patrick.net

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Another factor in housing (see point 1, above)

MolotovCocktail says

...and the smarter bitches are starting to figure this out (too late):

MolotovCocktail says

When the feminism wears off:

AD says

How much do you see the median USA home price falling from its ~2022 high if the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate steadies between 5.75% and 6.25% ?

Well, let's see. The median priced home in 2022 was about $428,700. At 3.5%, the nut would be about $1,925/mo. To buy a $1,925/mo home at today's 6%, the home price would need to fall to about $322,000. To accommodate the slight wage inflation and the stickiness of falling prices, I suppose the same family that could afford $428,700 at 3.5% in 2022 could afford maybe $350,000 at 6% today. That could also be affected if property taxes and HOA fees had major increases since 2022.

So, I see a $350k median USA home price in late 2026 unless we get 50 year mortgages or gov sponsored down payments, etc.

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Boomers and Early Xers have absolutely nothing to bitch about, unless they blew it all on Jet Skis and Stereos or 3 Ex-Wives.

Correct, but there is the issue that localities like the inflated house values and set property taxes accordingly. Even when prices fall, the localities will not want to give up their accustomed receipts so taxes will stay inflated.

I realized this not too long ago. Government pumps up real estate, because many at the top are invested in it. There won’t be a crash, they’ll just print money like they did last 2 bailouts. Prices will only go up.

We are all on a tight leash.

See below.

Depends on location in Florida as Florida Panhandle like Panama City Beach is within a day drive of Chicago (for those with family there) and has white sand beaches as well as many non-tourism jobs like Navy base, Tyndall AFB, Project InSPIRE, a +700 worker electric boat design and construction campus, Florida State campus, Gulf Coast College campus, Florida State University teaching hospital, etc.

Panama City / Bay County is adjusting for future demographic changes.

I can see whereas The Villages does not have any major job centers within a 1 hour drive.

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15456887/retirement-home-florida-boomers-crisis.html

The problem is so bad, she said, that she does not know what will come of older, outdated retirement communities like Florida's The Villages, which is filled with Boomers.

'What is it, 350,000 homes in the middle of nowhere Florida?' she said.

'Is that gonna be low income housing at some point? Is it gonna be underwater in the future?

'Like, who's gonna live in The Villages once the Boomers are no longer on this earth?'

HeadSet says

So, I see a $350k median USA home price in late 2026 unless we get 50 year mortgages or gov sponsored down payments, etc.

Median price is now around $405,000.

MolotovCocktail says

MolotovCocktail says

MolotovCocktail says

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Best circumstance is median home price remains at $405,000 for next 5 years while

1) the 30 yr mortgage rate is no more than 6%
2) household income increases 3.5% a year

AD says

) the 30 yr mortgage rate is no more than 6%
2) household income increases 3.5% a year

Neither is going to happen.

Demographics is destiny.

House prices are going to fall over the next two decades and nothing can stop it.

The average buyer right now is 60 years old. Boomers buying from Boomers.

The whole housing market is frozen because sellers are holding out for $405k and most buyers are refusing to pay it, happy to enjoy declining rents and wait it out. The only buyers who are willing are maybe 5%, 10% tops of households.

Smaller households means no rush to find bedrooms for John and Jane and Joe (or today, Braden or Payton, and no other kid).

The same reason investors won't buy the $405k SFHs either (rents trending down, carrying costs and borrowing costs up)

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

House prices are going to fall over the next two decades and nothing can stop it.

Nothing? Try federal government, these people were able to print so much money to keep prices up, that prices of everything doubled last few years. You been to Walmart or any store lately? Everything doubled or tripled, including stocks. There are no productivity gains, we just inflated everything x2. Fed actually was forced to raise rates to prevent run away inflation, pissing off Trump who is into permanent inflation like the rest of federal government. Elites on both sides are invested into same markets, same hedge funds, they all want inflation. This is how we get national debt, ever increasing prices, and destruction of the middle class.

Yes, I think probably all "economic gains" have come from inflating prices. And increasing the annual deficit.

GNL says

Yes, I think probably all "economic gains" have come from inflating prices. And increasing the annual deficit.

That’s where all of it came from, we live in very strange times.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Nothing? Try federal government, these people were able to print so much money to keep prices up, that prices of everything doubled last few years.

A temporary blocking maneuver that doesn't work for long. And all it does is freeze home sales and makes them unaffordable even more anyway. Wages are not keeping up.

Demographics is running this show no matter what.

I can see the Feds printing money to give first time buyers a nice down payment. Won't be enough for Tier 1 markets but could make a difference in breaking the frozen markets in exurban/red state America while keeping prices from falling badly a little bit longer.

Of course, there will be fraud, etc. Esp with immigrants.

And the Feds only have to politically keep the can kicking for 10 or so years, not forever. Just to keep the Boomers livin' in style before the bulk of them die off. This is also what is meant when we say "Demographics is running the show..". It's a Clusterfuck candle for assets burning at both ends of the demographic trend.

Dropping rents increase consumer's disposable income.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Nothing? Try federal government, these people were able to print so much money to keep prices up, that prices of everything doubled last few years. You been to Walmart or any store lately? Everything doubled or tripled, including stocks. There are no productivity gains, we just inflated everything x2. Fed actually was forced to raise rates to prevent run away inflation, pissing off Trump who is into permanent inflation like the rest of federal government. Elites on both sides are invested into same markets, same hedge funds, they all want inflation. This is how we get national debt, ever increasing prices, and destruction of the middle class.

Printing Money didn't keep housing assets high in 2008-2012. It did bailout the banks

Investors in SFH are grossly exaggerated. Confined to a handful of markets, they've been leaving for 2-3 years now, and was never big. And "Investors" are 80% "Mom and Pops" with less than 50 properties. Not big REITs or Blackrock. They are also not banks.

They're simply not getting the rents as projected and the carrying costs rose. They will continue to abandon markets slowly, and in fact will help propel homeloaners into realism, just as the builders are.

There was also a huge upswing in multifamily construction starting in Obama's 2nd term and accelerating into COVID, which was not there in 2008.

Printing money isn't going to do jack and shit to bring about a buyer's market, just like it didn't during the Great Recession.

Homeloaners are just now, after about a year, slowly realizing it's not a seller's market anymore, many quarters after builders and investors realized that. This is the "Sticky Upwards". They made excuses last year, but this year they'll have to face reality if they want - or have to - cash out.

Bad knees can only be shoveling snow or climbing up to the second floor for so long, before the Florida Condo or Arizona Ranch has an irresistable siren song.

Not every Millennial that inherits wants to move across country to spend months finding a job in the Sunbelt, nor make 30% less. Florida pays less than $40k on average to teachers. Minnesota and New Jersey and Ill Noise pays well over $70k, that's a lot more than the savings with no income tax. Arizona and Texas only pay $62k

Don't forget the joy of living in a retirement community:
"Normal people go to bed after Jeopardy! Stop talking so loud in the screenroom at 8:30PM on Friday Nights!"

Whatever happened to the news that Trump was going to allow 401(k) withdrawals to buy a house?

In a January 23, 2026, press interaction (today's date in your time zone), President Trump publicly distanced himself from the idea, stating he was "not a huge fan" of it. He cited the strong performance of retirement accounts as a reason to preserve those funds rather than encourage withdrawals for housing. Trump's adviser Kevin Hassett had previously suggested the plan as a way to help young buyers, but Trump omitted any mention of 401(k) changes in his recent housing policy executive order, which focused instead on curbing large institutional investors from buying single-family homes and other mortgage support measures.

As a result, the 401(k) withdrawal concept appears to have been shelved or deprioritized, with no formal announcement or implementation.

Patrick says

Whatever happened to the news that Trump was going to allow 401(k) withdrawals to buy a house?

In a January 23, 2026, press interaction (today's date in your time zone), President Trump publicly distanced himself from the idea, stating he was "not a huge fan" of it. He cited the strong performance of retirement accounts as a reason to preserve those funds rather than encourage withdrawals for housing. Trump's adviser Kevin Hassett had previously suggested the plan as a way to help young buyers, but Trump omitted any mention of 401(k) changes in his recent housing policy executive order, which focused instead on curbing large institutional investors from buying single-family homes and other mortgage support measures.

As a result, the 401(k) withdrawal concept appears to have been shelved or deprioritized, with no formal announcement or implementation.

It’s so sickening to me that we’re looking to the government to “help”. Too much government, regulations and monopolies and/or corporations have turned our housing market, let alone the entire economy, into a top down managed one.