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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   627,501 views  5,956 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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5831   OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething   2025 Jan 28, 4:05pm  

preed says

Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.


Contradiction right there.
5832   HeadSet   2025 Jan 28, 5:49pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

preed says


Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.


Contradiction right there.

Not really, as what happened in my area. The real estate assessments were significantly raised based on house appreciation over the last two years, even though house prices now are starting to decrease.
5833   Misc   2025 Jan 28, 5:56pm  

Don't worry your taxes will continue to go up.
5834   OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething   2025 Jan 28, 5:58pm  

HeadSet says

Not really, as what happened in my area. The real estate assessments were significantly raised based on house appreciation over the last two years, even though house prices now are starting to decrease.


You still don't get the contradiction.
5835   AmericanKulak   2025 Jan 29, 3:26pm  

Median First Time buyer age climbs to 38, all time high

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56
5836   HeadSet   2025 Jan 29, 6:40pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

You still don't get the contradiction.

Guess not, all I see is a timing issue.
5837   HeadSet   2025 Jan 29, 6:42pm  

AmericanKulak says

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

By age 56, one should own the home outright.
5838   AmericanKulak   2025 Jan 29, 6:45pm  

HeadSet says


By age 56, one should own the home outright.

Without a price (not rate) collapse, the people who can afford to buy at current prices will be over 60.

Get ready for the demo-driven crunch. Even if Trump deports 10M
5839   RWSGFY   2025 Jan 29, 6:45pm  

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says


Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

By age 56, one should own the home outright.


I'm far from 56 but with couple of decades left on my 2.15% mortgage I sure as shit won't own my house outright by that age. Because paying down loan this cheap would be stoopid.
5840   HeadSet   2025 Jan 29, 7:34pm  

RWSGFY says

I'm far from 56 but with couple of decades left on my 2.15% mortgage I sure as shit won't own my house outright by that age. Because paying down loan this cheap would be stoopid.

For that situation, yes. But I suspect you have enough assets to pay off that mortgage if the rate was higher.
5841   AD   2025 Jan 29, 7:38pm  

AmericanKulak says

Without a price (not rate) collapse, the people who can afford to buy at current prices will be over 60.

Get ready for the demo-driven crunch. Even if Trump deports 10M


I am not sure about the housing supply impact as far as deporting the criminal category among illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom, and likely in low cost housing.

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5842   HeadSet   2025 Jan 29, 7:41pm  

AD says

illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom

Prince William County
5843   AD   2025 Jan 29, 8:05pm  

HeadSet says

AD says

illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom

Prince William County


yes barrios like Manassas Park

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5844   AmericanKulak   2025 Jan 30, 12:34am  

AD says

I am not sure about the housing supply impact as far as deporting the criminal category among illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom, and likely in low cost housing.

Minimum 20M illegals, not counting the massive influx of student visas, H1Bs, H2Bs, etc. exploding over the past 3 decades.

So at least 5M bedrooms occupied.
5846   WookieMan   2025 Jan 30, 8:29am  

AmericanKulak says

Median First Time buyer age climbs to 38, all time high

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

Where are these stats coming from? I'm 41 and hang with 33-55 year olds. Everyone owns their home and will have it paid off by 60. No renters.

Fact is that stats account for losers in the mix. Which they generally live in cities or suburbs and just rent. Point is it drags down the stats. All the guys and gals I hang with owned a home before 30. Probably inner-city blacks and foreigners that will never own. A local gas station owned by Indians just live at the place. So they wouldn't be counted in the stats.

Also a lot of people inherited their parents home, boomers. They either died or downsized and paid cash. Housing stats are going to be misleading for a decade. Building is the biggie. Track that metric for your area and you'll understand.
5847   AD   2025 Jan 30, 9:43am  

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https://www.fastcompany.com/91267785/housing-market-americas-largest-builder-says-rising-housing-inventory-impact-sales-florida-texas

naturally the first oversold areas are the more attractive retirement areas like Florida and Texas

I wonder if work from home is one factor, albeit not the largest one, for them being oversold
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5848   AD   2025 Jan 30, 11:30am  

AD says

.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91267785/housing-market-americas-largest-builder-says-rising-housing-inventory-impact-sales-florida-texas

naturally the first oversold areas are the more attractive retirement areas like Florida and Texas

I wonder if work from home is one factor, albeit not the largest one, for them being oversold
,


That is why I price the market value for Florida panhandle as being 80% of the peak price set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%

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5849   AD   2025 Jan 30, 1:32pm  

WookieMan says

Where are these stats coming from? I'm 41 and hang with 33-55 year olds. Everyone owns their home and will have it paid off by 60. No renters.


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/homebuyer-average-age-rises-to-56-amid-rising-homeownership-costs.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/05/the-average-age-of-first-time-us-homebuyers-is-38-an-all-time-high.html

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5850   AmericanKulak   2025 Jan 31, 3:51pm  

Invitation Homes, a public traded SFH R/E company, is trading at a 30% discount to assets. American Homes 4 Rent, another stock, also trading at a discount.

Tells you something about what the smart money REALLY expects for for the next year.

House Price to Annual Rent is averaging at 18 years; the norm is 12.

Inventory is rising in most markets, while buyers are staying away in droves, with 1994 transaction levels in a country with at least 30% more population since then.

Everything points to the market being about 30% overpriced. Price, not rates themselves, is the bottleneck
5851   AD   2025 Jan 31, 6:18pm  

AmericanKulak says

Everything points to the market being about 30% overpriced. Price, not rates themselves, is the bottleneck


Yep, for every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate there should be a 10% drop in price based on mortgage affordability standards.

Factor in a 25% increase in household income since peak home price (around March 2022 in the Florida panhandle when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%), and I figure home prices should be about 20 to 25% below peak home price.

That should increase sales volume or liquidity, unless potential buyers are that stingy waiting on the sidelines.

.
5852   AmericanKulak   2025 Jan 31, 6:53pm  

Correct. There is also data that Blackrock and others through their various LLCs are putting houses on the market, including at a loss, at about 5% of holdings per quarter.

Slow so they don't tip their hand too much or flood the market, but it's clear where Big Money thinks the housing market is headed : Down.
5853   WookieMan   2025 Jan 31, 9:37pm  

AmericanKulak says

Correct. There is also data that Blackrock and others through their various LLCs are putting houses on the market, including at a loss, at about 5% of holdings per quarter.

Slow so they don't tip their hand too much or flood the market, but it's clear where Big Money thinks the housing market is headed : Down.

I don't care about Blackrock. No one wants to sell. Mortgage applications drop because there's nothing to buy. Why move from a 3-4% mortgage when you can mostly work from home and can't afford the higher prices. You stay put. Covid created a different real estate market.

Maybe Chicago, but there's literally no inventory where I live. Prices are not dropping here in IL is all I know.

Also for the other comment. "Smart" money also was massively wrong during the housing bust and people lost a ton of money. Somehow they're right this time?
5854   OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething   2025 Jan 31, 9:56pm  

WookieMan says


I don't care about Blackrock


Because reality pisses all over your little world that you keep insisting should be real for the rest of us, that's why.

Why is this comment voted #2 Best Comment, Wookie?

B.A.C.A.H. says


WookieMan says


H1B's likely didn't own.

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.

The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.

5855   AmericanKulak   2025 Jan 31, 10:39pm  

WookieMan says

No one wants to sell. Mortgage applications drop because there's nothing to buy.

Which would have upward pricing pressure, but assuming the potential buyers are wrong, why discount a major SFH owner 30% if that's right?
5856   AD   2025 Jan 31, 10:49pm  

WookieMan says


Maybe Chicago, but there's literally no inventory where I live. Prices are not dropping here in IL is all I know.


been through this before in Florida as its a roller coaster as far as housing supply and demand

but this time, because of the lack of subprime mortgage environment like in 2008, I don't think we'll have a +50% drop from peak price (set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%)

I am just astonished how the 30 yr mortgage rate is stuck above 6.5% for such a long time

but its all coupled or connected together (the knee bone is connected to the ...) whereas the Fed Funds rate hovers around 4.5% (so does the 1 yr CD rates and 10 Year Treasury rate), and the 30 Yr mortgage rate is usually 1.5% higher than the 10 Yr Treasury .. mortgage note holders are demanding a 7% interest rate

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5858   WookieMan   2025 Feb 1, 6:00am  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

I don't care about Blackrock

Because reality pisses all over your little world that you keep insisting should be real for the rest of us, that's why.

Why is this comment voted #2 Best Comment, Wookie?

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says

H1B's likely didn't own.

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.

The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.

At what point did I claim knowledge of CA markets? I've said they're in for a rough ride. SFBA is different than San Diego area. It's like two different planets in the same state, been to both. I'd bet 60% or more SFBA residents haven't even been to San Diego. I've been to the 3 major metro multiple times.

Those H1B guys/gals are going to other states for work at some point. There's no need to be in CA unless you want to be. At some point tech will move to places like Texas, Phoenix, Nashville, South Carolina, etc. Housing and land cost for business is significantly cheaper in those areas. You can buy in TX and if work needs to be done you have a team of 10 people or whatever and fly them out to SFBA. That would cost less than 0.001% in overall revenue even if you had to do it weekly.

WFH changes the market as well. My buddy lives in Montana, bought a house there but is employed in IL. Same housing prices but cheaper property taxes. I get Elon and Vivek think you should work in an office, but some people do just fine with WFH. Covid changed things.

While the weather is great in CA as long as it's not on fire or you're slipping on shit and falling on a needle, people will move elsewhere. That was hyperbolic to an extent. H1B's are fine with that lifestyle, but given where they're coming from it's normal. Systems bend and eventually break. I live in a state that was exited the most in the last 2 decades I believe or at least top 3.

These fires in LA could literally drop GDP 5 percent statewide. Hollywood is dead. These won't be people making $150-200k/yr. They make millions a year at 13% top tax bracket and a lot are older and can move to a low cost of living area and rent a place for 3 months if they need to film a movie. CA will have to raise taxes on people that make less than the stars. Then those people start moving. And yes, I know you're taxed in the state you worked, but there are other studios now.

Don't believe, I don't give a shit, but I've lived it and have said coastal areas have problems coming. H1B's are a small percentage. You could know them all, that means nothing. A shift is coming for certain states. But hey, that guy that worked, studied and ran a real estate business knows nothing after 15 years working it.... (eye roll).

Who on this forum has worked in real estate? I know what GNL does, but that's not analysis (not a knock - I know you talk to a lot of brokers). You don't have to be on the ground in the location to analyze what is happening in 2025. There's enough data. Everyone gets one metric and doesn't compare it to another. Inventory vs mortgage applications. If people can't afford housing inventory would jump as people sell for different reasons. Building metrics. There's dozens of other metrics. People get sucked into median price and that's it.
5859   AmericanKulak   2025 Feb 4, 10:16pm  

One thing is clear: Divest of Northern Virginia Real Estate NOW
5860   AD   2025 Feb 4, 10:26pm  

AmericanKulak says

One thing is clear: Divest of Northern Virginia Real Estate NOW


is that because of illegal immigration raids in shitholes like Manassas Park (Prince William County) and also Trump cuts to the federal bureaucracy (and contractors such as for USAID and US Dept of Education) ?

Did the People's Republic of Northern Virginia go thru some (even remotely) similar such as in the 1990s with the defense companies realignment ?

I remember Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral area went thru hardship as far as layoffs after the first Space Shuttle disaster

.
5861   AD   2025 Feb 4, 10:27pm  



5862   AmericanKulak   2025 Feb 4, 10:58pm  

AD says


is that because of illegal immigration raids in shitholes like Manassas Park (Prince William County) and also Trump cuts to the federal bureaucracy (and contractors such as for USAID and US Dept of Education) ?

I was mostly jesting, but with USAID gone I'd definitely not buy any Commercial REITs up there.

Florida is on track to have it's usual 10-15 year boom-bust cycle as always, and as always, people will ignore current numbers. Florida has net out migration among 20-39 age group because of shit wages.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrN7cDJCTEQ

Yet people are still talking like it's 2022. Builders are still building; and thanks to post 2008 FL Laws (State, County, City), multifamily builders can't just flip the switch, they gotta finish what they started.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DT9hRF-nL5w

Florida is facing the ol' problem of "I want somebody cheap to serve me coffee and wipe my ass, but I don't want them living near me and I want my rental income to be very high" in a state with very little non-service industry (tourism, urinal bag changing).

No state income tax is great for a Minnesota retired teacher or NJ Fireman, but not as important for $18/hr young workers. The latter are better off with an income tax, but 20% higher wages with the same or lower housing costs. And many people tire of 90F/90%H in June-August; Young working people can't just stop working at their office, retail, medical job , hop in an RV, or guest bedroom surf relatives back north in Summer.
5863   zzyzzx   2025 Feb 5, 8:14am  

AmericanKulak says

And many people tire of 90F/90%H in June-August


It's like that around here, except not as much in June.
5864   zzyzzx   2025 Feb 5, 8:16am  

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-home-sells-130000-loss-housing-market-changes-2023830

Florida Home Sells At $130,000 Loss as Housing Market Changes

Blackstone, the property's owner, purchased the home for $490,000 in April 2022 and sold it on Wednesday for just $360,000—a sharp decline of $130,000, or roughly 27 percent.
5865   OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething   2025 Feb 5, 8:31am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-home-sells-130000-loss-housing-market-changes-2023830

Florida Home Sells At $130,000 Loss as Housing Market Changes

Blackstone, the property's owner, purchased the home for $490,000 in April 2022 and sold it on Wednesday for just $360,000—a sharp decline of $130,000, or roughly 27 percent.


Yup.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says






https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1884991201281036711
5866   zzyzzx   2025 Feb 5, 10:47am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1ifmteo/my_home_has_been_on_the_market_for_100_days/

My home has been on the market for 100 days. Should I pull it and rent it at a loss?

The commentary is priceless!
5867   OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething   2025 Feb 5, 1:53pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1ifmteo/my_home_has_been_on_the_market_for_100_days/

My home has been on the market for 100 days. Should I pull it and rent it at a loss?

The commentary is priceless!


But the experts on PatNet told me....
5868   AmericanKulak   2025 Feb 5, 1:57pm  

Okie-Arkie median Rent: ~$1100
Okie Arkie median wage: ~$50k/year

FL median Rent: ~$1800
FL median wage: ~$53k/year
5869   AmericanKulak   2025 Feb 5, 2:00pm  

zzyzzx says


The commentary is priceless!


Awesome.

The problem is that his rent needs to rise at least $800 to meet his mortgage payments, heh.

"You can't stop what's comin', that's vanity" - Old Sheriff in No Country For Old Men.

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