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Florida Real Estate Collapse


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2023 Mar 29, 10:07pm   6,045 views  152 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (10)   ignore (3)  

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/640-Pelican-Dr-Satellite-Beach-FL-32937/43447731_zpid/

2015 - Sold For $155k

2/8/2019 Sold $209,000

Now? Asking $400,000
So we're to believe in 4 years, that this house legit went up almost double. Or in a decade went up almost triple.

Another one:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3802-Sunbeam-Ct-Merritt-Island-FL-32953/43404282_zpid/?mmlb=g%2C13

11/25/2013 Sold
$193,500
-3.2%
$98/sqft

2/14/2023 Listed for sale
$514,900
+166.1%
$261/sqft
Source: DBAMLS #1105834 Report a problem

Both of these houses were minimally updated. The first one was built in the 1960s.

I got half dozen more examples. Here's another, it was just under $250k in what looks like a Steelolanogranite Realtor Flip Special in 2019, before COVID. It was purchased late 2018 for under $172k. Now they want almost $500k for it just 5 years later.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/356-W-Dover-St-Satellite-Beach-FL-32937/43448773_zpid/

If you're curious, check out Palm Bay and Melbourne on the mainland. 1950s/1960s Space Program small cinderblock specials, some with no Central Air, are going for almost the same as brand new construction much larger and more modern.

« First        Comments 128 - 152 of 152        Search these comments

128   AD   2025 Apr 28, 12:02pm  

AmericanKulak says

AD says



but during the summer the humidity usually is 55% if the temp is in lower 90s so the heat index usually peaks around 100

The historical weather records say otherwise. It's just like the rest of Florida and the Gulf Coast. Swimmin' in your shorts and drippin' like a mop, in Summer.

It's like other cities along the North shore of the Gulf of America: Mobile, Galveston, and NOLA, not San Diego. Nobody ever says "Wow, it's a dry heat here in Alabama in July"


Same goes for east coast like New Jersey, except you can comfortably go to the beach from beginning of March to end of November in the Florida panhandle.

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129   AD   2025 May 1, 3:07pm  

from June 2020 Reader's Digest page 73

I'm surprised Florida panhandle is average as it's beach weather from March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

I'm not surprised about Illinois being below average.


130   AmericanKulak   2025 May 1, 3:23pm  

AD says


March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

And sweating your balls off just to walk to the mailbox within 2 minutes of leaving the A/C hahaha
131   WookieMan   2025 May 1, 3:46pm  

AmericanKulak says

AD says



March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

And sweating your balls off just to walk to the mailbox within 2 minutes of leaving the A/C hahaha

I like that though. Better than feeling like an oven. Golfed once in 110ºF temps in AZ and it was miserable. I'll take FL any day of the year. I wear long sleeves and pants in warm weather so the bugs won't bother me in humid location FL or an IL summer day.

San Diego area has the best weather in the country. Winter or summer. I like FL, though have never done August or September due to hurricanes. May I think is the best time in the Panhandle. Water is warming up, temps are solid and not generally humid.
132   AD   2025 May 1, 4:03pm  

WookieMan says

AmericanKulak says


AD says




March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

And sweating your balls off just to walk to the mailbox within 2 minutes of leaving the A/C hahaha


I like that though. Better than feeling like an oven. Golfed once in 110ºF temps in AZ and it was miserable. I'll take FL any day of the year. I wear long sleeves and pants in warm weather so the bugs won't bother me in humid location FL or an IL summer day.

San Diego area has the best weather in the country. Winter or summer. I like FL, though have never done August or September due to hurricanes. May I think is the best time in the Panhandle. Water is warming up, temps are solid and not generally humid.


Exactly Wookie, you will not sweat your balls off by not wearing long sleeve cotton shirts and jeans

Wear this along with nylon (i.e., BREATHABLE) gym pants

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mens-Athletic-Performance-Shirt-Long-Sleeve-Light-Blue-Mahi-M/215970851

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133   AmericanKulak   2025 May 1, 4:38pm  

WookieMan says


I like that though. Better than feeling like an oven. Golfed once in 110ºF temps in AZ and it was miserable. I'll take FL any day of the year. I wear long sleeves and pants in warm weather so the bugs won't bother me in humid location FL or an IL summer day.

Exact opposite. I'll take an oven over a sauna every day and twice on Sunday.

Shade actually helps in low humidity.

Just like I prefer the Air Fryer over the Sogginator (my name for Microwaves)
134   AD   2025 May 1, 7:17pm  

AmericanKulak says

Another one:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3802-Sunbeam-Ct-Merritt-Island-FL-32953/43404282_zpid/?mmlb=g%2C13

11/25/2013 Sold
$193,500
-3.2%
$98/sqft

2/14/2023 Listed for sale
$514,900
+166.1%
$261/sqft
Source: DBAMLS #1105834 Report a problem


It sold for $450,000 in April 2023 before the housing market started to freeze up

It sold for $134,000 in 2000, and was built in 1997

Went up in value about 5.5% annually from 2000 to 2023 :-/

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135   WookieMan   2025 May 1, 10:57pm  

AmericanKulak says

Just like I prefer the Air Fryer over the Sogginator (my name for Microwaves)

In agreement. That's for food though. I don't microwave a thing for myself. As a human I'd rather sweat than be put in an oven.
136   AD   2025 May 2, 12:59pm  

.

this 3 bedroom , 2.5 bath, 1 car garage unit in Panama City Beach currently rents for $1895 which is same price it may have rented in 2021
rents have steadied or have dropped some which helps the working class like the hospitality and service workers on the beach

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1609-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87635669_zpid/

My forecast is townhomes in Panama City Beach will drop about 20 to 25% from their all time highs set in early 2022, which are almost the same price level at the peak of the 2003-2006 Bill Clinton Housing Bubble.

............

Florida Housing Market Mirroring 2008 Crash—Real Estate Analyst

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-mirroring-2008-crash-analyst-2067158

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137   AD   2025 May 2, 3:39pm  

I researched "Hathaway Luxury Apartments" in Panama City Beach (within 1 mile of Hathaway Bridge). It's a huge area where they cleared countless amounts of southern pine trees, as it looks like at least 200 apartment units will be built.

The agent for the Hathaway Luxury Apartment LLC is
Marvin Setness - Controller - RD Offutt Company

I wonder why a major potato company (RD Offutt Company from North Dakota) is an apartment developer in Panama City Beach 😕

But they stopped construction about 4 months ago after they cleared the land, perhaps waiting for the rental market to improve, and/or for interest rates to drop.

Rents seem to remain at 2021 or 2022 levels for at least townhomes on the beach and I don't trust the mega apartment complexes like Urban Blu as they are very deceitful.

US Department of Justice is suing Real Page which is used by apartment complexes to collude on rent.

.
138   AmericanKulak   2025 May 2, 3:47pm  

WookieMan says


In agreement. That's for food though. I don't microwave a thing for myself. As a human I'd rather sweat than be put in an oven.

Microwave devotion is a boomer thing mostly, maybe a few Xers who grew up with that as the primary cooking method. I think it's because it came out when they were kids and is always the "Hot New Thing in the Kitchen" in their mind.

I've seen Boomers look at me aghast when I've not had a microwave. And as if I didn't understand I could get one at the Thrift Shop. No, I just don't use it much, I have one now pretty much as a hotbox to keep food in if I'm making a multi-course meal.

"What about boiling water"? A $20 new electric kettle does the same thing faster, safer, larger quantity.
139   Ceffer   2025 May 2, 4:36pm  

An unplugged microwave is a good place to toss cell phones and small laptops in case of an EMP attack.
140   PeopleUnited   2025 May 2, 9:17pm  

If there was an emp attack, wouldn’t it fry the cell towers and wifi networks anyway? Only hope would be starlink type orbiting internet, but that is assuming that you still have a power source to charge your devices.
141   AD   2025 May 2, 9:34pm  

PeopleUnited says

If there was an emp attack, wouldn’t it fry the cell towers and wifi networks anyway? Only hope would be starlink type orbiting internet, but that is assuming that you still have a power source to charge your devices.


Starlink depends on computer servers in Bastrop, Texas. Use analog systems like a mid 1970s car (or earlier), and HAM radios that are not digital. Wish I had a Volkswagen Beetle built in 1970s.
142   Glock-n-Load   2025 May 3, 5:46am  

AD says

I researched "Hathaway Luxury Apartments" in Panama City Beach (within 1 mile of Hathaway Bridge). It's a huge area where they cleared countless amounts of southern pine trees, as it looks like at least 200 apartment units will be built.

The agent for the Hathaway Luxury Apartment LLC is
Marvin Setness - Controller - RD Offutt Company

I wonder why a major potato company (RD Offutt Company from North Dakota) is an apartment developer in Panama City Beach 😕

But they stopped construction about 4 months ago after they cleared the land, perhaps waiting for the rental market to improve, and/or for interest rates to drop.

Rents seem to remain at 2021 or 2022 levels for at least townhomes on the beach and I don't trust the mega apartment complexes like Urban Blu as they are very deceitful.

US Department of Justice is suing Real Page which is used by apartment complexes to collude on rent.

.

My wife is a property manager and they conduct “Market Surveys” to keep up on pricing. These are phone calls and physical tours of neighboring apartment complexes to see what their rent and amenities are. I’m more than sure this is a tool used to collude also. I fail to see how the colluding could be stopped.
143   HeadSet   2025 May 3, 6:44am  

Glock-n-Load says

My wife is a property manager and they conduct “Market Surveys” to keep up on pricing. These are phone calls and physical tours of neighboring apartment complexes to see what their rent and amenities are. I’m more than sure this is a tool used to collude also. I fail to see how the colluding could be stopped.

Market research is not collusion. Collusion is when a group of landlords get together and agree on pricing.
144   Glock-n-Load   2025 May 3, 8:09am  

HeadSet says


Glock-n-Load says


My wife is a property manager and they conduct “Market Surveys” to keep up on pricing. These are phone calls and physical tours of neighboring apartment complexes to see what their rent and amenities are. I’m more than sure this is a tool used to collude also. I fail to see how the colluding could be stopped.

Market research is not collusion. Collusion is when a group of landlords get together and agree on pricing.


And how do you think they do it? Maybe it isn’t explicit but, it can surely be accomplished like this. Tell me why they would do these market surveys then instead of just running their own businesses according to their own books/accounting? I imagine also, that collusion is very difficult to prove.
145   AD   2025 May 3, 9:08am  

Glock-n-Load says

I imagine also, that collusion is very difficult to prove.


You'd need smoking gun evidence likely to prove antitrust behavior like collusion on depressing wages within a sector or industry, or collusion on rent prices.

I guess hidden camera video would be that, and doubt there would be a paper trail like emails.
146   HeadSet   2025 May 3, 2:40pm  

Glock-n-Load says

Tell me why they would do these market surveys then instead of just running their own businesses according to their own books/accounting?

Prices are set by what the market will bear, not internal costs. When I priced my rental houses I looked at what others were advertising for similar places.
147   AmericanKulak   2025 May 3, 3:13pm  

And the Fed tracks rental prices not buy buying stats from Apartments.com, Zillow, Rental Agencies, etc. but by calling homeloaners who haven't rented in 10-20-30 years or looked at local rentals in a decade, and asking them what they'd pay for their own place as a renter. They don't ask current renters, either.

"Well shucks, after I had two kids and brought a house here in Springfield in 2011, we were paying about $1200/month for a 3 bed, 2 bath ranch. So I guess I'd pay $1400 today in 2025."

In case you were wondering why the CPI for housing is ridiculously low versus reality.
148   AD   2025 May 11, 9:52am  

.

This is why Panama City is betting on tourism, and one major positive is its beach roads are around 11 foot above sea level , which is higher than South Floridas (averaging 4 feet).

Panama City Beach tourism includes a very large Tootsies (worlds largest honky tonk) at the old Spinnakers nightclub as well as so many other venues and attractions like eco tourism (dolphin and sea turtles, fishing on the beach, etc) and its state parks.

It is gearing toward being an affordable Florida vacation and alternative to Orlando / Disney World and Miami Beach, AND for those family vacationers who want to be able to drive to Florida within a 14 hours drive of as far away as Chicago suburbs.

https://nypost.com/2025/05/11/lifestyle/florida-dad-craig-stowell-talks-about-1400-family-disney-world-trip/

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149   Fortwaye   2025 May 11, 10:07am  

HeadSet says

Glock-n-Load says


Tell me why they would do these market surveys then instead of just running their own businesses according to their own books/accounting?

Prices are set by what the market will bear, not internal costs. When I priced my rental houses I looked at what others were advertising for similar places.


exactly! savings are never passed on to the buyer. chinese shit is cheap, yet our prices are sky high.
150   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2025 May 11, 10:35am  

AmericanKulak says

Microwave


I just use mine to heat up a coffee cup of water for my instant coffee.
151   zzyzzx   2025 May 14, 10:46am  

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14708061/southern-state-housing-market-real-estate-crash.html

Southern state residents 'desperate to escape' but homes won't sell as crash looms

Panic selling is setting in, with residents spooked by skyrocketing HOA fees, especially in the wake of the 2021 Surfside condo collapse, as well as soaring insurance premiums.
152   AD   2025 May 14, 10:58am  

zzyzzx says


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14708061/southern-state-housing-market-real-estate-crash.html

Southern state residents 'desperate to escape' but homes won't sell as crash looms

Panic selling is setting in, with residents spooked by skyrocketing HOA fees, especially in the wake of the 2021 Surfside condo collapse, as well as soaring insurance premiums.


Yeah this is true for South Florida for the old high rises. Florida passed or is going to pass legislation to try to alleviate this.

This may have a spill over effect to other housing like townhomes and two floor condos.

Not seeing this a factor in Panama City Beach and panhandle for various reasons as those beach front condos do not have same environmental challenges like Surfside Miami; one reason is the panhandle beach front is at least 10 feet above sea level.

For many, they have a lot of equity in those Miami beach front condos so they'll take a reverse mortgage on them to live in them.

Also a major increase in demand for restoration of those condos will result in an increase in qualified contractors to work on them; this may result in lower prices for the HOAs.

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