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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ


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2022 Dec 26, 9:49am   41,080 views  757 comments

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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ

Allysia FinleyDec. 25, 2022 6:20 pm ET

Toyota’s CEO delivers a timely warning, and many states echo it.

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda recently caused the climate lobby to blow a fuse by speaking a truth about battery electric vehicles that his fellow auto executives dare not. “Just like the fully autonomous cars that we were all supposed to be driving by now,” Mr. Toyoda said in Thailand, “I think BEVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe.” He added that a “silent majority” in the auto industry share his view, “but they think it’s the trend, so they can’t speak out loudly.”
The Biden administration seems to believe that millions of Americans will rush out to buy electric vehicles if only the government throws enough subsidies at them. Last year’s infrastructure bill included $7.5 billion in grants for states to expand their charging networks. But it’s a problem when even the states are warning the administration that electric vehicles aren’t ready to go mainstream.

Maine notes in a plan submitted to the Federal Highway Administration this summer that “cold temperatures will remain a top challenge” for adoption, since “cold weather reduces EV range and increases charging times.” When temperatures drop to 5 degrees Fahrenheit, the cars achieve only 54% of their quoted range. A vehicle that’s supposed to be able to go 250 miles between charges will make it only 135 miles on average. At 32 degrees—a typical winter day in much of the country—a Tesla Model 3 that in ideal conditions can go 282 miles between charges will make it only 173 miles.
Imagine if the 100 million Americans who took to the road over the holidays were driving electric cars. How many would have been stranded as temperatures plunged? There wouldn’t be enough tow trucks—or emergency medics—for people freezing in their cars.
The Transportation Department is requiring states to build charging stations every 50 miles along interstate highways and within a mile of off-ramps to reduce the likelihood of these scenarios. But most state electrical grids aren’t built to handle this many charging stations and will thus require expensive upgrades. Illinois, for one, warns of “challenges related to sufficient electric grid capacity, particularly in rural areas of the state.”

Charging stations in rural areas with little traffic are also unlikely to be profitable and could become “stranded assets,” as many states warn. Wyoming says out-of-state traffic from non-Tesla electric vehicles would have to increase 100-fold to cover charger costs under the administration’s rules. Tesla has already scoped out premier charging locations for its proprietary network. Good luck to competitors.

New Mexico warns that “poor station maintenance can lead to stations being perpetually broken and unusable, particularly in rural or hard to access locations. If an EV charging station is built in an area without electrical capacity and infrastructure to support its use, it will be unusable until the appropriate upgrades are installed.”

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Arizona says “private businesses may build and operate a station if a grant pays for the first five years of operations and maintenance” but might abandon the project if it later proves unprofitable. Many other states echo this concern, noting that federal funds could result in stranded assets.

The administration aims to build 500,000 stations, but states will likely have to spend their own money to keep them running. Like other federal inducements, these grants may entice states to assume what could become huge financial liabilities.

Federal funds also come with many rules, including “buy America” procurement requirements, which demand that chargers consist of mostly U.S.-made components. New Jersey says these could “delay implementation by several years” since only a few manufacturers can currently meet them. New York also says it will be challenging to comply with the web of federal rules, including the National Environmental Policy Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act of 1970, and a 1960 federal law that bars charging stations in rest areas.

Oh, and labor rules. The administration requires that electrical workers who install and maintain the stations be certified by the union-backed Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Training Program. New Mexico says much of the state lacks contractors that meet this mandate, which will reduce competition and increase costs.

Technical problems abound too. Virginia says fast-charging hardware “has a short track record” and is “prone to malfunctions.” Equipment “previously installed privately in Virginia has had a high failure rate shown in user comments and reports on social media,” and “even compatibility with credit card readers has been unexpectedly complicated.”

A study this spring led by University of California researchers found that more than a quarter of public direct-current fast-charging stations in the San Francisco Bay Area were unusable. Drivers will be playing roulette every time they head to a station. If all this weren’t disconcerting enough, Arizona warns cyber vulnerabilities could compromise customer financial transactions, charging infrastructure, electric vehicles and the grid.

Politicians and auto makers racing to eliminate the internal-combustion engine are bound to crash into technological, logistic and financial realities, as Mr. Toyoda warned. The casualties will be taxpayers, but the administration doesn’t seem to care.


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433   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 7:06am  

I used to drive a 2015 GMC Yukon XL (Suburban size) V8 5.3L IIRC. My wife used to drive a 2017 Acura MDX. I also used to drive a 1999 F-150 truck too. We know how SUVs drive. There’s no $2k/year max worst case for a V-8 SUV in California. Ask anyone who lives in CA and drives just 15k miles/year.

Of course, you know it all and you know it best even though you don’t live here.
434   WookieMan   2024 Feb 23, 7:27am  

Eman says

Ask anyone who lives in CA and drives just 15k miles/year.

Of course, you know it all and you know it best even though you don’t live here.

15k miles is above average for any cars/drivers. I know gas prices in CA. I've rented many a cars out there. My kid puked in one. I know gas prices are high.

The price gap between a hybrid and full EV is $20k on almost any model. Fine, be conservative, 5-7 years to pay off the MSRP on a new vehicle. You're not saving money. And again, you don't get it. Fine you have free super charging. That will stay the same. Your registration fees and electric rates will go through the roof. Doesn't matter if you charge at a super charger.

Do some work and look up CA MTF funds and EV's. https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/12/gas-tax-revenue-drop-climate/

Here I did it for you. Where the fuck does that money come from? I know what I'm talking about. The money has to come from somewhere so you can drive your electric car on the road. YOU will be paying for it. I don't think anyone here knows who I am beside Patrick knowing my first name. You will 100% be paying more for cars, electric and registration in the next 2 years. I'm not making this up. Doesn't matter state. Don't believe me. Call me out in 2 years.
435   GNL   2024 Feb 23, 7:38am  

IMO, unless EVs improve to 10 minutes to fully charge and they can sell a version for under $20k they will never be as popular (that doesn't mean people are forced to purchase them because .gov regulated ICE cars out of the market) as ICE cars. I believe we are getting more and more to a place where people simply are struggling to live. I admit I do not have graphs or proof to share. Only my observations of the people in my circle which includes professionals, family and friends.
436   WookieMan   2024 Feb 23, 8:22am  

GNL says

I admit I do not have graphs or proof to share. Only my observations of the people in my circle which includes professionals, family and friends.

You witness it. More valuable than people justifying an over priced car. We all can argue all day but it is markets. EV's are reaching saturation. Don't save you any money. Cost you even more if you put panels on your house that won't work in 6 years. Buy a hybrid. I've driven everything on the road with rentals and family cars. EV's are NOT the future.

"Green" tech is useful for powering a pool pump. Your entire house if you have a decent one cannot be powered by "green" tech. This has been known for a while. It's supplemental power. You gotta drop $10-20k on a battery pack. It would take a decade to pay that off and then I'd have to replace it.

Markets and tech are built for cycles. There's no reason to have something last more than 5-8 years. You have to sell more. If it doesn't break, you have no sales. Thee are smarter people than any of us. We'd be billionaires if we knew what we were doing.
437   GNL   2024 Feb 23, 8:32am  

WookieMan says

Buy a hybrid. I've driven everything on the road with rentals and family cars. EV's are NOT the future.

I agree and decided a while back that my wife's next car is either a used 4-door Lexus sedan or a Toyota Camry hybrid. Probably the same for me and my next car. Every mechanic I've ever spoken to says buy a Lexus. If a Lexus is out of your price range, buy a Toyota. Yes, I know they are the same company but most mechanics I've spoken to say the Lexus is better made mechanically.
438   GNL   2024 Feb 23, 8:34am  

The only fun car I would buy is a new corvette or a 60s restomod Camaro.
439   HeadSet   2024 Feb 23, 10:42am  

WookieMan says

Your entire house if you have a decent one cannot be powered by "green" tech.

I have toured several houses around here that use solar panels to go "net zero." That is, they feed more into Dominion Power than they take out and thus have no electric bill. Not "off grid" but no need for a battery. The owners did have efficient appliances (including A/C) and were more conscious about leaving lights on. Some were normal suburban two-story homes, while a couple were built from the ground up to be green. From what I understand, the solar panels last about 20 years with a payback of about 10 years.
440   HeadSet   2024 Feb 23, 10:53am  

GNL says


The only fun car I would buy is a new corvette

I know a guy who agrees with you. He trades in his Corvette every year for a new one, but lives in a modest home in a small Nebraska town. The only 2023 'vette I know that is parked in a carport.



This guy is a retired surgeon who has $millions of Berkshire Hathaway stock but prefers to live in the low-end home he inherited from his parents. His only extravagance is this 'vette hobby.
441   WookieMan   2024 Feb 23, 10:55am  

HeadSet says

I have toured several houses around here that use solar panels to go "net zero."

It's generally a lie unless you saw the bills. We did it with our LEED certified homes. Yes I lied. Most builders and solar installers are absolute liars. Can't recall where you are, but I believe you're in an area that is too far North for solar to be worth it.

It's a scam to use government subsidies to make sales. For $20k you might cut your bill in half AND you still finance regardless if it's zero down. People are dumb. I hope you didn't pull the trigger... We don't have the physical resources for solar and EV's to be the future. And the government will get their money. I know the people that are coming after green tech. We all know carbon emissions are bulls shit metrics. EV's won't save the planet, if anything they're making it worse.
442   socal2   2024 Feb 23, 11:26am  

GNL says

WookieMan says

Buy a hybrid. I've driven everything on the road with rentals and family cars. EV's are NOT the future.

I agree and decided a while back that my wife's next car is either a used 4-door Lexus sedan or a Toyota Camry hybrid.


Hybrids are retarded. There is this bumper sticker on a car in my neighborhood that says: "Cool Prius - said No-one"

Hybrids have twice the complexity of ICE and pure EV's. Hybrids still have transmissions, ICE engines, need oil changes as well as the complexity of electric motors and batteries to maintain. Hybrids don't have the thrill and power of a pure EV motor and are basically compliance cars for environmentalists who want to think they are "green" but hate Elon Musk or buying American made cars.

The standard range Tesla meets the driving needs of over 90% of US commuters who can charge in their garage.

The OEM's who are going the Hybrid route are doing it out of necessity since they can't compete with Tesla who wisely invested in battery technology and manufacturing 10 years before everyone else - dramatically bringing the price of batteries down.


443   WookieMan   2024 Feb 23, 11:42am  

At no point has my argument even been addressed. EV's are more expensive and not feasible even if you don't pay the electric. You over paid $20-50k more for a car than you needed do. I have no dick issues and have no intention of driving quick or fast. There's no need. You'll kill someone. And you likely will.

Just own it's status and speed. No different than a Ferrari. I don't get the back and forth about this. When Tesla goes under and no one can service your car enjoy that shit show of fuck. Might be lucky if it is paid off by then... Probably not though.
444   richwicks   2024 Feb 23, 11:45am  

The only thing that an EV has over a conventional car, is that it has better acceleration. Other than that, they pollute as much if not more, they are more expensive, they have a hard limit on lifetime because the batteries degrade over time, they have limited range, there's limited infrastructure for them, if they are in a minor accident they often have to be totaled because there's no way to know if the battery is damaged or not, a damaged battery can create an uncontrollable fire that cannot be extinguished because it doesn't depend on oxygen for the reaction, and they are more expensive, and finally they cut through guard rails like a knife through butter because of their weight:


original link

But they do have better acceleration.

When I was a kid, I didn't understand the disdain people had for "nerds" that were really interested in science and future technology. Now that I'm an adult engineer, I understand it completely, although I don't think people can explain their disdain, but they have this visceral gut feel that "this isn't good".
445   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 Feb 23, 11:47am  

If my wife lets me (:>)), I am going to buy a manual transmission sports car. I know the new Corvette Stingray is a beauty to behold, but starting at $80k, I dunno. I was looking into a Camaro SS. Last year to get a new one. Bimmers are nice, Toyota Supra, Acura Integra, etc, can’t argue with them, but would like to buy American. Any ideas?
446   socal2   2024 Feb 23, 12:29pm  

WookieMan says

At no point has my argument even been addressed. EV's are more expensive and not feasible even if you don't pay the electric


It has been addressed and answered several times. You keep comparing a Tesla to a Toyota Corolla or other entry level sedan.

You need to compare a Tesla at least to a mid- level BMW or base model Porsche for a truly apples to apples comparison. Tesla's are not only cheaper to purchase than comparable BMW's and Porsches, they cost far less to operate in terms of fuel and maintenance.
447   GNL   2024 Feb 23, 12:53pm  

China stole the tech already. Introducing the new and improved ICE version. LOL


448   GNL   2024 Feb 23, 12:58pm  

HeadSet says

GNL says



The only fun car I would buy is a new corvette

I know a guy who agrees with you. He trades in his Corvette every year for a new one, but lives in a modest home in a small Nebraska town. The only 2023 'vette I know that is parked in a carport.



This guy is a retired surgeon who has $millions of Berkshire Hathaway stock but prefers to live in the low-end home he inherited from his parents. His only extravagance is this 'vette hobby.

Look at this bad boy. Joe Rogan's car.


449   Misc   2024 Feb 23, 1:01pm  

About 50% of the EVs sold are in California.

That means that for the other 49 states, on average they have 1% of the EV sales each.

They ain't gonna make it in the rest of the country. You can't market them.
450   GNL   2024 Feb 23, 1:11pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

If my wife lets me (:>)), I am going to buy a manual transmission sports car. I know the new Corvette Stingray is a beauty to behold, but starting at $80k, I dunno. I was looking into a Camaro SS. Last year to get a new one. Bimmers are nice, Toyota Supra, Acura Integra, etc, can’t argue with them, but would like to buy American. Any ideas?

If I were you, I'd get a car like this Camaro. They are every bit as fun to drive, will hold its value and no one else has one.


451   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 2:20pm  

HeadSet says

WookieMan says


Your entire house if you have a decent one cannot be powered by "green" tech.

I have toured several houses around here that use solar panels to go "net zero." That is, they feed more into Dominion Power than they take out and thus have no electric bill. Not "off grid" but no need for a battery. The owners did have efficient appliances (including A/C) and were more conscious about leaving lights on. Some were normal suburban two-story homes, while a couple were built from the ground up to be green. From what I understand, the solar panels last about 20 years with a payback of about 10 years.

The warranty on old solars was 10 years. They’re 25 years warranty now on labor and parts with 92% efficiency at the end of 25 years.

Hircus shared his analysis, and the payback is about 8-9 years so you’re spot on.
452   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 2:26pm  

WookieMan says

HeadSet says


I have toured several houses around here that use solar panels to go "net zero."

It's generally a lie unless you saw the bills. We did it with our LEED certified homes. Yes I lied. Most builders and solar installers are absolute liars. Can't recall where you are, but I believe you're in an area that is too far North for solar to be worth it.

It's a scam to use government subsidies to make sales. For $20k you might cut your bill in half AND you still finance regardless if it's zero down. People are dumb. I hope you didn't pull the trigger... We don't have the physical resources for solar and EV's to be the future. And the government will get their money. I know the people that are coming after green tech. We all know carbon emissions are bulls shit metrics. EV's won't save the planet, if anything they're making it worse.

Everyone is a liar, be it realtors, builders or solar installers, including Wookie. He admitted it here folks.

People are dumb. Wookie, who is a liar, but he knows it all. 🤦‍♂️
453   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 2:31pm  

HeadSet says

GNL says



The only fun car I would buy is a new corvette

I know a guy who agrees with you. He trades in his Corvette every year for a new one, but lives in a modest home in a small Nebraska town. The only 2023 'vette I know that is parked in a carport.



This guy is a retired surgeon who has $millions of Berkshire Hathaway stock but prefers to live in the low-end home he inherited from his parents. His only extravagance is this 'vette hobby.

I’ve always wanted a Corvette, but wife said it’s not practical as it’s a 2 seater. Can’t fit the family in it. Then I discovered Tesla, and it was over since. I’m sure the Corvette would likely put a smile on my face if I drove it to “work” everyday. The Tesla does the same job for me since. Money can buy happiness…
454   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 2:46pm  

WookieMan says

At no point has my argument even been addressed. EV's are more expensive and not feasible even if you don't pay the electric. You over paid $20-50k more for a car than you needed do. I have no dick issues and have no intention of driving quick or fast. There's no need. You'll kill someone. And you likely will.

Just own it's status and speed. No different than a Ferrari. I don't get the back and forth about this. When Tesla goes under and no one can service your car enjoy that shit show of fuck. Might be lucky if it is paid off by then... Probably not though.

$20k-$50k more expensive than what? An equivalent car with an equivalent performance?

It’s true you have no dick in this issue. You have never owned a Tesla to know. People who own Rivian say the same thing. The car put a smile on their face every time they drive it. How much does that worth?

A Ferrari or a Lambo is probably a status. Tesla is no status where we live. They’re everywhere on the road. There are so many Tesla that people buy other inferior EVs for the same money, or god forbid even more money, so they can be “different”.

At this point, it doesn’t look like Tesla will go under. Lucid is highly likely. Rivian is a decent candidate to go under too. I pray they make it though. People love their Rivian. They love it so much that makes me consider buying one for my next EV.
455   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 2:51pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

If my wife lets me (:>)), I am going to buy a manual transmission sports car. I know the new Corvette Stingray is a beauty to behold, but starting at $80k, I dunno. I was looking into a Camaro SS. Last year to get a new one. Bimmers are nice, Toyota Supra, Acura Integra, etc, can’t argue with them, but would like to buy American. Any ideas?

I believe the new Corvette Stingray has a hybrid that can hit 0-60 in 2.4sec. Bimmer is a no go for me. I love both the Supra and Integra. I’ve been trying to convince my BIL to give up his model Y performance to me and buy a Supra or Integra. He’s retiring in a few years so it’s time to live it up. 🤣
457   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 3:04pm  

Just share a new idea to Patnetters in the hope of saving some people money on their car insurance.



https://x.com/mattwallace1701/status/1761067770563936439?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q
458   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 Feb 23, 3:19pm  

Eman says

Integra.

I think the Integra is FWD only. A little leary of oversteer if so. RWD or AWD is preferable. I do see quite a lot of tricked out Honda Civics zipping around where I live. I think that is an affordable sports car for the 20 somethings.
459   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 3:32pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Eman says


Integra.

I think the Integra is FWD only. A little leary of oversteer if so. RWD or AWD is preferable. I do see quite a lot of tricked out Honda Civics zipping around where I live. I think that is an affordable sports car for the 20 somethings.

I only wish I could afford a sports car like one of these in my 20’s. My wife (GF then) had a 1991 Acura Legend coup V6. I loved that car.

I installed flowmaster with dual exhausts for my F-150 when I first got it. No more into loud car noises. 😅

If I ever get a sports car, it will be the new model 3 performance. It’s not a sports car per se, but it’s compact and can zip around pretty fast. Tesla offers free test drive. 😂
460   GNL   2024 Feb 23, 3:34pm  

Eman says

Just share a new idea to Patnetters in the hope of saving some people money on their car insurance.



https://x.com/mattwallace1701/status/1761067770563936439?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

You already know the answer...America is a shit show.
461   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 3:34pm  

Like Business Insider, Edmunds got caught with bad journalism. MSM knows anything relates to Tesla and/ot Elon will generate tons of clicks. Was it an honest mistake, or was it a click bait? 🤷‍♂️

https://x.com/niccruzpatane/status/1761043723545153583?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q
462   GNL   2024 Feb 23, 3:35pm  

The opposite of fugly...


463   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 3:40pm  

GNL says

Eman says


Just share a new idea to Patnetters in the hope of saving some people money on their car insurance.



https://x.com/mattwallace1701/status/1761067770563936439?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

You already know the answer...America is a shit show.

Like I said before, it’s a great community on X. People share what works and what doesn’t. We don’t have an expert, who knows everything, like someone on Patnet.

I thought the Cybertruck was fugly when it was revealed in Nov 2019 too, but some people really love it including celebrities. Cyber is the keyword for why it looks the way it looks IMO. The look has grown on me since, but I haven’t made the decision if I’m going to order one.
464   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 3:40pm  

GNL says

The opposite of fugly...




It’s a beautiful Mustang. Reminds me of gone in 60 seconds.
465   socal2   2024 Feb 23, 3:53pm  

Eman says

The car put a smile on their face every time they drive it. How much does that worth?


Absolutely this.
466   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 23, 3:59pm  

richwicks says

When I was a kid, I didn't understand the disdain people had for "nerds" that were really interested in science and future technology. Now that I'm an adult engineer, I understand it completely, although I don't think people can explain their disdain, but they have this visceral gut feel that "this isn't good".

What do you think about this NYSE listed electric plane company? A relative of mine is touting their investment in it.

https://www.jobyaviation.com/
467   socal2   2024 Feb 23, 4:00pm  

Misc says

That means that for the other 49 states, on average they have 1% of the EV sales each.


MASSIVE sales potential for Tesla. Nothing but clear skies ahead.
469   GNL   2024 Feb 23, 7:13pm  

Eman says

Like I said before, it’s a great community on X. People share what works and what doesn’t.

Can you clarify please? Are you actually advising people to claim they're anything other than male or female? If so, you're putting $$ before reality, morality, truth, nature and last, but most certainly the most important, GOD.
470   richwicks   2024 Feb 23, 7:52pm  

GNL says

Eman says


Like I said before, it’s a great community on X. People share what works and what doesn’t.

Can you clarify please? Are you actually advising people to claim they're anything other than male or female? If so, you're putting $$ before reality, morality, truth, nature and last, but most certainly the most important, GOD.


Yes, just like every government and corporation does. It's not like you're going to overthrow the government though or boycott the companies.
471   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 9:40pm  

GNL says

Eman says


Like I said before, it’s a great community on X. People share what works and what doesn’t.

Can you clarify please? Are you actually advising people to claim they're anything other than male or female? If so, you're putting $$ before reality, morality, truth, nature and last, but most certainly the most important, GOD.

I guess you’re being sarcastic? In case you’re not, it’s a community that shares experiences on EVs and solar. From reading these and personal experience, I know my next EV purchase will either be a SUV or a truck. It will be a Tesla or a Rivian. Rivian is coming out with a R2 compact SUV version for $45-50k….likely to compete with the model Y. Given Rivian can use Tesla superchargers starting 2025, this makes it a very viable candidate. The biggest hang up is whether the company will survive in the next couple years. The CEO said the company will become profitable in Q4. If they do, it’s a go for me. I’m rooting for them.
472   Eman   2024 Feb 23, 9:46pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says







When I first came to the US, I loved the Camaro Iroc Z. The seller wanted $8k for a slight used, low mileage, in mint condition car. I was a HS kid with no money. Happened to see another guy driving a Camaro with the license plate frame “Pony Killer”. 🤣

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