patrick.net

Not even 90 days into Trumps 2nd term, and gas in the PRNY is $2.87, the lowest it's been since Trump's first term. Go figure.

Then again, gold is over $3K - I guess they're not making any more of it?

stereotomy says

Just remember boys and girls - the price of gold is a leading indicator of inflation.

Last weekend while gardening I listened to an archived radio broadcast drama show from 1978. At the end of the program an hourly "CBS news" was played before the audio file ended.

The main news topic was an updated casualty count from the Jonestown Massacre.

There was a mention of an inflation report. It was reported that at $600 per month, San Francisco was the city with the highest rent in the US.

Hmmm.... this got me thinking. I used the AI on my browser to get prices of other stuff for now and "average 1978 prices". I think compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a better figure of merit for this kind of stuff than simply dividing the old price into new price.

Median San Francisco rent 1978 vs current: $600 vs $3250. CAGR 3.6%. Put that into your pipes and smoke it, landlords.
Average in US Gallon of gasoline 1978 vs current average in US $0.65 vs $3.07. CAGR 3.3% Climate Change Is A Hoax.
Median house price San Francisco 1978 vs current: $245,670 vs $ $1,100,00. CAGR 3.19% Party On, childless SF Hipsters.
Median household income (median in US) 1978 vs current. $15,060 vs $78,538. CAGR 3.51%
Ounce of gold average 1978 price vs current: $193.23 vs $3014. CAGR $5.84%
SP500 index average 1978 price vs current: $96.11 vs $5650. CAGR 8.71%

Extras to add-on:

SanFran rent: Gotta add-in that extra 3.19% appreciation per year. Also, you have one paid off unit and that's already at 50% of the income of median household. - Not too bad.

S&P500: Gotta add-in that extra about 2.2% average yearly dividend.

Household income: Don't forget to factor in the incremental increase in the number of job holders per household. - Shows how this has sucked bigly.

The outperformance of the S&P 500 is directly related to the change in the US tax code. You see back in 1978 the corporate tax rate was 45% in 2024 it was 21%. Bizarrely, this outperformance can continue as the Oligarchs push for ever lower corporate taxes with the end result being a negative corporate tax rate. Government contracts and subsidies have already made this a fact of life for many S&P 500 members.

Misc says

The outperformance of the S&P 500 is directly related to the change in the US tax code.

If my tax code, you mean free trade agreements and outsourcing, then yes.

Misc says

Don't forget to factor in the incremental increase in the number of job holders per household

This...

The Federal Reserve monitors Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) to track inflation.

Today's PCE report shows the annual inflation rate at 2.5%. Each monthly report on PCE has been below 3% for the last 12 months.

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

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Patrick says

Factcheck: true

https://ground.news/article/us-inflation-fell-more-than-expected-to-28-in-february_23bd36

U.S. inflation decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, according to a report from the Labor Department.
Core inflation fell to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021, as noted by FactSet.

rate of growth is down, but prices aren’t coming back down. there won’t be deflation to compensate the loss we all deal with.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

Patrick says

Factcheck: true

https://ground.news/article/us-inflation-fell-more-than-expected-to-28-in-february_23bd36

U.S. inflation decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, according to a report from the Labor Department.
Core inflation fell to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021, as noted by FactSet.

rate of growth is down, but prices aren’t coming back down. there won’t be deflation to compensate the loss we all deal with.

Yes, at least we have disinflation and annual inflation has steadied below 3% for the last 12 months.

Hopefully household income grows at at least at a slightly greater rate than inflation.

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Differences in how Libtards and the Sane view future inflation expectations.

AD says

Yes, at least we have disinflation and annual inflation has steadied below 3% for the last 12 months.

Any inflation at all is a crime against everyone who holds dollars. It is pure theft by counterfeiting.

Our currency should be physical silver metal by weight, and not "dollars". Call it the pound.

Gold is making eyes at $3100 - how charming.

stereotomy says

Gold is making eyes at $3100 - how charming.

...but what is the number one nation gold is flowing into right now? Nope...it is not China.

DeportLibtards says

...but what is the number one nation gold is flowing into right now? Nope...it is not China.

I'm not sure but I think the number one nation it may be flowing out of is the UK. If I recall about a week ago they defaulted on contracts or whatever and we shipping a lot to the USA.

BOHICA

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around mid 1980's menu for Kmart , I remember eating at Super Kmart's cafe on Friday early evening when we would go for our weekly shopping





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March numbers are out:

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.4% over the prior year in March, a slowdown from February's 2.8% annual gain and a beat compared to economists' expectations of a 2.5% annual increase.

On a month-over-month basis, prices declined 0.1% — the first time monthly CPI prices have fallen since May 2020. This was also below the 0.2% increase seen in February and a beat compared to economists' estimates of a 0.1% monthly uptick.

On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in March climbed 0.1% over the prior month, cooler than February's 0.2% monthly gain and ahead of economist expectations of a 0.3% increase.

Eric Holder says

March numbers are out:

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.4% over the prior year in March, a slowdown from February's 2.8% annual gain and a beat compared to economists' expectations of a 2.5% annual increase.

On a month-over-month basis, prices declined 0.1% — the first time monthly CPI prices have fallen since May 2020. This was also below the 0.2% increase seen in February and a beat compared to economists' estimates of a 0.1% monthly uptick.

On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in March climbed 0.1% over the prior month, cooler than February's 0.2% monthly gain and ahead of economist expectations of a 0.3% increase.

Yes, as you've indicated, we've been in a deflationary situation long before the tariffs. Stocks, housing, bonds, bitcoin - everything is going down because the pricing unit by which they're measured - the US Dollar - is rising. Over a decade of ZIRP, massive indebtedness on the part of families, businesses, and government has created a massive short on the US Dollar. That's right, borrowing in dollars is shorting the dollar, because those borrowing massive amounts think that the dollar will depreciate and their earnings thereby increase to pay off the debt with more cheaper dollars.

Guess what - this is a dollar short squeeze. Everyone needs dollars to pay off their dollar-denominated debts, margin calls, etc.

This may be the deflationary spike before all the dollars worldwide come surging back to the US to fuel massive inflation (KaPoom theory for the iTulip peeps). If this plays out, the only question that needs to be asked is "Got Gold?"

stereotomy says

If this plays out, the only question that needs to be asked is "Got Gold?"

Executive Order 6102.

HeadSet says

stereotomy says

If this plays out, the only question that needs to be asked is "Got Gold?"

Executive Order 6102.

My wife said something similar recently - the price is going through the roof, but will you be able to access it when you need it?

https://x.com/MAGAVoice/status/1912335542806802689

1981 listing for Publix in Tallahassee Democrat newspaper , same chicken fryer at 63 cents a pound now goes for around $1.70 a pound at Publix and $1.46 a pound at Walmart

AD says

1981 listing for Publix in Tallahassee Democrat newspaper , same chicken fryer at 63 cents a pound now goes for around $1.70 a pound at Publix and $1.46 a pound at Walmart

Yes, Chicken production massively expanded in the 80s. The EU and other coutnries use every trick in the book to ban our chicken; I wish they would our beef, too (it was sure cheaper before globaloney!).

How much does the Rib Eye go for? Closer to $20/lb, not $4/lb.
https://delivery.publix.com/store/publix/s?k=ribeye%C2%A4t_zip_code%3D30075

Those English Muffins ain't no 3/$1 either.
https://delivery.publix.com/store/publix/s?k=english+muffins

Cream Cheese is $5 now. (No Kraft, so I compared Philly)
https://delivery.publix.com/store/publix/s?k=cream+cheese

Back when the Federal Min Wage was $3.35/hr as of Jan 1, 1981
https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart

AmericanKulak says

The EU and other coutnries use every trick in the book to ban our chicken

yep, just like China does as far as regulatory policies and other gimmicks to restrict imports from the USA , but at least they didn't have "tariffs" during Birdbrain Biden's administration

and people knocking Trump say we have "free trade" with China and the EU :-/

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AmericanKulak says

The EU and other coutnries use every trick in the book to ban our chicken

The only "trick" I'm aware of is the ban on treating it with chlorine. Are we happy with our chicken being treated with chlorine? What does RFK and the rest of MAHA say on the subject?

Here's Donald Trump as a presidential candidate in 2024: "We're going to bring prices way down, and we're going to get it done fast."

Here's Donald Trump as president in 2025: "I couldn't care less if [automakers] raise prices. "I couldn't care less. I hope they raise their prices."

Trump's pledge to battle inflation during the 2024 presidential campaign helped get him elected. Voters clearly felt stung by the elevated prices of the Biden years and thought Trump would bring relief.

Trump's inflation rhetoric from 2024 now looks like one of the most rapidly abandoned campaign promises in political history. Trump has imposed massive import tariffs that are overtly inflationary and make thousands of everyday products more expensive. On top of that, Trump is now trying to pressure the Federal Reserve into adopting a monetary policy that would make inflation even worse.

Trump isn't just tolerating inflation, as a listless Joe Biden seemed to do from 2022 to 2024 while his approval rating tumbled. Trump is actively courting inflation, defying economists forecasting renewed price hikes and the message from voters who last year punished the incumbent party they associated with wrecking their purchasing power.

When Trump won the election last November, inflation had fallen from a peak of 9% in 2022 to 2.7%, and it looked like the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening from 2022 to 2024 had worked. The National Association of Business Economists expected inflation of just 2.3% by the end of 2025, close to the Fed's 2% target. Investors thought the Fed would be cutting rates throughout 2025, with an 85% chance of at least one rate cut by early May, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Nearly six months later, Trump's tariffs have completely changed the outlook for inflation and interest rates. The NABE inflation forecast has now risen to 3.4% by the end of the year. The Fed hasn't cut rates at all since last December, mainly because it's worried that Trump's tariffs will cause reflation. The odds of a Fed rate cut by early May have dropped from 85% to 9%.

Reflation hasn't happened yet.

The inflation rate in March was a tame 2.4%. But that measures the pre-tariff economy, and there's no way around the fact that Trump's tariffs will push inflation higher in the coming months, with eye-popping price hikes for some items. Trump so far has raised the effective tariff rate on about $3 trillion worth of imports from 2.5% at the start of the year to around 27%. Those tax hikes are just now going into effect. American importers pay the tax, passing the added cost on to US businesses and consumers. Shoppers will start to see the Trump price hikes once retailers sell out of pre-tariff inventory.

Trump's 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts could raise the cost of a new vehicle by $5,000 to $10,000. While the tariff only applies to imports, many domestically assembled vehicles include imported parts that will become more expensive. And the higher cost of imported vehicles will raise the cost of domestics as well, since the higher cost of one product gives pricing power to those who make competing goods.

The Yale Budget Lab estimates that Trump's tariffs will cause double-digit price hikes in a dozen or so broad categories of goods, including clothing, appliances, toys, and pharmaceuticals. The biggest culprit will be Trump's 145% tax on Chinese products, which will hit products largely sourced in China. Leather goods such as belts and shoes will become 86% more expensive, the group estimates. Clothing prices will rise by 64%.

Trump is now pressuring the Fed to lower short-term interest rates, which could make Trumpflation worse. The Fed normally lowers rates when the economy is weak and needs a boost. By making money cheaper, lower rates juice lending and spending, stimulating growth. Inflation isn't usually a problem in that scenario because spending — demand — is weak to start with.

But lowering rates in an inflationary environment strengthens demand when it's already strong, worsening inflation. That's why the Fed is on hold and investors no longer expect the Fed to cut anytime soon.

Trump has openly mused about firing Powell, presumably replacing him with a chair who is more willing to cut rates at the wrong time. Trump is blatantly ignoring the lesson of Richard Nixon's interference with the Fed in the early 1970s, when Nixon pushed Fed Chair Arthur Burns to lower rates to boost the economy and aid Nixon's 1972 reelection bid. That contributed to inflation that peaked above 12% in 1974 and correlated with a recession.

Trump's view of inflation now seems to be that tariffs and protectionism are more important than lowering prices. He wants to reinvigorate US manufacturing and now says the "medicine" is worth it. Most economists say it is not. The economy may have needed targeted fixing when Trump took over in January, but it didn't need the shock treatment Trump is administering.

An obvious question for Trump is whether he's willing to bear the political cost of higher inflation, as Biden did when his approval rating sank and never recovered.

Trump's marks for handling the economy are already falling, hitting 43% in a recent CNBC poll, the lowest mark ever for Trump. His disapproval rating on the economy is 55%, the highest ever. Forty-nine percent of respondents think the economy will get worse, the highest in the CNBC poll series in two years. That's Biden territory. Consumer confidence surveys, meanwhile, show that Americans broadly expect substantial inflation in the coming months and are as gloomy as ever.

Trump's overall approval rating has dropped from 52% in January to 46% today. That's not a huge drop, but again, most of Trump's tariff consequences haven't arrived yet. As prices go higher, Trump's ratings will go lower.

We saw this show during the Biden administration, and the rerun isn't going to play any better.

-- Rick Newman, Yahoo Finance.

It was in 2014 a trade deficit of about $920 billion versus annual GDP of around $31 trillion.

Trump wants to reduce that but of course he does not express specifically what the goals are like reduce the trade deficit by at least 30% and increase the % of manufacturing jobs (out of total jobs) from 9% to 15%.

It's not like Trump is holding a card like Newt Gingrich did that showed the Republican objectives known as Contract with America.

Only Trump knows which I think he's just playing some arbitrage game to get as much as he thinks he can reasonably get.

Trump should at least explain the importance of this in regards to national security like not relying so much on antibiotic supply from China, and using the federal government to help supply antibiotics.

The federal government already owns labs (with the universities and non profits running them), so why not have manufacturing centers owned by government for critical goods like antibiotics and medical equipment ?

Look at how Trump has established a shipbuilding council as an example of a matter of national emergency and security.

Hah!

We've seen nothing yet. Just wait for the executive order for haircuts on the debt.

https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2016/05/what-trump-really-said-about-the-debt-000117/

B.A.C.A.H. says

Hah!

We've seen nothing yet. Just wait for the executive order for haircuts on the debt.

https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2016/05/what-trump-really-said-about-the-debt-000117/

Trump is brainstorming out loud a lot more than he did his first term. That 2016 article link is another example of a Trump trial balloon.

Eventually the public particularly the stock market investors and trader will tune this out more like scent fatigue where you no longer smell a certain extreme scent after being exposed enough to it.

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AD says

Trump should at least explain the importance of this in regards to national security like not relying so much on antibiotic supply from China, and using the federal government to help supply antibiotics.

The federal government already owns labs (with the universities and non profits running them), so why not have manufacturing centers owned by government for critical goods like antibiotics and medical equipment ?

That would make too much sense. Nah, lets slap 100500% tariff on all antibiotics and let the shit sort itself out. "Some of you may die, but this is a sacrifice I'm willing to make" -- Lord Fuckwad.

Eric Holder says

AD says

Trump should at least explain the importance of this in regards to national security like not relying so much on antibiotic supply from China, and using the federal government to help supply antibiotics.

The federal government already owns labs (with the universities and non profits running them), so why not have manufacturing centers owned by government for critical goods like antibiotics and medical equipment ?

That would make too much sense. Nah, lets slap 100500% tariff on all antibiotics and let the shit sort itself out. "Some of you may die, but this is a sacrifice I'm willing to make" -- Lord Fuckwad.

Look at what Trump did for electronics from China such as the IPhone. He backed off and only put a 10% tariff. Some of this is because he gets along well with Tim Cook.

Trump will make adjustments as long as he thinks he is winning which foremost means any improvement over Birdbrain Biden's record like increasing the percentage of jobs that are manufacturing.

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