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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ


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2022 Dec 26, 9:49am   52,124 views  778 comments

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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ

Allysia FinleyDec. 25, 2022 6:20 pm ET

Toyota’s CEO delivers a timely warning, and many states echo it.

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda recently caused the climate lobby to blow a fuse by speaking a truth about battery electric vehicles that his fellow auto executives dare not. “Just like the fully autonomous cars that we were all supposed to be driving by now,” Mr. Toyoda said in Thailand, “I think BEVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe.” He added that a “silent majority” in the auto industry share his view, “but they think it’s the trend, so they can’t speak out loudly.”
The Biden administration seems to believe that millions of Americans will rush out to buy electric vehicles if only the government throws enough subsidies at them. Last year’s infrastructure bill included $7.5 billion in grants for states to expand their charging networks. But it’s a problem when even the states are warning the administration that electric vehicles aren’t ready to go mainstream.

Maine notes in a plan submitted to the Federal Highway Administration this summer that “cold temperatures will remain a top challenge” for adoption, since “cold weather reduces EV range and increases charging times.” When temperatures drop to 5 degrees Fahrenheit, the cars achieve only 54% of their quoted range. A vehicle that’s supposed to be able to go 250 miles between charges will make it only 135 miles on average. At 32 degrees—a typical winter day in much of the country—a Tesla Model 3 that in ideal conditions can go 282 miles between charges will make it only 173 miles.
Imagine if the 100 million Americans who took to the road over the holidays were driving electric cars. How many would have been stranded as temperatures plunged? There wouldn’t be enough tow trucks—or emergency medics—for people freezing in their cars.
The Transportation Department is requiring states to build charging stations every 50 miles along interstate highways and within a mile of off-ramps to reduce the likelihood of these scenarios. But most state electrical grids aren’t built to handle this many charging stations and will thus require expensive upgrades. Illinois, for one, warns of “challenges related to sufficient electric grid capacity, particularly in rural areas of the state.”

Charging stations in rural areas with little traffic are also unlikely to be profitable and could become “stranded assets,” as many states warn. Wyoming says out-of-state traffic from non-Tesla electric vehicles would have to increase 100-fold to cover charger costs under the administration’s rules. Tesla has already scoped out premier charging locations for its proprietary network. Good luck to competitors.

New Mexico warns that “poor station maintenance can lead to stations being perpetually broken and unusable, particularly in rural or hard to access locations. If an EV charging station is built in an area without electrical capacity and infrastructure to support its use, it will be unusable until the appropriate upgrades are installed.”

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Arizona says “private businesses may build and operate a station if a grant pays for the first five years of operations and maintenance” but might abandon the project if it later proves unprofitable. Many other states echo this concern, noting that federal funds could result in stranded assets.

The administration aims to build 500,000 stations, but states will likely have to spend their own money to keep them running. Like other federal inducements, these grants may entice states to assume what could become huge financial liabilities.

Federal funds also come with many rules, including “buy America” procurement requirements, which demand that chargers consist of mostly U.S.-made components. New Jersey says these could “delay implementation by several years” since only a few manufacturers can currently meet them. New York also says it will be challenging to comply with the web of federal rules, including the National Environmental Policy Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act of 1970, and a 1960 federal law that bars charging stations in rest areas.

Oh, and labor rules. The administration requires that electrical workers who install and maintain the stations be certified by the union-backed Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Training Program. New Mexico says much of the state lacks contractors that meet this mandate, which will reduce competition and increase costs.

Technical problems abound too. Virginia says fast-charging hardware “has a short track record” and is “prone to malfunctions.” Equipment “previously installed privately in Virginia has had a high failure rate shown in user comments and reports on social media,” and “even compatibility with credit card readers has been unexpectedly complicated.”

A study this spring led by University of California researchers found that more than a quarter of public direct-current fast-charging stations in the San Francisco Bay Area were unusable. Drivers will be playing roulette every time they head to a station. If all this weren’t disconcerting enough, Arizona warns cyber vulnerabilities could compromise customer financial transactions, charging infrastructure, electric vehicles and the grid.

Politicians and auto makers racing to eliminate the internal-combustion engine are bound to crash into technological, logistic and financial realities, as Mr. Toyoda warned. The casualties will be taxpayers, but the administration doesn’t seem to care.


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48   HeadSet   2023 Jul 15, 9:01pm  

Booger says

Gas Car Cancellation Is Intended to End Private Transport

I called that long ago. Private cars will be for the very rich and the politicians as the rest of us will be on shared right style buses and vans. Also, I notice we do not hear much anymore about self-drive and aerial taxis.
49   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Jul 15, 9:25pm  

HeadSet says

Patrick says






Well, i hear there are still 20,000 Model A Fords still on the road.


you can’t. government mandates a lot of it
50   Patrick   2023 Aug 14, 12:43pm  

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/indigenous-american-giving-monday/comment/22337511



tritorch
Writes Out Here On the Perimeter
7 hrs ago
Regarding E-Cars, here is why they want everyone in one:

Electric cars have kill switches and real time tracking of everything you do in them and they record everywhere you go. They can also be hijacked remotely by a lender or government, and programmed to keep you within your fifteen minute city.

Want to drive your car today? I'm sorry your social credit score isn't high enough, your carbon footprint has exceeded your daily limit, and your vaccination status is not up to date. Check back next week.
51   Eric Holder   2023 Aug 14, 12:56pm  

Patrick says

Electric cars have kill switches and real time tracking of everything you do in them and they record everywhere you go


No need for it to be electric for all that crap to be in it.
52   Eric Holder   2023 Aug 14, 1:00pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

HeadSet says


Patrick says







Well, i hear there are still 20,000 Model A Fords still on the road.



you can’t. government mandates a lot of it


You can build a Model A from spare parts (all of which are readily avaiable) as an individual and register it as a kit car even in CA.
53   Patrick   2023 Aug 14, 1:01pm  

True. I've read that most new cars have GPS tracking whether you want it or not.

https://www.techwalla.com/articles/how-to-disable-the-gps-locator-in-a-car
54   Patrick   2023 Sep 6, 1:42pm  

https://notthebee.com/article/a-huge-percentage-of-electric-vehicle-owners-are-defecting-and-going-back-to-internal-combustion-cars


Is our honeymoon with the electric vehicle finally over? A study found that one in five early adopters of EV cars and trucks are returning to gas-powered vehicles. As a result, used EV prices are freefalling.

The Journal Nature published a study revealing that of the folks who were early adopters of EVs in California (between 2012 and 2018), 20% of [plug-in hybrid] drivers have returned to fully gas-powered vehicles and 18% of full EV drivers returned to gas-powered - with their subsequent vehicle purchase. ...

Dude got into a fender-bender in his Rivian. Insurance offered $1,600. The repair bill was $42,000.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I just feel like there's some stuff they're not telling us about these electric cars...


And just last weekend, my wife's cousin was saying how hard it was to use her EV to get from Los Gatos to Half Moon Bay, because there is a big hill in the way, and how expensive repairs are on it. Can't remember what car it was, not a Tesla.
55   richwicks   2023 Sep 6, 4:53pm  

Patrick says

As a result, used EV prices are freefalling.


Don't buy one!!!!

The battery pack has a limited lifespan, and that's like 1/2 the cost of the vehicle.

Patrick says

Dude got into a fender-bender in his Rivian. Insurance offered $1,600. The repair bill was $42,000.


If you get into a minor accident in an EV, you MAY have damaged the battery pack, and if you have, it's basically a bomb. Even minor accidents, for safety reasons, need the entire battery pack to be replaced.

EV's kind of remind me of thin clients. They try to bring that back every few years too. I think we're on the verge of abandoning all this Green Energy nonsense as people are starting to recognize that although PERHAPS IN THE FUTURE, it might be viable, we're not there yet.
56   HeadSet   2023 Sep 6, 6:15pm  

richwicks says

The battery pack has a limited lifespan

Interesting. There is a cab company in AZ that runs a fleet of 200 Prius cabs and has done so for more than 15 years. They put over 300,000 miles on them before removing them but have kept a few around for 10 years with much more mileage. The Prius is a hybrid, but the battery is still constantly charged and discharged. It seems the all electric car's battery would hold up as well.
57   richwicks   2023 Sep 6, 6:33pm  

HeadSet says


Interesting. There is a cab company in AZ that runs a fleet of 200 Prius cabs and has done so for more than 15 years. They put over 300,000 miles on them before removing them but have kept a few around for 10 years with much more mileage. The Prius is a hybrid, but the battery is still constantly charged and discharged. It seems the all electric car's battery would hold up as well.


It's not quite the same. A hybrid only activates the battery for acceleration and breaking.

Batteries have a limited lifespan because of dendrites. As you recharge a battery, you end up with little tendrils of metal from the cathode, when it touches the anode, the battery is dead, or at least that cell of the battery is dead. It's a short.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWsR44dmbBs

That does a pretty good explanation of it.

I have no idea how big the Prius battery is or if it's replaceable. 1/2 the cost of an EV is just the battery pack.
58   Ceffer   2023 Sep 6, 7:16pm  

Electric cars are the bomb. Doesn't everybody feel clean and green driving around in a remote controlled bomb?

All green measures are designed to fail. They are the Globalist Satanic Inversion Lie of sustainablity, they are the exact opposite. They don't want us sustained, they want us dead or enslaved to their crumbs.

Get rid of the shit that works, get corruptocrats to impose green measures, dismantle the infrastructure that could be relied upon, bake and wait for the desperate, helpless population.
59   richwicks   2023 Sep 7, 3:45am  

Ceffer says

All green measures are designed to fail.


NO, they aren't.

That's what is funded, frequently, but that's not exclusively it. If you have the money, you can live off grid quite comfortably. You will need space and either you will have to change your lifestyle a bit, or get some energy storage system that either had to be regularly replaced or is novel and expensive.

Solar energy is probably a good idea but not how it's implemented. Look at all the roofs we have that are just black and collecting heat. Cover them with panels.

Panels are much thinner than they were 15 years ago. They are practically paper thin, which greatly reduces the energy needed to produce them. I'm out of the field now, but I think it's possible to make it beneficial. If, for example, you could make them practically no cost, like the cost of paper, all of a sudden, production of hydrogen from water and electrolysis makes sense.

We have to reduce costs.
60   RWSGFY   2023 Sep 7, 7:38am  

The $42K bill is not surprising, but it's not exclusive to EVs either. A fender is not a fender anymore - it is packed with sensors and cameras. Same for bumpers and even taillights. And don't get me started on windshields: what used to be a $120 job to replace a cracked one is now a $1500 ordeal with a trip to the dealer to calibrate all the shit they now have in/behind it.
61   RWSGFY   2023 Sep 20, 12:58pm  

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pushed back the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the UK from 2030 to 2035
Sunak says he still expects that by 2030 "the vast majority" of cars will be electric, because of improving technology
He also says there will be "far more time" to transition from gas boilers to heat pumps
--Beebs
62   Booger   2023 Sep 20, 1:36pm  

RWSGFY says

The $42K bill is not surprising, but it's not exclusive to EVs either. A fender is not a fender anymore - it is packed with sensors and cameras. Same for bumpers and even taillights. And don't get me started on windshields: what used to be a $120 job to replace a cracked one is now a $1500 ordeal with a trip to the dealer to calibrate all the shit they now have in/behind it.


Don't buy any vehicle that has sensors in the windshield, bumpers, or lights. This means no adaptive cruise control / collision avoidance l lane departure or self driving features.
63   HeadSet   2023 Sep 20, 5:27pm  

Booger says

Don't buy any vehicle that has sensors in the windshield, bumpers, or lights. This means no adaptive cruise control / collision avoidance l lane departure or self driving features.

Above message sponsored by:

64   REpro   2023 Sep 20, 7:30pm  

Absolutely biggest pollution is cause by tire. Much more than ICE. Unfortunately, both cars type electric, and ICE use the same tire.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/07/electric-vehicles-tires-wearing-out-particulates/674750/
65   RWSGFY   2023 Oct 5, 8:52pm  

REpro says


Absolutely biggest pollution is cause by tire. Much more than ICE. Unfortunately, both cars type electric, and ICE use the same tire.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/07/electric-vehicles-tires-wearing-out-particulates/674750/


My BIL's Tesla goes through a set of tires every 15K miles like a fucking clockwork. At $400+ for a corner. (The bithching and moaning is epic, LOL). And these are not some super-sticky TW200 tires I like on my sportscars - these are pretty meh plasticky touring all-seasons with TW north of 400. They also gather screws and nails like crazy - I haven't had as many flats in 30 years as he gets in a fucking month, no kidding. I guess this is what happens when passenger tires are run on a vehicle which weights like a fucking truck...
66   richwicks   2023 Oct 5, 8:55pm  

RWSGFY says

My BIL's Tesla goes through a set of tires every 15K miles like a fucking clockwork. At $400+ for a corner. (The bithching and moaning is epic, LOL). And these are not some super-sticky TW200 tires I like on my sportscars - these are pretty meh plasticky touring all-seasons with TW north of 400. They also gather screws and nails like crazy - I haven't had as many flats in 30 years as he gets in a fucking month, no kidding. I guess this is what happens when passenger tires are run on a vehicle which weights like a fucking truck...


Not that I know anything about this, but are his tires properly aligned? If you have poor alignment on your tires, they wear very quickly. That I do know.
68   richwicks   2023 Oct 5, 9:52pm  

PedoIwog says


https://youtu.be/USVd_k6lQ_c?si=4xDjnEMcFHau5Xl6


I know somebody that works for Rivian. He has NO FAITH in the company, he's waiting for his stock to mature, and to cash out.

It's all government money, incentives, and bullshit investing from god knows where. I don't think EVs have a future. In 20 years, we'll just see this as a minor mania because the world won't be burning down (again) from climate change.
69   HeadSet   2023 Oct 6, 1:24pm  

richwicks says

In 20 years, we'll just see this as a minor mania because the world won't be burning down (again) from climate change.

The goal is to make cars too expensive for anyone except the rich and politically connected. In 20 years, owning a car will be like owning a private jet today.
70   richwicks   2023 Oct 6, 1:39pm  

HeadSet says

richwicks says


In 20 years, we'll just see this as a minor mania because the world won't be burning down (again) from climate change.

The goal is to make cars too expensive for anyone except the rich and politically connected. In 20 years, owning a car will be like owning a private jet today.


In 20 years, we won't even have this government.

We're going to lose the proxy war in Ukraine, and that's going to jeopardize our hold over Europe. US sanctions don't matter, everybody just ignores them now or "technically" follow them, while entirely ignoring them. US has destroyed itself through 2 decades of pointless wars.
72   zzyzzx   2023 Oct 20, 11:46am  

I think that it's only a matter of time before homeowner insurance companies drop or rate jack EV owners over all the EV's spontaneously combusting and taking the house with it.
73   PeopleUnited   2023 Oct 20, 11:50am  

HeadSet says

richwicks says


In 20 years, we'll just see this as a minor mania because the world won't be burning down (again) from climate change.

The goal is to make cars too expensive for anyone except the rich and politically connected. In 20 years, owning a car will be like owning a private jet today.

I’m not sure we have 20 years to wait.
The stuff going on in Israel and Russia right now is an indication that Bible prophecy is likely soon to be fulfilled. Remember, prophecy is not a prediction, it is a promise.

https://patrick.net/post/1378973/2023-04-02-the-rapture-thread?start=54
74   HeadSet   2023 Oct 20, 2:15pm  

PeopleUnited says

The stuff going on in Israel and Russia right now is an indication that Bible prophecy is likely soon to be fulfilled. Remember, prophecy is not a prediction, it is a promise.

In the year 1000 AD and at many other times. people thought current events indicated the Bible prophesy coming to pass. Everyone thinks the end of the world will occur during their lifetimes.
75   SunnyvaleCA   2023 Oct 20, 3:32pm  

zzyzzx says

I think that it's only a matter of time before homeowner insurance companies drop or rate jack EV owners over all the EV's spontaneously combusting and taking the house with it.

Here in California (and I suspect every other state), the state government heavily "manages" the so-called "private" insurance market. CA government is heavily invested in pushing EVs on everyone. So, they will mandate insurance companies offer low rates to EV vehicles even if it means they jack up rates on ICE vehicles. Dropping EVs won't be an allowed option, but we are seeing companies leave the state altogether (mostly for homeowner insurance because of forrest fires). As insurance companies leave the state, the government will rejoice, because it will give an excuse to take over the industry entirely—socialism for all!
76   PeopleUnited   2023 Oct 20, 4:10pm  

HeadSet says

PeopleUnited says


The stuff going on in Israel and Russia right now is an indication that Bible prophecy is likely soon to be fulfilled. Remember, prophecy is not a prediction, it is a promise.

In the year 1000 AD and at many other times. people thought current events indicated the Bible prophesy coming to pass. Everyone thinks the end of the world will occur during their lifetimes.

Except you and 8.1 billion other humans?
77   Booger   2023 Oct 20, 4:10pm  

SunnyvaleCA says

Dropping EVs won't be an allowed option


They will drop your homeowners insurance over the EV fire risk, or leave the state.

That or some newer batteries will be produced that don't catch on fire so much.
78   PeopleUnited   2023 Oct 20, 4:15pm  

By the way the rapture is not the end of the world, it is the beginning of the closest thing to hell on earth. Imagine every single horror and disaster movie happening at the same time nonstop for 7 years. It will be worse than that! And then Jesus will return and set up his millennial kingdom in which he will rule on earth for a thousand years. After 1000 years Satan will be loosed for one last time and then the end will come.

So we are at least 1007 years before the end of the world. But when the rapture comes hell on earth begins, so best not be left behind!

Jesus and only Jesus can save and keep you from the great tribulation soon to be unleashed on the world by Satan and his minions.
79   stereotomy   2023 Oct 20, 4:39pm  

I'm ready for hell. In fact, if Jesus comes toward me I'll thank Him,"Thank you Lord, for allowing me to drop my firearm. I am tired dispensing righteous wrath to the agents of Satan. Am I still not worthy to be enraptured?"

Christ would gently say "Ever since Michael flew off after the last kerfluffle with Lucifer back in the day, we've had to improvise somewhat. Tell you what, you just keep doing Our work for us, and we'll put a good word in when it's you're time at the Pearly Gates,"

I would say "Thanks Lord, if that is your will."

Christ would look askance at me and ask "And . . . "

I would then hopefully remember to say "You are my lord and personal savior. Whoever believes in you will sit with you at the right hand of the Father."

Every club has its code words.
80   PeopleUnited   2023 Oct 20, 8:05pm  

Every fool has a cute story bro. And when you stand before God, let me know what He thinks.

Perhaps He will gently say, if you really believed me, why did you mock my sacrifice for your disobedience (sin) and make me pay for it on the cross? Why did you also mock my children who believe in me? For if you had repented I would know you, but I tell you the truth I never knew thee, depart from me ye that work iniquity.
81   AD   2023 Oct 20, 8:11pm  

.

Look at the "entry level" electric vehicle, the Chevy Bolt with MSRP of around $26,500 and a range of about 260 miles.

Its been reported owners are easily getting 300 miles range.

Chevy needs a marketing campaign to show life cycle or total ownership costs for at least 10 years. Chevy guarantees the batteries for 100,000 miles. So figure based on 15,000 miles per year that is 6.7 years.

.
82   HeadSet   2023 Oct 20, 9:03pm  

ad says

.

Look at the "entry level" electric vehicle, the Chevy Bolt with MSRP of around $26,500 and a range of about 260 miles.

Its been reported owners are easily getting 300 miles range.

Chevy needs a marketing campaign to show life cycle or total ownership costs for at least 10 years. Chevy guarantees the batteries for 100,000 miles. So figure based on 15,000 miles per year that is 6.7 years.

.

I had a Bolt EV on loan from Chevy for a week, as they were trying to sell the cab company I worked for a fleet of them. The car got about 230 miles in range on a full charge. I loved that car. The only issue is that Chevy limited the charge speed so from empty to full would take 2 hours on a Level 3 charger. I presume they did this to save the battery, as repeated fast charges, even on a Tesla, shorten battery life. Tesla owners are richer so are likely to have a Level 2 charger at home and use the Level 3 chargers only on road trips. The Bolt was aimed at a lower economic market that would include apartment dwellers who with no home charger would thus regularly use the Level 3 chargers. Therefore, Chevy limited the charge speed to preserve battery life. Unfortunately, nobody wants to wait 3 hours to charge a car while on a road trip. For those who stayed in town and lived in a house with a level 2 charger or even a accessible dryer plug, one could easily charge overnight. If one just used the Bolt as a commuter car and lived 10 miles from work, one could use plain old household 110v current to top off the car each night. At 110v, the Bolt recharged at about 4 miles per hour.
83   AD   2023 Oct 20, 9:38pm  

HeadSet says

I presume they did this to save the battery, as repeated fast charges, even on a Tesla, shorten battery life.


Yep.
.



.
84   AD   2023 Oct 20, 9:47pm  

Minimum wage was $1.60 an hour back in 1970. Cars were affordable relative to minimum wage. You could spend 5 years earning minimum wage to comfortably paying off the car loan for a Maverick. City/Highway mileage was 17/22 only :-/

I like how Chevy Bolt similarly markets to the working class who may make $15 an hour.


85   HeadSet   2023 Oct 21, 6:57am  

ad says

You could spend 5 years earning minimum wage to comfortably paying off the car loan for a Maverick.

True, but there were no 5 year loans back then. Then, as now, minimum wage earners made due with used cars. Today's used cars are a far better deal than used cars in the 1960s. A 5 year old car today likely has no issues and lots of life left, while a 5 year old car in 1969 likely was starting to burn oil, had broken door knobs, saggy seats, leaky heater core, rusted radiator, lots of rattles, brake issues, and rust. If one had a 5 year old car, it was likely you needed the services of AAMCO or the many other transmission specialists that used to exist in every town. 1970s cars were even worse.

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