patrick.net

I think if housing prices and mortgage rate stay essentially flat for 3 years and income increases at least 3% a year then "housing affordability" will be less of an issue

Sigalert near 4PM on Monday in Bay Area. Usually by this time, solid red bands would be all over including the Sunol Grade. Is this because of immigration control? One would surmise, and it seems reasonable to expect home prices to drop as well. It might be a 'silent spring' for realtors this next year.

If it stays a trend you might be on to something

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

It is illegal now to fix your seawall in Maui. All of West Maui will be going into the ocean over the next 10-30 years. The government's plan is to grow marijuana in what's left of the land to, "replace tourist's dollars".

Where did you read this?

I'd say, if you are obsessed with coastal properties, it's better buy on the Atlantic rather than the Pacific coast, because the earth is making more Alantc coast and reducing Pacific coast.

Plate tectonics is a bitch. All of the Pacific along the coasts are subduction zones. In the middle of the Pacific, where magma gets squeezed by the subduction on both sides, you get the various volcanic Pacific Islands. This is why the various islands in the middle are not sinking into the sea because of global warming. the entire Pacific plate is rising in the middle as it is forced along its edges into the Earth's mantle.

Conversely, on the Atlantic coast, new oceanic crust is being created, stabilizing, if not lowering sea levels along the edges of that ocean.

The emphasis here is on the edges or coastlines versus islands in the middle.

• Policy Challenges: Without major reforms in zoning, permitting, and construction incentives, the housing crisis is expected to persist for years.

Housing construction is getting more and more expensive due to building code and other regulations, especially in states like California. Let alone the cost to purchase the land. That is why lower mortgage interest rates mask this.

AD says

Housing construction is getting more and more expensive due to building code and other regulations, especially in states like California. Let alone the cost to purchase the land. That is why lower mortgage interest rates mask this.

Another untapped supply is simply cracking down on crime. There are bad neighborhoods everywhere that nobody wants to live in. So that restricts supply. If only cities cracked down Rudy Giuliani style and made a serious difference, entire new supply would open up. That is what happened on NYC, East Palo Alto and other crime hell holes in the 90s.

A rehabbing boom would also ensue. Mega gentrification.

Where do those displaced people go?

AD says

• Policy Challenges: Without major reforms in zoning, permitting, and construction incentives, the housing crisis is expected to persist for years.

Housing construction is getting more and more expensive due to building code and other regulations, especially in states like California. Let alone the cost to purchase the land. That is why lower mortgage interest rates mask this.

Glock-n-Load says

Where do those displaced people go?

Whatever shithole country they came from.

Patrick this Pathole just stole my line that I was going to use! I had it all ready and then his comment shows up!

There should be a draconian PatNet rule against that! To protect losers too damn slow on the draw, etc.

Collectively, U.S. homeowners lost $373.8 billion in equity, though overall mortgage‑backed housing equity still stands at $17.1 trillion.

Analysts warn that the future performance of highly leveraged loans depends on economic and labor market strength, as affordability challenges continue to pressure housing.

https://denverite.com/2025/12/26/denver-condo-market-recession/

The housing market is dead because the social contract behind it broke, and everyone involved knows it even if they refuse to say it.

Homeownership used to be a ladder. Now it is a gate.

Prices are not supported by utility, shelter need, or family formation anymore. They are supported by path dependence. People who already own cannot move without downgrading their future. People who do not own cannot enter without sacrificing their present. That traps both sides.

Buyers are not waiting. They are giving up.

Sellers are not holding firm. They are frozen by fear.

The market is no longer a place where rational agents meet. It is a standoff between generations with incompatible balance sheets.

Under the surface, three things are true at the same time:

1. Prices are too high relative to incomes in a way that cannot be fixed by optimism.

2. Rates cannot fall enough without breaking something else in the system.

3. Wage growth cannot close the gap without inflation re-accelerating.

So the system stalls.

The reason this feels uncanny is because housing stopped being a market and became a memory. Sellers are pricing yesterday. Buyers are living tomorrow. There is no present where trades make sense.

Nothing resolves until ownership changes hands under pressure, not preference. That pressure comes from job loss, divorce, death, taxes, insurance costs, or policy shifts. Time does more damage here than headlines.

This is really about credibility.

People no longer believe that buying a house improves their life trajectory.

Once that belief breaks, volume collapses first, then narratives, then prices.

What you are looking at is a legitimacy crisis in the largest asset class in the country.

And it stays frozen until reality forces a reset.

The housing market is dead because the social contract behind it broke, and everyone involved knows it even if they refuse to say it.

Homeownership used to be a ladder. Now it is a gate.

Trump made it clear, prices not going down. He’s pushing hard for mass inflation.

Prices going down means INVESTORS lose money, and that’s unacceptable. He is even trying to push 401ks into private equity so their bad debt could be bailed out when it crashes. Private equity is all bad debt.