patrick.net

I guess this means Dallas is a coastal city, according to the Housing Experts of PatNet.

GNL says

Maybe Prop 13 was initially passed thinking it would limit government from growing. Hahaha, I know.

I read a book about the origin of Prop 13. Here's what I got out of it:

- Started with the case Serrano vs Priest, in which blacks and Hispanics in California argued that they were being discriminated against because their schools were not as good as schools in white and Asian neighborhoods.

- It was decided that instead of locally funding schools, CA property taxes would all go to the state to be redistributed "fairly".

- People in rich neighborhoods did not like that because it damaged their own schools.

- Howard Jarvis, backed by business interests, decided to covertly appeal to the resentments of the rich, and publicly make the case about "people on fixed incomes being forced out of their houses by property tax". But without ever planning to limit relief to just those people. In fact, his goal all along was to get permanent property tax limits on business.

- So we ended up with Prop 13, a whopping huge gift to the biggest businesses by making everyone else pay their property taxes for them via increased sales and income taxes. But people in rich neighborhoods were also pleased with the limits on the amount they would have to pay the state to be redistributed to poor schools. And their own schools mostly recovered in quality through various private fundraising and schemes like the Mello-Roos property tax: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mello-Roos

Overall, it was an epic cluster-fuck all around. Did not improve schools in poor areas, and made the rich in California much richer.

My old boss's boss from Schwab has a house in Palo Alto that he just leaves empty. It's worth maybe $7 million now. I asked him why he doesn't rent it out to at least pay the property tax. He laughed and said "Because you pay my property tax for me!" referring to Prop 13.

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

Newcomers get fucked for the benefit of the old-timers. Two identical houses next to each other might pay property taxes which are wildly different.

Patrick says

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

Newcomers get fucked for the benefit of the old-timers. Two identical houses next to each other might pay property taxes which are wildly different.

Won't change anything. Seniority based systems always frustrate new entrants at first. But it doesn't take that long before they feel like they 'have enough time in' to switch opinions on the matter.

Remember AOC raising hell against the Seniority in the House during her first two terms? Now she's as much as a total sellout as they are. Of course, going from being a broke ass bartender to having a $30 million net worth was pretty good K-Y jelly lube for that.

Patrick says

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/ covers some areas.

GNL says

Maybe Prop 13 was initially passed thinking it would limit government from growing. Hahaha, I know.

It was a tax revolt.

Patrick says

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

This is pretty easy information to get. You can check the 'tax history' on Zillow to get a rundown of taxes vs. assessed value. Most county records of tax history can be viewed online for parcels.

There are inheritors all over my hoods in both Santa Cruz and Tri Valley.

Patrick says

He laughed and said "Because you pay my property tax for me!" referring to Prop 13.

This is one reason why, understandably, people want to eat the rich.

RWSGFY says

GNL says

Maybe Prop 13 was initially passed thinking it would limit government from growing. Hahaha, I know.

It was a tax revolt.

CA needs next tax revolt that pegs everyone’s taxes to back then. It wont happen though, too many businesses live off taxes.

Ceffer says

Patrick says

One strategy for ending Prop 13: Just make a zoomable searchable map of the whole state that publishes the extremely different property tax that everyone pays. It's all public info, in theory.

This is pretty easy information to get. You can check the 'tax history' on Zillow to get a rundown of taxes vs. assessed value. Most county records of tax history can be viewed online for parcels.

There are inheritors all over my hoods in both Santa Cruz and Tri Valley.

I think what Patrick is saying is that by making a dedicated map/website that explicitly shows the unequal treatment under Prop 13, more people will become incensed by the discrimination and something might actually be done about it.

People know the tax difference. This isn’t opening anyone’s eyes. You guys need to lower taxes on the rest somehow.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/reverse-logans-run

“We thought we hit rock bottom but we keep discovering there’s more rock bottom to be had. You have a lot of people being afraid of what’s to come.”

…In Las Vegas, active listings shot up more than 38% from a year earlier while sales plunged 15%, according to Redfin data for the four weeks through July 20…

“Sellers who need to sell will make it happen,” O’Hare said. “I had a listing at $950,000. I cut it down to $799,000 and had three offers.”

Patrick says

“Sellers who need to sell will make it happen,” O’Hare said. “I had a listing at $950,000. I cut it down to $799,000 and had three offers.”

Seems like the homes that are selling in Florida have a 20% discount from all time high price in early 2022, or at least in Panama City Beach.

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AD says

Seems like the homes that are selling in Florida have a 20% discount from all time high price in early 2022, or at least in Panama City Beach

The condition of those homes with the 20% price cut should also be taken into consideration.

OTOH that pending homes chart is also showing things too upbeat. There are also record numbers of contracts that just don't work out. So the real sales numbers are really in the gutter.

Fortwaye says

People know the tax difference. This isn’t opening anyone’s eyes. You guys need to lower taxes on the rest somehow.

You might be surprised. My ancient neighbor ($1100/year) didn't seem to realize.

There are some pretty big differences in prices in my neighborhood. Check out $1113 jumping to $33,104 on change of ownership. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Ron DeSantis mentioned trying to make Florida a no-property-tax state, which I think would make it the only one in the country.

SunnyvaleCA says

Ron DeSantis mentioned trying to make Florida a no-property-tax state, which I think would make it the only one in the country.

Politicians will do anything to keep property prices from falling.. Given the state of things in Florida, he might even try a reverse property tax. Just because something sounds like it won't work doesn't mean a politician won't try it.

Misc says

AD says

Seems like the homes that are selling in Florida have a 20% discount from all time high price in early 2022, or at least in Panama City Beach

The condition of those homes with the 20% price cut should also be taken into consideration.

OTOH that pending homes chart is also showing things too upbeat. There are also record numbers of contracts that just don't work out. So the real sales numbers are really in the gutter.

These are no more than 12 year old townhomes in at least good shape.

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MolotovCocktail says

I guess this means Dallas is a coastal city, according to the Housing Experts of PatNet.

It's 4h25m to Galveston. Thats a weekend trip to the coast. I make a drive like that up to WI every month in the summer to get on a lake because IL doesn't have good ones.

If you can go to the beach on a weekend, you're coastal. Pack Thursday night and leave at 7am Friday. Leave Sunday at 2-3pm. That's coastal. You can argue all you want about this, but this is where and why most people live in the places they do. Coastal areas. Houses are priced higher 5 hours within the coast and only get higher the closer you get. When there's a downturn they drag the national average down, but most don't feel it in the rest of the nation.

Then there's shitty cities like Minneapolis. Overbuilt Denver and Phoenix (still semi coastal, not Denver). Arkansas and Missouri are different animals. Got one user driving through them now. The value drops there are a nothing burger compared to coastal regions.

It's okay to admit you don't understand real estate. Let me know how many years you've been in the business or run a business?

SunnyvaleCA says

Fortwaye says

People know the tax difference. This isn’t opening anyone’s eyes. You guys need to lower taxes on the rest somehow.

You might be surprised. My ancient neighbor ($1100/year) didn't seem to realize.

There are some pretty big differences in prices in my neighborhood. Check out $1113 jumping to $33,104 on change of ownership. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

That’s insane, 3 million. To be fair if someone can afford 3 million to buy a house, they can afford 30k tax.

I’m still shocked by how much money people have out there paying so much.

SunnyvaleCA says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Crap box.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

SunnyvaleCA says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Crap box.

I actually went to the open house when it was for sale. Particularly interesting to me because it's the exact same house as my shack. (Well, technically it's a mirror image.) The original owner still had almost all completely original house! Pink tiles in the guest bathroom; thin plywood doors on the kitchen cabinets with black-painted wrought-iron handles! Oven and cooktop actually looked original, too, if you can believe that. It was like visiting a time-capsule. Funny enough, the buyer didn't bulldoze the whole thing. Instead if been rehabilitated ... STILL being rehabilitated after 1.5 years. It's nearly done. But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

SunnyvaleCA says

But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

I can think of a million other scenarios I'd rather find myself in.

SunnyvaleCA says

But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

$300k is insane for a rehab of 1,555sf. Our new place is $700k roughly at 2,400sf with 4,800sf total with basement. Basement, driveway, 200' of sidewalk, landscaping, lots and of course the interior and exterior shit. All new from the ground up. Not cheap builder grade stuff either. I'd love to get $3M for my house but that's retarded.

WookieMan says

But can you imagine paying $3MM, followed by $300k rehabilitation, waiting nearly 2 years, and then finally moving into your not-new 1555 square foot house! Yikes.

This is life in the Bay Area.

WookieMan says

$300k is insane for a rehab of 1,555sf.

As BACAH notes, this is California with an extra bonus cost for Bay Area. If you wanted to bulldoze, you'd pay a bundle just for the bulldozing of hazardous materials (lead paint mitigation and probably also small amounts of asbestos) and then the building permits would be expensive and slow down the works even more.

A while back there was a house that came to internet fame because it had suffered a fairly extensive fire damage but went up on Zillow "as is." It promptly sold for $xxx above asking all-cash. That got me thinking that, actually, a burned out house might allow you to skip some of the extra costs associated with bulldozing a house, so buying such a house would actually fetch a premium because it is already destroyed.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Cheshire-Way-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19614174_zpid/

Crap box.

Only bought because they work in Sillycon Valley. Not like its a Baby Boomer or recently retired Gen X'er vacation home in Panama City Beach.

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WookieMan says

Not cheap

You really need to stop basing your reality on Dumfuq, IL.

You do not know what the words 'not cheap' mean

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Not cheap

You really need to stop basing your reality on Dumfuq, IL.

You do not know what the words 'not cheap' mean

Is AD lying when he talks about townhomes in PCB? High $200's. Minutes from the gulf.

Here's some data and links. All are below $400k and closer to around $300k and a few new.

MO: On water and a dock included https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1034-Indian-Pointe_Osage-Beach_MO_65065_M89125-41916

FL: Probably somewhat near AD. Community amenities and close to amazing beaches. Far enough from the shore to likely avoid storm surge. Can't avoid the wind. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/The-Aldridge_Liberty_6225-Chapman-Lane_Panama-City_FL_32404_P417000746682

IL: Not near me. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2230-Barbera-Dr_Oswego_IL_60543_M94606-46827

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/507-Sangamon-Ln_Dixon_IL_61021_M80139-59679

https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/illinois/chicago/malta/prairie-springs/aspen/18918710831

WI: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/301-Harbour-Town-Dr-Apt-326_Madison_WI_53717_M78159-10302

MT: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/917-N-17th-Ave-Apt-3_Bozeman_MT_59715_M85556-10308

AZ: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2609-N-65th-Dr_Phoenix_AZ_85035_M18172-88318

OH: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1011-Brookview-Blvd_Cleveland_OH_44134_M31969-68548

I could go on forever. There are plenty of homes out there for 3-4x a McDonalds two income home. CA is not the country. There are plenty of cheap homes out there. You selectively quoted as usual. I was talking about the materials.

WookieMan says

Not cheap builder grade stuff either.

Let me know the last house you built. I'll wait.

WookieMan says

Let me know the last house you built

What does that have to do with anything?

You don't know shit outside of Dumfuq, IL on that topic, either. ESPECIALLY on that topic.

WookieMan says

You selectively quoted as usual.

Right. You make universalist statements all based on Dumfuq, IL. I quote you and...that's 'selective quoting'?

One can not make 'selective' quoting out of universalist statements. Just like something AND something else is not something AND/OR something else except in your little world as well.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Let me know the last house you built

What does that have to do with anything?

You don't know shit outside of Dumfuq, IL on that topic, either. ESPECIALLY on that topic.

I actually do. It's okay you don't know. You're talking about land value, not building materials and labor. Building costs are generally universal across the country. They're within 5%-10% on the high end, which really is nothing. $20-40k on your average home build. Custom mansions is completely different. A 1,500sf home rehabbed or new build is about the same nationwide price wise.

My house would cost the same in CA as IL. It's the value of the land. Patrick has brought this up before with Georgism or whatever the term is.

Again. I'm also talking about the materials. Trumps gold bathroom is going to be more expensive than mine with Kohler plumbing fixtures. While you probably go with Glacier Bay. Something I use 30-60min a day is important to me.

As usual, you're missing the point. Tear down the house and rebuild it. The value is in the location of the land.

WookieMan says

As usual, you're missing the point. Tear down the house and rebuild it. The value is in the location of the land.

The land here is really expensive, but I think you are wrong about the cost of building. It's more like 2x the cost compared to other states. Between higher labor costs, sales tax (nearly 10%), higher cost of materials (because the warehouses that hold the stuff have to charge more because it costs them more), etc. And then there's permitting; that alone can cause stratospheric costs and long delays.

Just look at the California "high speed" train to nowhere... 10 years in, billions spent, and not a single foot of track laid.

Or look at the improved southern approach to the Golden Gate Bridge — a series of upgraded approach roads. It cost more than the original Golden Gate Bridge even after adjusting for inflation.

WookieMan says

Is AD lying when he talks about townhomes in PCB? High $200's. Minutes from the gulf.

here you go boy

this one sold recently and look at how far it is away from the world's best beaches, boy ...

and the starting hourly wage for service workers is now $16 an hour on average in Panama City Beach, according to what I've learned going to the local economic development alliance meetings and also from bubba/redneck friends who I fish with

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1882-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87630869_zpid/

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WookieMan says

There are plenty of homes out there for 3-4x a McDonalds two income home.

yeah boy, i could take you about 45 minutes north of panama city beach and there are homes (not trailers) selling for around $230,000

i think i saw a dr horton or toll brothers ad about a new single family detached homes selling for $225,000 near chipley or defuniak springs (about an hour north of panama city beach)

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SunnyvaleCA says

The land here is really expensive, but I think you are wrong about the cost of building. It's more like 2x the cost compared to other states. Between higher labor costs, sales tax (nearly 10%), higher cost of materials (because the warehouses that hold the stuff have to charge more because it costs them more), etc. And then there's permitting; that alone can cause stratospheric costs and long delays.

Ahem, Homie: we are wrong and he knows.

Because he is an Expert on just about everything: day to day life in California and the Bay Area, real estate values in the Florida Panhandle, aviation, aerospace, manufacturing, military combat. Oh yeah, and what exactly is a "coastal" region (like Dallas Texas).

MolotovCocktail says

You don't know shit outside of Dumfuq, IL on that topic, either. ESPECIALLY on that topic.

Yes he does. He Knows It All. No bother posting a disagreement.

Just kick back and enjoy the entertainment of hilarious over-the-top assertions.

AD says

this one sold recently and look at how far it is away from the world's best beaches, boy ...

When talking condos/townhomes note that most tent to have high HOA fees. Your example has an HOA fee of $420/mo.

WookieMan says

You're talking about land value, not building materials and labor.

I think you are confusing me for what someone else posted.

WookieMan says

My house would cost the same in CA as IL.

Really? Tell me. Do IL require basically two plumbing systems in order to deal with grey water? Or is that optional per the person having the home built (because they are California Fuktards moving in). Just one example.

HeadSet says

When talking condos/townhomes note that most tent to have high HOA fees. Your example has an HOA fee of $420/mo.

Yeah, but the HO-3 or HO-6 insurance is lower since the insurer knows that the HOA covers "master insurance" (i.e., coverage of "dry wall out"), and other home ownership costs are saved such as on landscaping and replacement of the roof.

I drove by a DR Horton community northwest of Panama City Beach (about an hour away) and they were showing around $240,000 for single detached homes with garages. I suspect the HOA assessment is no more than $50 a month there.

AD says

I drove by a DR Horton community northwest of Panama City Beach (about an hour away) and they were showing around $240,000 for single detached homes with garages. I suspect the HOA assessment is no more than $50 a month there.

With teaser rate incentives. Why pay just $20-40k less for an 80s-90s era ranch at the full rate with no teaser? Any "Savings" in price is just the minimal amount to bring things up to date, clean out the ducts, replace the water heaters and countertops, get rid of the dark grout spaced "Florida Tile", paint over the billard green walls, the handle-less white (now off-white from age/dust) cabinets with the darker wood colored frame, replace the rose-colored sink with the crystal ball faucet, Duran Duran era golden-framed mirrors and built-ins if any, etc. Oh, and end up with 100-200 sq ft less under air if one picks the older house, too. And likely a smaller garage if any at all.

At least there's no Hotel California wood paneling.

This real estate market (nationally) is so interesting. Once time and increasing demographic pressure pries the "sticky upwards" mentality finally off the wound, prices will collapse. Fed could drop the rates 2% and it won't prevent the inevitable price discovery.