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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12


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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am   148,448 views  1,541 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (9)   💰tip   ignore  

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:
https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

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769   AmericanKulak   2024 Feb 26, 2:55pm  

Great work, @zzyzzx
770   HeadSet   2024 Feb 26, 3:08pm  

All the pics of inflation above are at foreign stores. Looks like Britain.
771   AmericanKulak   2024 Feb 26, 3:13pm  

Canada. But it certainly is happening in the US. Half Gallon ice cream is long gone, Mac N' Cheese is 10-15% less in package size than a few years ago, etc.
772   HeadSet   2024 Feb 26, 5:39pm  

AmericanKulak says

Canada. But it certainly is happening in the US. Half Gallon ice cream is long gone, Mac N' Cheese is 10-15% less in package size than a few years ago, etc.

It seems like decreased portions would affect the obesity epidemic.
773   zzyzzx   2024 Feb 27, 4:47am  

HeadSet says

All the pics of inflation above are at foreign stores. Looks like Britain.

Clearly some of them are, but clearly not all.
774   Misc   2024 Feb 27, 1:00pm  

If prices are too high...well just give the peasants more "Free" money to buy the crap with. That will solve everything.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/americans-to-get-5-000-to-shop-under-new-bill/vi-BB1iZ0HA?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=164f7400db6f4074ae130d350677c684&ei=18
776   AD   2024 Feb 27, 7:12pm  

.

From the Employ Bay County - Florida page on Facebook. $14 an hour to start at Wendys in Panama City 23rd Street (near the Walmart). Likely is negotiable to $15 an hour.

Florida minimum wage is $12 an hour and goes up to $13 and hour next September, to $14 in Sept 2025 and $15 in Sept 2026.
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777   AD   2024 Feb 28, 9:37pm  

PCE is reported tomorrow.

What is your forecast for January 2024 ? Will annual PCE increase but at least continue to remain below 3% ?

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

Powell said on 60 Minutes recently that he would consider lowering the Fed Funds rate if inflation was to remain below 3%.

I suspect the Fed would set the Fed Funds rate to 4.5% (currently 5.5%) if annual inflation steadies and remains below 3%. I recall that the Federal Reserve usually wants the Fed Funds rate about 1.5% higher than the annual inflation rate.

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778   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Feb 29, 7:54am  

AD says

PCE is reported tomorrow.

What is your forecast for January 2024 ? Will annual PCE increase but at least continue to remain below 3% ?

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

Powell said on 60 Minutes recently that he would consider lowering the Fed Funds rate if inflation was to remain below 3%.

I suspect the Fed would set the Fed Funds rate to 4.5% (currently 5.5%) if annual inflation steadies and remains below 3%. I recall that the Federal Reserve usually wants the Fed Funds rate about 1.5% higher than the annual inflation rate.

.


It may be rigged to.be lower than it is.
780   AD   2024 Feb 29, 10:53am  

UkraineIsFucked says


AD says

PCE is reported tomorrow.

What is your forecast for January 2024 ? Will annual PCE increase but at least continue to remain below 3% ?

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

Powell said on 60 Minutes recently that he would consider lowering the Fed Funds rate if inflation was to remain below 3%.

I suspect the Fed would set the Fed Funds rate to 4.5% (currently 5.5%) if annual inflation steadies and remains below 3%. I recall that the Federal Reserve usually wants the Fed Funds rate about 1.5% higher than the annual inflation rate.

.

It may be rigged to.be lower than it is.


.
Yes, as the Biden Administration reported annual PCE for January 2024 is 2.4%. That is 4 months of PCE being no more than 3%.

So the Biden Admin is going to state the economy had a soft landing with inflation dropping below 3% and unemployment remaining below 5%.

And Democrats will pressure the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Funds rate from currently 5.5% to at least 4.75% before the Democrat Party convention.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/pce-inflation-january-2023-.html

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786   Misc   2024 Feb 29, 9:18pm  

The chart is misleading because it is not based per capita, but instead for the nation as a whole. There was a sizable population increase over the year with a lot of illegals that distort the figures as they are presented.
788   AD   2024 Mar 1, 5:06pm  

Eman says





https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1763541375612604707?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q


Eman, yes as it has returned about 11% without including dividend reinvested. Its about par for what I was told back in early 2000's that the S&P 500 historically would return about 12% a year.

Yes, about 16 years ago the stock market bottomed as part of the Great Financial Crisis or Great Recession.

I would chose 01 January 2000 as the starting point.

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 7.02% for the S&P 500 from 01 January to 31 December 2023

source: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

The last 24 years has been the lost decades :-/

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790   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:07am  

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yeah Booger , its not looking too good. And debt service is no longer less than 8% of total federal spending.

Bill Clinton inherited a federal budget that has a large debt service ... recall the Social Security Trust Fund was flush with cash as income greatly exceeded expense (i.e.,net income in the deep, deep green) during the Clinton admin ...

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791   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:11am  

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$399 in debt payment for federal budget year 2022

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792   Misc   2024 Mar 3, 11:15am  

Those figures are so $2 trillion and 2% lower interest rates ago.
793   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:28am  

Misc says

Those figures are so $2 trillion and 2% lower interest rates ago.


True that Mister Misc, those figures ($399 billion for debt service or "net interest") are for Fiscal Year 2022.

$870 billion is the projected "net interest" for Fiscal Year 2024 according to the answer I received from Alexa, which references Congressional Budget Office data :-/

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794   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:33am  

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Birdbrain Biden and Senator Pocahontas has to put Jerome Powell in a virtual headlock to get him and the Fed to agree to lower the Fed Funds rate to below 4%. Its currently at 23 year high of 5.5%.

And get the Fed to reduce the rate of Quantitative Tightening if not stop it completely :-/

That would help reduce debt service as a percentage of total federal spending.

I have family that is paying the prime rate (about 8.25%) for a home equity loan line of credit. They were doing a lot better when the prime rate was around 5%.

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795   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:55am  

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It was like the Great Financial Crisis or Great Recession was an inflection point for the Federal Reserve as far as Quantitative Easing, and not just Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP).

Sounds like from now on, the Federal Reserve could intervene to reduce the severity of an economic crisis while the federal government spends a lot of taxpayer money on economic stimulus.

If Obama and the Democrats were able to spend as much as they wanted, I wonder what inflation and the national debt would be even with ZIRP and QE.

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796   Eman   2024 Mar 3, 11:56am  

Actually, the person, who is doing the dirty work, is Janet Yellen. Yellen has been putting pressure, or shall I say nudging, Powell behind the scene lower rate as soon as practical. For every month rate stays high, it costs the US a boatload of money. Powell is getting caught between a rock and a hard place.
797   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:59am  

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Makes sense as a large amount of debt taken on by the federal government such as for economic stimulus during the next Great Recession will be financed at very low rates, as the Federal Reserve will return to a Zero Interest Rate Policy.

Hopefully guvmint-reported annual inflation will be less than 3% when the dust clears :-/

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798   Misc   2024 Mar 3, 12:10pm  

Again, that's outta date. I will peg the average debt of US government issued securities at 3.25%.
800   AD   2024 Mar 3, 12:48pm  

Misc says


Again, that's outta date. I will peg the average debt of US government issued securities at 3.25%.


Of course it is as the federal guvmint wants to delay very bad news. So they show only 2022 data.

Just like the NY Times reported 6 million arrests or interventions at the border (for illegal border crossers) from Feb 2021 to Sept 2023, and said only 1.7 million were granted asylum and allowed to remain in the USA. Do you all trust their numbers especially the 1.7 million figure ?



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