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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,318 views  187 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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164   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 1:35pm  

RWSGFY says

How this is different from demon rat attitude towards election laws? "Fuck your election laws, we'll do what we want, good luck catching us."

I don't care. I want to know my ballot is counted and have proof. It's not cheating or doing a thing with others ballots. Not sure your point or that you understood what I said.
166   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Nov 4, 2:43pm  

If it isn't the voter fraud that dooms Trump, it will be this:

168   mell   2024 Nov 4, 3:23pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says


If it isn't the voter fraud that dooms Trump, it will be this:



The turnout so far has been better for Trump than in 2020 in terms of party affiliation and gender. Womynz always vote by mail/early because they are afraid of covid and everything else. If the turnout on election day is roughly the same as 2020 then Trump should win this. It shouldn't be close but it likely will, still Trump should win this.
169   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 3:47pm  

All my friends voted already. I'm going 6am tomorrow. No lines in my town at that time. Farmers already found time during breaks to early vote. All the geezers I know voted already in anticipation of standing in long line.

Trying to give them the least amount of time to fuck with my vote and I'm documenting it. My polling place should be 80 Trump and 20 Harris. We'll see.
170   RWSGFY   2024 Nov 4, 3:52pm  

WookieMan says


RWSGFY says


How this is different from demon rat attitude towards election laws? "Fuck your election laws, we'll do what we want, good luck catching us."

I don't care. I want to know my ballot is counted and have proof. It's not cheating or doing a thing with others ballots. Not sure your point or that you understood what I said.



You are in IL. The demon rats rule there. They will throw a book at you if you waltz in and confess of violating the election laws in order to "catch them". I get it, you have no principles, it happens. But your "proof" will be used against you first.
171   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 5:42pm  

RWSGFY says

You are in IL. The demon rats rule there. They will throw a book at you if you waltz in and confess of violating the election laws in order to "catch them". I get it, you have no principles, it happens. But your "proof" will be used against you first.

The cool part is I get to do what I want. I have the means to fight anything. I also know how to manipulate people. Not going to air my dirty laundry here, but I know what I'm doing. I also know everyone including state wide. I try to keep my mouth shut here, but it's mostly a CA centric site. So not overly worried.

Fortunately I have a common name, so I'm hard to dox. My last name is well known in Wisconsin and Illinois. But trust me, the county or state would have nothing on me. You gotta know the game.
172   Robert Sproul   2024 Nov 4, 6:28pm  

I just listened to NPR interview some retired General and it was crystal clear that they are preparing for civil unrest and they will get their unrest whatever it takes. I anticipate 'Contested Results' followed by a 'False Flag' of obscene violence (Boston Marathon style) blamed on a 'Right Wing Extremist'. Game over. They are going to stop short of whatever-it-takes? They did 'Covid' FFS.
I am still amazed at how easy it was for them to orchestrate Jan 6, completely own the narrative, and spend years rubbing it in by jailing whoever the hell they want. Or get away with a blatantly stolen election last time, and spend the next 4 years mocking anybody that had the slightest doubt. Why the hell would it be any different this time? Elon is going to stop it single handed?

I knew there was a reason why last month the DoD updated Directive 5420.01, giving U.S. armed forces the power to use lethal force against protesting U.S. civilians.
173   HeadSet   2024 Nov 4, 7:11pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

If it isn't the voter fraud that dooms Trump, it will be this:

Yes, men that have to work on a Tuesday need to find a time to fit in voting.
174   AD   2024 Nov 4, 7:26pm  

Tonight's betting odds is 58% for Trump on Real Clear Politics, for whatever it is worth

I hope if Harris does win, that she does not act like she has a mandate as far as the border, student loan forgiveness, deficit spending, etc
175   AmericanKulak   2024 Nov 4, 7:31pm  

HeadSet says

Yes, men that have to work on a Tuesday need to find a time to fit in voting.

This is why voting should be on Saturday.

Welfare schlubs are gonna schlub no matter what day of the week it is. It makes it easier for men to vote.
176   Robert Sproul   2024 Nov 4, 7:46pm  

Polymarket is 2.8 to 1 for Trump, so 38,000 on Harris will return 100K if she wins.
It is a way to hedge the hideous feeling of her winning with a little dopamine from the cash win.
This is Scott Galloway's idea except of course he is putting up $385,000 for a Million win.
.....on the other hand him losing 385 will make a Trump win just a little sweeter.
177   HeadSet   2024 Nov 4, 7:58pm  

AmericanKulak says

Welfare schlubs are gonna schlub no matter what day of the week it is

Or just give the ballots to the harvesters.
178   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Nov 4, 8:15pm  

Robert Sproul says

Polymarket is 2.8 to 1 for Trump,


Polymarket is bullshit. Ppl who bet aren't the ppl voting and you can even withdraw from a bet at anytime. What a crock.
179   goofus   2024 Nov 4, 9:44pm  

Robert Sproul says


I just listened to NPR interview some retired General and it was crystal clear that they are preparing for civil unrest and they will get their unrest whatever it takes. I anticipate 'Contested Results' followed by a 'False Flag' of obscene violence (Boston Marathon style) blamed on a 'Right Wing Extremist'. Game over. They are going to stop short of whatever-it-takes? They did 'Covid' FFS.
I am still amazed at how easy it was for them to orchestrate Jan 6, completely own the narrative, and spend years rubbing it in by jailing whoever the hell they want. Or get away with a blatantly stolen election last time, and spend the next 4 years mocking anybody that had the slightest doubt. Why the hell would it be any different this time? Elon is going to stop it single handed?

I knew there was a reason why last month the DoD updated Directive 5420.01, giving U.S. armed forces the power to use lethal force against protesting U.S. civilians.


Scary that this is even in the realm of possibility, but there it is. However the BLM shock troops are not all on the same page [https://kfoxtv.com/news/nation-world/blm-activist-plans-to-vote-for-trump-been-blindly-loyal-to-the-democrat-party-mark-fisher-black-lives-matter-rhode-island-donald-trump-kamala-harris-democratic-republican-party].

Those left, like gays, women “of color,” and abortion-addled white women, aren’t much of a street threat. Let’s hope the left is in as much disarray as it seems.
180   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 10:02pm  

AmericanKulak says


HeadSet says

Yes, men that have to work on a Tuesday need to find a time to fit in voting.

This is why voting should be on Saturday.

Welfare schlubs are gonna schlub no matter what day of the week it is. It makes it easier for men to vote.

Not hard to fit in time. Most polling places open at 6am in your local time zone. Wife and I are up at 4:30am almost every day. Lines will be non-existent if you get there early. I think in most states it's either a holiday now or your employer has to let you leave work to vote at minimum.

IL went the holiday route, but it used to be during Obama years here your employer had to allow you time to vote on the clock. It's the people that wait until the afternoon/evening that just turn around when they see the line.
181   AD   2024 Nov 4, 10:04pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Polymarket is bullshit. Ppl who bet aren't the ppl voting and you can even withdraw from a bet at anytime. What a crock.


For what its worth, the Real Clear Politics betting average is 57.7% for Trump

.
182   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 10:31pm  

AD says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Polymarket is bullshit. Ppl who bet aren't the ppl voting and you can even withdraw from a bet at anytime. What a crock.

For what its worth, the Real Clear Politics betting average is 57.7% for Trump

It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.

My one liberal neighbors and friends put out Obama, Clinton and Biden signs in the past. Nothing this year besides local/state races. I don't do signs because I'm a minimalist and they make my yard look like shit. But 2 Harris signs out of 800 homes in a purple county. I think we go red. Cook county (Chicago) fucks our entire state.
183   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Nov 4, 10:51pm  

WookieMan says


It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.


That's not a poll. Americans can't even bet on Polymarket.
184   AD   2024 Nov 4, 11:01pm  

.

for what its worth, the 6 registered voters in this New Hampshire town voted at 12:01 am today (election day) and they split 3 for Trump and 3 for Harris

as a comparison, Biden got 5 out of 5 votes in 2020

in 2016, Hilary got 4, Trump got 2 , Gary Johnson got 1 and Mitt Romney got 1

and Ayote got 5 out of 6 votes for governor in November 2024 ; Ayote seems like a solid Republican candidate

https://www.wmur.com/article/midnight-voting-new-hampshire-election-results-24/62810457

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Federal_election_results

,
185   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 11:02pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

WookieMan says



It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.


That's not a poll. Americans can't even bet on Polymarket.

Yes they can. VPN. It's not 2000. 90% of the population didn't know about the existence of VPN. Much different now. I can "live" anywhere in the world. Especially younger guys that are more tech savvy. It's not hard to skirt around state and federal laws.

Either way Polymarket just shows you that guys are not voting for Harris in large numbers. Women generally don't gamble unless at a casino.
186   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 11:08pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

That's not a poll.

Tell that to someone that bets on the horses. The betting odds usually favor the best horse. That horse is Trump.

Human sports not so much since officials, coaches and players can all fix a game. Owners of horses want the breeding values which is millions of dollars. They want them to win. One good horse and you're retired.
187   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Nov 4, 11:51pm  

WookieMan says


Tell that to someone that bets on the horses.


I will. Along with a justified barrage pissing over the crappy education they got.

Betting isn't a poll on horses any more than they are on voters. Period.

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