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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   406,139 views  4,502 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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1007   Ceffer   2022 Oct 4, 11:01am  

Crimey. Stock market pile gone up over 4 percent so far in last two days. Dead cat bounce before more downward spiral?
1008   Ceffer   2022 Oct 4, 12:58pm  

As we know from the abundant illustrations of centralized psychopathic lunacies illustrated by the pre-90's Russian Communism and China, their terrorist policies result in escalating cascades of unintended consequences.

Clif High thinks that all the deaths from the vaccines will cause a lot of deflation by releasing houses from the older people and dead BoomFucks. He claims in his own circles there is massive death and morbidity amongst the older vaxxers (unattributed, of course, except by word of mouth and direct observation). WEF and Fed depend on fiat printing and various forms of inflation to remain viable. Deflation wrecks them. So, the terrorist policies of programmed vax democide will cause what they dread most.

Maybe I'll be able to buy a few beach houses from croaked Silicon Valley libs next year, LOL! There were a few brand new homes off of 41st Street, developed on the ocean. Their timing couldn't have been worse for the release, and the homes are currently being viewed at about 3.2 to 3.3 million or so for two story/2car garage small lot places 2200 to 2600 sq. ft or so. I ferried the wife over to swan about the models, and I really think the two agents thought the places would fly off the blocks. The two we saw looked literally like they were sweating bullets, not happy campers. Price progression on these will be interesting come winter.

Wait, watch pounce for those who have ready cash for investment?
1010   AD   2022 Oct 4, 1:10pm  

Ceffer says

Wait, watch pounce for those who have ready cash for investment?


Not sure if we'll have the same amount of blood shedding like we did 2008 to 2011 for housing.

Maybe a 20% drop even in popular areas like northwest Georgia (about 90 to 120 minutes northwest of Atlanta).

From what I've seen of various records like sales transactions on Zillow, that would bring residential real estate back to mid 2020 levels.

The Fed wants to wipe out even the COVID inflation-gains from stocks and housings.

.
1011   Ceffer   2022 Oct 4, 1:10pm  

"This Clif High ?"

Self proclaimed seer of the various Woos. He does have a solid background in data analysis, so even with grains of salt, his stuff is interesting.
1012   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2022 Oct 4, 4:23pm  

Our old house that we sold in CA, still getting Redfin alerts on it, has dropped in price, not a lot though. Mostly due to higher interest rate and seasonal (winter low demand).

Inflation is fucking high, so once rates go down, prices will start climbing IMO. Anything short of nuclear armageddon pretty much guarantees CA housing going up. But after all the fuckery they did I'm glad to have moved on. Some things are worth more than money.
1013   Ceffer   2022 Oct 4, 7:31pm  

cisTits says

WTF! The housing 'experts' of PatNet painted a world where this wouldn't be happening!

You need to get them two hours before the pot and booze kick in.
1015   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 5, 5:26am  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/new-york-offices-to-see-453-billion-in-value-wiped-out-due-to-remote-work
I haven't found an archive link yet.

NYC Offices to See $50 Billion in Value Wiped Out, Study Says

Researchers estimate the value of the city’s stock of office buildings will remain well below pre-pandemic levels given the rise in remote work
1016   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Oct 5, 5:27am  

We(don't)Work.
1017   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 5, 5:29am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/comments/xvqpgu/what_do_you_guys_think_of_the_highlighted/

What do you guys think of the highlighted verbiage concerning the commission adjustment if the offer is less than asking? I don't remember ever seeing this condition in my area. It certainly wouldn't stop me from showing the property, but I'm curious as to how common it is in other areas.

1018   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 5, 5:35am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/xvkhz5/too_early_to_talk_about_close_assistant_with_the/

Too early to talk about close assistant with the builder? [New construction 6 months out]

Currently building a new construction with a smaller local builder.

Looking at the local market comps have fallen off substantially, and I'm anticipating having issues appraising anywhere near the price that we signed on the dotted line. I think we're down about $100k now and as rates continuing going up I suspect we'll be down even more come close.

While we have savings to make up the difference (within reason) it's not something we would be happy about doing and having negative equity.
1020   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 5, 5:38am  

https://www.realpage.com/analytics/us-apartment-demand-plunges-3rd-quarter/

U.S. Apartment Demand Plunges in 3rd Quarter as New Leasing Stalls More than Expected
1021   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 5, 5:40am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/xvfl2q/unexpected_payment_increase/

So I bought my first house last year and things have been great. My mortgage was purchased by another lender and now I'm paying the new mortgage company. This is normal from what I understand. I create a login for the new company and it shows next months upcoming payment. It is increasing 300$ more monthly.

I called and asked about the increase and they said it was because of taxes. I know I have a fix rate that cannot change, therefore my mortgage should change for the life term of it. I called the tax department and they confirmed every 5 years, they re-asses the property value and my property value increased by about 60k. I asked why and the tax agent stated its due to the market conditions and what surrounding properties are selling for.
1024   Ceffer   2022 Oct 5, 7:49am  

All knowing eye of 'Christine' on Telegram:
"What are the odds. 3 huge financial news stories hitting on the same day.
Can we connect some dots?
Phil has previously done this.

Story 1

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20221003closed.htm

Emergency meeting behind closed doors for the Fed today.
Is the meeting about inflation?
Get more aggressive in rate hikes or pivot and slow them down?

Or, as I suspect the meeting is about story 2?

Story 2

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/03/credit-suisse-seeking-to-assure-investors-amid-financial-concerns-ft.html

Credit Suisse is on suicide watch. It’s broke and desperately needs to raise capital.
If it goes belly up then it will take Deutsche bank with it then contagion panic sweeps Europe and begins the global debt system collapse.
They desperately need cash injections and some form of bailout.

Story 3
The price of silver spiked up this morning.
This is a huge deal.
JPM Chase is the biggest holder of silver and has been the one that has helped controll the metals prices to prop up the dollar.
Suddenly the price jumped up.
But why?
My opinion is JPM needs to raise capital in order to help bail out Credit Suisse because all these corrupt banks are broke and if one big one goes down they all do.
So they pushed the price of silver way up in pre market when volume is low so they can sell into the rally to raise capital.
Why do I think that?
Look at the chart.
It “gapped” way up at the open.
Stocks always fill the gaps which tells me this rally is short lived and probably won’t make it through the end of the week.
It will go back down and fill that gap down at 17.77 fairly soon.
But this is a good sign. The global debt system is panicked and on the brink.
Same wig with the stock market that gapped up today.
Dead cat bounce."
1025   mell   2022 Oct 5, 8:44am  

I don't see any significant reduction in house prices yet, except for those who tried to fetch sky high amounts for their shacks and are not thrown back into reality in a more competitive market with lesser buyer (or people qualifying to buy). Maybe a 5%-10% reduction from the top so far in select CA areas.
1026   Shaman   2022 Oct 5, 9:16am  

In my hood the prices have come down maybe $75k on average. However, only 4 sales occurred in the last 30 days. 12 homes on the market. It’s a small neighborhood. Avg for 3/2 is $900k right now. A two story like mine is $1.1-1.2 depending on size/upgrades.

It will drop more. Betting another $75k before it hits a bottom. And I’d predict more except for the inflation.
1027   Blue   2022 Oct 5, 10:50am  

Does anyone recommend SFH/Apt investment in CT near Hartford or New Haven preferably to beat SP500 index. I know someone who lives and bought an investment propertiy few years ago, says the market is mild and swings are much less in either side.
1028   AD   2022 Oct 5, 12:36pm  

1029   Shaman   2022 Oct 5, 12:39pm  

Blue says

Does anyone recommend SFH/Apt investment in CT near Hartford or New Haven preferably to beat SP500 index. I know someone who lives and bought an investment propertiy few years ago, says the market is mild and swings are much less in either side.


Always heard that area was a real shit hole.
1030   charlie303   2022 Oct 5, 1:23pm  

Mortgage Application Pace Plunges To 25-Year Low As Housing Recession Deepens

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/mortgage-application-pace-plunges-25-year-low-housing-recession-deepens
1031   AD   2022 Oct 5, 1:34pm  

Shaman says

Always heard that area was a real shit hole.


most of connecticut is a shithole ...its the mississippi of the northeast ... greenwich and mystic are okay but that's about it ...
1032   AD   2022 Oct 5, 1:38pm  

iShares US Home Construction ETF

December 2006: $43
February 2020 : $50
Dec 2021: $83 (all time high)
June 2022: $49 (recent bottom)
current: $56

.
1033   mell   2022 Oct 5, 1:45pm  

ad says

Shaman says


Always heard that area was a real shit hole.


most of connecticut is a shithole ...its the mississippi of the northeast ... greenwich and mystic are okay but that's about it ...

Well at least the shoreline is pretty nice (smaller towns) and even areas like glastonbury are quite nice. It's humid though. The reason RE is relatively affordable is that the leftoids raised taxes like lunatics and drove away all the businesses, and with it many people.
1034   Booger   2022 Oct 5, 5:18pm  

The only reason why CT isn't much worse is because of all the people fleeing NY.

Disclosure: I'm from NY originally.
1035   pudil   2022 Oct 5, 6:33pm  

zzyzzx says




This seems misleading. Why do a chart of inventory growth yoy? It doesn’t tell you anything. If Raleigh had 2 homes for sale and 2021 and now has 4, that’s 100% inventory growth. It’s still not enough houses.

Show a chart of days on market or price to list comparisons for 2021 vs 2022.
1036   richwicks   2022 Oct 6, 12:34am  

@Bitcoin, I'm seriously worried about you.

Are you still alive? I'm really asking this and I'm not being glib. Are you alive?
1037   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Oct 6, 7:52am  

"For many [home] sellers, it likely feels like the rug has been pulled out from underneath them"

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A few early reporting markets …

This is the first look at local markets in September. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a sharp decline in closed sales, and inventory is up significantly year-over-year. Also, new listings are down as the sellers’ strike continues. The increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.

Denver, Las Vegas, and San Diego

Here are some local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

Using months of inventory as a metric indicates that Denver Metro is moving toward a balanced market. … However, for many sellers, it likely feels like the rug has been pulled out from underneath them. Price reductions are rising, while active listings at month end rose 10.72 percent to 7,683. Pending sales declined 15.41 percent for both detached and attached homes month-over-month, which directly relates to a 6.38 percent decline in sales volume month-over-month.

emphasis added

From Las Vegas Realtors® Las Vegas area home prices hold steady after three-month slide LVR housing statistics for September 2022

“The good news for buyers is that it has been at least three years since we’ve had this many homes available for sale.” [said LVR President Brandon Roberts, a longtime local REALTOR®. ]

By the end of September, LVR reported 8,121 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s up 134.5% from the same time last year. Likewise, the 1,849 condos and townhomes listed without offers in September represent a 194.4% jump from one year earlier.

LVR reported a total of 2,554 existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold in September. Compared to one year earlier, sales were down 36.7% for homes and down 39.7% for condos and townhomes.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/for-many-home-sellers-it-likely-feels



1039   WookieMan   2022 Oct 6, 10:24am  

richwicks says

@Bitcoin, I'm seriously worried about you.

Are you still alive? I'm really asking this and I'm not being glib. Are you alive?

I'm not gonna be too harsh, but he was a pumper. Likely freaked and lost his ass on crypto. Mind you he bought at the 2nd peak and may have dumped it. Crypto will run again, but I think that's the last time. I'd have gotten 100% out this last time if I had a net profit. The crypto future is bleak. If it's digital gold it should be rising in a time of war and massive inflation. It's not. So it's hard to come back here and eat the shit he was spewing.
1040   Blue   2022 Oct 6, 10:28am  

Gold mine! is that a sarcasm. It’s $500/sft 43y old with full of termites if not maintained well. Poor school ratings too.
1041   Eric Holder   2022 Oct 6, 10:32am  

exfatguy says


$1.4 million in Gilroy for a home on less than a 10,000 square foot lot? Is there a gold mine under the house?


The choo-choo is going to pass through these parts. Maybe they are gambling on the house being bought out under imminent domain.
1042   Ceffer   2022 Oct 6, 11:32am  

Eric Holder says

The choo-choo is going to pass through these parts. Maybe they are gambling on the house being bought out under imminent domain.

Nah. Guv will just nuke the tract with DEW's and give them pennies on the dollar for the burned out lots. DEWs are the new urban redevelopment and condemnation tools. The big ZAPEROO from space. Idiot ants think it's just an unaccountable force of nature.
1043   richwicks   2022 Oct 6, 1:09pm  

WookieMan says


The crypto future is bleak. If it's digital gold it should be rising in a time of war and massive inflation. It's not. So it's hard to come back here and eat the shit he was spewing.


It's not workable as a currency. It's too expensive to do a transaction and too slow. I won't touch it.

I had some scammer try to get me into it (not Bitcoin) very recently, that's the death knell, when people who are UNQUESTIONABLY scammers are trying to get you to buy it. It was a true tulip. If they ever produce a cryptocurrency that is very cheap, or free, to trade, that might be a winner, but it can't use a distributed hash table. I don't know if it's possible to do this.

But I'm seriously worried about Bitcoin, he had a bad reaction to the vaxx and then insisted on getting another, and I've not heard from him since.

On April 26 he said he was going to get a "booster" and 8 days later was his last post he ever made here.
1044   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Oct 6, 1:44pm  

WookieMan says

it's hard to come back here and eat the shit he was spewing

If you say so. I blocked her/him a long time ago because I was just tired of reading those.
1045   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Oct 6, 1:48pm  

richwicks says

On April 26 he said he was going to get a "booster" and 8 days later was his last post he ever made here

My fit-as-a-fiddle then 69 year old friend "died in his sleep, no autopsy" within days of getting the second vaccine.

Yes, yes, - I know: 69 years old. He was a very fit 69 year old. He'd swim 2 miles of laps in the pool at the gym like it was nothing. Climb Mission Peak on a morning stroll like it was a walk in the park. Now he's gone.
1046   AD   2022 Oct 6, 1:59pm  

cisTits says

Perfect example of Russian propaganda. Because the PatNet 'experts' on real estate haven't told us this shit is happening! And we all know their word is gold!


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7202-W-Cherry-Hills-Dr-Peoria-AZ-85345/7700622_zpid/

it last sold for $116,200 in June 1998

appreciate this 5% annually over 24 years to find the bottom price

(1.05)^24 x $116,200 = 3.225 x $116,200 = $374,757 (suggested bottom price)

It currently is for sale for $444,000, down from its initial price of $495,000 this past June

.

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