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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   487,512 views  4,882 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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3240   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 3:44pm  

You could spend your time doing something worthwhile. Something that benefits society. Heck, even the guilded age rich did more for society. And then thankfully they were broken up. Only to face it again.
3241   AD   2023 Aug 25, 4:13pm  

GNL says

You could spend your time doing something worthwhile. Something that benefits society.


I think Habitat For Humanity is one example of this. I'd like to see more of this to help bring affordable housing.

Another is volunteer time as a lawyer, dentist, doctor or even a tutor for math and science. Or volunteer to help fix cars owned by the lower working class.

.
3242   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 5:16pm  

ad says


GNL says


You could spend your time doing something worthwhile. Something that benefits society.


I think Habitat For Humanity is one example of this. I'd like to see more of this to help bring affordable housing.

Another is volunteer time as a lawyer, dentist, doctor or even a tutor for math and science. Or volunteer to help fix cars owned by the lower working class.

.


Even starting a business can be a big benefit to society. I own a business and am very proud of that. My business benefits me but only if I benefit many many people. The business I am in is one that makes it possible/feasible for an independent person to start and succeed in their own business. We are committed to eliminating the middle man in my industry. Possible? Probably not but, we shall ceaslessly continue on to our goal.

I find it interesting that the only people on Patnet that beat their chests are those in RE. Do Eman and Rubicon (I think he's changed his name again) really think they are the only multi millionaires on this forum?
3243   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 5:37pm  

Beating my chest? In what way? I stay in the circle of my competency and talk about what I know. I I stick to facts and don’t like to speculate.

People whine and bitch about Prop 13 and talk about affordable housing while they don’t know why builders couldn’t build affordable housing in CA. Then they claim builders are being greedy while they keep voting for the same clueless politicians, who are good at shifting the blames to others while not providing any solutions?
3244   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 7:22pm  

You're right Eman, I shouldn't have included you in that comment.
3245   Blue   2023 Aug 25, 7:29pm  

Eman says


People whine and bitch about Prop 13 and talk about affordable housing while they don’t know why builders couldn’t build affordable housing in CA. Then they claim builders are being greedy while they keep voting for the same clueless politicians, who are good at shifting the blames to others while not providing any solutions?

You are mixing so many unrelated topics into Prop 13 to confuse. Not sure if that is intentional to get fat tax subsidies at the expense of the rest.

Look at this interactive map: https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/
Would you believe that this $9m mansion in ritzy Presidio Heights pays the same tax as a $300k starter home in Richmond?
Does Atherton needs tax subsidy of average $35k/year where ultra rich live!
3246   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Aug 25, 7:40pm  

prop 13 isn’t a problem, at least not in single family. i know many old people in ca, if prop 13 gone they’d be on the street. after paying all their life, on a street when they can no longer provide. that’s unimaginable cruelty. there’s a lot of wrong in america and CAlifornia, how its ran, corruption, selfishness, but it isn’t in prop 13. just look at policies that drive up rents, it’s nuts. and the more costs get added, the higher costs go. i’m of same opinion as eman on buying… rents will always catch up and surpass in a long run in CA.

nobody here has a solution, because there isn’t a simple one, every solution requires a lot of pain with no guarantee of results.
3247   AD   2023 Aug 25, 7:43pm  

Blue says

Would you believe that this $9m mansion in ritzy Presidio Heights pays the same tax as a $300k starter home in Richmond?


I guess that is why the sales tax is 7.25% in California (compared to 4% for Georgia) and the income tax would be very high for the owner of this mansion if they make a lot of money as a California full time resident.

The California sales tax and the income tax compensate for the low property tax ?

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3248   Patrick   2023 Aug 25, 7:45pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says


i know many old people in ca, if prop 13 gone they’d be on the street.


That was the excuse used to transfer cash from workers to rich landowners.

It would be very simple to add a means test to Prop 13, or just let the elderly defer the taxes until they die and the house is sold.

But they didn't do that. They made Prop 13 apply to billionaires and businesses as well, because the whole point is to cheat the rest of the public. But like I said, when everyone is trying to cheat everyone, then everyone loses.

“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”
― Frédéric Bastiat
3249   RWSGFY   2023 Aug 25, 7:59pm  

Prop 13 was a tax revolt. "Conservatives" arguing for MOAR TAXES is a hilarious sight to behold.
3250   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Aug 25, 8:05pm  

patrick they should not have income tax and property tax at all. moment taxes exist, lots of hands go for the pot of gold. its why they never go down, only up. spending gets no cuts, so any tax cut at fed level gets into debt slavery financing bucket.

i wouldn’t trust this government with means test, im not black i’d get fucked by that in a heartbeat. i’m no longer in ca, but i remember it well.
3251   SunnyvaleCA   2023 Aug 25, 8:54pm  

ad says

I guess that is why the sales tax is 7.25% in California

7.25% is just the state part of the sales tax. The county and city add additional. It's common to see total sales tax of more than 9%.
3252   Patrick   2023 Aug 25, 8:56pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says


patrick they should not have income tax and property tax at all.


@FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden The way to prosperity for everyone is:

1. no income tax at all
2. no sales tax at all
3. no tax on BUILDINGS
4. the sole tax to be on land values

This is Georgism. Hong Kong partially implemented this and it works very well.
3253   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 9:48pm  

Blue says

Eman says



People whine and bitch about Prop 13 and talk about affordable housing while they don’t know why builders couldn’t build affordable housing in CA. Then they claim builders are being greedy while they keep voting for the same clueless politicians, who are good at shifting the blames to others while not providing any solutions?

You are mixing so many unrelated topics into Prop 13 to confuse. Not sure if that is intentional to get fat tax subsidies at the expense of the rest.

Look at this interactive map: https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/
Would you believe that this $9m mansion in ritzy Presidio Heights pays the same tax as a $300k starter home in Richmond?
Does Atherton needs tax subsidy of average $35k/year where ultra rich live!

@Blue,

Let’s offer some solutions here. Let’s say repeal Prop 13 now. Shouldn’t everything be reset to 1978 including sales tax, state income tax rate, no more rent control, reduce the city permit fees for new construction, etc… to 1978 prices? Wouldn’t this be a fair proposal?
3254   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 9:50pm  

Patrick says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says



patrick they should not have income tax and property tax at all.


FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden The way to prosperity for everyone is:

1. no income tax at all
2. no sales tax at all
3. no tax on BUILDINGS
4. the sole tax to be on land values

This is Georgism. Hong Kong partially implemented this and it works very well.

You’re kidding right Patrick? Do you know how expensive is HongKong real estate market?
3255   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 9:52pm  

ad says

Blue says


Would you believe that this $9m mansion in ritzy Presidio Heights pays the same tax as a $300k starter home in Richmond?


I guess that is why the sales tax is 7.25% in California (compared to 4% for Georgia) and the income tax would be very high for the owner of this mansion if they make a lot of money as a California full time resident.

The California sales tax and the income tax compensate for the low property tax ?

.

Sales tax is 9.375% in San Jose. The property tax includes several thousand dollars in special assessments on top of the “claimed 1% or 1.25%”…
3256   AD   2023 Aug 25, 10:02pm  

Patrick says

4. the sole tax to be on land values

This is Georgism. Hong Kong partially implemented this and it works very well.


During feudalism in Europe, those who were rich and had control over the poor and working class were the landowners.

So this seems like a good idea as far as stopping the tyranny of landowners.

.
3257   Blue   2023 Aug 26, 2:23pm  

Eman says

Let’s offer some solutions here. Let’s say repeal Prop 13 now. Shouldn’t everything be reset to 1978 including sales tax, state income tax rate, no more rent control, reduce the city permit fees for new construction, etc… to 1978 prices? Wouldn’t this be a fair proposal?

Turning a regressive tax regime into a fair one:
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/reform
3258   Eman   2023 Aug 26, 3:13pm  

Blue says

Eman says


Let’s offer some solutions here. Let’s say repeal Prop 13 now. Shouldn’t everything be reset to 1978 including sales tax, state income tax rate, no more rent control, reduce the city permit fees for new construction, etc… to 1978 prices? Wouldn’t this be a fair proposal?

Turning a regressive tax regime into a fair one:
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/reform

“One thing that needs to be acknowledged is that we are focusing solely on property tax here. Income tax in California is quite high (largely to compensate for the lower property tax rates). A "total tax" ranking of California would likely put it higher than #18.”

@Blue, the above quote is directly from the link you shared. If you and/or the author believe Prop 13 is the holy grail in solving CA housing crises as well as tax revenue problem, let’s reset everything to 1978 basis including state income tax, sales tax and whatever else and go from there. I’m always for a fair proposal. The problem is will the politicians listen to any of your or anyone on Patnet’s ideas?

My family came to this country way after 1978. All my siblings are property owners, who bought as early as 1996 and as late as 2018. No one complained about Prop 13. We never saw it as a problem, fair or unfair. It’s like playing a game. We dealt with the in-place rules and regulations, and made the best of what this country has to offer. We love America.

As of now, we all recognize the affordability housing crises for the next generation so we’re putting our brains together and figuring out how to have them afford housing here. No complaints in our family. We just try to solve problems. Complaints don’t get us anywhere in this household, or country. Did I say we love this country? 🥰
3259   SunnyvaleCA   2023 Aug 28, 12:22pm  

Patrick says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says



i know many old people in ca, if prop 13 gone they’d be on the street.


That was the excuse used to transfer cash from workers to rich landowners.

It would be very simple to add a means test to Prop 13, or just let the elderly defer the taxes until they die and the house is sold.

But they didn't do that.

Actually, they did do that, at least in Santa Clara county. If you are over a certain "retirement" age you can ask the county to just put a lien on your house for the amount of the taxes owed. I'm not even sure if you have to pay interest on that automatic "loan." Does the house have enough value to back that lien? Well, if the house didn't go up in value then the taxes wouldn't go up either, so exactly the same people who need the lien are the same people whose house has enough increased value to support the lien.
3261   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Aug 30, 2:20pm  

ad says


Patrick says


4. the sole tax to be on land values

This is Georgism. Hong Kong partially implemented this and it works very well.


During feudalism in Europe, those who were rich and had control over the poor and working class were the landowners.

So this seems like a good idea as far as stopping the tyranny of landowners.

.



google doesn’t own land, yet it owns politics… just saying the obvious. there aren’t simple bad guy good guy here. ca has entire system built on bullshit and socialism. S8 people get 3-8k rent subsidy, go compete with that as a working man. you need 96k post tax just to break even. wait till you guys see other subsidies they get. holy cow! this is one of many reasons why no taxes will ever be enough.

american government trillions in debt… and they fucking give us credit score… deadbeats.
3262   Patrick   2023 Aug 30, 9:07pm  

Eman says


You’re kidding right Patrick? Do you know how expensive is HongKong real estate market?


@Eman Not kidding. Hong Kong real estate is so expensive because Hong Kong is so prosperous.

Because of the money from the land value tax in Hong Kong, they have a low income tax and sales tax there. They have a maximum income tax of 17%. Here in the US it's 37% max federal, plus close to 10% for California.

And there is 0% sales tax on most goods and services in Hong Kong.

All thanks to their land value tax!
3263   RWSGFY   2023 Aug 30, 9:18pm  

Patrick says

Eman says



You’re kidding right Patrick? Do you know how expensive is HongKong real estate market?


Eman Not kidding. Hong Kong real estate is so expensive because Hong Kong is so prosperous.

Because of the money from the land value tax in Hong Kong, they have a low income tax and sales tax there. They have a maximum income tax of 17%. Here in the US it's 37% max federal, plus close to 10% for California.

And there is 0% sales tax on most goods and services in Hong Kong.

All thanks to their land value tax!


Aaaand they are CCP bitches now.
3265   WookieMan   2023 Aug 31, 7:51pm  

Eman says

As of now, we all recognize the affordability housing crises for the next generation so we’re putting our brains together and figuring out how to have them afford housing here. No complaints in our family. We just try to solve problems. Complaints don’t get us anywhere in this household, or country. Did I say we love this country? 🥰

This. Learn the game, plan and figure it out. Whining ain't fixing anything. It's easier for people to bitch though, so that's not going away.

Put this way as an example. South Shore Chicago, I'm exponentially more likely to get randomly shot and killed. I don't go there. I'm not going to bitch about the crime and all that crap, I just don't go there. Our society has become weak and unknowledgeable. They rely on government too much instead of their own instinct or rely on others that lie to them. Figure it out on your own. Don't rely on government. Don't rely on media. See what's in front of you. Learn a new thing or get a new skill. People are flat out lazy now. It's bad.
3266   Patrick   2023 Aug 31, 8:18pm  

RWSGFY says

Aaaand they are CCP bitches now.


Yes, but that has nothing to do with the land value tax.
3267   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Aug 31, 8:24pm  

Patrick says

Eman says



You’re kidding right Patrick? Do you know how expensive is HongKong real estate market?


Eman Not kidding. Hong Kong real estate is so expensive because Hong Kong is so prosperous.

Because of the money from the land value tax in Hong Kong, they have a low income tax and sales tax there. They have a maximum income tax of 17%. Here in the US it's 37% max federal, plus close to 10% for California.

And there is 0% sales tax on most goods and services in Hong Kong.

All thanks to their land value tax!


just interesting thing for you guys here. i’m in a red state again. if land tax is up, farmers go out of business. cities are different, very different. city land is consumption, country land is production. of course there are speculation faggots everywhere. but general terms. i’m all for 0 taxation and fuck this government. because i see too many poor fucked by the system.
3268   WookieMan   2023 Sep 1, 1:06am  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

if land tax is up, farmers go out of business.

FW, do you know any farmers? Farmland is taxed at mostly nothing in every region. Talking under $200/acre. Farmers are getting waaaaaaaaaaay more than $200/acre in crop yields, which outside of equipment and fertilizer is one of their biggest expenses... and it's low.

The only way a farmer isn't making a shit load of money is if they've leveraged the land to buy a lifestyle. My kids are friends with two prominent farmers here in IL. They aren't remotely poor or struggling. Property taxes could triple and they'll still be rich. Farmers cry poor a lot. Most are millionaires. Fact is there's only so much land. They have a lot of it and they can produce stuff people need on a daily basis. I wouldn't listen to farmers that complain. They likely went out and bought a bunch of toys leveraged by their land with credit.
3269   richwicks   2023 Sep 1, 4:40am  

WookieMan says

The only way a farmer isn't making a shit load of money is if they've leveraged the land to buy a lifestyle. My kids are friends with two prominent farmers here in IL. They aren't remotely poor or struggling. Property taxes could triple and they'll still be rich. Farmers cry poor a lot. Most are millionaires.


Dude, I knew farmers. They work from sunup to down, 7 days a week, no vacation. It's a very demanding job. I have some LIMITED experience with it, I couldn't do it, most people can't. Tending a large garden, that's hard enough, handling dozens of animals? Forget about it.

It's a completely alien mindset to most people. Just having a couple cows is trouble. Patrick had chickens - just having 1/2 a dozen isn't easy. You are suddenly on a schedule, you can't leave them alone, you have to constantly worry about predators, you have to feed them. Like it or not, they become family of a sort - you become responsible for them. It's not trivial or easy to farm.
3270   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 5:18am  

Wookie knows about farming also? Who could have known?
3271   AD   2023 Sep 1, 1:50pm  

Two articles today about housing on prices going down

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/home-prices-may-be-on-the-verge-of-cooling-off/ar-AA1g6WaN

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/01/home-prices-rise-in-july-but-may-be-on-the-verge-of-cooling-off.html

So housing affordability is becoming a lot more a news topic, as CNBC reports: "It now takes roughly 38% of the median household income to make the monthly payment on the median-priced home purchase, according to Black Knight. That makes homeownership the least affordable it’s been since 1984."
3272   Patrick   2023 Sep 1, 3:04pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

if land tax is up, farmers go out of business


@FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden

No, that won't happen. In Georgism, the tax is set at only the value of the rent on unimproved land.

If the farmer can rent out unimproved land for, say, $1000 per month, then his tax would be $1000 per month and he can obviously afford it.

The farmer would pay ZERO tax on the increased income from improved land. So once he improves the land (with ditches or whatever) and can bring in $2000 per month, he would STILL pay only $1000 per month.

The idea is to encourage improvements, and discourage mere non-productive land ownership.

Even better, the farmer would pay ZERO tax on his income above that $1000, and ZERO sales tax on everything he buys.

There would be only one tax, the tax on unimproved land values. Everyone would be better off except for the people who are trying to suck money out of productive people via land rents.
3273   Eman   2023 Sep 1, 3:52pm  

“In July, the sales pace of new homes climbed 4.4% compared to June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 714,000. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 31.5%.“ - Impressive.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/new-home-sales-picked-up-significantly-in-july-can-it-last/
3274   RWSGFY   2023 Sep 1, 4:31pm  

So Georgism is like Prop13 on steroids?
3275   AD   2023 Sep 1, 4:56pm  

Eman says


“In July, the sales pace of new homes climbed 4.4% compared to June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 714,000. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 31.5%.“ - Impressive.


Median house price peaked at $480,000 and has dropped to $416,000 by end of April 2023, so it has dropped about 14%.

It likely has dropped present day below $416,000.

This article says end of July 2023 the price was $407,000 : https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/home-prices-spike-to-over-400-000-after-5-months-of-declines/ar-AA1g2ngf

.
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3276   Patrick   2023 Sep 1, 5:15pm  

RWSGFY says


So Georgism is like Prop13 on steroids?


@RWSGFY

Georgism is the opposite of Prop 13 on steroids.

Prop 13 is pretty close to the worst law ever made, shoveling money up to the very rich at the expense of people who actually work.

It was justified with "Don't kick out grandma!" but never included any means test, and did include landlords and businesses. The result was that the very rich and landlords and businesses profited, and people who actually do work were hurt. Regular house owners were bribed to go along, and betrayed all morality when they did so.

The right answer is to:

1. never tax the building, tax only the land, but ALWAYS tax the land value
2. let the elderly defer the land value tax until they die
3277   RWSGFY   2023 Sep 1, 7:20pm  

You can defer
property taxes once you are over certain age in CA too, so let's keep this noise out.

Georgism is exactly
like Prop13 because it's the same "buy your land in 1970 and pay 1970 property tax in 2023". Except with Prop13 your property tax still grows albeit at a preset rate while under G-ism it doesn't, hence G-ism is Prop13 on steroids. People who
like Georgism but dislilke Prop13 must suffer from
cognitive dissonance.
3278   Patrick   2023 Sep 1, 7:50pm  

Under Georgism, your land value tax adjusts with the value of the land.

This is very different than Prop 13, which is an attempt to never have any significant property tax increase.
3279   GNL   2023 Sep 1, 7:55pm  

Patrick says

Under Georgism, your land value tax adjusts with the value of the land.

This is very different than Prop 13, which is an attempt to never have any significant property tax increase.

Didn't you do a big write up on this? Maybe repost it here? I think it has legs as an idea. I love America and would hate to see it become a 3rd world country. I read that 25% of all homes are owned by corporations? True?

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