patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

The new normal is that nobody wants to pay 6x income for a 1960s starter home or for a 5 bedroom McMansion Zero Lot for a couple or a guy and his dogs.

So where are these people living?

HeadSet says

So where are these people living?

They rent.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

HeadSet says

So where are these people living?

They rent.

But isn't rent increasing as well?

HeadSet says

But isn't rent increasing as well?

I dunno about other states, but FL rents are collapsing.

It was a modest $100 decline in 2023, 2024 saw big cuts, continuing on until 2025.

Already by Summer 2024, rents were in freefall.
https://www.redfin.com/news/rents-fall-in-florida-austin-june-2024/

https://jaredjones.com/2024/09/19/landlords-panic-as-florida-rental-market-faces-major-decline/

Not only is it Landlords desperate to get somebody to come in and mitigate their 30% rise in HOA, Insurance, Property Taxes, but FL built 100k's of new multifamily units in the past two years - forced to finish by county/state bonding laws to prevent another 2008 when developers walked away from unfinished complexes

Once Trump slams the brakes on the migration wave it's hey hey mama going down.

Blackrock is already selling off in tranches. This site is run by a real estate research app developer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa5r73qp-U
Home Partners of America (Blackstone) taking losses to dump fast last fall North of Tampa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2BZbCbGN0g

The smart money is abandoning AirBNB, SFH rental, etc. and did so starting early last year.

NO bailouts for investment properties.

Rents dropping in Texas too but I'm not sure if it's as much as Florida. Probably not.

AmericanKulak says

I dunno about other states, but FL rents are collapsing.

Not around here in coastal Virginia - rents are steadily increasing. House prices are falling, but the fall is from the rapidly increased prices from the last few years.

HeadSet says

Not around here in coastal Virginia - rents are steadily increasing. House prices are falling, but the fall is from the rapidly increased prices from the last few years.

Around here in San Antonio we have a net outflow of residents so our population is decreasing, which is rare here. Over 15K apartments were build recently too mostly sitting empty.

It was difficult to get tenants for one of my rent houses last summer. It took me 4 months, a pretty major remodel, and a huge drop in rents. It put my rent gross back to around where it was in 2017.

I have a couple of young Navy kids living there now that work at one of the NSA buildings here in town which is perfect. Some people bitch and moan about small mom and pop people like me taking up the housing stock but for renters like that we do provide a service.

It's the mega-corps buying up everything that are the assholes. I still rent my self. All 3 of my rent house are equivalent to one house and San Diego and maybe 3/4 in SF bay area.

Maybe I'll sell when I finally buy something to live in but until then it keeps me diversified.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/12/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-dec-2024-in-21-of-the-33-metros-prices-have-now-dropped-below-2022-peaks/

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/12/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-dec-2024-in-21-of-the-33-metros-prices-have-now-dropped-below-2022-peaks/

Cities are going to eat shit. That was always a given. People don't want to live in them. Didn't predict our town, but we've had 10 houses built in the last 18 month. Nothing was built for 20 years prior. Mind you we only have 800 homes so this isn't earth shaking building, but we're getting city folks moving in from Chicago.

How will the LA fires affect Bay Area house prices?

On the one hand, maybe a lot of the displaced people will move up here, pushing prices up.

On the other hand, maybe a lot of people will just give up on California completely because we could have similar fires up here as well. Not to mention the very high tax rate, the utter incompetence of all the diversity hires, and the surge in crime as the flood of criminal aliens makes California merely an extension of Mexico.

Patrick says

How will the LA fires affect Bay Area house prices?

On the one hand, maybe a lot of the displaced people will move up here, pushing prices up.

I think they move out unless they like surfing. You can move to Reno, Phoenix, Vegas area and spend way less and still be within 4 hours drive or a quick flight. The value was in the land anyway.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/12/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-dec-2024-in-21-of-the-33-metros-prices-have-now-dropped-below-2022-peaks/

But Inflation locked in duh high prices!

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-market-where-inventory-is-above-pre-pandemic-housing-inventory-levels

9 states are back above pre-pandemic housing inventory levels—these 5 states are getting close

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ally-end-mortgage-originations-cut-161513045.html

Ally to End Mortgage Originations, Cut Jobs Across Company

zzyzzx says

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-market-where-inventory-is-above-pre-pandemic-housing-inventory-levels

9 states are back above pre-pandemic housing inventory levels—these 5 states are getting close

Some of you cats need to listen to me. This has been obvious for years. Popular spots have been overbuilt around 2018 or so. It's not interest rates. The inventory went up.

Patrick says

The real problem is that DEW effected matter do not quench very quickly and undermine ground to a good depth under the former structures. They create time related deterioration effects that are unpredictable. Might be OK for a home, but not for large, heavy structures for some time afterwards.

The reflecting pool 'memorials' at the previous WTC in NYC aren't there because they wanted a memorial on the valuable real estate. Clean nuke under the foundations as well as non-quenching DEWs with ongoing molecular effects made the footprints unbuildable. Those plots would continue to disintegrate and undermine any large structure built on them.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

https://youtu.be/3hGhlvA08pM?si=AW7l8RanvahQhirq

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/17/bring-on-the-supply-single-family-housing-starts-in-2024-rose-to-2nd-highest-in-17-years-amid-budding-glut-multifamily-starts-plunge-from-multidecade-boom-amid-oversupply-cre-depression/

https://appraisersblogs.com/is-a-horde-of-deadbeat-borrowers-again-walking-among-us/

Is a Horde of Deadbeat Borrowers Again Walking Among Us?

In its National Delinquency Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported in the first quarter of 2024 that almost 11% of FHA-insured loans were delinquent (along with nearly 5% of all VA loans).

zzyzzx says

In its National Delinquency Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported in the first quarter of 2024 that almost 11% of FHA-insured loans were delinquent (along with nearly 5% of all VA loans).

I don't know a single person delinquent. Here in IL everyone I know is killing it. My guys in MT are killing it.

Fact is mortgage applications drop when people DON'T MOVE! This is basic stuff. Kids are taking over Boomers houses and the Boomers buy cash to downsize or share, so again, applications will drop. If there's not building outside of rentals, it doesn't matter if applications go down. Current gen is just renting for now as there't little to no primary home building going on.

Another month and another all time high for housing prices. Case/Shiller up 3.8% year over year.

https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-reports-3-8-annual-gain-in-november-2024-1493549

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.

Blue says

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.

CPI y/y for the period was 2.7%.

Misc says

Blue says

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.

CPI y/y for the period was 2.7%.

The answer you'll get will be "it feelz like moar than that, hence it's moar!".

Misc says

Blue says

3.8% should still be less than the actual inflation.

CPI y/y for the period was 2.7%.

That’s what the government reported, which is going to be less than actual.

Gov numbers don’t reflect the reality. But there is one good legitimate reason behind it. If gov admits actual inflation numbers, all gov slugs come after us and ask to raise their pay only to shoot up inflation even further.
Again, this isn’t the same across the board. Some places are much worse.

https://theamericansun.substack.com/p/deportations-for-depopulation-for

What President Trump can do is attack the biggest monthly outlay for citizens that he knows well: real estate. He can do this by reducing demand with massive deportations, which will act like a quick depopulation. Doubters need only look across the globe for proof this works.

Housing takes up roughly one third of Americans’ paychecks if not more. Deportations will affect demand especially in cities. When population declines, the demand for housing decreases, which can lead to a drop in housing prices. Japan serves as a proof positive example of this phenomenon. Over the past few decades, Japan has experienced a shrinking population and stagnant housing demand, creating lower housing costs in many regions. Looking at Japan's housing market statistics and demographic trends, we can see how population decline (in the form of mass deportations) can lead to more affordable housing. ...

If Trump deports a million illegals, many more will self-deport. This pulls demand down for housing across the nation. ...

Eggs, chicken and milk a dollar here and there does add up. Seeing rent drop $100-500 a month will make fluctuations in groceries look like peanuts. We know the birthrates have been low since 2008, so there is not a flood of youngsters coming up to bid up apartments.

The real reason birthrates have been so low is the unaffordability of housing. You can't support children if you have nowhere to house them. Trump's deportation of criminal aliens (no person is illegal!) will do more good for the US birth rate than anything else he could possibly do. Cheaper housing means more children.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/12/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-dec-2024-in-21-of-the-33-metros-prices-have-now-dropped-below-2022-peaks/

I don't see this happening in MA yet. Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.

preed says

Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.

Contradiction right there.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

preed says

Even if prices were to go down, assessments and taxes have skyrocketed.

Contradiction right there.

Not really, as what happened in my area. The real estate assessments were significantly raised based on house appreciation over the last two years, even though house prices now are starting to decrease.

Don't worry your taxes will continue to go up.

HeadSet says

Not really, as what happened in my area. The real estate assessments were significantly raised based on house appreciation over the last two years, even though house prices now are starting to decrease.

You still don't get the contradiction.

Median First Time buyer age climbs to 38, all time high

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

You still don't get the contradiction.

Guess not, all I see is a timing issue.

AmericanKulak says

Average Homeloan Buyer age climbs to 56

By age 56, one should own the home outright.

HeadSet says

By age 56, one should own the home outright.

Without a price (not rate) collapse, the people who can afford to buy at current prices will be over 60.

Get ready for the demo-driven crunch. Even if Trump deports 10M