patrick.net

WookieMan says

Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation

Never said that you did? Where did I say that?

WookieMan says

You just make shit up dude

That's your dept.

MolotovCocktail says

Never said that you did? Where did I say that?

You just flagged one of my comments. For what. Sorry I posted links and data and you cannot handle information unless it's in picture format. I can't help you with that. It's okay to admit you don't know what you're talking about.

WookieMan says

You have more ignores

You have 11, I have 6.

One PatNet member just complained to Patrick that a weeks worth of comments on a thread were missing. Patrick had to tell him it was because he blocked you that they were not visible.

I am often a troll. Even an outright asshole. So ppl block me for that and that's AOK. But it is for a purpose. In your case, outing bullshit posted by so-called experts that you took the bait on and won't let up.

And witnessing the sheer amount of psychological projection you engage in with your responses is an awesome site to behold, frankly.

WookieMan says

You just flagged one of my comments. For what. Sorry I posted links and data and you cannot handle information unless it's in picture format. I can't help you with that. It's okay to admit you don't know what you're talking about.

Jesus dude. WTF is your problem?

You say: "Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation."

My response: "Never said that you did? Where did I say that?"

'That' being your claim that I am lying about you marking comments for moderation. That's what you wrote. Of course, you are going to claim otherwise

Full text of yours:

WookieMan says

Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation, this one is worthy. You just make shit up dude. You have more ignores in a fraction of the time I've been on this site.

I never said that you mark comments for moderation, to which you claim I am lying about. Learn what a main subject sentence of a paragraph is, if weaseling out of what you actually said is your goal here.

WookieMan says

Sorry I posted links and data and you cannot handle information

The ones I marked for moderation didn't have links and data or whatever. They were just ad hominem attacks that a 12 yr old can even do better.

Comment 6998

You don't contribute anything here. You're here to just argue. You're the type that destroys sites like this that are fun. Ad, Panicans, Patrick and many others. Just those three I don't always agree with them. I don't shit on them. You're a troll. Own it and move on and let this site be what it was. Go to pasture bro.

WookieMan says

Comment 6998

You don't contribute anything here. You're here to just argue. You're the type that destroys sites like this that are fun. Ad, Panicans, Patrick and many others. Just those three I don't always agree with them. I don't shit on them. You're a troll. Own it and move on and let this site be what it was. Go to pasture bro.

Ad hominem attack again.

Yeah. Calling out the truth of other people's bullshit is 'destroying sites'. Not.

It's the people who post said bullshit being called out who do.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Comment 6998

Look at the comment. No bullshit. Let me know what is. I'll wait.

Throwing out Ad hominem is weak sauce. You're caught in your bull shit. It's fine. Just don't argue arguing when you're wrong. Not a good look. Click the links bud in the comment listed. You don't care as I think most here know you're a troll. Whatever makes your day bro. Just stop putting trash on this site.

WookieMan says

Look at the comment. No bullshit. Let me know what is. I'll wait.

Why? Does nothing to disprove all the other bullshit you post here. I mean, just in the last 48 hours you've been caught red-handed posting complete bullshit. Can't be a CREDIBLE Housing Expert of PatNet when you keep doing that.

WookieMan says

Just stop putting trash on this site.

Calling out your bullshit isn't 'putting trash on this site'. It's called performing a public service.

WookieMan says

Click the links bud in the comment listed.

You mean like the link to the college professor you claimed to know and studied under? Your link there provided zero proof of that bullshit claim of that. A claim you felt necessary to make to only keep up with the bogus 'expert' rep you unhealthily crave in the first place but I challenged?

So what else is bullshit? Stories of you being a such and such or about your family? What can you actually prove about any of that? Nothing.

Nothing.

But you expect everyone to accept all that...and react defensively when someone calls you out on it. Hell your responses when you are in that mode usually don't even make fuck all any sense, for that matter.

You've cooked your rep not by any individual comment/post you've made here, but rather by the established pattern as per the above observed in 90% of them. You are at the same stage Biden was during that debate or when Dorothy pulled back the curtain the Wizard of Oz was hiding behind: It's game over, pal. OVER.



Likewise, I am a troll but not trolling you..that would require effort. There's been little effort on my part when you supply 100% of the ammo I use to call out your bullshit. That too is pretty obvious.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

HO-3 policies generally exclude Floods, which is the most common type of hurricane damage. According to this website listed below, in 2021 the average Flood policy cost $700/year additional
https://davidlowpa.com/ho3-homeowners-policies-in-florida/

yes, I know as our townhome is not in a flood zone

if it did flood such as from a +20 foot storm surge the water would drain out within a day from what I've researched as we are about two miles from the beach and about 17 feet above sea level

.

AD says

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

HO-3 policies generally exclude Floods, which is the most common type of hurricane damage. According to this website listed below, in 2021 the average Flood policy cost $700/year additional
https://davidlowpa.com/ho3-homeowners-policies-in-florida/

yes, I know as our townhome is not in a flood zone

if it did flood such as from a +20 foot storm surge the water would drain out within a day from what I've researched as we are about two miles from the beach and about 17 feet above sea level

.

Rain is the enemy from what I researched. Remember Houston a few years back. 20" of rain. 2' of water basically. I wouldn't worry about the storm surge. I'd worry about copious amount of rain during a hurricane. May not happen in your/our lifetime but that one time the townhome is toast. City storm sewers can only do so much with 2-3" of rain an hour for 10 hours.

Debris gets washed in and starts damming storm sewers up. Next thing you know you're not lake front, but in the lake property. I think it was 1994, but we got 17" in my area in IL, absolutely insane. 3" is a lot usually. Flat land and heavy amounts of rain are not a good mix. 3' of water in the basement later... I had to rebuild our finished basement. Dad couldn't golf but still went to the club to gamble.

WookieMan says

Rain is the enemy from what I researched. Remember Houston a few years back. 20" of rain. 2' of water basically. I wouldn't worry about the storm surge. I'd worry about copious amount of rain during a hurricane. May not happen in your/our lifetime but that one time the townhome is toast. City storm sewers can only do so much with 2-3" of rain an hour for 10 hours.

yes it is called inundation not a downpour as far as that much rain which overwhelms the storm water systems

we got once 5 inches of rain in a couple of hours and it was significant as far as storm water drainage

.

Yes, and that's entirely rational given how dangerous it is to live near high concentrations of blacks.

US public transit sucks for the same reason. It's very dangerous to ride public transit with blacks, just ask Iryna (oops, can't) or the 37,000 white women raped by black men each year.

So rational people want to be in a car, to have a metal barrier between oneself and the "socioeconomic factors" that killed Iryna. Cars are also useful for getting away from violent black people quickly, and as a last resort, as a weapon against black violence.

Everyone should stop pretending integration worked. It failed in the most horrible way, entirely due to the average content of black character, not the color of their skin. The problem is racist black violence against whites and Asians, and that violence continues every single day in every big city in the US. And the media remains silent about it, as ever.

Orlando Metro Area prices are up 70% since pre-COVID. Projected 8.5% price decline this year. Inventory is on par with 2011 now and rising.

Not a huge fan of Orlando generally, everything is a drive and the horrible mix of drivers. Clueless immigrants driving as if it's South America, slowass old people who shouldn't be driving and slam the brakes almost past the exit or turn, Disney Tourists doing the same, and Kia operators.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Help paying mortgage or help getting a mortgage? Need some distinction on that graph. Signing mortgage docs tomorrow, we had no problems getting one. Paying it, I don't know. Most my peers are pretty open about their housing situation. They're all solid and so are we.

I'm not going to name locations as I'll get the usual shit show. There are places that prices will drop. Most of the country is on solid ground. Sideways or up/down 5%. There will be a few areas that get beaten up specifically. Denver, Nashville, Boise, Orlando as you mentioned, Austin and anything along the east or west coast. But 5-10% down will likely be the max over the next 2 years as far as value loss. Loans are solid and interest rates from 3 years ago are keeping people in place. The floor is high price wise in markets that go down. Also lenders will be hesitant to foreclose. We'd need a massive job loss scenario.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Can you explain what this is telling us?

GNL says

"Can you explain what this is telling us?"

@GNL, It is an attempt to show historical mortgage rates and it fails to do so.
See my next post for such a graph going back to 1971.

The_Deplorable says

By 2004 the Housing bubble was obvious and according to the Fed Minutes,
Alan Greenspan ignored it and it is with us to this day.

GNL says

Can you explain what this is telling us?

@GNL

It's showing the number of people searching on a search engine for "help with mortgage" and that it's the same as 2008, the last big housing crash.

WookieMan says

lenders will be hesitant to foreclose. We'd need a massive job loss scenario.

I don't understand why lenders would be hesitant to forclouses although here in NY it's a LONG process start to finish.

As for massive job loss, that's not out of the realm of possiblity. True unemployment is still historically low but at least here in the Northeast, the job market is tightening.

GreaterNYCDude says

I don't understand why lenders would be hesitant to forclouses although here in NY it's a LONG process start to finish.

Forbearance. I got into RE pre-bust. The process to foreclose is massively more expensive to banks. They give you two months off and tack it on the back end. The problem was way too large 2006-2008. Any problem now is trivial. Certain locations will go down, not the entire nation. Those locations will have to deal.

As I've said the floor is high on any price drops in most places. It's been 15 years plus since the housing bust. Do a linear graph in your area when data started being recorded. With inflation we're mostly still on a normal path in most locations.

I hate national. Top orangish line would be bad. Red line is the path we're on. I'm not seeing a problem as many markets are basically stalling. Do not expect housing to become more affordable anytime soon is all I'm saying. If interest rates drop it will be more expensive, unless inventory explodes.

Patrick says

Yes, and that's entirely rational given how dangerous it is to live near high concentrations of blacks.

Patrick, some of your posts very likely make your Violent Left and AntiFa soy boy readers gnash their teeth.

But that is one reason your site exists, as you posted a few years ago about the "freedom to offend".

.

Thanks @AD but I don't think there are any leftist readers of this site. They can't handle the truth.

It's obviously true that it is dangerous to live near high concentrations of blacks and it's because of the content of their character (on average), not the color of their skin. Everyone knows it, but almost no one has the courage to say it.

We don't need to live this way.

Patrick says

Thanks AD but I don't think there are any leftist readers of this site. They can't handle the truth.

It's obviously true that it is dangerous to live near high concentrations of blacks and it's because of the content of their character (on average), not the color of their skin. Everyone knows it, but almost no one has the courage to say it.

We don't need to live this way.

If what you wrote was in that AntiFa and Violent Left chat room where Tyler Robinson made friends, then their heads would explode reading what you wrote.

Short sales are going up. Completed Transactions collapsing.

Buyers are not buying yesterday's shit shacks at the current inflated prices.

3-4% rates will not fix the fundamental issue, inflated prices that average 450% household income nationally, and the housing stock has never been older.

Mortgages up 90%, Salaries only up ~20% in the past few years. NOT including the ~30% rise in insurance and property taxes based on the new inflated prices. The new buyer doesn't pay insurance and tax based on the 2015 price, but on the 2025 price.

Investors have been slowly bailing for almost 8 quarters now. Builders are selling at or below used home comps.

Time for sellers to accept reality, but it will take time. They are still at the huffing and snorting at the Real Estate Agent and "Lowball" offers based in reality, taking their homes off the market and swearing to come back next season or after the rates go back to the not-normal ZIRP era.

Delinquency rate hits 12%

IRVINE, Calif. — September 11, 2025 —ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its August 2025 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows there were a total of 35,697 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings— default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — down 1 percent from a month ago but up 18 percent from a year ago.

“August marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year increases in U.S. foreclosure activity and the third straight month with double-digit annual growth,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “While overall levels remain below those seen before the pandemic, the ongoing rise in both foreclosure starts and completions suggests that some homeowners may be experiencing added financial strain in the current high-cost and high-interest-rate environment.”

The worst foreclosure rates were in Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida

Nationwide, one in every 3,987 housing units had a foreclosure filing in August 2025. States with the worst foreclosure rates were Nevada (one in every 2,069 housing units with a foreclosure filing); South Carolina (one in every 2,152 housing units); Florida (one in every 2,512 housing units).
...
Nationwide, one in every 3,987 housing units had a foreclosure filing in August 2025. States with the worst foreclosure rates were Nevada (one in every 2,069 housing units with a foreclosure filing); South Carolina (one in every 2,152 housing units); Florida (one in every 2,512 housing units).

Among the 225 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the worst foreclosure rates in August 2025 were Lakeland, FL (one in every 1,212 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Columbia, SC (one in every 1,347 housing units); Chico, CA (one in every 1,545 housing units); Cleveland, OH (one in every 1,755 housing units); and Ocala, FL (one in every 1,816 housing units).

Those major metropolitan areas with a population greater than 1 million with the worst foreclosure rates in August 2025 besides Cleveland were: Las Vegas, NV (one in every 1,817 housing units); Jacksonville, FL (one in every 2,057 housing units); Houston, TX (one in every 2,195 housing units); and Orlando, FL (one in every 2,210 housing units).

Texas, Florida, and California led the nation in foreclosure starts

Lenders started the foreclosure process on 24,254 U.S. properties in August 2025, down slightly at 0.2 percent from last month but up 16.9 percent from a year ago.

https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/august-2025-foreclosure-market-report/

It's a great time to stay on the sidelines!

Insurance Costs Exploding yet again, almost 12% YoY nationally

September 2025 Mortgage Monitor
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Are up 4.9% in 2025, 11.3% Over Last 12 Months

Average property insurance costs have risen nearly 70% over the past five years, outpacing growth in other mortgage-related expenses

ATLANTA & NEW YORK -- (Sept. 8, 2025) – ICE Mortgage Technology, neutral provider of a robust end-to-end mortgage platform and part of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), today released its September 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report, highlighting the continued surge in property insurance costs and its growing impact on overall mortgage affordability.

The report found that the average annual property insurance payment for single-family mortgage holders has climbed to nearly $2,370 per year, accounting for 9.6% of average monthly mortgage-related expenses when factoring in principal, interest, taxes and insurance (PITI). This marks the highest share on record and underscores the disproportionate role insurance costs are playing in rising homeownership expenses.

“Property insurance costs continue to be the fasted growing subcomponent of mortgage payments among existing homeowners,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “While mortgage principal, interest and property tax payments have all increased in recent years, insurance has far outpaced those gains, rising 4.9% in 2025, 11.3% annually and nearly 70% over the past five and a half years. That rapid escalation now means insurance alone consumes almost one in every ten dollars spent on average mortgage-related costs.”

https://mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports/september-2025-mortgage-monitor

It's a great time not to buy!

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's a great time to stay on the sidelines!

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's a great time not to buy!

Default rates are still below what they were pre-pandemic. Eventually over the next few years they should revert to the mean. Don't expect any great rush of people who are forced to sell.

Own or rent, you are gonna end up paying for the increase in insurance costs, unless you're living out of your car.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's a great time to stay on the sidelines!

Away from the sidelines more like it. Las Vegas will alway be at the whim the gambling. They got their stadiums for pro sports so construction jobs dried up and legal gambling is everywhere in the country so that tourist economy has taken a hit. I couldn't live there.

Cleveland is a weird one, but the few times I've been, total shit hole vibe. No redeeming qualities. Ohio is a strange state if you haven't been. Not as bad as Memphis, TN but close.

Everything else is on the sidelines as in the coasts. 1-2 hours or less to the beach. FL is obvious as retirees without enough savings finance a home down there. Insurance as you mention. South Carolina is a weird one, but as someone from IL and having Boomer family and friends it's a popular spot to buy, so probably inflated. And the random hurricane or flooding chance with insurance.

California is obviously inflated. I don't know when that house of cards comes down. Trump seems to be backpedaling on the H1-B thing.

Surprised Denver or Phoenix weren't in there.

Misc says

Don't expect any great rush of people who are forced to sell.

Average Boomer is 70 and they own ~60% of Residential R/E by value.

Inevitable Demographics, unless the Eagles and Santana and Billy Joel unleash miracle healing powers via speaker.

Nothing the Fed or Government can do to stop it.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Misc says

Don't expect any great rush of people who are forced to sell.

Boomers are 70 and don't own 70% of Residential R/E by value.

Inevitable Demographics, unless the Eagles and Santana and Billy Joel unleash healing powers via speaker.

And what does that mean?

GNL says

And what does that mean?

That means that in about 10 years, at least 35-40% of those now about age 70 will not be with us anymore and probably another 10-20% will be unable to executive enough of their ADLs (Activities of Daily Living: Cleaning, Cooking, Walking up/down Stairs to Basement Laundry or 2nd Floor Bedroom, etc.) to the point they will need some help or downsize.

It means they will be forced to change their living arrangements.



https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2025/

Singing "I will get by" won't stop the Circle of Life.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzvk0fWtCs0

How many are aged 70 and how many are in their homebuying years?

GNL says

How many are aged 70 and how many are in their homebuying years?

Or, who is going to buy their houses when they need to downsize, pay for assisted living, or pass on?

What happens when a million or so extra houses hit the market every year?

First half of Boomers are already in their 70s.
Gen Jones/Second half of Boomers are in their 60s.

The early 60s was a baby bust. The peak Boomer birth year is 1957 with 1955 being the average birth year (by age) of living Boomers.

Pretty much all Boomers except for the much smaller early 60s segment are now eligible for social security and most for Medicare.



Here are the number of persons born and alive in 2020:


In about 15-20 years, we'll have about half as many Boomers as we do today. IF they are as healthy as Silents, which is in question due to a drop in longevity due to higher rates of addiction and rise in obesity (in both sexes) vs. that cohort.

The annual mortality rate after age 65 is approximately 2%. After 75 it's 5%.

If we go by the median Boomer being about 70 years old in 2025, we will lose about 10% of all Boomers by 2030 and 30% by 2035.

That's not including house sales due to ADL downsizing or health cost coverage or transfer/moving in to relatives due to illness, just death.

I'm guessing about a quarter million excess homes going on market each year until 2030, when it will increase to about half a million.

Don't buy residential real estate now, esp. in the Sunbelt.

I dunno..historically the US has had about 5.5 million existing homes sell per year. For this year and last it has come in at about 4.5 million, so there's some room for extra sales. With the number of deaths to increase by about 3 million per year (the Boomer effect), that accounts for the missing 1 million units right there. That's also assuming that new builds equals those that are destroyed/abandoned/become uninhabitable.

Over the last 15 years or so, the occupancy rate per dwelling has been going up quite a bit. The mass media has been Doom saying generation Z's financial picture, and while a lot of it is true, that generation has the highest amount of financial assets for their age of any preceding generation. Their wages aren't bad,, the States are kicking in an average of $10k for new home buyers, and for about 1/2 of them their parents are kicking in some down payment assistance too.
Given the supply/demand dynamics..if interest rate spreads just go back to where they have historically been, I don't see any huge price decreases on a National basis.

Overall. I'd say it's too soon to tell.

I think GenZ is going to get the deal of a century if they wait to about 30-35 to buy their first home.

Millies that aren't on the shitjob wheel already brought a house, will mostly rent or sell the one they inherit (which will glut both the rental and buying market further). Why would they move from their high income NY, CA, IL, MN job to take a bigass pay cut in most of the Sunbelt? The Sunbelt is no longer the bargain it used to be, so it's not mitigated by the lower cost-of-living anymore much except for places like Arkansas.

GenX owns property already.

Who will buy?

In 2035 there will be roughly 3 adults for every person over 65. Again, Boomers own over half the residential real estate in the USA.

Rates won't change a thing. We had low rates for the 2010s and prices didn't rise much, almost all the explosion in house costs was due to COVID and COVIDflation. We had high rates in the 80s and people brought homes like crazy. The fundamental issue is the used house price being too high for incomes.

The reason for the delay in market price discovery is that too many are banking on getting their COVID peak house price. Homeloaners are "Sticky Upwards" in their perception of home value.

It's not the ~$300/month difference on $300k on 6.2% vs. 4.5%. It's that you can rent the same thing for the same or cheaper and not be responsible for roofs, HVAC, gutters, etc. And the higher the fundamental price, the higher the insurance and property tax which are tied to the price, not tied to the rate. For houses brought pre-COVID, buyers at the current price are going to get shlonged for more than $300 in the difference in homeowners and taxes between the seller's carrying cost and the purchase price.

If an area is supply constrained, the actual cost of building a new house (less builder profit) will be the benchmark for $/sqft for existing houses. Some adjustments down to be made for quality of construction/energy efficiency/amenities, but that’s going to be the basis. If you can’t build it for $150/SF, and it’s $180/SF, what rate the mortgage market is currently at isn’t going to mean shit WRT ultimate cost/sale price.