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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ


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2022 Dec 26, 9:49am   53,106 views  779 comments

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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ

Allysia FinleyDec. 25, 2022 6:20 pm ET

Toyota’s CEO delivers a timely warning, and many states echo it.

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda recently caused the climate lobby to blow a fuse by speaking a truth about battery electric vehicles that his fellow auto executives dare not. “Just like the fully autonomous cars that we were all supposed to be driving by now,” Mr. Toyoda said in Thailand, “I think BEVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe.” He added that a “silent majority” in the auto industry share his view, “but they think it’s the trend, so they can’t speak out loudly.”
The Biden administration seems to believe that millions of Americans will rush out to buy electric vehicles if only the government throws enough subsidies at them. Last year’s infrastructure bill included $7.5 billion in grants for states to expand their charging networks. But it’s a problem when even the states are warning the administration that electric vehicles aren’t ready to go mainstream.

Maine notes in a plan submitted to the Federal Highway Administration this summer that “cold temperatures will remain a top challenge” for adoption, since “cold weather reduces EV range and increases charging times.” When temperatures drop to 5 degrees Fahrenheit, the cars achieve only 54% of their quoted range. A vehicle that’s supposed to be able to go 250 miles between charges will make it only 135 miles on average. At 32 degrees—a typical winter day in much of the country—a Tesla Model 3 that in ideal conditions can go 282 miles between charges will make it only 173 miles.
Imagine if the 100 million Americans who took to the road over the holidays were driving electric cars. How many would have been stranded as temperatures plunged? There wouldn’t be enough tow trucks—or emergency medics—for people freezing in their cars.
The Transportation Department is requiring states to build charging stations every 50 miles along interstate highways and within a mile of off-ramps to reduce the likelihood of these scenarios. But most state electrical grids aren’t built to handle this many charging stations and will thus require expensive upgrades. Illinois, for one, warns of “challenges related to sufficient electric grid capacity, particularly in rural areas of the state.”

Charging stations in rural areas with little traffic are also unlikely to be profitable and could become “stranded assets,” as many states warn. Wyoming says out-of-state traffic from non-Tesla electric vehicles would have to increase 100-fold to cover charger costs under the administration’s rules. Tesla has already scoped out premier charging locations for its proprietary network. Good luck to competitors.

New Mexico warns that “poor station maintenance can lead to stations being perpetually broken and unusable, particularly in rural or hard to access locations. If an EV charging station is built in an area without electrical capacity and infrastructure to support its use, it will be unusable until the appropriate upgrades are installed.”

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Arizona says “private businesses may build and operate a station if a grant pays for the first five years of operations and maintenance” but might abandon the project if it later proves unprofitable. Many other states echo this concern, noting that federal funds could result in stranded assets.

The administration aims to build 500,000 stations, but states will likely have to spend their own money to keep them running. Like other federal inducements, these grants may entice states to assume what could become huge financial liabilities.

Federal funds also come with many rules, including “buy America” procurement requirements, which demand that chargers consist of mostly U.S.-made components. New Jersey says these could “delay implementation by several years” since only a few manufacturers can currently meet them. New York also says it will be challenging to comply with the web of federal rules, including the National Environmental Policy Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act of 1970, and a 1960 federal law that bars charging stations in rest areas.

Oh, and labor rules. The administration requires that electrical workers who install and maintain the stations be certified by the union-backed Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Training Program. New Mexico says much of the state lacks contractors that meet this mandate, which will reduce competition and increase costs.

Technical problems abound too. Virginia says fast-charging hardware “has a short track record” and is “prone to malfunctions.” Equipment “previously installed privately in Virginia has had a high failure rate shown in user comments and reports on social media,” and “even compatibility with credit card readers has been unexpectedly complicated.”

A study this spring led by University of California researchers found that more than a quarter of public direct-current fast-charging stations in the San Francisco Bay Area were unusable. Drivers will be playing roulette every time they head to a station. If all this weren’t disconcerting enough, Arizona warns cyber vulnerabilities could compromise customer financial transactions, charging infrastructure, electric vehicles and the grid.

Politicians and auto makers racing to eliminate the internal-combustion engine are bound to crash into technological, logistic and financial realities, as Mr. Toyoda warned. The casualties will be taxpayers, but the administration doesn’t seem to care.


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105   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 10, 8:04pm  

socal2 says

I got no rebates, get no subsidies and pay some of the highest electricity rates in the country living in SoCal. Even with an EV, I use less electricity than my neighbors with pools and AC.

I pay full freight and I am still saving nearly $200/month in gas.


You're not paying full freight, as those costs prove.

You just say you are because to admit otherwise is to face the bullshit you don't want to.

Explains a lot.
106   SunnyvaleCA   2024 Jan 11, 3:34am  

ad says

Minimum wage was $1.60 an hour back in 1970. Cars were affordable relative to minimum wage. You could spend 5 years earning minimum wage to comfortably paying off the car loan for a Maverick. City/Highway mileage was 17/22 only :-/

It's unfortunate we can't get a truly cheap car these days, but even paying up front for all those modern long-term cost savings features like 50k mile tires, no-tuneup fuel injection, and 10k oil changes, a modern car will simply run (cost) circles around one from that era simply based on longevity.

5 year loan for a $2000 car with 20% down. Assuming 5% interest (extremely generous for a car loan in 1970), means you pay $30/month or 18.75 hours of work per month. But that car is unlikely to make it 5 years without major repairs.

How about today with California's minimum wage? For 18.75 hours per month, that's $16 * 18.75 = $300/month. Precisely 10x the 1970 spend. Yeah, you aren't likely to buy any brand new car for $20k, but if you extend to 7 year loan that'll get you to nearly of $27k.

So when you paid off your loan you have a 5 year old Maverick that is nearing (or passed) end-of-life or a 7 year old Toyota Corolla that'll give you less trouble in the next 7 years than the Maverick did in the first 5.

I think you should try to test drive some of those cars from the 60s and 70s. I had a friend who recently paid quite a bit of money for a well-restored Mustang V8 from that era (sadly, an automatic). He soon realized that, although our current cars are mostly soulless and have entirely too many electronic "features," they are miles easier to live with on a daily basis. He sold it pretty quickly.
107   WookieMan   2024 Jan 11, 4:21am  

socal2 says

I average 1,200 miles a month including family road trips and gas is over $4.5/gallon.

You're in CA dude. Gas isn't that much in most places. We're under $3 here because it's an election year. It's literally $2.99 and that's at the expensive gas station that is most convenient.

I can't tow with any model of Tesla. Cyber Truck is ugly as can be and has no range. I HAVE to do things. I have to drive long distances. EV's are not there yet. It works for some that are just commuting to work and the grocery store. I have to do not girly things if I'm being honest. EV's are the VW Bug of the 2020's. They're gay. It's literally a golf cart.

Your $200/mo turned into $170 savings from your own comment. Your wife's Hyundai was likely $20k less as well. That $15-20k in financing eats up any savings. And mark this comment. Your cost are going to skyrocket. Do you actually trust liberals that push EV's and this tech???? They're gonna get their money.
110   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 11, 12:12pm  

Eman says


zzyzzx says











ICEs don't catch on fire when they have no gas in them.

EVs catch on fire just sitting in scrap yards.

EVs catch on fire on ships. So bad extra insurance has to be paid when shipping them. ICEs don't have this problem.

Vast majority of ICEs that catch on fire are in accidents.
111   WookieMan   2024 Jan 11, 12:14pm  

This is similar to a model 3: https://www.toyota.com/corollahybrid/2023/

MSRP $23k for the Corolla
MSRP $36k for Tesla Model 3

Similar sized. AWD versus rear wheel on the Tesla. 50mpg. Fine you have oil changes once a quarter at $50 and you buy a K&N air filter and it's the same maintenance for the same miles you'd likely keep both cars. Not sure where you're making up the $13k. Still paying the electric and you're not going to a super charger station every time unless you don't value your time. Or you hire an electrician to install a proper charger. There goes another $2k at least.

The math doesn't add up for basically the same car. You don't need to pay $13k extra for faster 0-60 times and 20 minutes to "fuel" up on a road trip or work trip. That's kind of the definition of stupidity. Enjoy them, but the value is simply not there and no one can prove otherwise. I just picked one model. There are many others that beat the cheapest Tesla that would take 5 years at least to make up the difference in Tesla's price difference even with paying for gas. It's not even a debate.
112   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 11, 1:39pm  

WookieMan says

Still paying the electric and you're not going to a super charger station every time unless you don't value your time. Or you hire an electrician to install a proper charger. There goes another $2k at least.


And I just got a letter from PG&E showing the new rate plans based upon what I paid in electricity last year. $300 more projected for EV charging plan.
113   WookieMan   2024 Jan 11, 2:25pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

WookieMan says


Still paying the electric and you're not going to a super charger station every time unless you don't value your time. Or you hire an electrician to install a proper charger. There goes another $2k at least.


And I just got a letter from PG&E showing the new rate plans based upon what I paid in electricity last year. $300 more projected for EV charging plan.

It's coming. We don't agree on everything, but the EV owners are likely over the next 2-4 years to eat shit on rates. The infrastructure is not there and will take a decade plus out of their pocket. They don't get it. I literally just posted a Corolla Hybrid VS a Model 3. If you're cool eating $13k cash or financed at high rates, good for you. You're not getting a good deal with an EV. Even with government subs.

Gas is cheaper and EV's are essentially subsidizing ICE vehicles at this point and they think they're doing the environment a favor.. Less demand for oil makes ICE vehicle cheaper. Electric companies AND governments will charge more in the coming years. MFT's are from gas. They're gonna get their piece of the pie. It's a when, not if. I don't get the EV fan boys.
114   casandra   2024 Jan 11, 4:08pm  

I see electric vehicles as the current distraction to bilk money on something that will not replace gas vehicles until we have something that will. Possibly hydrogen. So in the meantime they want to take peoples money. Same thing as this country. We don't allow people or laws that will actually work or make a difference, only offer people ineffective options that are very weak tools at best.
115   Ceffer   2024 Jan 11, 4:32pm  

Toyota is doing an end run around the 'designed to fail Green Electric Vehicle' by investing in production lines of hydrogen vehicles. I gather hydrogen may be a technology that works, to the consternation of the energy heroin dealers.
116   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 11, 6:26pm  

WookieMan says


Less demand for oil makes ICE vehicle cheaper.


Doomberg has a 'law' on that: Hydrocarbon molecules not consumed by one group of people will only be gladly consumed by another.

Like Russian oil or 'evil fracked' shale oil from Texas banned in California (Cali refineries can't use it anyway).

Ceffer says


Toyota is doing an end run around the 'designed to fail Green Electric Vehicle' by investing in production lines of hydrogen vehicles. I gather hydrogen may be a technology that works, to the consternation of the energy heroin dealers.


https://doomberg.substack.com/p/hydrogen-bomb (that might be behind a paywall)
117   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 15, 3:07pm  

Bloomberg) -- Hertz Global Holdings Inc. plans to sell a third of its US electric vehicle fleet and reinvest in gas-powered cars due to weak demand and high repair costs for its battery-powered options.

The sales of 20,000 EVs began last month and will continue over the course of 2024, the rental giant said Thursday in a regulatory filing. Hertz will record a non-cash charge in its fourth-quarter results of about $245 million related to incremental net depreciation expense.

The dramatic about-face, after Hertz announced plans in 2021 to buy 100,000 Tesla Inc. vehicles, underscores the waning demand for all-electric cars in the US. EV sales growth slowed sharply over the course of 2023, rising just 1.3% in the final quarter as consumers were put off by high costs and interest rates.

“The elevated costs associated with EVs persisted,” Hertz Chief Executive Officer Stephen Scherr said in an interview. “Efforts to wrestle it down proved to be more challenging.”

Hertz plans to use some of the money raised by selling off EVs to buy gas-powered vehicles. “The company expects this action to better balance supply against expected demand of EVs,” it said in the filing.

The shift back to more conventional cars marks a reversal of a strategy centered on EVs, which the company hoped would fetch higher prices at the counter and hold their value.

Tesla’s price cuts raised his company’s depreciation costs, Scherr said. EVs also come with higher repair costs compared to the rest of its cars, which has hurt its bottom line and played a big role in missing third-quarter earnings estimates.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hertz-sell-20-000-evs-143449475.html

Higher repair costs? You mean like having to replace an entire $26,000 battery pack if the car gets in an accident that otherwise would be a minor fender bender?
118   socal2   2024 Jan 15, 3:40pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

Higher repair costs? You mean like having to replace an entire $26,000 battery pack if the car gets in an accident that otherwise would be a minor fender bender?


That rarely happens. At least not with Teslas.

Tesla is still a very new car company (despite the Model Y being the best selling car in the world) and there still aren't enough body shop repair places who have experience working on Teslas, so the repairs can be expensive.

Hertz paid full freight for their Teslas and didn't get any kind of volume or commercial discount. So their timing was terrible since Tesla dropped prices last year to combat the higher interest rates and competition from China leaving Hertz with lesser residual value.

Big rental car companies like Hertz don't keep cars beyond a couple years. So it was expected that some of the higher mileage Teslas would be turned over by now.

This whole story is a nothing burger for Tesla. Tesla still can't build cars fast enough to meet their astronomical demand.
119   GNL   2024 Jan 15, 4:38pm  

SunnyvaleCA says


I think you should try to test drive some of those cars from the 60s and 70s. I had a friend who recently paid quite a bit of money for a well-restored Mustang V8 from that era (sadly, an automatic). He soon realized that, although our current cars are mostly soulless and have entirely too many electronic "features," they are miles easier to live with on a daily basis. He sold it pretty quickly.

The 2 most popular types of old classic cars are 1. Pure original and for investment only and 2. Restomods. Restomods are badass. This is where an old vehicle is modernized and are a dream to drive. I'm a Restomod guy myself.



Believe me, this car is as much fun to drive as any new corvette AND you'd get more admirers.
120   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 15, 4:45pm  

socal2 says

That rarely happens. At least not with Teslas.


80% of Hertz' EV fleet they are complaining about the repairs being costly are Teslas.

socal2 says

This whole story is a nothing burger for Tesla. Tesla still can't build cars fast enough to meet their astronomical demand.


And yet Hertz is taking a bath in selling these off.
121   socal2   2024 Jan 15, 5:17pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

80% of Hertz' EV fleet they are complaining about the repairs being costly are Teslas.


But it has nothing to do with the battery as you were alluding to.UkraineIsFucked says


And yet Hertz is taking a bath in selling these off.


Yeah - because Tesla is pumping out their brand new and improved Model 3 Highland versions and the Model Y's are still stupid cheap with the government incentives.

Who wants to buy a beat-up rental Model 3 when you can get a brand new Tesla for a few thousand more?
122   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 15, 5:31pm  

socal2 says

But it has nothing to do with the battery as you were alluding to.


How do you know?

socal2 says

Who wants to buy a beat-up rental Model 3 when you can get a brand new Tesla for a few thousand more?


Used prices are a lot cheaper now.

Doesn't change the fact that EVs are shit.
123   Eman   2024 Jan 15, 6:06pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

Doesn't change the fact that EVs are shit.


Honest question. Have you ever owned an EV? If yes, which one(s) were they? When you say EVs are 💩. Is that based on your personal experience?
124   socal2   2024 Jan 15, 6:10pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

How do you know?


Because our moron media would be screaming it to the rooftops if there was any hint of Tesla battery failures.
125   socal2   2024 Jan 15, 6:12pm  

Eman says

Honest question. Have you ever owned an EV? If yes, which one(s) were they? When you say EVs are 💩. Is that based on your personal experience?


They've driven golf carts - so they know what it is all about!

Toyota guy at the dealership says Tesla is just a fancy golf cart. No difference!
126   Eman   2024 Jan 15, 6:37pm  

socal2 says

Eman says


Honest question. Have you ever owned an EV? If yes, which one(s) were they? When you say EVs are 💩. Is that based on your personal experience?


They've driven golf carts - so they know what it is all about!

Toyota guy at the dealership says Tesla is just a fancy golf cart. No difference!

It’s interesting people call it a glorified track mode while the car has drift and track modes, and can also do donuts. It can hang with cars in the $300-$500k range.

I got a Model 3 performance loaner for a week and felt in love with it. At the same time, I no longer enjoy sitting in a low car. I think a MYP is a good compromise, but it wouldn’t be as fun to drive compared to the M3P. I’ve also gotten the MYP loaner for a couple days so I know how it rides.

I’ll wait for the Highland version though. With our low tax bracket, we’ll also qualify for the $7.5k tax credit.
128   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 15, 10:18pm  

socal2 says

Because our moron media would be screaming it to the rooftops if there was any hint of Tesla battery failures.


Can you stay in context? Are you even capable of that?
129   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 15, 10:20pm  

Eman says

Honest question. Have you ever owned an EV? If yes, which one(s) were they? When you say EVs are 💩. Is that based on your personal experience?


It's based on market data. Personal experience is only something EV Fluffers resort to.
130   zzyzzx   2024 Jan 16, 7:14am  

Eman says

UkraineIsFucked says


Doesn't change the fact that EVs are shit.


Honest question. Have you ever owned an EV? If yes, which one(s) were they? When you say EVs are 💩. Is that based on your personal experience?


Evidence suggests that people buying EV's today are early adopters and repairability stinks. EV's need batteries that aren't proprietary and DIY replaceable, and come in standard sizes like regular car batteries are now.
131   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 7:20am  

zzyzzx says


EV's need batteries that aren't proprietary and DIY replaceable, an


They need battery packs that aren't comprised of 2,000 distinct parts nor mineral content we can't mine enough of.

The EV Fluffers here don't seem to grasp that the rest of us are looking towards the future and scalability. They think things will scale as they have done so far.

The Tesla Sub-fluffers are even worse. 80% of EVs in the world are made in China. With cobalt. Yet Tesla fluffers see the EV world as being Tesla!
132   Eman   2024 Jan 16, 7:35am  

Misc says

Sure they work fine in Cali, but don't try that shit where it gets cold.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/chicago-area-tesla-charging-stations-lined-with-dead-cars-in-freezing-cold-a-bunch-of-dead-robots-out-here/ar-AA1n1Q5i?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=d0d06ef048f24c9284b3d7922557d2c4&ei=60

Thankfully I don’t live in the cold climate. However, a bunch of guys have been doing experiments and share their results. Very interesting. This guy is from Alberta, Canada where it’s even colder than Chicago.

https://x.com/brucethemodel3/status/1746903381757833696?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

This guy lives in Chicago.

https://x.com/thejefflutz/status/1747120788983980205?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q
133   Eman   2024 Jan 16, 7:35am  

UkraineIsFucked says

Eman says


Honest question. Have you ever owned an EV? If yes, which one(s) were they? When you say EVs are 💩. Is that based on your personal experience?


It's based on market data. Personal experience is only something EV Fluffers resort to.

Can you share the data please? Thanks.
134   Eman   2024 Jan 16, 7:40am  

UkraineIsFucked says

zzyzzx says



EV's need batteries that aren't proprietary and DIY replaceable, an


They need battery packs that aren't comprised of 2,000 distinct parts nor mineral content we can't mine enough of.

The EV Fluffers here don't seem to grasp that the rest of us are looking towards the future and scalability. They think things will scale as they have done so far.

The Tesla Sub-fluffers are even worse. 80% of EVs in the world are made in China. With cobalt. Yet Tesla fluffers see the EV world as being Tesla!

Our point is if anyone is going to buy an EV, buy a Tesla, not other brands, as the company is way ahead of the competitions when it comes to battery and technology. People buy other brands, then whine and bitch about it. People want to look “different” and pay the price. Then give all EVs a bad rep.
135   socal2   2024 Jan 16, 8:06am  

UkraineIsFucked says

It's based on market data. Personal experience is only something EV Fluffers resort to.


Ha ha!

"I don't need to use my own personal experience. Jim Cramer from CNBC told me....."
136   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 8:34am  

socal2 says

Ha ha!

"I don't need to use my own personal experience. Jim Cramer from CNBC told me....


Tesla Fluffer 'reasoning' ^^^^

Thanks for proving my point.
137   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 8:35am  

Eman says


Our point is if anyone is going to buy an EV, buy a Tesla,


Tesla Fluffing Example #2.

Herst is taking a bath because of the Teslas in their EV fleet. Didn't you even READ that article?

Oh, and the scaling problems with the industry don't magically exclude Tesla. But hey! Tesla Fluffers are gonna fluff. They can't admit they bought into the wrong side of history.
138   socal2   2024 Jan 16, 8:55am  

Ha ha! Wrong side of history? Tesla can't scale?

I am sure all the horse carriage companies were saying the same thing about Ford.

The Tesla Model Y is the best selling car in the entire freaking world. Tesla managed this despite spending 0 on advertising or promotions and suffering all the retarded and Leftists attacks on Elon and Tesla.

Tesla is also making industry record profit margins on every car they make even before government incentives. All the while the other auto OEM's are cratering and burdened with decades of union pension liabilities and outdated factories pumping out crappy ICE cars fewer people want.
140   Eman   2024 Jan 16, 9:02am  

UkraineIsFucked says

Eman says



Our point is if anyone is going to buy an EV, buy a Tesla,


Tesla Fluffing Example #2.

Herst is taking a bath because of the Teslas in their EV fleet. Didn't you even READ that article?

Oh, and the scaling problems with the industry don't magically exclude Tesla. But hey! Tesla Fluffers are gonna fluff. They can't admit they bought into the wrong side of history.

It seems like you have never owned a Tesla, or even an EV for that matter. The issue with Hertz taking a loss is not what you understand it to be. It’s alright. Time to move on.
141   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 16, 9:32am  

Eman says


seems like you have never owned a Tesla, or even an EV for that matter. The issue with Hertz taking a loss is not what you understand it to be. It’s alright. Time to move on.


Tesla Fluffer Example #3. Like all the others, it is all about justifying your Tesla ownership. You can't argue on the facts/data. This one is ad hominem, too.

Wow. You make this too easy.

What amazes me Eman is how you tie your rep to socal2's. Talk about cutting off your own (Tesla tattooed, I am sure) street cred balls. << now THAT is how you deliver an ad hominem.
142   socal2   2024 Jan 16, 10:41am  

UkraineIsFucked says

You can't argue on the facts/data.


Let us know when you provide some "facts/data". Wookieman at least tries to provide his anecdotal experiences.

I (nor Eman?) are advocating for forced government adoption of EV's or even incentives. However, we will gladly take whatever incentive the Feds or California throws at us..........as I have personally paid enough State Income Tax to last a lifetime for most people.

What we are arguing is that Tesla is a superior product and continues to be one of the most profitable and fastest growing car companies in the world.

Enjoy driving your primitive ICE cars, owning a Tesla allows me to enjoy the benefits of driving a luxury sports car like a Porsche at half the price!
144   AD   2024 Jan 16, 11:11am  

also electric vehicle batteries work best between 50 degrees and 110 degrees Fahrenheit

because of electrochemistry principles, battery efficiency drops off a lot below 38 degrees when i was on the solar electric vehicle team we would heat the batteries to around 90 degrees to ensure peak performance
.



.

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