patrick.net

The world will not be the same in a week.

The stock market will fluctuate.

I'll make a few predictions.

Europe will go through massive protests, and their economy will start to collapse.

The war in Ukraine will continue to at least June, 2023.

Ukraine will ultimately lose the conflict.

It will become generally accepted by 2024 that the vaccines were neither safe nor effective.

The democrats will mysteriously retain control of congress in both the house and senate this November.

Refresh your history memory a little bit.
The Japanese Empire which was vastly more capable tried for 8 years to defeat China and did not achieve this goal.
Of course China is vast compared to Ukraine.
But the difference between Japan's capabilities and China's was far more in favor of Japan; Chinese soldiers sometimes had to wear straw sandals instead of boots, sometimes no helmets, had shitty guns and training, etc.
Today Ukraine arguably has better (Western) missile and artillery technology than Russia, and its army is motivated while Russia's is forced to be there (conscript=not volunteer).

Ranked Countries Rate of Overweight or Obese Individuals (2015)

Saudi Arabia 71%
The United States 66%
Turkey 65%
Australia 62%
Great Britain 62%
Spain 58%
Germany 57%
Russia 57%
Brazil 56%
Canada 56%
Italy 50%
France 49%
China 28%
Japan 23%
India 20%

"Buddha, you fat fuck!"

ZipperTits says

richwicks says

Ukraine will ultimately lose the conflict.

Criteria, please. Because I can see mental gymnastics like "sure, they restored their borders, but they still lost because I say so".

richwicks says

It will become generally accepted by 2204 that the vaccines were neither safe nor effective.

I'm guessing you meant 2024. Or are you really that pessimistic about humanity?

California's sales tax rate goes to 15% or higher in 2023.

You see...California has been funding a large part of itself through funny money. Capital gains taxes make up an oversized portion of California's tax base. With the Fed now raising interest rates instead of having them hover near zero, it is causing the stock market to decline (so less free money for those taxpayers and less taxes for California), the number of house sales has also been greatly reduced so less taxes from that source too, taxes from crypto gains --- forget about it.

Sure they will layoff some people...but mostly things will fall onto the tax donkeys.

mell says

I think if you're otherwise healthy and carry enough weight 1-2, occasionally 3 glasses a day are fine if you go to regular check ups, but only if you don't mix with drugs and exercise regularly, which many don't know. Regular exercise is key to a healthy liver

My BIL died drinking a handle of vodka a day for YEARS. The big bottle if you're not a drinker. At 41. It takes a fuck ton of alcohol to kill you. My grandma was an alcoholic and lived to 94. Alcohol is awful, but I'm convinced that it's pills that bring you down. He had multiple rehab stints and put him on meds. That's when his health went to shit.

Put this way, how do you study an alcoholic in a controlled environment? You can't. They won't admit they have a problem and they lie. Then you don't know what they're mixing it with. One addiction generally leads to others. Pills, weed, etc. With modern medicine and prescription pills we've blurred the lines of liver damage in my opinion with regards to alcohol. It's bad for you obviously, but if you just drink and not mix is it that bad? Hell it was safer to drink a beer than water at one point in history.

As I've said in other comments, I'm at the alcoholic level for sure based on arbitrary data. I feel great. I can wake up at 4:30 in the morning and go till midnight, working, taking care of kids and hanging out. I drink beer, which I think is key. I'm almost at my high school weight. Never a hangover. Without doing beer bongs, it's a challenge to get trashed on beer. Hard liquor is the devil unless you're extremely disciplined. Wine can get you in a bad place too, though that's a bit harder in my opinion.

"All Western currencies are going to 0" sez one guy:

https://patrick.net/post/1347533?start=1#comment-1880796

Nukes! Nukes!

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=1882142

Tactical nuclear is not the Hiroshima bomb. And US better hope none of their proxy war opponents pull these out. We are way behind Russia and China in this area.

NuttBoxer says

Tactical nuclear is not the Hiroshima bomb. And US better hope none of their proxy war opponents pull these out. We are way behind Russia and China in this area.

We don't really need them. We have MOAB which Trump used and no nuke fallout or international reaction. Nuke will kill civilians no matter what and war crimes ensue. We're also a huge land mass, but basically an island to most the world really. You'd have to lob ICBM's at us. Good luck with that. We have subs in every hot spot in the world and could retaliate once we knew where they came from.

Our government is corrupt, but they do get the MIC right. We occupied a country for 20 years and lost fewer soldiers than Chicagoans shooting and killing each other. Across the planet. Love or hate war mongering, we have far superior means to destroy people. Which is generally the only thing the federal government should be doing, well infrastructure, but that's about it.

Eric Holder says

Here I will collect bold predictions so we can see what came true and what didn't.

I predict that this thread is a trap, and Eric Holder will mock you later and damage
your credibility when your predictions don't turn out to be 100% true.

apex says

Eric Holder says

Here I will collect bold predictions so we can see what came true and what didn't.

I predict that this thread is a trap, and Eric Holder will mock you later and damage
your credibility when your predictions don't turn out to be 100% true.

WookieMan says

Our government is corrupt, but they do get the MIC right.

West has been selling military secrets and tech since the 50's. We would get destroyed. This would make more sense if you knew the history of the Rothschild's.

NuttBoxer says

WookieMan says

Our government is corrupt, but they do get the MIC right.

West has been selling military secrets and tech since the 50's. We would get destroyed. This would make more sense if you knew the history of the Rothschild's.

West might be selling but it doesn't look like Ruscia was buying much of its tech and secrets (beyond stuff like ready-made French NV and German diesels). Why didn't they buy any good secrets? Why Uragan is such a primitive shit compared to HIMARS?

I predict Western Florida will be hit by a large hurricane today.

RWSGFY says

West might be selling but it doesn't look like Ruscia was buying much of its tech and secrets (beyond stuff like ready-made French NV and German diesels). Why didn't they buy any good secrets? Why Uragan is such a primitive shit compared to HIMARS?

If that's true, why hide behind Ukraine like a bitch, using Ukrainians for cannon fodder? Why not just roll in and fuck Russia up like we've been doing in the Middle East for 20+ years?

NuttBoxer says

RWSGFY says

West might be selling but it doesn't look like Ruscia was buying much of its tech and secrets (beyond stuff like ready-made French NV and German diesels). Why didn't they buy any good secrets? Why Uragan is such a primitive shit compared to HIMARS?

If that's true

There is no if. It's true.

clambo says

Today Ukraine arguably has better (Western) missile and artillery technology than Russia, and its army is motivated while Russia's is forced to be there (conscript=not volunteer).

Ukraine has a conscription army as well.

Russia has committed less than 15% of its force to the conflict. They don't have to do anything other than retain lines, and really, they don't even have to do that. Time is on their side. Ukraine has 2.5 military people for every 1 Russia commits to this conflict.

Remember this isn't really a war between Ukraine and Russia, it's a war between NATO and Russia. Europe doesn't have the infrastructure to abandon Russian energy, and even if they did, the US cannot supply them. Europe is fucked and it was stupid traitorous leaders that fucked Europe.

The aim was obviously to use the Ukrainians to weaken Russia - and that might happen, but at the expense of destroying Europe. It's said that Henry Kissinger once remarked “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal”. Europe is about to find out.

There is no morality in war, there are no good guys, or bad guys, there's just devastation.

RWSGFY says

ZipperTits says

richwicks says

Ukraine will ultimately lose the conflict.

Criteria, please. Because I can see mental gymnastics like "sure, they restored their borders, but they still lost because I say so".

Ukraine will eventually settle on an unconditional surrender.

It will not become part of the EU, it will expel NATO, the biological weapons labs will be removed, Russian majority cities will become part of Russia and no longer Ukraine, Crimea will be unquestionably part of Russia.

Ukraine MAY become a landlocked nation, Ukraine will likely have a Russian puppet as their "leader", they may be forced to drop all ties with the West.

I expect it to be absolutely devastating for Ukraine, and painful for Russia as well.

I also think it's possible that Russia will quit exporting energy to Europe entirely.

I'm not happy about this, I just predict it. I think this war could have, and should have, been easily avoided. I blame a Jewish mafia for starting this stupidity, and the fucking CIA. Everybody that dies in this conflict will have died in vain, but Russian and Ukrainian. I expect Ukrainian Jews to be hated by non Jewish Ukrainians in the end.

I further predict that resentment toward the United States will raise greatly in Europe after friends and family members die this coming winter. The US, in the end, may have greatly reduced influence and reach although Europe will be dependent on US energy and Middle Eastern energy (controlled by the United States) far more.

Karloff says

richwicks says

It will become generally accepted by 2204 that the vaccines were neither safe nor effective.

I'm guessing you meant 2024. Or are you really that pessimistic about humanity?

You got me, I corrected it before I noticed your reply hoping people wouldn't notice it.

I don't know if by 2204 if the people living them will know any of our true history. I'm kind of working on that as a project. How can I absolutely preserve history?

We live in an incredible time, an insanely remarkable time. We live in a time where our lives and actions can be recorded, entirely accurately, and PROVIDED this data can be preserved, can be observed 2000 years from now. We have the technology now. Imagine being able to see what the Roman civilization was actually like in 0 AD, that's humanity in 4000 AD. It's possible today, and there are ways to have WORMS (Write Once Read Many) that will not just last 1000 years, but millions of years.

Storage density in crystals is so dense, you may have a hard disk in 2030 where you NEVER delete anything from it, you just keep adding data and you just invalidate old data - you'd mark it as "deleted" but the data would be retained.

I was just doing some simple math, 1GB/hour is 1080p video quality (high quality). On a 10 TB hard disk (around $200 now), that's 10,000/1GB/hr = 10,000 hours of video. If you watched video 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, that's 5 years of video. $200. I've probably not consumed that much video in my lifetime, and I'm 51. Hard disks have a limited lifespan, but this LAB crystal storage method, it's like 500 TB or 500,000 GB, or 57 years of video, at 1080p 1 GB/hr 24 hours a day 7 days a week, and the storage basically lasts forever.

We're getting to the point where there's no point in deleting data. Is this a fucked up time or what?

We are getting into weird WEIRD times. An entire life, every interaction, everything a person sees and hears over their entire lifetime, can be permanently preserved. Don't know what the cost of the technology is right now, but it will be below a current hard disk in time. People can't wrap their head around how nuts this is.

Every TV show, every radio show, every song, every phone call, every book you've read, every conversation you had, and NOW be stored on an affordable hard disk. Didn't think this would happen in my lifetime, but we're here now.

We are moving from storage density, to longevity. We may be able to permanently record our history, and make it independent of any authority. There's negatives too, we can be recorded entirely too by the government, but if we can preserve SOME freedom, we can record the government just as easily.

richwicks says

RWSGFY says

ZipperTits says

richwicks says

Ukraine will ultimately lose the conflict.

Criteria, please. Because I can see mental gymnastics like "sure, they restored their borders, but they still lost because I say so".

Ukraine will eventually settle on an unconditional surrender.

It will not become part of the EU, it will expel NATO, the biological weapons labs will be removed, Russian majority cities will become part of Russia and no longer Ukraine, Crimea will be unquestionably part of Russia.

Ukraine MAY become a landlocked nation, Ukraine will likely have a Russian puppet as their "leader", they may be forced to drop all ties with the West.

(Quoting so it doesn't get edited later)

Care to specify a timeline? Will it happen some time this year, this decade, this century?

cisTits says

Eric Holder says

Care to specify a timeline? Will it happen some time this year, this decade, this century?

Can we settle for "when the war is over"? I mean, I would be impressed if he gave dates and they proved out. But not going to ask.

That's too vague. Besides, what war? Its a Schepeshal Military Opereyshun (SCHMO), remember? With stated goals changed at least 23.5 times already...

cisTits says

Ukraine is at the end of its ropes as far as men is concerned.

Eh? They have 8 mil mobilisation potential. Some ropes, LOL.

cisTits says

submarines that aren't germane at all

This is like... your opinion... man.

But yeah, since the subject of pigs has been brought up the submarines do look less relevant.

cisTits says

Eric Holder says

This is like... your opinion... man.

No. It is fact. Just because you didn't read the article you wrote that response back to doesn't magically change reality.

You were lazy, got caught but acted like the WH spokes bitch saying "No, Biden didn't say/do that..."

What is the fact? I don't need no stinking articles to know that the idea of diving 70 meters with a pack of explosives and setting the whole thing up (times 6) w/o a surface support vessel which is bound to be detected and traced back is fucking looney tunes. It's either submarines or pigs, period.

PS. Argue on the merits, don't pull the whiny richwicks-style tangents filled "you... you... you". It's boring.

cisTits says

Eric Holder says

Care to specify a timeline? Will it happen some time this year, this decade, this century?

Can we settle for "when the war is over"? I mean, I would be impressed if he gave dates and they proved out. But not going to ask.

I expect the Ukraine Russian war to go on for multiple years. BOTH Nordstream pipelines were destroyed I'm hearing, but the Nordstream II wasn't active. The US wants to make Europe dependent on the United States, and perhaps destroy it, so they will keep this war going for as long as possible.

The US is run by total fucking madmen and people at this point are outright stupid to trust the US government. They are no longer "naive" or "mistaken", they are stupid. How many "mistakes" do these assholes have to make before people realize none of these are mistakes? They always want to be seen as incompetent instead of criminal, but they are criminal.

I hear the most stupid thing I'v heard in a while today. Condoleezza Rice said that "Russia would run out of cash before the Europeans run out of energy". Europe is going to be fucking burning money at some point just to stay warm.


original link


That's at 7:40.

I cannot believe that ANYBODY is so stupid as to think you're better off with "cash" than with the stuff you buy with cash. I can't believe anybody is really that stupid. Russia doesn't need cash for anything. There is literally NOTHING Russia needs to buy from Europe or the United States - NOTHING at all.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=1883145

cisTits says

Eric Holder says

I don't need no stinking articles to know that the idea of diving 70 meters with a pack of explosives and setting the whole thing up (times 6) w/o a surface support vessel which is bound to be detected and traced back is fucking looney tune

Such dives and underwater work is well within the abilities of your typical commercial company that does this sort of thing.

Just because you can't accept that reality or acknowledge you didn't know that doesn't excuse your intellectually retarded bullshit. I am sorry. But that is the truth.

And so that also means you don't get to BS about 'merits' when you are being deliberately disingenuous.

Explain how your "typical commercial diving company" would avoid their support vessel being detected by various means of surveillance and traced back, my dear unretarded friend. The dive itself is piece of cake on tri-mix, doing it w/o very traceable dive boat is the trick.

cisTits says

RWSGFY says

Explain how your "typical commercial diving company" would avoid their support vessel being detected by various means of surveillance and traced back

Simple. They go over the area in the ship, let them dive over board. Keep on a going. Then come back.

Also, you seem to think that spot is under 24/7 survelliance. It wasn't. The gas leak wasn't detected until Danish fighter jets flew over it, for example.

It was not detected because nobody was looking for it. The data being collected is not automatically going in front of human eyeballs 100% of the time. But when they go into all the data looking for something they would find the weird vessel maneuvers over the spot of interest.

@RWSFGY

perhaps the most productive collection of predictions would be from early days of Russian attack on Ukraine. I believe most of PDS crowd made brilliantly flawed predictions, which makes me think that their current predictions will be wrong as well.

richwicks says

Ukraine will likely have a Russian puppet as their "leader"

Well, they already did, then the US replaced him with their own puppet who funneled lots of money to the Biden crime family.

It's never over.

Eric Holder says

What is the fact? I don't need no stinking articles to know that the idea of diving 70 meters with a pack of explosives and setting the whole thing up (times 6) w/o a surface support vessel which is bound to be detected and traced back is fucking looney tunes. It's either submarines or pigs, period.

How hard is it to make a robot that follows a metal pipeline and then explodes after travelling some pre-programmed distance?

This operation could have started on land. There's no need for a support vessel, or having divers do this. The only location I can get for where the rupture is Bornholm, which is about 50 miles from where the pipeline hits land at Lubmin. That's kind of a brute force way of doing it, it's easy enough to use a robot sub to find the point and then dive and find the pipe, and kaboom.

There's really no reason to involve people in these sort of operations in setting up the explosions. This isn't 1950. I would bet this could have been done remotely, quite easily, in 2000.

PREDICTION: PUTIN FACES 'IRREVERSIBLE’ DEFEAT: Russia’s retreat from a key logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region in the face of advancing Ukrainian forces is not only another embarrassing defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin but may also mark a fundamental shift in momentum in favor of Ukraine, say former U.S. commanders.

“No amount of shambolic mobilization, which is the only way to describe it, no amount of annexation, no amount of even veiled nuclear threats can actually get [Putin] out of this particular situation,” said retired Army Gen. David Petraeus on ABC on Sunday. “He is losing, and the battlefield reality he faces is, I think, irreversible.”

“The reality facing Russia now is that Ukraine, a country a third the size of Russia, has a bigger, much more effective army on the ground, and other assets as well,” said Petraeus. “He's already lost a really critical element in that, a critical city that would have been a very key supply hub had they been able to go farther. And that's just going to continue. He's going to continue to lose on the battlefield. And at some point, there's going to have to be recognition of that.”

The liberation rail hub of Lyman (pron: lee-MON) came as Russian forces melted away without a fight, taking up what the Russian Defense Ministry called “more advantageous positions.”

“This is a tremendous victory for the Ukrainians. And it's a victory that I think that they could turn into a cascading series of defeats of Russian forces,” said retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster on CBS. “What we might be at here is really at the precipice of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, a moral collapse.”

“They must really be at a breaking point, if you look at just the numbers of casualties, the vast area that they're trying to defend,” said McMaster, former President Donald Trump’s first national security adviser. “I think it's very important also to understand that these forces that are in full retreat now out of Lyman were really the first round of mobilization. … Those forces were hastily trained, thrown into that front, and these are the forces that are collapsing right now.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/russian-army-on-precipice-of-collapse-say-us-generals-as-russian-retreat-from-lyman-marks-tipping-point-in-seven-month-war-in-ukraine

cisTits says

OMG total NeoCon propaganda.

Esp coming from Prataeus and WashEx.

Good thing it's registered in the predictions thread.

cisTits says

Established facts are not predictions.

Spoilsport.