patrick.net

I would like to pointlessly point out where we are today.

I can download a 2 hour film to my Android phone through FTP in about 2 minutes, that is 1080p, through a wireless connection.

Is there really a demand to reduce that time? Is it's even physically possible?

Look at where we are, many things we have are things I didn't dream would be possible in my lifetime as a young adult and I was an engineering student 30 years ago. Copying a video tape or an audio tape? At best, you could do it at 2x the speed of the actual data, now you can do it at 1000x the speed and the duplication is perfect, no degradation.

We have infinite access to information, digital communication across the world is possible, every video game I ever played, I have on a hard disk, plus 20,000 more for preservation. Every television series or film I ever saw or wanted to see, I can TRIVIALLY store. It's a different time than it was 40 years ago.

All this power for preservation of information is available to the public now and all we have left to do is make it easier to share. Centralized control is going to be based on merit, not power. This really is a new age.

HeadSet says

richwicks says

I am old enough to remember stuff from the 1800's being used.

My grandma had a Singer sewing machine from the 1800s that was powered by a foot treadle. Worked for her because she had no electricity. If I could find that machine I bet it still works as long as I can find a needle.

Pretty cool shit isn't it?

I was always somewhat amazed at the early tools. My parents have a Babbage machine calculator. It's clunky, it's slow, but it's an amazing piece of machinery. It's just a crappy calculator by today's standards.

I would bet less than 1 in 100,000 people understand how a computer chip works, and 1 in a million know how to build one, and they only understand how to build a PART of it. You can understand a Babbage machine. Even refining a silicon boule, that takes an expert. All my work is built on top of experts, and I'm just one in the chain.

Being an expert in technology isn't what it's cracked up to be either, your specialty is quickly obsoleted. "Hey, I know exactly how this very specific thing works!".... that's been made obsolete.

I've been an expert in many areas. I used to rewrite routines in assembly for computer chips, to reduce computation time by 50%, because that routine was called so often, so I optimized it. I can't do better than a machine can today. Even if I can reduce the number of instructions, memory fetches to the cache fucks it up, and it's no faster. Technology has tremendously changed in my lifetime, and now I think we're reaching stability, I don't think we can improve it much more.

The idea I could watch a film on my computer, much less my phone - do you realize how unimaginable this was 30 years ago? A toy can do it. It's crazy.

Oh, and by the way, the same device can do actual nuclear fission bomb simulations. We all have it now. We had export restrictions on the PS2 (even though it was not made in the US) because it could be put into a Beowulf configuration to make a super computer. You have that in your pocket now.

Your phone, and I don't care what sort of phone you have, would put a Cray supercomputer to shame. Nearly everybody has this incredible power.

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CPI report today

12 month inflation (or annual inflation) at 3.7%

Inflation increased 0.4% from August to September

12 month core inflation (does not include food and energy) at 4.1%

Next month the health insurance adjustment does not apply so expect annual inflation to increase at least by 0.6% just based on this

I am hoping that prices drop a lot this month to compensate for this adjustment and that the annual inflation rate remains below 4%.

On the bright side, annual inflation peaked about 9.1% last summer, so we are at least trending at a desirable rate now that we are at 3.7% .
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ad says

September

12 month core inflation (does not include food and energy) at 4.1%

Nor rent or interest rates (cost of money).

Since Biden took office, cumulative inflation of nearly 20 percent means that the government has effectively vaporized one-fifth of voters’ savings and purchasing power. Unlike a stock market decline, this is lost money and buying power that cannot be recovered in the future.

https://supermacro.substack.com/p/for-joe-its-all-downhill-from-here

PedoIwog says

Since Biden took office, cumulative inflation of nearly 20 percent means that the government has effectively vaporized one-fifth of voters’ savings and purchasing power. Unlike a stock market decline, this is lost money and buying power that cannot be recovered in the future.

I understand and agree. That is why you have to protect your money at least put it in assets like stocks.

I just hope that for at least the next 3 years income increases are greater than inflation so that income catches up with prices like on rent.

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PedoIwog says

this is lost money and buying power that cannot be recovered in the future.

In theory, if we can somehow ever manage to get some deflation that purchasing power can be recovered. There is literally a zero percent chance of that happening.

PedoIwog says

Since Biden took office, cumulative inflation of nearly 20 percent means that the government has effectively vaporized one-fifth of voters’ savings and purchasing power.

Yes. but since debtors outnumber savers, this will have little political impact. Some debtors will notice if the credit card interest rates go up, but other debtors will only notice if the minimum payment increases.

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S&P 500 at 4330

Based on 25% inflation since February 2020, its real return is nearly 0%

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zzyzzx says

In theory, if we can somehow ever manage to get some deflation that purchasing power can be recovered. There is literally a zero percent chance of that happening.

Disinflation (i.e., reduction in the inflation rate) is only possible. I hope income (includes Social Security and VA disability recipients) at least increases at a rate of 1% greater than inflation each year for the next 7 years.

The last time I'm aware of deflation was around 2009 and the Great Depression.

One of my favorite inflation stocks is Cal-Maine Foods Inc .... I monitor it versus the average cost of a dozen eggs ...

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ad says

I am hoping that prices drop a lot this month to compensate for this adjustment and that the annual inflation rate remains below 4%.

What matters to me is my personal inflation rate. On a massive spread sheet, I track the prices of nearly everything I spend on, except discretionary sh*t like eating out, live sports, travel. Including income and property taxes.

My household's personal annual inflation rate this month is 5.64%

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assume 4% annual inflation since 1970, so $2395 in 1970 is $19,146 in 2023 dollars
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seemed like prices were reasonable compared to minimum wage back then ... the 19 cents hot dog in 1977 would be $1.15 in 2023 dollars based on annual inflation rate of 4% ... $2.30 an hour was minimum wage in 1977
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ad says

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seemed like prices were reasonable compared to minimum wage back then ... the 19 cents hot dog in 1977 would be $1.15 in 2023 dollars based on annual inflation rate of 4% ... $2.30 an hour was minimum wage in 1977
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Only thing that comes close to that now a days is the Costco Dog and Fountain drink for $1.50

https://babylonbee.com/cleanArticle/terrifying-haunted-house-just-displays-current-gas-and-grocery-prices-along-dark-creepy-hallways

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https://nypost.com/2023/09/04/credit-card-and-car-loan-defaults-hit-10-year-high-as-inflation-squeezes-families/

credit card and car loan defaults at 10 year high :-(

all symptoms of a recession

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Selective inflation in ammo: 22LR real cheap (less than 5 c per round), but 7.62x39 expensive, almost 50 c per round occasionally. I wonder why…

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22LR is good to shot off to scare anyone away that is somewhat easy to scare off

then use 9 mm and 5.56 NATO for the more hardened or psychotic intruders like Hamas terrorists ... only 20 cents a round approximately for 9 mm. I remember it was $1 a round....

note that Wall St Journal reported someone fired a 9 mm round at the thighs of a Hamas terrorist in a kibbutz raid and the terrorists fled after getting fired on ...

https://ammoseek.com/ammo/5.56x45mm-nato

https://ammoseek.com/ammo/9mm-luger?co=new

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"In response to the US Treasury Department figures released Friday, Kogan said that "roughly 75%" of the surge in the deficit and the debt ratio, the amount of federal debt relative to the overall size of the economy, was due to revenue decreases resulting from GOP-approved tax cuts over recent decades. "Of the remaining 25%," he said, "more than half" was higher interest payments on the debt related to Federal Reserve policy."

"We have a revenue problem, due to tax cuts," said Kogan, pointing to the major tax laws enacted under the administrations of George W. Bush and Donald Trump. "The Bush and Trump tax cuts broke our modern tax structure. Revenue is significantly lower and no longer grows much with the economy."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-bush-tax-cuts-fuel-growing-deficits

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ad says

"In response to the US Treasury Department figures released Friday, Kogan said that "roughly 75%" of the surge in the deficit and the debt ratio, the amount of federal debt relative to the overall size of the economy, was due to revenue decreases resulting from GOP-approved tax cuts over recent decades. "Of the remaining 25%," he said, "more than half" was higher interest payments on the debt related to Federal Reserve policy."

They go through a lot of trouble to avoid simply charting actual REVENUES after the tax cuts. The deficit is because spending exceeded the revenue gain.

HeadSet says

ad says

"In response to the US Treasury Department figures released Friday, Kogan said that "roughly 75%" of the surge in the deficit and the debt ratio, the amount of federal debt relative to the overall size of the economy, was due to revenue decreases resulting from GOP-approved tax cuts over recent decades. "Of the remaining 25%," he said, "more than half" was higher interest payments on the debt related to Federal Reserve policy."

They go through a lot of trouble to avoid simply charting actual REVENUES after the tax cuts. The deficit is because spending exceeded the revenue gain.

There has been a lot of new spending besides for the Pentagon. Look at how Medicare prescription program and the 9/11 GI Bill were among the new spending programs over the last 20 years. They need to slowly reduce the rate of spending increases such as 0.5% below the inflation rate for each year of the next 5 year period to see if this helps to reduce annual deficits and debt.

"From 2010 through 2016, the Veterans Benefits Administration spent $65 billion on educational benefits for 1.6 million veterans, spouses and children, mostly for veterans' tuition, fees, and housing. In 2016, VBA spent an average of $17,400 per beneficiary."

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And the Congressional Democrats proposed a 2024 budget that increases spending by 5.1% from 2023.

I hope they are just putting that out there with an intent of willing to negotiate an increase at no more than 3.25% (and no more than the annual inflation rate).

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so much for asset (i.e., stocks, ETFs and mutual funds) appreciation ...

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https://wolfstreet.com/2023/10/27/powells-gonna-have-a-cow-when-he-sees-the-pce-inflation-spikes-in-core-services-housing-and-non-housing-core-services/

PumpingRedheads says

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/10/27/powells-gonna-have-a-cow-when-he-sees-the-pce-inflation-spikes-in-core-services-housing-and-non-housing-core-services/

I look forward to reading more about this on Wolfman's website.

Overall inflation measured in terms of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is tracking down and is steady around 3.4% for last 12 months

I think this statistic will slowly track down to 3% within next 6 months and the "new accepted norm" will be annual inflation at or below 3.25%

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2023

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The S&P 500 is at 4117 and its peak before the pandemic was in February 2020 at 3380.

Inflation has been about 20% since February 2020, so the S&P 500's real return is 21.8% minus 20% or 1.8% since February 2020 :-/

QE and a Fed Funds rate at 5.5% (the highest in 23 years) is appearing to have an effect on asset inflation in regards to the stock market.

Also see below as if you factor out the top 10 companies like Google, Microsoft and Apple, the S&P 500 would be faring a lot worse.
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ad says

Overall inflation measured in terms of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is tracking down and is steady around 3.4% for last 12 months

I think this statistic will slowly track down to 3% within next 6 months and the "new accepted norm" will be annual inflation at or below 3.25%

That's a bogus stat.

PumpingRedheads says

ad says

Overall inflation measured in terms of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is tracking down and is steady around 3.4% for last 12 months

I think this statistic will slowly track down to 3% within next 6 months and the "new accepted norm" will be annual inflation at or below 3.25%

That's a bogus stat.

It at least provides a trend in regards to the direction of consumer inflation.

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We are in a conundrum as far as avoiding debt crisis ... look at it interest payments almost doubling since 2020 from ~$500 billion to ~$980 billion :-(

Going to have to make cuts such as to entitlements and maybe raise taxes as well ... the smartest they could do is just increase spending by 1/2 of the inflation rate for the next 4 years to see if this leads to any fiscal improvement such as with debt to GDP ratio...

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Not enough workers and inflation causing the first McDonald's in Panama City, Florida to shut down : https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/local-news/bay-county/panama-city/first-bay-county-mcdonalds-location-closing-its-doors/

Also the budget-minded hotels (i.e., at least 4 miles from Panama City's beach) are having problems finding workers: https://www.wjhg.com/2023/10/30/panama-city-hotels-struggling-with-worker-shortages/

These service industries (fast food and budget-minded hotels) need to figure out fast how to innovate to increase productivity. They need to streamline. This means less workers but at much higher compensation, for example. Offer performance bonuses, profit sharing, etc.

Chili's restaurant has been innovating and I read it is faring a lot better than TGI Fridays and Applebees as far as holding down costs and earning profits.

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Arizona (we've had a huge amount of Californians flee to my state) has gone down California's pathway to madness because the transplants vote in the failed policies they are fleeing from. Arizona raised its minimum wage from $10.50/hr in 2018 to $13.85/hr in 2023. Funny enough that inflation has been high in the rest of the country, but since policy changes don't happen in a vacuum. it has been even higher in Arizona.

So, to combat the scourges of inflation on the vulnerable populations (those 750000 families in the lower income brackets), the Arizona State government in its glorious wisdom has decided to send them "free money". It is going to send them $750 to each family in those lower income brackets, I'm sure that if this causes prices to rise even higher...why even more "free money" will be sent.

ad says

These service industries (fast food and budget-minded hotels) need to figure out fast how to innovate to increase productivity. They need to streamline. This means less workers but at much higher compensation, for example. Offer performance bonuses, profit sharing, etc.

All business are trying to find way to increase productivity, good times or bad. Telling a business to "increase productivity" is like advising a drowning person "you need to find a way to get some air."

Economy is slowing down. Less likelihood for another Fed Funds rate hike.

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ISM Manufacturing Plunges to 46.7 Percent. New Orders, Backlogs in Contraction

Economists expected the ISM® manufacturing PMI® to hold steady at 49.0. Instead, it went into significant contraction with a steep drop in employment

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Federal Reserve announced today it is not raising the Fed Funds rate this month. The current rate 5.5% and at a 23 year high.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/11/01/feds-interest-rates-live-updates/71343892007/
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ad says

Federal Reserve announced today it is not raising the Fed Funds rate this month.

Unfortunate.