patrick.net

The Fed is getting caught between a rock and a hard place.

1) They get pressured to lower rates due to high debt service for the new issued bonds.

2) They get pressured to lower rates due to the amount of losses and stress they put on the bank and their balance sheets.

3) They get pressured to lower rates because this is the election year.

Everything is not rosy as it looks on the surface

Eman says

1) They get pressured to lower rates due to high debt service for the new issued bonds.

Yeah Mister Eman, that is why the federal budget should increase no more than at a rate equal to annual inflation. And they need to cut spending slightly to use the savings to pay down the debt.

They can do this as painless as possible for a 5 to 7 year duration in order to reduce the debt to GDP ratio as well as interest payment to GDP ratio.

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Why in the world would the Fed lower interest rates at all this year? Wages are outpacing CPI by about 1.4% on an annual basis. The effects of an increase in minimum wages for 25 states that implemented them still have not fully percolated through the system, and the unemployment rate is at 3.7%. Additionally, it looks like every month there is a couple hundred thousand additional Americans that think they can get ahead by taking a 2nd part time gig.

On the fiscal side, the federal government is forecasted to spend an extra $2 trillion more than it is bringing in. This is before the more free money programs that are currently in the works. We've got an enhanced Child credit coming for about $90 billion extra (we can argue whether it is good policy or not, but it is inflationary). Then there are the extra free money initiatives for aid to the Ukraine and Israel.

We already have deflation in goods. It is services that show the inflation. We would have even more price reductions in goods, but the Biden administration WANTS higher prices. Tariffs on Chinese made crap (especially keeping their electric cars outta America) inflated the price of goods.

With unemployment at 3.7%, let's just say that employers have to hire the less than best. Productivity growth...well that can be something hoped for.

As far as the other pieces of "free money": rents, equities and real estate, those seem to be at all time highs. (Ok, office buildings are in a bit of a dumper, but all other classes are at all time highs). The banks are just now getting around to advertising for people to pull money out of their home equity via HELOCs.

Additionally, corporations are continuing their debt binge by issuing a record amount of bonds.

So, the higher interest rates haven't slowed the overall economy at all.

Misc says

Why in the world would the Fed lower interest rates at all this year?

Because the fed mostly does the wrong things.

Misc says

Why in the world would the Fed lower interest rates at all this year?

Politics.

Inflation has already entrenched in our lives. 2% YoY inflation on top of 309.7 (red line) basis is not the same as 2% above 280.4 (blue line) basis.



https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1757886237220708802?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

In a system of pure capitalism productivity would always be improving (how could it be otherwise?) and you would never experience inflation - it would only be deflation.

The fact that we have ANY inflation represents how far we are from capitalism.

In a system of pure capitalism there would be no profits.

The fact that there are profits shows how far we are from capitalism.

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Yes, the Federal Reserve may lower rates no later than 4 months before the upcoming November election because of political pressure from the likes of Senator Pocahontas.

Real median household income (adjusted for inflation) was the same from 1998 to 2014, whereas CAGR for S&P 500 was 5.04% during same period (reference: MoneyChimp.com). That 17 year period was an economically lost period.

Real median household income steadily increased from 1982 to 1997. This was a golden economic period.
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And if you see the above chart, about from 2007 to 2015 there were no real gains in household income. More specifically, income was not keeping up with inflation, even with government inflation being reported as low.

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Misc says

In a system of pure capitalism there would be no profits.

Only in commodities.

only $4.44 for Walmart Great Value brand pizza ... supreme pizza, rising crust, 1 pound 13 ounces ...

Walmart on 23rd street in Panama City Florida

AD says

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And if you see the above chart, about from 2007 to 2015 there were no real gains in household income. More specifically, income was not keeping up with inflation, even with government inflation being reported as low.

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The same could be said about 1989 to 1995?

IIRC, Fed Daly is the SF Fed president. It will be interesting to watch what the Fed will do in the coming months.



https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1758560951786143892?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

Eman says

IIRC, Fed Daly is the SF Fed president. It will be interesting to watch what the Fed will do in the coming months.

She's a Democrat hack. She considers Janet Yellen as her mentor. No surprise she wants to lower rates to help Biden in an election year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_C._Daly

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Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Yup, don’t just look at YoY. Look at the last 3 years since Covid and zero interest Fed fund rate. Inflation has entrenched in our daily life. The economy has to experience deflation for several years to get us back to the Fed’s 2% historical trend line. Scary to think of this scenario

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Ultimately it is based on median real income for households. Is income keeping up with living expenses ?

Also how accurate does the government account for inflation (especially during an election year with a Democrat in the White House) ?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

2019: $78,250

2022: $74,580

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Another shrinkflation pic:

zzyzzx says

Another shrinkflation pic:

I can't imagine any woman being happy with opening that box.

Patrick says

I can't imagine any woman being happy with opening that box.

Yes, and you give this, you won't be opening her box.

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No more all-you-can-eat at Red Lobster: https://www.the-sun.com/money/10460920/red-lobster-makes-change-deal-customers-losses/

With inflation such as wage increases and food, its hard for a restaurant deal like this to be sustainable.

Florida has been increasing the minimum wage for tipped employees by $1 each year. Its now $8.98 and increases by a dollar for each year until September 2026. In 2027, the state of Florida will revert back to using inflation rates to adjust its minimum wage rates.

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Example of great deals for food in Florida panhandle... Piggly Wiggly digital coupon

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Only $6.99 for an Italian sub at Publix ... bet you don't get good deals like that in California , and I don't think there is Publix there

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I mentioned that the minimum wage increases for 25 States haven't worked their way through the economic system yet. This along the COLAs for social security and government employees and government retirees have boosted the Wall Street forecasts for the PCE indicator to the highest reading in about a year. These will continue to trickle through via higher rents especially. There are further State mandated pay hikes coming later this year as well.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-favored-inflation-gauge-seen-210000759.html

Misc says

I mentioned that the minimum wage increases for 25 States haven't worked their way through the economic system yet. This along the COLAs for social security and government employees and government retirees have boosted the Wall Street forecasts for the PCE indicator to the highest reading in about a year. These will continue to trickle through via higher rents especially. There are further State mandated pay hikes coming later this year as well.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-favored-inflation-gauge-seen-210000759.html

Good point, as Florida tip workers minimum wage recently received a $1 raise for 2024 to $8.98, and $12 for non-tip worker minimum wage. Most place on Panama City Beach have tip jars in front like casual barbecue restaurants where you order upfront. They start pay at $14 an hour for those who work the front and are a lot of high school students. The cooks get $18 an hour and share the tips.

California now has a $16 minimum wage as of 1 January 2024. How do the service workers in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles fare ? I mentioned how service workers in the Florida panhandle fare such as renting a 3 bedroom townhome within 2 miles of the beach.

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I'm seeing more deals like this. I am not sure if this is mostly local or Florida only as far as Walmart rollbacks.

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