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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12
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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am 147,342 views 1,539 comments
« First « Previous Comments 416 - 455 of 1,539 Next » Last » Search these comments
416
Patrick
2023 Sep 1, 5:10pm
Patrick
2023 Sep 1, 5:10pm
In this rare instance, the Saudis may actually help America by impeding Pedo Peter.
417
AD
2023 Sep 2, 1:38am
AD
2023 Sep 2, 1:38am
The second revision is noticeably less than the original estimate for each month. They need a recession at least 9 months before the November 2024 election.
That gives the Democrats enough time to claim an economic recovery when campaigning in August through October.
They need 3 months of constant news broadcasting about how the economy has improved, just like Clinton's first campaign was all about "its the economy stupid".
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That gives the Democrats enough time to claim an economic recovery when campaigning in August through October.
They need 3 months of constant news broadcasting about how the economy has improved, just like Clinton's first campaign was all about "its the economy stupid".
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418
AD
2023 Sep 4, 8:44pm
AD
2023 Sep 4, 8:44pm
AI like ChapGPT expected to replace coders, paralegals, teachers, and graphic artists among the jobs most affected.
https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-jobs-at-risk-replacement-artificial-intelligence-ai-labor-trends-2023-02
Is AI going to do to coders like word processing did to clerk typists and it replacing the typist pool at work ?
Or think about how telephone operators had been affected by technology, or even how the US Postal Service has seen a drop in mail due to email, electronic payments, etc.
This means that labor costs will drop some for companies that use AI more, which should mean less inflation.
Look at how a lot of customer service agents are AI and it takes several minutes to work with them to finally chat with a customer service agent who is a real person.
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https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-jobs-at-risk-replacement-artificial-intelligence-ai-labor-trends-2023-02
Is AI going to do to coders like word processing did to clerk typists and it replacing the typist pool at work ?
Or think about how telephone operators had been affected by technology, or even how the US Postal Service has seen a drop in mail due to email, electronic payments, etc.
This means that labor costs will drop some for companies that use AI more, which should mean less inflation.
Look at how a lot of customer service agents are AI and it takes several minutes to work with them to finally chat with a customer service agent who is a real person.
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419
AD
2023 Sep 6, 4:37pm
AD
2023 Sep 6, 4:37pm
Roku to lay off 10% of its workforce as reported by CNBC today. It already laid off about 12% since last November.
Let's track credit card debt delinquencies and the unemployment rate for the next 6 months.
Let's track credit card debt delinquencies and the unemployment rate for the next 6 months.
420
richwicks
2023 Sep 6, 4:46pm
richwicks
2023 Sep 6, 4:46pm
ad says
No. I've played around with it quite a bit. It's very useful for doing basic things really quickly, but ask it to do something difficult and it will produce a result, that doesn't work.
I think it's going to compliment coders considerably actually.
If I ask it to make a CRC32 routine, it will do it. If I ask it to make a web-socket for use with Apache, it will give a solution, but it won't work.
Is AI going to do to coders like word processing did to clerk typists and it replacing the typist pool at work ?
No. I've played around with it quite a bit. It's very useful for doing basic things really quickly, but ask it to do something difficult and it will produce a result, that doesn't work.
I think it's going to compliment coders considerably actually.
If I ask it to make a CRC32 routine, it will do it. If I ask it to make a web-socket for use with Apache, it will give a solution, but it won't work.
421
Patrick
2023 Sep 7, 11:35am
Patrick
2023 Sep 7, 11:35am
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/sep/6/biden-cancels-all-oil-gas-drilling-leases-alaskan-/
Biden's deliberate increases in the cost of oil and gas are the primary driver of inflation.
Biden cancels all oil, gas drilling leases in Alaskan Arctic wildlife refuge...
Interior Department Secretary Deb Haaland authorized the cancellations of seven leases held by Alaska’s state-owned economic development agency, the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, in the remote coastal region that sprawls more than 19 million acres bordering Canada to the east and the Beaufort Sea to the north.
Biden's deliberate increases in the cost of oil and gas are the primary driver of inflation.
422
AD
2023 Sep 7, 3:03pm
AD
2023 Sep 7, 3:03pm
Debt GDP ratio steadying around 120%. It was around 105% when Obama left office. It peaked in 2021 around 135%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/gfdegdq188S
Debt interest has increased so that means greater deficits
https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/federal-budget-deficit-projected-to-double-to-2-trillion-us-debt-government-spending-gdp-interest-rates-social-security-medicare-program-reform
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/gfdegdq188S
Debt interest has increased so that means greater deficits
https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/federal-budget-deficit-projected-to-double-to-2-trillion-us-debt-government-spending-gdp-interest-rates-social-security-medicare-program-reform
424
AD
2023 Sep 14, 7:40pm
AD
2023 Sep 14, 7:40pm
The same style car would cost about $40,000 and the median wage is around $58,000.
Back in 1968 the median wage was around $8,000 and this car is priced around $3,000.
It just shows how much cars costs in regards to purchasing power of the median wage owner :-(
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Back in 1968 the median wage was around $8,000 and this car is priced around $3,000.
It just shows how much cars costs in regards to purchasing power of the median wage owner :-(
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425
AD
2023 Sep 14, 9:09pm
AD
2023 Sep 14, 9:09pm
I received this today via email. Amazon getting into telemedicine. I wonder if this type of service will help to keep medical costs down and if insurance companies will encourage its use. Also, Amazon Pharmacy has been in operating since 2020.
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426
richwicks
2023 Sep 14, 10:34pm
richwicks
2023 Sep 14, 10:34pm
ad says
No.
The purpose is to reduce costs for them, not for you.
I wonder if this type of service will help to keep medical costs down
No.
The purpose is to reduce costs for them, not for you.
427
Misc
2023 Sep 15, 12:19pm
Because everything happens in a vacuum...let's just raise wages...that will give workers a benefit. Other prices????? Higher wages won't lead to those going up, and besides government workers will get a COLA.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/mcdonald-s-franchisee-group-says-new-california-fast-food-bill-will-cause-devastating-financial-blow/ar-AA1gMpw6?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=5e0083dba2e542ca92ee16e328cf57dd&ei=38
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/mcdonald-s-franchisee-group-says-new-california-fast-food-bill-will-cause-devastating-financial-blow/ar-AA1gMpw6?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=5e0083dba2e542ca92ee16e328cf57dd&ei=38
428
Misc
2023 Sep 15, 12:28pm
When you sell 180 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Reserve, and the price of oil subsequently drops below $70 a barrel; you look like a hero.
When you forget to restock the Reserve at that lower price and oil goes higher than where you sold it at....welll....you look like a Putz.
When you forget to restock the Reserve at that lower price and oil goes higher than where you sold it at....welll....you look like a Putz.
430
Patrick
2023 Sep 16, 9:08am
Patrick
2023 Sep 16, 9:08am
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/09/david-stockman/the-bls-pointy-heads-and-monetary-mission-impossible/
It was CPI day. So it might be expected that some anomaly in the monthly data would provide a timely reminder that Washington’s main inflation index isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. In the context of our Monetary Mission Impossible series, it also provides further proof that the Fed’s fanatical quest to reach its 2.00% inflation goal is utterly misguided.
As it happens, the number -33.6% contained in the August CPI report fulfills both of these expectations and then some. This figure supposedly represents the Y/Y plunge in the cost of medical insurance!
That’s right. Anything connected to the medical delivery system was up by hefty amounts in August on a Y/Y basis, but the thundering collapse (purportedly) of health insurance costs allegedly saved the day. As shown below, according to the BLS the index for overall medical services was down -2.1% on a Y/Y basis in August when all of its other components where positive, some of them like dental care and home health services strikingly so.
Y/Y Change In CPI Medical Services And Its Components:
Dental services: +5.3%;
Eye care:+3.4%;
Physicians: +0.3%;
Home health services: +6.9%;
Hospital services:+3.0%;
Nursing home care: +6.1%;
Health insurance: -33.6%;
Overall Medical Care Services: -2.1%
... Yet that’s where the monetary politburo now finds itself impaled. That is, squinting at 27% of the CPI (i.e. the supercore) in order to calibrate its anti-inflation “tools” when this sawed-off inflation metric is so distorted by the BLS’s whacko health insurance proxy that it’s not worth the paper it’s printed on.
431
AD
2023 Sep 17, 12:28am
AD
2023 Sep 17, 12:28am
Unemployment rate is 3.8%. It was as low as 3.5% right before the pandemic started. Healthy unemployment rate is between 4% and 6%.
I am not sure how high it may go for the next recession, but we have a way to go for unemployment to get to that point.
I suspect when it reaches around 5.5% then we may be near the middle of the next recession.
An inflation rate between 4% and 6% corresponds to keeping wage inflation in check as the labor market has tightened however the market is still near or at full employment conditions.
I read Google has conducted another round of layoffs, this time to its recruiters workforce; it has indicated it is hiring less. That's a good sign as far as the labor market tightening so that inflation may continue to decrease.
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I am not sure how high it may go for the next recession, but we have a way to go for unemployment to get to that point.
I suspect when it reaches around 5.5% then we may be near the middle of the next recession.
An inflation rate between 4% and 6% corresponds to keeping wage inflation in check as the labor market has tightened however the market is still near or at full employment conditions.
I read Google has conducted another round of layoffs, this time to its recruiters workforce; it has indicated it is hiring less. That's a good sign as far as the labor market tightening so that inflation may continue to decrease.
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432
AD
2023 Sep 17, 12:35am
AD
2023 Sep 17, 12:35am
Patrick says
Eventually the accountants are going to have to adjust this. And it is going to have to be adjusted by the end of this year, not right after the November 2024 election.
If at best, health insurance will go up 3% from December 2022 to December 2023. My estimate is that overall medical care services will finish between +6% to +10% for the end of 2024.
But no way will this aggregate or component remain in negative double digits or even negative single digits going into 2024.
Health insurance: -33.6%;
Eventually the accountants are going to have to adjust this. And it is going to have to be adjusted by the end of this year, not right after the November 2024 election.
If at best, health insurance will go up 3% from December 2022 to December 2023. My estimate is that overall medical care services will finish between +6% to +10% for the end of 2024.
But no way will this aggregate or component remain in negative double digits or even negative single digits going into 2024.
434
AD
2023 Sep 17, 12:31pm
AD
2023 Sep 17, 12:31pm
Misc says
Yeah, look at the timing of this. It started around March 2022 and ended around mid October 2022 (right before the midterm election). If gas prices stayed high in 2022, then I don't know if the Dems would have fared well in the House election.
Birdbrain Biden is fucked cause now OPEC and Russia is cutting production and the price of gas has gone up. He cannot tap the depleted reserves like he
did in 2022 leading into the 2024 election.
restock the Reserve
Yeah, look at the timing of this. It started around March 2022 and ended around mid October 2022 (right before the midterm election). If gas prices stayed high in 2022, then I don't know if the Dems would have fared well in the House election.
Birdbrain Biden is fucked cause now OPEC and Russia is cutting production and the price of gas has gone up. He cannot tap the depleted reserves like he
did in 2022 leading into the 2024 election.
435
AD
2023 Sep 17, 10:29pm
AD
2023 Sep 17, 10:29pm
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Focus on workforce participation such as prime working age (25 to 54 years)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060
Look at the overall (all age groups) labor participation percentage rate (62.8%) and it is only 0.5% below Feb 2020 level, and only 4.5% below its peak in late 2000.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
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Work for home doesn't apply for jobs with a lot of vacancies like air condition repair, nursing home attendant, car mechanic, etc.
Need more worker supply for those service areas to help bring down CPI and PCE services
Unless there are significantly more productivity gains such as more reliable air conditioners and cars which need less repair, etc.
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Focus on workforce participation such as prime working age (25 to 54 years)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060
Look at the overall (all age groups) labor participation percentage rate (62.8%) and it is only 0.5% below Feb 2020 level, and only 4.5% below its peak in late 2000.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
.
Work for home doesn't apply for jobs with a lot of vacancies like air condition repair, nursing home attendant, car mechanic, etc.
Need more worker supply for those service areas to help bring down CPI and PCE services
Unless there are significantly more productivity gains such as more reliable air conditioners and cars which need less repair, etc.
.
436
richwicks
2023 Sep 17, 10:44pm
richwicks
2023 Sep 17, 10:44pm
ad says
You've seen ballot fraud magic once.
Birdbrain Biden is fucked cause now OPEC and Russia is cutting production and the price of gas has gone up.
You've seen ballot fraud magic once.
437
AD
2023 Sep 18, 12:50am
AD
2023 Sep 18, 12:50am
need robots and automation to increase productivity if the total worker participation rate is going to continue to decline due to demographics ...unless people continue to work at least part time between the ages of 65 and 80 ....
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438
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 18, 5:52am
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 18, 5:52am
Check out inflation in Lebanon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_liquidity_crisis
There is also significant inflation, which caused a massive loss of purchasing power and an increase in poverty. The price of foule or ful, a fava bean common in the region, was up 550% in March 2020 over a year earlier. Sugar has seen an increase of 670%, while wheat, tea, rice, and cigarettes have all gone up nearly 1,000% over the same period.
Argentina and Turkey also having massive inflation.
And our all time favorite Zimbabwe:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zimbabwe's inflation rate shot up from 66% to more than 130% in May 2022. By June 2022, it surged again to 191%.
And of course Wikipedia is blaming the war instead of money printing for inflation, because they have an agenda.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_liquidity_crisis
There is also significant inflation, which caused a massive loss of purchasing power and an increase in poverty. The price of foule or ful, a fava bean common in the region, was up 550% in March 2020 over a year earlier. Sugar has seen an increase of 670%, while wheat, tea, rice, and cigarettes have all gone up nearly 1,000% over the same period.
Argentina and Turkey also having massive inflation.
And our all time favorite Zimbabwe:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zimbabwe's inflation rate shot up from 66% to more than 130% in May 2022. By June 2022, it surged again to 191%.
And of course Wikipedia is blaming the war instead of money printing for inflation, because they have an agenda.
440
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Sep 18, 11:54pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2023 Sep 18, 11:54pm
zzyzzx says
Rhodesia is still a food exporter. So one would think their current account is in surplus.
Basically, they were using foreign notes...then switched to a new currency but wrecked it like all the others.
On the plus side, they are supposedly adopting a gold system this year. Let's see if the gold held in reserve gets stolen.
...or even if this happens at all.
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zimbabwe's inflation rate shot up from 66% to more than 130% in May 2022. By June 2022, it surged again to 191%.
And of course Wikipedia is blaming the war instead of money printing for inflation, because they have an agenda.
Rhodesia is still a food exporter. So one would think their current account is in surplus.
Basically, they were using foreign notes...then switched to a new currency but wrecked it like all the others.
On the plus side, they are supposedly adopting a gold system this year. Let's see if the gold held in reserve gets stolen.
...or even if this happens at all.
In April 2023, the government announced the introduction of digital currencies backed by gold reserves. The digital money will be allowed to be transferred for people and business as a form of payment via e-gold wallets or e-gold cards.
442
Robert Sproul
2023 Sep 19, 7:28am
ad says
This is why the southern border is wide open I would reckon. The influx of 7 MILLION people from all over the world since Biden 'took' office might have some impact.
Some of them will probably get jobs.
need robots and automation to increase productivity if the total worker participation rate is going to continue to decline due to demographics
This is why the southern border is wide open I would reckon. The influx of 7 MILLION people from all over the world since Biden 'took' office might have some impact.
Some of them will probably get jobs.
445
AD
2023 Sep 19, 11:46am
AD
2023 Sep 19, 11:46am
Biden went full krazy reading the script handed to him about oil and gas. Even Obama was careful and nuanced. And now the Saudis are going to make Birdbrain Biden pay for this for the next 12 months.
Unless Biden makes some deals to get oil prices to drop between now and the 2024 election, and then rise again after the election.
Look at how he used the strategic oil reserves from March to October 2022 and then oil prices rises again after the midterm election. That helped to make sure the House was not taken over by a large Republican majority.
Unless Biden makes some deals to get oil prices to drop between now and the 2024 election, and then rise again after the election.
Look at how he used the strategic oil reserves from March to October 2022 and then oil prices rises again after the midterm election. That helped to make sure the House was not taken over by a large Republican majority.
448
AD
2023 Sep 20, 11:20pm
AD
2023 Sep 20, 11:20pm
I think they will not lower interest rates unless CPI and PCE remain at or below 1.75% annual for at least 4 months. The Fed would keep rates the same i both remain between 2 and 3% annual. Look at recent seasonal hiring announcements by Target and Amazon; I wonder if its going to be a good Christmas this year.
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451
AD
2023 Sep 21, 2:10pm
AD
2023 Sep 21, 2:10pm
Fear and Greed Index back in fear territory for the first time since March 2023 (except for a brief moment last month).
S&P 500 about 11% below its all time high (~4825), and at July 2021 levels.
The S&P 500 may not return to 4825 for another year and at least 2.5 years since it was set in December 2021. I don't think it will be 20% above 4825 before 1 January 2025.
Asset prices remain down which will mean less capital gains to drive up inflation. Also lower asset prices like stocks make people feel poorer and less inclined to spend money.
I wonder if we'll have a soft landing as Jerome Powell has mentioned.
S&P 500 about 11% below its all time high (~4825), and at July 2021 levels.
The S&P 500 may not return to 4825 for another year and at least 2.5 years since it was set in December 2021. I don't think it will be 20% above 4825 before 1 January 2025.
Asset prices remain down which will mean less capital gains to drive up inflation. Also lower asset prices like stocks make people feel poorer and less inclined to spend money.
I wonder if we'll have a soft landing as Jerome Powell has mentioned.
452
AD
2023 Sep 23, 2:37pm
AD
2023 Sep 23, 2:37pm
no significant real gain in the S&P 500 over the last 2.5 years
no productivity gains or innovation
S&P 500 is up 30% since February 2020
yet overall inflation is 25% since February 2020
a few more daily drops in the S&P 500 and its real gain will be at best 0% for the last 2.5 years 🙁
no productivity gains or innovation
S&P 500 is up 30% since February 2020
yet overall inflation is 25% since February 2020
a few more daily drops in the S&P 500 and its real gain will be at best 0% for the last 2.5 years 🙁
453
AD
2023 Sep 23, 2:39pm
AD
2023 Sep 23, 2:39pm
Track and monitor the following:
Purchasing Managers Index
Baltic Dry Index
PCE and CPI
unemployment rate
employment participation rate (for all age groups and 25 to 54 years range)
credit card delinquency and default rates
S&P 500 real earnings growth
CNN Fear and Greed Index
Purchasing Managers Index
Baltic Dry Index
PCE and CPI
unemployment rate
employment participation rate (for all age groups and 25 to 54 years range)
credit card delinquency and default rates
S&P 500 real earnings growth
CNN Fear and Greed Index
454
AD
2023 Sep 24, 12:59am
AD
2023 Sep 24, 12:59am
The federal deficit is expected to be $2 trillion this year, largely due higher US Treasury interest rates. Lets hope tax revenue increases to reduce the deficit and debt to GDP ratio.
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455
AD
2023 Sep 24, 1:07am
AD
2023 Sep 24, 1:07am
Read below. This is the Orwellian double-speak the left wing media and Democrats are promoting about the economy being so good.
The economy is not good as tax receipts are down or not enough to restrain the deficit.
The economy is not growing fast enough to reduce the debt to GDP ratio.
My concern is that admin state or bureaucracy will start to further massage the economic data to try to convince the masses the economy is doing well (while conversely prices still remain high at the grocery store and gas pump).
*********
"What's happening: Bigger interest payments + lower tax receipts, despite strong economic growth.
"A strong economy usually reduces the deficit. Not this time," Stein writes."
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/04/federal-deficit-double-despite-economic-growth
The economy is not good as tax receipts are down or not enough to restrain the deficit.
The economy is not growing fast enough to reduce the debt to GDP ratio.
My concern is that admin state or bureaucracy will start to further massage the economic data to try to convince the masses the economy is doing well (while conversely prices still remain high at the grocery store and gas pump).
*********
"What's happening: Bigger interest payments + lower tax receipts, despite strong economic growth.
"A strong economy usually reduces the deficit. Not this time," Stein writes."
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/04/federal-deficit-double-despite-economic-growth
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https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati
Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.
EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net