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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   627,471 views  5,956 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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5809   Patrick   2025 Jan 13, 4:16pm  

How will the LA fires affect Bay Area house prices?

On the one hand, maybe a lot of the displaced people will move up here, pushing prices up.

On the other hand, maybe a lot of people will just give up on California completely because we could have similar fires up here as well. Not to mention the very high tax rate, the utter incompetence of all the diversity hires, and the surge in crime as the flood of criminal aliens makes California merely an extension of Mexico.
5810   WookieMan   2025 Jan 13, 7:32pm  

Patrick says

How will the LA fires affect Bay Area house prices?

On the one hand, maybe a lot of the displaced people will move up here, pushing prices up.

I think they move out unless they like surfing. You can move to Reno, Phoenix, Vegas area and spend way less and still be within 4 hours drive or a quick flight. The value was in the land anyway.
5812   zzyzzx   2025 Jan 14, 9:04am  

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-market-where-inventory-is-above-pre-pandemic-housing-inventory-levels

9 states are back above pre-pandemic housing inventory levels—these 5 states are getting close
5813   zzyzzx   2025 Jan 14, 9:31am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ally-end-mortgage-originations-cut-161513045.html

Ally to End Mortgage Originations, Cut Jobs Across Company
5815   WookieMan   2025 Jan 14, 1:31pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-market-where-inventory-is-above-pre-pandemic-housing-inventory-levels

9 states are back above pre-pandemic housing inventory levels—these 5 states are getting close

Some of you cats need to listen to me. This has been obvious for years. Popular spots have been overbuilt around 2018 or so. It's not interest rates. The inventory went up.
5816   Ceffer   2025 Jan 14, 2:27pm  

Patrick says





The real problem is that DEW effected matter do not quench very quickly and undermine ground to a good depth under the former structures. They create time related deterioration effects that are unpredictable. Might be OK for a home, but not for large, heavy structures for some time afterwards.

The reflecting pool 'memorials' at the previous WTC in NYC aren't there because they wanted a memorial on the valuable real estate. Clean nuke under the foundations as well as non-quenching DEWs with ongoing molecular effects made the footprints unbuildable. Those plots would continue to disintegrate and undermine any large structure built on them.
5821   zzyzzx   2025 Jan 27, 8:18am  

https://appraisersblogs.com/is-a-horde-of-deadbeat-borrowers-again-walking-among-us/

Is a Horde of Deadbeat Borrowers Again Walking Among Us?

In its National Delinquency Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported in the first quarter of 2024 that almost 11% of FHA-insured loans were delinquent (along with nearly 5% of all VA loans).
5822   WookieMan   2025 Jan 27, 12:34pm  

zzyzzx says

In its National Delinquency Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported in the first quarter of 2024 that almost 11% of FHA-insured loans were delinquent (along with nearly 5% of all VA loans).

I don't know a single person delinquent. Here in IL everyone I know is killing it. My guys in MT are killing it.

Fact is mortgage applications drop when people DON'T MOVE! This is basic stuff. Kids are taking over Boomers houses and the Boomers buy cash to downsize or share, so again, applications will drop. If there's not building outside of rentals, it doesn't matter if applications go down. Current gen is just renting for now as there't little to no primary home building going on.
5823   Misc   2025 Jan 28, 7:18am  

Another month and another all time high for housing prices. Case/Shiller up 3.8% year over year.

https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-reports-3-8-annual-gain-in-november-2024-1493549
5824   Blue   2025 Jan 28, 8:24am  

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.
5825   Misc   2025 Jan 28, 10:06am  

Blue says

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.


CPI y/y for the period was 2.7%.
5826   RWSGFY   2025 Jan 28, 10:09am  

Misc says

Blue says


3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.


CPI y/y for the period was 2.7%.


The answer you'll get will be "it feelz like moar than that, hence it's moar!".
5827   ForcedTQ   2025 Jan 28, 10:10am  

Misc says

Blue says


3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.


CPI y/y for the period was 2.7%.

That’s what the government reported, which is going to be less than actual.
5828   Blue   2025 Jan 28, 11:31am  

Gov numbers don’t reflect the reality. But there is one good legitimate reason behind it. If gov admits actual inflation numbers, all gov slugs come after us and ask to raise their pay only to shoot up inflation even further.
Again, this isn’t the same across the board. Some places are much worse.
5829   Patrick   2025 Jan 28, 2:03pm  

https://theamericansun.substack.com/p/deportations-for-depopulation-for


What President Trump can do is attack the biggest monthly outlay for citizens that he knows well: real estate. He can do this by reducing demand with massive deportations, which will act like a quick depopulation. Doubters need only look across the globe for proof this works.

Housing takes up roughly one third of Americans’ paychecks if not more. Deportations will affect demand especially in cities. When population declines, the demand for housing decreases, which can lead to a drop in housing prices. Japan serves as a proof positive example of this phenomenon. Over the past few decades, Japan has experienced a shrinking population and stagnant housing demand, creating lower housing costs in many regions. Looking at Japan's housing market statistics and demographic trends, we can see how population decline (in the form of mass deportations) can lead to more affordable housing. ...

If Trump deports a million illegals, many more will self-deport. This pulls demand down for housing across the nation. ...

Eggs, chicken and milk a dollar here and there does add up. Seeing rent drop $100-500 a month will make fluctuations in groceries look like peanuts. We know the birthrates have been low since 2008, so there is not a flood of youngsters coming up to bid up apartments.


The real reason birthrates have been so low is the unaffordability of housing. You can't support children if you have nowhere to house them. Trump's deportation of criminal aliens (no person is illegal!) will do more good for the US birth rate than anything else he could possibly do. Cheaper housing means more children.
5831   OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething   2025 Jan 28, 4:05pm  

preed says

Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.


Contradiction right there.
5832   HeadSet   2025 Jan 28, 5:49pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

preed says


Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.


Contradiction right there.

Not really, as what happened in my area. The real estate assessments were significantly raised based on house appreciation over the last two years, even though house prices now are starting to decrease.
5833   Misc   2025 Jan 28, 5:56pm  

Don't worry your taxes will continue to go up.
5834   OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething   2025 Jan 28, 5:58pm  

HeadSet says

Not really, as what happened in my area. The real estate assessments were significantly raised based on house appreciation over the last two years, even though house prices now are starting to decrease.


You still don't get the contradiction.
5835   AmericanKulak   2025 Jan 29, 3:26pm  

Median First Time buyer age climbs to 38, all time high

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56
5836   HeadSet   2025 Jan 29, 6:40pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

You still don't get the contradiction.

Guess not, all I see is a timing issue.
5837   HeadSet   2025 Jan 29, 6:42pm  

AmericanKulak says

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

By age 56, one should own the home outright.
5838   AmericanKulak   2025 Jan 29, 6:45pm  

HeadSet says


By age 56, one should own the home outright.

Without a price (not rate) collapse, the people who can afford to buy at current prices will be over 60.

Get ready for the demo-driven crunch. Even if Trump deports 10M
5839   RWSGFY   2025 Jan 29, 6:45pm  

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says


Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

By age 56, one should own the home outright.


I'm far from 56 but with couple of decades left on my 2.15% mortgage I sure as shit won't own my house outright by that age. Because paying down loan this cheap would be stoopid.
5840   HeadSet   2025 Jan 29, 7:34pm  

RWSGFY says

I'm far from 56 but with couple of decades left on my 2.15% mortgage I sure as shit won't own my house outright by that age. Because paying down loan this cheap would be stoopid.

For that situation, yes. But I suspect you have enough assets to pay off that mortgage if the rate was higher.
5841   AD   2025 Jan 29, 7:38pm  

AmericanKulak says

Without a price (not rate) collapse, the people who can afford to buy at current prices will be over 60.

Get ready for the demo-driven crunch. Even if Trump deports 10M


I am not sure about the housing supply impact as far as deporting the criminal category among illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom, and likely in low cost housing.

.
5842   HeadSet   2025 Jan 29, 7:41pm  

AD says

illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom

Prince William County
5843   AD   2025 Jan 29, 8:05pm  

HeadSet says

AD says

illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom

Prince William County


yes barrios like Manassas Park

.
5844   AmericanKulak   2025 Jan 30, 12:34am  

AD says

I am not sure about the housing supply impact as far as deporting the criminal category among illegal immigrants as they likely live 4 persons to one bedroom, and likely in low cost housing.

Minimum 20M illegals, not counting the massive influx of student visas, H1Bs, H2Bs, etc. exploding over the past 3 decades.

So at least 5M bedrooms occupied.
5846   WookieMan   2025 Jan 30, 8:29am  

AmericanKulak says

Median First Time buyer age climbs to 38, all time high

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

Where are these stats coming from? I'm 41 and hang with 33-55 year olds. Everyone owns their home and will have it paid off by 60. No renters.

Fact is that stats account for losers in the mix. Which they generally live in cities or suburbs and just rent. Point is it drags down the stats. All the guys and gals I hang with owned a home before 30. Probably inner-city blacks and foreigners that will never own. A local gas station owned by Indians just live at the place. So they wouldn't be counted in the stats.

Also a lot of people inherited their parents home, boomers. They either died or downsized and paid cash. Housing stats are going to be misleading for a decade. Building is the biggie. Track that metric for your area and you'll understand.
5847   AD   2025 Jan 30, 9:43am  

.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91267785/housing-market-americas-largest-builder-says-rising-housing-inventory-impact-sales-florida-texas

naturally the first oversold areas are the more attractive retirement areas like Florida and Texas

I wonder if work from home is one factor, albeit not the largest one, for them being oversold
,
5848   AD   2025 Jan 30, 11:30am  

AD says

.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91267785/housing-market-americas-largest-builder-says-rising-housing-inventory-impact-sales-florida-texas

naturally the first oversold areas are the more attractive retirement areas like Florida and Texas

I wonder if work from home is one factor, albeit not the largest one, for them being oversold
,


That is why I price the market value for Florida panhandle as being 80% of the peak price set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%

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