2020. Same with electricity. Used-car prices have climbed 35%, auto insurance 33% and rents roughly 20%.
Many Americans have seen their pay rise rapidly since 2020, but much of those gains have been gobbled up by inflation. Some of the fastest wage increases in decades have left the average American largely no better off than before.
In the four years before the pandemic, grocery prices increased less than 1%, offering shoppers a certain predictability.
Even then, consumers occasionally saw price spikes for specific items due to drought, disease or natural disaster. But the nearly ubiquitous increases of the last few years — and the brisk pace — have been bewildering.
A pound of ground beef now costs $5.23 on average, up from $3.89 in January 2020. Coffee is up some $2 a pound. Prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are nearly 14% higher. At one point, the price of a carton of eggs was triple its pre-pandemic price.
For most Americans, the cost of housing is by far the largest expense in any given month. As a result, the run-up in rental prices — which looks even more acute when using data from private companies like Zillow Group Inc. — has made it harder for many to save or have enough left over for other spending.
It’s also a difficult moment for renters to make the leap to homeownership. Mortgage rates are around a 23-year high, and home values have jumped nearly 42% since the start of 2020
Those who owned homes before the recent run-up in mortgage rates and prices have been shielded from one of the most dramatic impacts of inflation, and the appreciation in home values has markedly boosted their wealth.
It’s “like winning the lottery in hindsight,” said Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow.
But it’s not all roses for homeowners. The rapid climb in home equity has pushed up property taxes, and the surge in mortgage rates has prevented many of them from moving.
Americans haven’t gotten any respite from their other bills either. Electricity bills have climbed 25% since January 2020, and natural gas is up 29% in the same time period. And like inflation more generally, jumps in electricity prices have been uneven across states and regions.
Car insurance is up 33%, and the combination of higher car prices and a surge in borrowing costs has pushed the average monthly payment for a new car to a record high of $736. According to Edmunds, a record 17.5% of consumers financing a new vehicle are now paying $1,000 or more a month.
More details in the article along with graphs 📈 (paywall though)
Just How Bad Is the US Cost-of-Living Squeeze? We Did the Math
After years of inflation, US consumers are shouldering a burden unlike anything seen in decades — even as the pace of price increases has slowed.
It now requires $119.27 to buy the same goods and services a family could afford with $100 before the pandemic. Since early 2020, prices have risen about as much as they had in the full 10 years preceding the health emergency.
It’s hard to find an area of a household budget that’s been spared: Groceries are up 25% since January 2020. Same with electricity. Used-car prices have climbed 35%, auto insurance 33% and rents roughly 20%.
Many Americans have seen their pay rise rapidly since 2020, but much of those gains have been gobbled up by inflation. Some of the fastest wage increases in decades have left the average American largely no better off than before.
In the four years before the pandemic, grocery prices increased less than 1%, offering shoppers a certain predictability.
Even then, consumers occasionally saw price spikes for specific items due to drought, disease or natural disaster. But the nearly ubiquitous increases of the last few years — and the brisk pace — have been bewildering.
A pound of ground beef now costs $5.23 on average, up from $3.89 in January 2020. Coffee is up some $2 a pound. Prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are nearly 14% higher. At one point, the price of a carton of eggs was triple its pre-pandemic price.
For most Americans, the cost of housing is by far the largest expense in any given month. As a result, the run-up in rental prices — which looks even more acute when using data from private companies like Zillow Group Inc. — has made it harder for many to save or have enough left over for other spending.
It’s also a difficult moment for renters to make the leap to homeownership. Mortgage rates are around a 23-year high, and home values have jumped nearly 42% since the start of 2020
Those who owned homes before the recent run-up in mortgage rates and prices have been shielded from one of the most dramatic impacts of inflation, and the appreciation in home values has markedly boosted their wealth.
It’s “like winning the lottery in hindsight,” said Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow.
But it’s not all roses for homeowners. The rapid climb in home equity has pushed up property taxes, and the surge in mortgage rates has prevented many of them from moving.
Americans haven’t gotten any respite from their other bills either. Electricity bills have climbed 25% since January 2020, and natural gas is up 29% in the same time period. And like inflation more generally, jumps in electricity prices have been uneven across states and regions.
Car insurance is up 33%, and the combination of higher car prices and a surge in borrowing costs has pushed the average monthly payment for a new car to a record high of $736. According to Edmunds, a record 17.5% of consumers financing a new vehicle are now paying $1,000 or more a month.
More details in the article along with graphs 📈 (paywall though)
603
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 Nov 27, 9:04am
B.A.C.A.H.
2023 Nov 27, 9:04am
zzyzzx says
Only for recent buyers in California.
The rapid climb in home equity has pushed up property taxes
Only for recent buyers in California.
604
AD
2023 Nov 27, 11:03am
AD
2023 Nov 27, 11:03am
.
Forecasters marked up their projections for the annual so-called core personal consumption expenditures index largely through the end of next year, per the results of the November survey. The measure, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is seen at 2.5% at the end of 2024, up from 2.4% in last month’s poll.
Meantime, the overall PCE metric and the alternative consumer price index are seen receding faster than previously thought through mid-2024. Those measures have shown greater disinflation in recent months largely due to a pullback in energy prices.
While recent reports have showed encouraging signs that price pressures are easing, Fed officials have repeatedly indicated they must see sustained signs of cooling before declaring victory on inflation. Policymakers favor the core gauge as a better indicator of underlying price pressures.
Though economists still expect the Fed to start loosening monetary policy in the second quarter of next year, they now see the central bank keeping interest rates higher through the end of 2025.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-see-stubborn-us-core-140000636.html
.
Forecasters marked up their projections for the annual so-called core personal consumption expenditures index largely through the end of next year, per the results of the November survey. The measure, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is seen at 2.5% at the end of 2024, up from 2.4% in last month’s poll.
Meantime, the overall PCE metric and the alternative consumer price index are seen receding faster than previously thought through mid-2024. Those measures have shown greater disinflation in recent months largely due to a pullback in energy prices.
While recent reports have showed encouraging signs that price pressures are easing, Fed officials have repeatedly indicated they must see sustained signs of cooling before declaring victory on inflation. Policymakers favor the core gauge as a better indicator of underlying price pressures.
Though economists still expect the Fed to start loosening monetary policy in the second quarter of next year, they now see the central bank keeping interest rates higher through the end of 2025.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-see-stubborn-us-core-140000636.html
.
605
Patrick
2023 Nov 27, 2:27pm
Patrick
2023 Nov 27, 2:27pm
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/pricey-patty-monday-november-27-2023
https://www.tiktok.com/@topherolive/video/7179658803867077934
https://www.tiktok.com/@topherolive/video/7179658803867077934
No wonder they are so mad about TikTok all the time.
607
AD
2023 Nov 28, 4:04pm
AD
2023 Nov 28, 4:04pm
I like getting a free McDonakds sandwich when I complete a mcdvoice survey. The McDonalds I go to always seems to have this survey option on the receipt.
So I get a fish sandwich for free along with a $9 small meal of a chicken crispy sandwich with fries and soda.
Its enough calories for a meal at $9 compared to the average starting wage for fast food of $15 in Bay County, Florida.
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So I get a fish sandwich for free along with a $9 small meal of a chicken crispy sandwich with fries and soda.
Its enough calories for a meal at $9 compared to the average starting wage for fast food of $15 in Bay County, Florida.
.
608
AD
2023 Nov 28, 7:43pm
AD
2023 Nov 28, 7:43pm
Dollar has weakened : https://news.yahoo.com/dollar-weakens-further-rate-cut-030003386.html
The dollar extended losses Wednesday as traders ramped up bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the new year after officials sounded optimistic notes on the battle against inflation.
The PCE for October 2024 is to be reported on 30 November.
The dollar extended losses Wednesday as traders ramped up bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the new year after officials sounded optimistic notes on the battle against inflation.
The PCE for October 2024 is to be reported on 30 November.
609
AD
2023 Nov 28, 11:11pm
AD
2023 Nov 28, 11:11pm
Red Lobsters loses $11 million on all you can eat shrimp deal...
I'm 0% surprised by this judging by what I see at restaurants when they offer all you can eat deals like this ...
it contributes to less inflation as far as restaurant prices but its not economically sustainable given obesity trends in the USA ...
so yes, there is a lot more high demand for restaurant deals like this compared to 25 to 30 years ago ...
https://nypost.com/2023/11/28/business/red-lobster-lost-11-million-because-of-its-all-you-can-eat-shrimp-deal/
.....
I'm 0% surprised by this judging by what I see at restaurants when they offer all you can eat deals like this ...
it contributes to less inflation as far as restaurant prices but its not economically sustainable given obesity trends in the USA ...
so yes, there is a lot more high demand for restaurant deals like this compared to 25 to 30 years ago ...
https://nypost.com/2023/11/28/business/red-lobster-lost-11-million-because-of-its-all-you-can-eat-shrimp-deal/
.....
611
AD
2023 Nov 30, 6:37pm
AD
2023 Nov 30, 6:37pm
https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index
PCE reported today for October 2023. The Federal Reserve states is makes its decision on the Fed Funds Rate based on the PCE.
PCE is 3% for last 12 months
Inflation continues to trend downward. I think annual inflation will reach 2.5% by April 2024.
....
PCE reported today for October 2023. The Federal Reserve states is makes its decision on the Fed Funds Rate based on the PCE.
PCE is 3% for last 12 months
Inflation continues to trend downward. I think annual inflation will reach 2.5% by April 2024.
....
612
GNL
2023 Nov 30, 8:36pm
GNL
2023 Nov 30, 8:36pm
ad says
Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.
Red Lobsters loses $11 million on all you can eat shrimp deal...
I'm 0% surprised by this judging by what I see at restaurants when they offer all you can eat deals like this ...
it contributes to less inflation as far as restaurant prices but its not economically sustainable given obesity trends in the USA ...
so yes, there is a lot more high demand for restaurant deals like this compared to 25 to 30 years ago ...
https://nypost.com/2023/11/28/business/red-lobster-lost-11-million-because-of-its-all-you-can-eat-shrimp-deal/
.....
Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.
613
AD
2023 Nov 30, 10:19pm
AD
2023 Nov 30, 10:19pm
GNL says
yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?
Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.
yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?
616
RWSGFY
2023 Dec 2, 10:07am
RWSGFY
2023 Dec 2, 10:07am
ad says
Anybody interested in reporting their own numbers can take their own surveys and come up with their own numbers. It's not rocket surgery and not the kind of info only gubmint can get. Many non-governmental
orgs are perfectly capable of it. So the claims that "we'll never know the real number because gubmint fudges it" are a bit silly.
GNL says
Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.
yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?
Anybody interested in reporting their own numbers can take their own surveys and come up with their own numbers. It's not rocket surgery and not the kind of info only gubmint can get. Many non-governmental
orgs are perfectly capable of it. So the claims that "we'll never know the real number because gubmint fudges it" are a bit silly.
624
AD
2023 Dec 12, 11:33am
AD
2023 Dec 12, 11:33am
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CPI reported today as 3.1% for last 12 months. Was hoping it would drop to 2.9% or lower but still this is a lot better than 9.1% back in summer 2022.
CPI minus food and energy (i.e., core CPI) is at 4% for last 12 months which is a major improvement.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
.
CPI reported today as 3.1% for last 12 months. Was hoping it would drop to 2.9% or lower but still this is a lot better than 9.1% back in summer 2022.
CPI minus food and energy (i.e., core CPI) is at 4% for last 12 months which is a major improvement.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
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https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati
Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.
EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net