patrick.net

zzyzzx says

In its National Delinquency Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported in the first quarter of 2024 that almost 11% of FHA-insured loans were delinquent (along with nearly 5% of all VA loans).

I don't know a single person delinquent. Here in IL everyone I know is killing it. My guys in MT are killing it.

Fact is mortgage applications drop when people DON'T MOVE! This is basic stuff. Kids are taking over Boomers houses and the Boomers buy cash to downsize or share, so again, applications will drop. If there's not building outside of rentals, it doesn't matter if applications go down. Current gen is just renting for now as there't little to no primary home building going on.

Another month and another all time high for housing prices. Case/Shiller up 3.8% year over year.

https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-reports-3-8-annual-gain-in-november-2024-1493549

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.

Blue says

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.

CPI y/y for the period was 2.7%.

Misc says

Blue says

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.

CPI y/y for the period was 2.7%.

The answer you'll get will be "it feelz like moar than that, hence it's moar!".

Misc says

Blue says

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.

CPI y/y for the period was 2.7%.

That’s what the government reported, which is going to be less than actual.

Gov numbers don’t reflect the reality. But there is one good legitimate reason behind it. If gov admits actual inflation numbers, all gov slugs come after us and ask to raise their pay only to shoot up inflation even further.
Again, this isn’t the same across the board. Some places are much worse.

https://theamericansun.substack.com/p/deportations-for-depopulation-for

What President Trump can do is attack the biggest monthly outlay for citizens that he knows well: real estate. He can do this by reducing demand with massive deportations, which will act like a quick depopulation. Doubters need only look across the globe for proof this works.

Housing takes up roughly one third of Americans’ paychecks if not more. Deportations will affect demand especially in cities. When population declines, the demand for housing decreases, which can lead to a drop in housing prices. Japan serves as a proof positive example of this phenomenon. Over the past few decades, Japan has experienced a shrinking population and stagnant housing demand, creating lower housing costs in many regions. Looking at Japan's housing market statistics and demographic trends, we can see how population decline (in the form of mass deportations) can lead to more affordable housing. ...

If Trump deports a million illegals, many more will self-deport. This pulls demand down for housing across the nation. ...

Eggs, chicken and milk a dollar here and there does add up. Seeing rent drop $100-500 a month will make fluctuations in groceries look like peanuts. We know the birthrates have been low since 2008, so there is not a flood of youngsters coming up to bid up apartments.

The real reason birthrates have been so low is the unaffordability of housing. You can't support children if you have nowhere to house them. Trump's deportation of criminal aliens (no person is illegal!) will do more good for the US birth rate than anything else he could possibly do. Cheaper housing means more children.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/12/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-dec-2024-in-21-of-the-33-metros-prices-have-now-dropped-below-2022-peaks/

I don't see this happening in MA yet. Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.

preed says

Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.

Contradiction right there.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

preed says

Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.

Contradiction right there.

Not really, as what happened in my area. The real estate assessments were significantly raised based on house appreciation over the last two years, even though house prices now are starting to decrease.

Don't worry your taxes will continue to go up.

HeadSet says

Not really, as what happened in my area. The real estate assessments were significantly raised based on house appreciation over the last two years, even though house prices now are starting to decrease.

You still don't get the contradiction.

Median First Time buyer age climbs to 38, all time high

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

You still don't get the contradiction.

Guess not, all I see is a timing issue.

AmericanKulak says

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

By age 56, one should own the home outright.

HeadSet says

By age 56, one should own the home outright.

Without a price (not rate) collapse, the people who can afford to buy at current prices will be over 60.

Get ready for the demo-driven crunch. Even if Trump deports 10M

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

By age 56, one should own the home outright.

I'm far from 56 but with couple of decades left on my 2.15% mortgage I sure as shit won't own my house outright by that age. Because paying down loan this cheap would be stoopid.

RWSGFY says

I'm far from 56 but with couple of decades left on my 2.15% mortgage I sure as shit won't own my house outright by that age. Because paying down loan this cheap would be stoopid.

For that situation, yes. But I suspect you have enough assets to pay off that mortgage if the rate was higher.

AmericanKulak says

Without a price (not rate) collapse, the people who can afford to buy at current prices will be over 60.

Get ready for the demo-driven crunch. Even if Trump deports 10M

I am not sure about the housing supply impact as far as deporting the criminal category among illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom, and likely in low cost housing.

.

AD says

illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom

Prince William County

HeadSet says

AD says

illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom

Prince William County

yes barrios like Manassas Park

.

AD says

I am not sure about the housing supply impact as far as deporting the criminal category among illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom, and likely in low cost housing.

Minimum 20M illegals, not counting the massive influx of student visas, H1Bs, H2Bs, etc. exploding over the past 3 decades.

So at least 5M bedrooms occupied.

https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1884991201281036711

AmericanKulak says

Median First Time buyer age climbs to 38, all time high

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

Where are these stats coming from? I'm 41 and hang with 33-55 year olds. Everyone owns their home and will have it paid off by 60. No renters.

Fact is that stats account for losers in the mix. Which they generally live in cities or suburbs and just rent. Point is it drags down the stats. All the guys and gals I hang with owned a home before 30. Probably inner-city blacks and foreigners that will never own. A local gas station owned by Indians just live at the place. So they wouldn't be counted in the stats.

Also a lot of people inherited their parents home, boomers. They either died or downsized and paid cash. Housing stats are going to be misleading for a decade. Building is the biggie. Track that metric for your area and you'll understand.

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https://www.fastcompany.com/91267785/housing-market-americas-largest-builder-says-rising-housing-inventory-impact-sales-florida-texas

naturally the first oversold areas are the more attractive retirement areas like Florida and Texas

I wonder if work from home is one factor, albeit not the largest one, for them being oversold
,

AD says

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https://www.fastcompany.com/91267785/housing-market-americas-largest-builder-says-rising-housing-inventory-impact-sales-florida-texas

naturally the first oversold areas are the more attractive retirement areas like Florida and Texas

I wonder if work from home is one factor, albeit not the largest one, for them being oversold
,

That is why I price the market value for Florida panhandle as being 80% of the peak price set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%

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WookieMan says

Where are these stats coming from? I'm 41 and hang with 33-55 year olds. Everyone owns their home and will have it paid off by 60. No renters.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/homebuyer-average-age-rises-to-56-amid-rising-homeownership-costs.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/05/the-average-age-of-first-time-us-homebuyers-is-38-an-all-time-high.html

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Invitation Homes, a public traded SFH R/E company, is trading at a 30% discount to assets. American Homes 4 Rent, another stock, also trading at a discount.

Tells you something about what the smart money REALLY expects for for the next year.

House Price to Annual Rent is averaging at 18 years; the norm is 12.

Inventory is rising in most markets, while buyers are staying away in droves, with 1994 transaction levels in a country with at least 30% more population since then.

Everything points to the market being about 30% overpriced. Price, not rates themselves, is the bottleneck

AmericanKulak says

Everything points to the market being about 30% overpriced. Price, not rates themselves, is the bottleneck

Yep, for every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate there should be a 10% drop in price based on mortgage affordability standards.

Factor in a 25% increase in household income since peak home price (around March 2022 in the Florida panhandle when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%), and I figure home prices should be about 20 to 25% below peak home price.

That should increase sales volume or liquidity, unless potential buyers are that stingy waiting on the sidelines.

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Correct. There is also data that Blackrock and others through their various LLCs are putting houses on the market, including at a loss, at about 5% of holdings per quarter.

Slow so they don't tip their hand too much or flood the market, but it's clear where Big Money thinks the housing market is headed : Down.

AmericanKulak says

Correct. There is also data that Blackrock and others through their various LLCs are putting houses on the market, including at a loss, at about 5% of holdings per quarter.

Slow so they don't tip their hand too much or flood the market, but it's clear where Big Money thinks the housing market is headed : Down.

I don't care about Blackrock. No one wants to sell. Mortgage applications drop because there's nothing to buy. Why move from a 3-4% mortgage when you can mostly work from home and can't afford the higher prices. You stay put. Covid created a different real estate market.

Maybe Chicago, but there's literally no inventory where I live. Prices are not dropping here in IL is all I know.

Also for the other comment. "Smart" money also was massively wrong during the housing bust and people lost a ton of money. Somehow they're right this time?

WookieMan says

I don't care about Blackrock

Because reality pisses all over your little world that you keep insisting should be real for the rest of us, that's why.

Why is this comment voted #2 Best Comment, Wookie?

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says

H1B's likely didn't own.

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.

The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.

WookieMan says

No one wants to sell. Mortgage applications drop because there's nothing to buy.

Which would have upward pricing pressure, but assuming the potential buyers are wrong, why discount a major SFH owner 30% if that's right?

WookieMan says

Maybe Chicago, but there's literally no inventory where I live. Prices are not dropping here in IL is all I know.

been through this before in Florida as its a roller coaster as far as housing supply and demand

but this time, because of the lack of subprime mortgage environment like in 2008, I don't think we'll have a +50% drop from peak price (set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%)

I am just astonished how the 30 yr mortgage rate is stuck above 6.5% for such a long time

but its all coupled or connected together (the knee bone is connected to the ...) whereas the Fed Funds rate hovers around 4.5% (so does the 1 yr CD rates and 10 Year Treasury rate), and the 30 Yr mortgage rate is usually 1.5% higher than the 10 Yr Treasury .. mortgage note holders are demanding a 7% interest rate

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https://www.newsweek.com/american-homeowners-have-regrets-about-buying-their-house-2023988

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

WookieMan says

I don't care about Blackrock

Because reality pisses all over your little world that you keep insisting should be real for the rest of us, that's why.

Why is this comment voted #2 Best Comment, Wookie?

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says

H1B's likely didn't own.

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.

The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.

At what point did I claim knowledge of CA markets? I've said they're in for a rough ride. SFBA is different than San Diego area. It's like two different planets in the same state, been to both. I'd bet 60% or more SFBA residents haven't even been to San Diego. I've been to the 3 major metro multiple times.

Those H1B guys/gals are going to other states for work at some point. There's no need to be in CA unless you want to be. At some point tech will move to places like Texas, Phoenix, Nashville, South Carolina, etc. Housing and land cost for business is significantly cheaper in those areas. You can buy in TX and if work needs to be done you have a team of 10 people or whatever and fly them out to SFBA. That would cost less than 0.001% in overall revenue even if you had to do it weekly.

WFH changes the market as well. My buddy lives in Montana, bought a house there but is employed in IL. Same housing prices but cheaper property taxes. I get Elon and Vivek think you should work in an office, but some people do just fine with WFH. Covid changed things.

While the weather is great in CA as long as it's not on fire or you're slipping on shit and falling on a needle, people will move elsewhere. That was hyperbolic to an extent. H1B's are fine with that lifestyle, but given where they're coming from it's normal. Systems bend and eventually break. I live in a state that was exited the most in the last 2 decades I believe or at least top 3.

These fires in LA could literally drop GDP 5 percent statewide. Hollywood is dead. These won't be people making $150-200k/yr. They make millions a year at 13% top tax bracket and a lot are older and can move to a low cost of living area and rent a place for 3 months if they need to film a movie. CA will have to raise taxes on people that make less than the stars. Then those people start moving. And yes, I know you're taxed in the state you worked, but there are other studios now.

Don't believe, I don't give a shit, but I've lived it and have said coastal areas have problems coming. H1B's are a small percentage. You could know them all, that means nothing. A shift is coming for certain states. But hey, that guy that worked, studied and ran a real estate business knows nothing after 15 years working it.... (eye roll).

Who on this forum has worked in real estate? I know what GNL does, but that's not analysis (not a knock - I know you talk to a lot of brokers). You don't have to be on the ground in the location to analyze what is happening in 2025. There's enough data. Everyone gets one metric and doesn't compare it to another. Inventory vs mortgage applications. If people can't afford housing inventory would jump as people sell for different reasons. Building metrics. There's dozens of other metrics. People get sucked into median price and that's it.

One thing is clear: Divest of Northern Virginia Real Estate NOW

AmericanKulak says

One thing is clear: Divest of Northern Virginia Real Estate NOW

is that because of illegal immigration raids in shitholes like Manassas Park (Prince William County) and also Trump cuts to the federal bureaucracy (and contractors such as for USAID and US Dept of Education) ?

Did the People's Republic of Northern Virginia go thru some (even remotely) similar such as in the 1990s with the defense companies realignment ?

I remember Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral area went thru hardship as far as layoffs after the first Space Shuttle disaster

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