patrick.net

ThreeBays says

We can easily get an upper bound estimate on US infections. NYC has a population of 8.4M. If we say herd immunity is reached at 80%, then the upper bound on infected people in NYC is 6.7M. NYC makes up 40% of US covid deaths, so the upper bound of infected people in the US is 16.75M or 5% of the population. That's the UPPER BOUND.

Are you taking into account demographics? Population density? You're taking the worst possible place for a virus to be and saying those numbers will be the same elsewhere. That's not going to happen nationwide. Ever.

ThreeBays says

We can easily get an upper bound estimate on US infections. NYC has a population of 8.4M. If we say herd immunity is reached at 80%, then the upper bound on infected people in NYC is 6.7M. NYC makes up 40% of US covid deaths, so the upper bound of infected people in the US is 16.75M or 5% of the population. That's the UPPER BOUND.

What are you trying to say? If you assume herd immunity is reached at 80%, then of course 80% of the population will have to be exposed one way or another. If each person gets his/her first exposure in a normal social setting, at low viral load, especially under a strong sun like on a beach or in a park (UV kills most airborne virus), then the person is effectively vaccinated (by the natural vaccine created by the Sun's UV); if most people have to get their first exposure in an indoor hospital / nursing-home setting with high viral load, then there would be a lot of sick/dead people from the virus. Locking-down the society kills people quite unnecessarily from a purely virology perspective, before considering any economic effect.

ThreeBays says

Pop density doesn't matter here, we're just talking about how many people are infected.

Population density, especially housing format, matters a lot: NYC apartment buildings have a lot of indoor elevators and staircases that never see sunlight. Whereas the rest of the country mostly live in single-family homes, where the spread of virus from one household to another would expose the virus to prolonged UV irradiation from the Sun during March to September. The high population density of NYC also results in subways and high taxi usage, both of which make people breathe each other's out-breath in a small enclosed space.

Demographics matter. Demographics wise, NYC has a younger population, and lower incidence of obesity than the nation.

But also lower hygiene standards/habits, more opportunities for plumbing errors (and roof plumbing vents creating sewer gas/droplets, especially in the shadow of another building therefore not being sufficiently exposed to the Sun's UV), and cooks/serving-staff not washing hands long enough before touching people's food. Not to mention the hospitals having a higher probability of being staffed by affirmative-action morons who are committing suicide and homicide by not fully protecting themselves during their interactions with patients (as shown in that CBS interview with the doctor / ward chief not wearing eye protection and having the mask's nose clip untightened; none of her staff behind her were wearing eye goggles either while attending to a large windowless room full of alleged Covid-19 patients).

ThreeBays says

Pop density doesn't matter here,

I'm out. This is one of the most unintelligent things I've read on this virus. Why the fuck are entire nursing homes where residents live in 10x10 rooms getting wiped out? Is it density or age? Has to be one or the other.

Considering we're at the point of requiring masks and social distancing, you'd be insane to say population density didn't matter.... which you did.

Just say FUCK TRUMP and move on at this point. Feel like I'm beating a dead horse at this point.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

If each person gets his/her first exposure in a normal social setting, at low viral load, especially under a strong sun like on a beach or in a park (UV kills most airborne virus), then the person is effectively vaccinated (by the natural vaccine created by the Sun's UV); if most people have to get their first exposure in an indoor hospital setting with high viral load, then there would be a lot of sick/dead people from the virus.

Yeah, sorry I don't subscribe to theories pulled out of asses.

Viral load has a huge effect on whether the person gets sick from Covid-19 (and from flu, cold, etc.)

UV light is what is used for disinfecting medical operating rooms, and what's used in most cleaning machines for N-95 masks for re-use.

These two theories / facts are far better grounded in reality than any of the vaccine theory promoted by Gates organization or any of the models promoted by Fauci.

Truth ignored, this is what is called modern journalism. That’s what gives people TDS, who believe anything on internet because that’s easier than thinking.

Left is back to selling edge lord clickbait lol. I guess stupid audience needs stupid bait.

https://hartford.craigslist.org/for/d/middletown-toilet-paper-seeds/7100786040.html

ThreeBays says

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-15/covid-19-studies-imply-more-than-1-million-new-yorkers-with-virus

Based on women giving birth tested for covid-19 in NY, 15% tested positive. So NY hotspot has around 15% infection rate. Nationwide average would be around 1%.

Once again, your comment is showing ignorance. The 15% is the absolutely minimum lower-bound, as clearly expressed in the article as "more than 15%." What's the upper-bound? Can be 80% or even higer. Why? Because the Coronavirus test is testing for viral RNA fragments; a person (a new mother or new-born) having fought off the virus earlier during pregnancy and before delivery would not produce a positive result as they have already flushed the virus from their bodies. An anti-body test is unlikely to produce a positive result within a few weeks either, as the human body has to take several weeks to shift from producing short-term anti-body proteins to producing long-term antibody proteins. The anti-body tests are only testing for long-term antibody proteins. By the time anti-body tests show up positive in 1% or more among the population for a respiratory disease RNA virus, usually the virus has already passed through the bulk of the population.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

more than 15%

It says "33 of them, or more than 15% tested positive". 15.4% to be precise. Taking things out of context just makes you wrong.

You are still not getting it. The 15.4% testing positive at the time of birth (or shortly there-after) indicates at least (on the order of) 15% having been exposed; there can be another 30-85% having been exposed during pregnancy but already cleared the virus out from their bodies before baby delivery. Both types are almost immune to new infection by the same and similar CV (until the next major mutation, just like annual flu mutations)

The new-born statistic is just a way of random sampling that is not biased / self-selected due to severe sickness before arriving at the hospital.

The Diamond Princess numbers indicate that a large cross-section of the population (as much as half to 70%) having already exposed to corona virus previously (otherwise almost everyone would have tested positive, as it takes a couple weeks or longer for a person to go through the full immunal response cycle for first-exposure; and the mixing onboard a cruise ship would have everyone exposed. The USS Ted Roosevelt having the virus-positive number down to 10% is further indicating that the societal exposure already reached 80+%

ThreeBays says

Great, so we established that somewhere between 1% lower bound and 5% upper bound of US will have had the virus in the first wave,

What are you talking about? The first wave is at least 15% according to the new-born data, likely over 50% according to Diamond Princess data, and likely over 80% according to USS Ted Roosevelt data. Every person on those crowded ships was exposed if even a single person had it; the ones who could test negative after a few weeks mixing in that crowd had to be the ones who had fought it off. Just like the annual Flu: while 20k-80k people in the US die of Flu every year, the percentage of US population exposed to it is likely 80+%; most people can fight it off (and develop immunity to that particular year's flu) without showing anything more than slight symptoms or anything at all.

and 95% to 99% remain susceptible to further resurgence.

Depending on what the virus during "resurgence" is; if it's the same virus or minor variations of it, then the overwhelming majority of people would be immune to it. If something more deadly is released or a more deadly strain is evolved in hospitals due to the lock-downs, then nearly 100% of the population is susceptible, just like nearly 100% of the population is susceptible to an entirely new strain of flu virus (although a large percentage if not most people can still fight it off without major illness).

The upper bound of 5% for US is just math.

What math? Do you think only the people sick enough to show up at hospitals (and get tested) get the flu in any given year? Most people don't go to hospital after getting exposed to the flu; most of them are not even symptomatic.

The ship theory you have is un-plausible speculation, just like your UV things. Alternative Reality.

LOL! UV light is literally what's used for disinfecting hospital operating rooms and for disinfecting the straws that you use when sipping soda drinks from fast-food joints and how bottled water is treated. Without UV disinfection, people would long have been sick from using straws and drinking bottled water (OTOH, a well known survival strategy is putting whatever river/lake water you find in a transparent bottled-water bottle and expose it to the summer Sun for at least 4-6 hours). Now UV light is used in most disinfection machines for cleaning N95 masks for re-use. UV light exposure kills virus (and bacteria), and that's how many vaccines are made: by irradiation-kill live virus using UV-lights. The long day-light part of the year (March through September) also allow the Sun's UV light to reach earth's surface at high latitudes after passing less miles of atomosphere and ozone layer, so the unit area UV intensity and daily UV energy at high latitude locations increase dramatically during the long day-light part of the year. Lab experiments already show that UV exposure (at normal sunlight intensity) drastically reduce virus half-life in air and on surfaces: by an order of magnitude. Guess what dead virii are? They are natural vaccines! As the human body's immune system recognize the surface protein of dead virii (which is exactly the same as the surface protein as the live virus), and build up immunity against it. If you don't believe the UV theory, you are in effect rejecting all vaccine theory.

The annual seasonal variation in surface UV intensity at high latitude locations is the reason behind the "Flu-Season."

The crooks paying you to propagandize and telling people to be locked in until there is a man-made vaccine, are essentially trying to make the government block out Sunlight in order to make it more profitable for candle-makers . . . just like in Frederic Bastiat's allegory centuries ago.

WookieMan says

So one test turned into two positive cases of COVID-19.

from a quick search

The accuracy of the current COVID-19 tests is not precisely known. Reasonable estimates, based on test performance in China and the performance of the influenza tests, are that the tests will correctly identify around 60 percent of the patients with the disease and correctly identify 90 percent of the patients that are disease-free.

So one in ten that tested negative is positive and four of ten who are positive test negative.

How is testing going to stop the spread? Will all untested people have to stay inside?

When did America give up on chicken soup to treat really bad colds?

Here's the paper I mentioned on another thread. Heard about it on the Darkhorse podcast last weekend. Bear in mind, it's about the influenza virus (not COVID-19), but does show the effect of simulated sunlight (UV) on an influenza aerosol. YMMV...
In darkness, the average decay constant was 0.02 ± 0.06 min-1, equivalent to a half-life of 31.6 minutes. However, at full intensity simulated sunlight, the mean decay constant was 0.29 ± 0.09 min-1, equivalent to a half-life of approximately 2.4 minutes. Conclusions: These results are consistent with epidemiological findings that sunlight levels are inversely correlated with influenza transmission, and they can be used to better understand the potential for the virus to spread under varied environmental conditions.

EBGuy says

Here's the paper I mentioned on another thread.

Stop with facts. 2M dead, 100k a day is where we're heading.... lol. Thanks for posting.

The flattening of the curve very much appears to be correlating to the sun moving north of the equator. You would have thought countries like Sweden would be hockey sticking it up right now.... There's also the fact it's a virus and once it kills what it can, it has a hard time existing in the future amongst the masses.

The fall is going to blow because there will be another uptick. I've already had 2 vacations cancelled because of the senior Wuhhan bat flu and scheduled for Costa Rica in October. Gonna be pissed if that gets shit canned.

ThreeBays says

They're not trending well. Deaths are increasing 10% per day compared to neighbor Norway's 1.3%.

🤦‍♀️ You still don't get it. This virus is going to kill who it's going to kill. We can't hide from it forever. No hospitals, in the US at least, are overwhelmed. Let's just get this over with and move on.

This is not remotely as deadly as some of the absurd models have forecasted. It's wiping out nursing homes here in the US and that's been the trend. Mostly in densely populated urban areas. Grandma was eventually going to die virus or not. I guess maybe some people haven't experienced much death in their life or are weak. Tough to figure out which it is.

ThreeBays says

Disagree. The imperial college model for the impact of full shutdown of non essential businesses and schools is surprisingly close to where we're landing.

You understand that basically sit down restaurants and arenas are closed in most states. That's the shut down. Everything else is wide open with a bunch of tape on the floor 6' apart with senior citizens zipping around in electric carts, half dead, wondering what's up. The ONLY thing I haven't been able to do is sit down, grab a burger and a beer or go to a sporting event/entertainment facility. Every other place is open...

I just went to Wisconsin today. I hit traffic. During a shut down? Not in IL cause the weather sucks, but kids are playing with each other all over the country. Amazon distribution center in Kenosha, WI packed. All drive through restaurants open. Gas stations. Fuck loads of road construction, seeing groups of engineers chatting about their project. Highway food/gas oasis' packed with drivers and employees at the restaurants. People are losing jobs, but we're not remotely near an actual shutdown.

There's barely a shut down, hence why the models are pure shit. Jazz just posted a video in another thread showing a woman that had her sister get misdiagnosed 5 times or something. The models are derived from these people misdiagnosing things or simply being shitty at their job. I think you know this is mostly bull shit and are just playing a game at this point. Having fun. Getting a reaction out of posting pure bulls shit.

Still only at 3 known cases of the menacing virus, ravaging the fuck out the world to the tune of 146k deaths as of this post in a world of ~7.7B people. 0.0001% of the worlds population has passed from this, many likely having cause of death misdiagnosed. Some in countries that haven't locked down or minimally so. This isn't what you think it is and you're believing lies. Sick of people freaking out and frankly being pussies.

Tim, you do realize the lies about every facet of Covid are as deep as Kim Kardashian's ass crack, right?

You think you know what the truth is? Prove it. You can't.

Question: are you sucking your thumb underneath your bed right now?

I'm not getting tested, and neither will most Americans. Those that don't understand what America is or what it is about, will bend over and drop their pants like little commie Fags.

The American adults, that can't be fucked around by Bill Gates, gets it, and sees this for what it is. It's a damn shame their are so many commie fags in America interloping always willing to drop their pants and take it up their commie asshole.

All of the lows have been broken by the low life scumbag Liberal fags. They are so fucking low, their ballsack scrapes the earths core when they walk.

HEYYOU says

The more dead RepCons the less stupid America will be.
All Rep Cons care about is about their own stupidity. Please suffer & die.

When liberals protest, the right condemned it. They shut down the freeway just because black people have been murdered by the state for hundreds of years! And god bless the nazis of Charleston, who bravely ran over those protesters there.

This is important stuff. Gotta get back to slacking for your corporations. Otherwise, how will you live paycheck to paycheck or fail to save for retirement?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/padding-numbers-michigan-begins-dumping-extra-presumed-cases-coronavirus-death-totals-like-new-york/

And of course there's lots of this!

Tim Aurora says

It points to one main thing, We need more Testing

This statement remains stupid as no alternative, no explanation of why, no explanation of cost, no explanation of what will be achieved, no explanation of what will happen if we test vs not testing, etc is ever included.

This is why lefties are dumb as fuck, even while blowing the we gotta beleive science bullshit horn. No introspection, no critics reading. Just repeating propaganda bleating out we need more tests.

Fuck the Washington Post and it’s stupid ass uninformed opinions.

I agree that more testing is required - then we would be able to see that corona has been with us since December, that most or at least a lot of people are asymptomatic, that death rate is rather low, and that panic and shutting everything down (other than old farts self-quarantining) was unnecessary.
Germany and S. Korea are testing a lot of people, and that perhaps is one reason why their death rates are low %-wise.

Tim Aurora says

t points to one main thing, We need more Testing

Have you always lived in fear?

WookieMan says

You still don't get it. This virus is going to kill who it's going to kill. We can't hide from it forever. No hospitals, in the US at least, are overwhelmed. Let's just get this over with and move on.

The number of people who will die from the virus is heavily dependent on how we respond to the situation. If stay-at-home orders are kept in place, far fewer people will die.

Already the virus has kllled 29,000 Americans. 3000 died in the 9/11 attacks. So this pandemic has already killed almost 10 times as many Americans. Would you say, "well the terrorists are going to kill who they are going to kills, so let's just get this over and move one?" Maybe you should just envision the covid virus as tiny Jihadists attacking America. Would that get you to take this pandemic seriously?

Arrrtggghggg!!!!

We all gonna die!!!!!

WaPo is asshoe!

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

Arrrtggghggg!!!!

We all gonna die!!!!!

Fuck this was true from the day we were born! The injustice!!

annoyed1 says

Already the virus has kllled 29,000 Americans. 3000 died in the 9/11 attacks. So this pandemic has already killed almost 10 times as many Americans. Would you say, "well the terrorists are going to kill who they are going to kills, so let's just get this over and move one?" Maybe you should just envision the covid virus as tiny Jihadists attacking America. Would that get you to take this pandemic seriously?

Actually no. Islam is a dumb religion, as they all are, but 9/11 was a nothing burger in the history of the world if you look at it on a per capita basis. It was a big deal because of the optics of it. The number of deaths look big for kung flu, but statistically this is still a nothing burger. By a long shot.

You're comparing one off events to something that happens every year called the flu. We already have 10's of thousands dying every year from the flu. You're comparing apples to testicles. This virus is gonna kill who it's gonna kill, with or without a vaccine. Apparently in some people's world we don't have flu deaths anymore.

There's no proof that we're preventing more deaths than we are creating through the response. Bat flu is winning in my sphere, but 1 suicide to 2 deaths from Wuhan sickness. Give it the rest of the month and you're going to see suicides and OD's spike bigly. But hey, they deserve to die too, even though the people that die from Covid still will with all this nonsense. Good choice. Let's just double it up instead of letting those that are close to death, just fucking die???

ThreeBays says

Coronavirus: Can it even be stopped?

Eventually the pandemic will run its course, but we have to change behavior to mitigate the damage. I don't think lifting the stay-at-home orders is a good thing. We don't have enough testing and we don't have a vaccine yet. Even when we do get a vaccine, dumb ass anti-vaccinators may not take it.

The borders should have been closed in every country as soon as the pandemic was detected. People returning to their home countries should have been kept in quarantine for two weeks. If we did this, covid would have only infected a few countries and humanitarian aid could have greatly mitigated the death toll and economic consequences. Unfortunately, we value money too much over safety and the well being of our fellow man. Greed is an epidemic's best friend.

Hopefully, this world will learn from this tragedy and take steps to prepare for the next pandemic. And yes, there will be a next one and eventually there will be one far bigger and more dangerous than covid. Unfortunately, our species is terrible at dealing with problems that are incredibly important but not urgent like

- pandemics before they happen
- drug resistant microbes
- climate change
- the threat of nuclear war
- asteroid impact

We should be dealing with all these existential threats now before it's too late.

- Fund anti-pandemic organizations
- Have enough capacity for the worst case scenario, not the most common one
- Don't oversubscribe anti-biotics
- Reduce pollution
- Slowly and steadily remove nuclear weapons and make their possession illegal for all countries with mandatory inspections
- Map out all large asteroids and come up with a plan to divert them. Test the plan by altering the course of an asteroid.

Our government has failed to do any of these things except for some nuclear arms reduction.

annoyed1 says

WookieMan says

You still don't get it. This virus is going to kill who it's going to kill. We can't hide from it forever. No hospitals, in the US at least, are overwhelmed. Let's just get this over with and move on.

The number of people who will die from the virus is heavily dependent on how we respond to the situation. If stay-at-home orders are kept in place, far fewer people will die.

Already the virus has kllled 29,000 Americans. 3000 died in the 9/11 attacks. So this pandemic has already killed almost 10 times as many Americans. Would you say, "well the terrorists are going to kill who they are going to kills, so let's just get this over and move one?" Maybe you should just envision the covid virus as tiny Jihadists attacking America. Would that get you to take this pandemic seriously?

That's a mostly invalid comparison because every year several hundred thousand people in the US, mostly elderly and some weak die of natural causes, which includes colds, flus, pneumoniae and various CVs. The death due to terrorism is close to zero. So a 3000 fold increase on 911 would equate to a plague that killed hundreds of millions of people in the US.

WookieMan says

9/11 was a nothing burger in the history of the world if you look at it on a per capita basis. It was a big deal because of the optics of it.

And yet we changed how we lived our lives greatly before it. An entire draconian act, the USA Patriot Act, was passed because of it. So taking some common sense measures to stop pandemics which are a far greater threat than terrorism ever could be, is quite reasonable.

WookieMan says

You're comparing one off events to something that happens every year called the flu.

There have been numerous discrediting of the notion that covid is a lesser threat than the flu. If it wasn't for social distancing and stay at home orders, covid would kill far more than the flu.

Furthermore, pandemics have to be taken seriously. In war you prepare for the worse case scenario, not the best one. You have to treat all epidemics as possible Black Deaths because you don't know which one will become that. People have such short memories. Just because there wasn't a pandemic in their lifetime, they don't take the threat seriously. They ignore history.

annoyed1 says

There have been numerous discrediting of the notion that covid is a lesser threat than the flu. If it wasn't for social distancing and stay at home orders, covid would kill far more than the flu.

This is true. The CDC numbers of infected/dead indicate a 4% mortality rate in the USA. That’s on par with the Spanish Flu.

Shaman says

annoyed1 says

There have been numerous discrediting of the notion that covid is a lesser threat than the flu. If it wasn't for social distancing and stay at home orders, covid would kill far more than the flu.

This is true. The CDC numbers of infected/dead indicate a 4% mortality rate in the USA. That’s on par with the Spanish Flu.

Sorry, we don't have remotely the slightest clue how many people are or have been infected. The death rate is a complete guessing game because of that. Even with the current data, there's not a chance with modern medicine that this will get close to the Spanish flu. We'd need 5M dead by now at minimum. Per capita, compared to other outbreaks this really is the flu.

We're overall going to end up with less deaths during this period because there will be less car accidents, less work injuries, etc. That's all social distancing is doing. It's not stopping an airborne virus. Has anyone not been outside or to the store? No one is listening to the "orders" besides the big event people/businesses and restaurants. Grocery store and gas stations have been packed every time I've been out.

It's a little scary how quickly people can be manipulated. And even if it's not manipulation, the fear of death apparently is stronger than I thought. The end is the same for everyone, not sure how you're going to change that. People die from changing a lightbulb on a ladder. Do we just get rid of lights and ladders?

WookieMan says

Shaman says

annoyed1 says

There have been numerous discrediting of the notion that covid is a lesser threat than the flu. If it wasn't for social distancing and stay at home orders, covid would kill far more than the flu.

This is true. The CDC numbers of infected/dead indicate a 4% mortality rate in the USA. That’s on par with the Spanish Flu.

Sorry, we don't have remotely the slightest clue how many people are or have been infected. The death rate is a complete guessing game because of that. Even with the current data, there's not a chance with modern medicine that this will get close to the Spanish flu. We'd need 5M dead by now at minimum. Per capita, compared to other outbreaks this really is the flu.

We're overall going to end up with less deaths during this period because there will be less ...

The death rate is around 0.5%, given 20% have been infected easily, on par with a serious flu season.