patrick.net

ThreeBays says

1) It was done so as not to overwhelm hospitals, since nobody knew where the curve will actually peak. With less isolation we would have peaked higher. Recall it's not only the base fatality rate that's the issue, but also the # of people that need hospitalization or they'll die as well.

2) Maximal suppression was used to reduce the number of cases so that testing & contact-tracing can be viable.

Testing & contact-tracing is likely the game changer here. The R spread is still pretty high (0.9) with the lockdown in NY. Reopening the economy will quickly push it over 1.0 and restart the epidemic. If contact tracing can identify even 25% of cases, that's enoiugh to let us get to R 1.3 and still have a dropping curve.

Those over-simplified calculations make two erroneous assumptions:

1. The virus is genetically stable and not mutating (which is not the case for an RNA virus, which the Corona Virus is);

2. The entire population is naive (in epidemiology, it means people having never been exposed to the virus or the immune system has entirely forgotten the virus), and will become naive again the moment after being tested positive (i.e. the virus never triggers any immunal response or memory). Otherwise, the R number quickly drops towards zero as the entire population gets exposed to it quickly!

BTW, the focus on making R less than 1 through lock-down is a little like the old Stalinistic saying: one death is tragedy, but a million deaths is only a statistic. R<1 doesn't mean individuals don't get infected or get severely ill or even dying; it just means the total number of getting sick at the same time is lower, which is a meaningless statistic in terms of how many people die from it eventually . . . and outright dangerous when facing a rapidly mutating virus if the time line is stretched out!

As mutations take place, if the society is locked down whereas the hospitals are not, the most deadly mutations getting higher probability of spreading (getting extra opportunity to spread when they land the human in hospitals then spread to other people there) than the less deadly mutations (that leave people healthy therefore locked down), the lock-down of society prevents people from early exposure to small quantities of new mutations and instead force them to face more deadly mutations for the first time at high viral load at hospitals or at homes with hospital workers (i.e. for an entire night instead of short casual exposure in normal social settings). That makes the lock-down policy (while not locking down hospitals) a homicidal policy.

Not that I trust the Swiss to rule against Global NGO bodies like the WHO and NIH who have derided the combination, even though their opinion is a direct conflict of interest for their agenda.
But the Swiss are going to do a 450 trial. Hopefully they will be fair and forthcoming with the groups at different progression of the virus.
As the Doctors who have treated them in the field have described. For the most part it's been successful before people are at the point they need incubation or ventilators.
It breaks their Fever and they turn around within 4 hours. These Doctors patients weren't all 350lb diabetic patients with an ear inflection.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/swiss-pharm-co-wins-fda-approval-start-hydroxychloroquine-clinical-trials-u-s/?ff_source=Twitter&ff_medium=PostTopSharingButtons&ff_campaign=websitesharingbuttons

logic says

Did you bother to click on the links to the supporting articles? It's not hard.

When it looks like dog shit ;) You can pretty much count on it w/o opening it and taking a smell by just reading the dog shit you wrote.

jazz_music says

TRUMP READY TO PROFIT FROM HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE

Trying to profit from hydroxychloroquine is like trying to make a profit off from aspirin or ibuprofen. It's a generic drug. Unless there's a cartel made (which is possible today, DOJ doesn't do its job or enforce the law with regard to cartels today) there's no way to make a profit off from investment in a generic drug.

It's like investing in Charmin knowing that soon, there's going to be a toilet paper shortage.

jazz_music says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/counties-where-hannity-viewers-outnumber-tucker-carlsons-have-had-more-covid-19-deaths-study-finds/ar-BB130iVe

Right, because corporate "news" is credible. Let's see... http://www.msn.com:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/analysis-instead-of-no-collusion-trump-now-seems-to-be-saying-so-what-if-i-did/ar-AAHJKSe

It's propaganda at worst, mindless entertainment at best, but it's not information.

Oh and this:

jazz_music says

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/hannity-limbaugh-trump-coronavirus.html

Find that weapons of mass destruction program in Iraq yet?

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/08/world/threats-responses-iraqis-us-says-hussein-intensifies-quest-for-bomb-parts.html

Anything that is called "mainstream news" in the United States is propaganda or just pure made up BS, and has been for 20 years solid. Stop quoting them unless you have an actual source that can be shown to have a credible track record.

Here's the working paper that msn cited:

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_202044.pdf

Go read it, and try to come to the same conclusions msn did and keep in mind it's a "working paper" and check their sources, and ignore anything that is a "source" from mainstream news, and not a journal that's gone through peer review.

jazz_music says

richwicks says

Anything that is called "mainstream news" in the United States is propaganda

Except Fox, Limbaugh, Breibart, etc?

If so, I live on a completely differently planet

No, ALL of it is propaganda.

Find that weapons of mass destruction program in Iraq that Fox news was promoting back in 2002? We couldn't wait for the final proof to come in the form of a mushroom cloud - RIGHT?

At worst, it's propaganda, at best, it's mindless bullshit, but there is no information at all from "mainstream news" or what Wikipedia calls "reliable sources".

The United States doesn't have an actual news media system, and hasn't for 20 years - at least.

If you want to know what is going on, talk to people in other nations (everybody has the Internet, but remember they can be just as uniformed as you are, so keep your mouth shut and just listen, be polite by telling them what you've been told - don't present it as absolute fact because it isn't) or you can pay for it and you will pay a decent price for up to date actual information, not a $100 a year for a subscription, it will be thousands.

You can also spend years finding out who isn't full of crap, but it's tedious and time consuming, because there are a ton of propagandists, outright lunatics, and outright liars getting their 15 seconds of fame. Some people just want to tell you the truth, but you will NEVER see them in a "reliable source". "Anonymous source" means they were just made up, "expert" - check who they are on the board of directors of - often experts are just ex-generals. It's not a problem of finding out who to trust, it's finding out who not to trust, and that's the vast majority.

You are still in the delusion "duh left" opposes "duh right". They are controlled by the same group, they tell different stories, but they both lie. The left and the right are both pro war. Can't leave Syria they claim - but why not? What is the mission there? What's the mission in Afghanistan? We are still at war there, what is the objective? Nobody in all of the corporate "news" media tells you - you are wasting your time listening to them.

richwicks says

flag

What the fuck is this?

when we proposed making things in the US, Obama said, those jobs aren't coming back

Hi @richwicks

Some people abuse the flag system. Trying to remove their permission to use it.

Sorry about that.

Patrick says

Hi @richwicks

Some people abuse the flag system. Trying to remove their permission to use it.

Sorry about that.

At least notify the poster as to who "flagged" it.

You want to know how to correct this? Mark a post as flagged, and allow the reader to see it if they engage in an action - at least let them know it's a flagged post and who flagged it - but let them see it if they chose. Let them decide if they want to ignore flags of the user. You have a guy talking about hookers and sex dolls here FFS. I generally keep to politics and I'm generally polite and explain my position.

I'm being censored, not being "flagged". Who flagged me? What dishonest censor flagged me?

logic says

Did you bother to click on the links to the supporting articles? It's not hard.

There are links upon links of bull shit regarding this "pandemic" that are provably wrong. Just let us know the narrative you believe is religion and we can move on from these senseless comments and posts. Groundhog Day was not a good movie...

jazz_music says

richwicks says

You are still in the delusion "duh left" opposes "duh right". They are controlled by the same group, they tell different stories, but they both lie.

I’m not the subject and you don’t discern the difference between sources/targets of lies and conspiracy from those who are competing for ratings and verifiably stopping short of making shit up every day.

We've done this a while now. You are the OP. People are going to attack and fight your opinion if they disagree. By default you are the topic when you post this:

jazz_music says

Laura Ingraham called Hydroxycholoquine the Lazarus pill --then believers die in Droves.

TRUMP READY TO PROFIT FROM HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/07/donald-trump-gets-millions-of-hydroxychloroquine-pills-from-india/

Time to love the truth buddy ...

OR DIE NOW.

What do you expect the reaction to be?? It's a forum. It's generally A or B. Agree or disagree for the most part. You had a user disagree with you and I didn't see a single personal remark in his comment. Do you come here expecting everyone to agree with your vision of the world? That's not realistic. I've had my views changed on many topics here, from people that it would appear I dislike. Have an open mind.

jazz_music says

I don’t when it comes to personal abuse for rejecting cult lore.

No one abused you though. There's a difference between being critical and personal.

You're entitled to feel the way you want, but the comment shouldn't have been flagged. I've agreed and disagreed with many users here. A lot recently that I may have agreed with in the past. I like your posts in the music thread. We can all exist together and not be so dramatic. It is possible.

jazz_music says

If you flip the subject to personal attack I will flag you every time fuck everyone who doesn’t like it.

What personal attack? Quote my "personal attack". I know basic logic and I don't engage in ad-hominem. I want to know what you think in order to judge if I'm wrong, and I want you to know what I think, so you MIGHT consider you are wrong. We can both be wrong of course. I honestly want to know if I'm incorrect. I'll adjust immediately when shown to be wrong and that's happened a lot, to such an extent, it's now noticeably more rare.

If I'm incorrect about my assessment about my (incorrect) belief of your thinking, correct me, but people do follow patterns. I'm not saying I'm above being propagandized, but I know I'm not, that gives me an advantage over 99% of the population - just being aware I can be swayed by it. You accused me of being a Fox news, Limbaugh, and Breitbart drone. I'm not, and I corrected you on that. You consider it a personal attack when I think you have binary thinking in this regard. All corporate news is useless, it's not information. At very best it's entertainment, and at worst, it's just propaganda.

jazz_music says

richwicks says

Find that weapons of mass destruction program in Iraq yet?

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/08/world/threats-responses-iraqis-us-says-hussein-intensifies-quest-for-bomb-parts.html

There’s no lie there.

The straight up lies setting up America for war over nukes came from Fox every day.

Yeah, I know. I agree with you completely. Fox news was called Faux News for a reason.

jazz_music says

Everything is another excuse to shovel trillions of dollars to the banks now and the biggest tax evaders too. Socialism for the rich only. The people get crumbs at best just to quiet them down because we are not feared. GOP has passed horrible punishments against people who protest publicly.

And who in the "mainstream media" objects? Who is against this in our corporate propaganda?

I don't know if you favor socialism or not, but if there is more socialism, it's people like George W. Bush and Barack Obama that determines how the money is spent. Give the government $1.00 for education, and you get $0.05 back to implement it the rest is stolen along the way.

You might think corporations are evil, and they absolutely can be, but you aren't forced to pay them - but with government, that's a monopoly. Comcast F'ed me over, guess who I don't do business with as a result? My government has F'ed me over, I still pay taxes.

logic says

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

Facts would be nice. Fiction based left opinion, not so much.

Did you bother to click on the links to the supporting articles? It's not hard.

Then it’s also not hard for you to research and put into your own words while linking to your evidence.

Your article is political propaganda. A pile of bullshit.

How’s them apples for you?

jazz_music says

If you want assess people negatively you can make your own post

I am going to point out that your stated reason for flagging me is something you did first. I don't expect you to think about that, but if you chose, you can think about that. We are all hypocritical to some extent.

With regard to the original poster, I pointed out the sources in the cited report are not reliable. From what I saw, and I did not go through all of it, it was all from mainstream "news" references - this is not research. It's not real research at all. I'm telling you regardless of whether you believe me, the United States doesn't have a free, honest press. It doesn't have actual investigative journalists. Our news media is more like Pravda and Izvestia of the USSR in 1985 than the US news system of the US was. There is no truth, there is no news. Its now effecting research.

It's all BS. It's been this way for decades. You've not seen that weapons of mass destruction program in Iraq yet and you've not seen that Russian Collusion yet. They're just lies. Syria and Libya were other types of lies. When a Democrat is in power, it's for "humanitarian reasons" but it's a lie. Republicans sell war as a way to protect against a threat, Democrats sell war for "humanitarian reasons". If Gore were president in 2000 (and he probably won the election with those hanging chads) the US would have attacked Iraq because Saddam Hussein was a very bad man that we erroneously supported in the 1980's and we needed to correct our mistake. It would have had the same result, but the Democratic peons would have supported it, and the Republican peons would have opposed it.

You need to realize that the only difference between the leadership of the left and right, are the lies they tell to get your support. They do the same thing, but tell you different lies about why they are doing it. It's just a criminal syndicate. All reasons you are given are propaganda. We never go to war for the reasons that are stated.

logic says

So, do you trust any media?

Fk no, none of it, unless I can personally verify to some reasonable degree... I free range.... both sides come in from the yard with dog shit on their shoes
and stink to high heaven. Your points I have studied enough and am able to confidently call B S on the premise of what you are trying to pump as truth.

jazz_music says

richwicks says

If I'm incorrect about my assessment about my (incorrect) belief of your thinking

The subject is spelled out in the OP along with 5 or so variations.

I’m done talking about this

If you want assess people negatively you can make your own post

How am I "assessing people negatively"?

This is another trick in a debate - this is called a strawman.

But I'm not in a debate and neither are you. If I'm incorrect, explain how I'm incorrect. I do not want to stupidly win an argument. I may very well be wrong, but you have to explain how I am otherwise I will not see how I am wrong. There is no shame in being incorrect in my opinion, there is shame in continuing a misconception when you realize it is though.

I'm extremely pliable in that I will readily agree when I'm error but I need to understand when and how I'm wrong.

I do not think less of you because I think you are incorrect. We all have infinite ignorance, I just think you lack knowledge, which is not a personal failure in any way. Having said that, it could be ME, that has a lack of knowledge. I cannot know unless you show me to be incorrect.

When our number 1 disease expert Dr. Fauci claiming this wasn't a danger to Americans on Jan 24th...the experts were not prepared for this. And was it their fault? No. China deliberately withheld information.

richwicks says

How an I "assessing people negatively"?

You didn't. It's a trend, hence Patrick's comment #12.

You're fighting a losing battle in the sense you're not going to change other people. You can keep trying, but you're not the first to go down this path here. It's unfortunate some cannot see their flaws and admit they were wrong. But hey, what are you gonna do?

The apparent source of the article:

former Obama administration officials said.

Everybody else was unnamed.

According to sources familiar with my Dong, it's 12" long and women find it irresistible.

Those former ex-girlfriends claiming it's smaller than their clitoris are biased.

M134 armed labradoodle cannibal anarchy - the final solution.

logic says

NoCoupForYou says

The apparent source of the article:

Still the fact remains, Trump is the President. Being the president he is ultimately responsible. I believe in top down leadership. Just as Obama is ultimately responsible for the fuck ups of his administrations response to the swine flu (do note economy not shut down) so to is Trump responsible for the response or lack thereof his administration.

Who knows if Trump was handed a pandemic response Playbook. If he was and he ignored it that just makes his response that much worse.

Based on the sentiment and statements from the EU and WHO, Trump was ahead of them on the "pandemic response". Some other countries were even better. Like New Zealand.

WookieMan says

You're fighting a losing battle in the sense you're not going to change other people.

Oh, that's absolutely not true.

Some people are mindless cultists, some are blatant propagandists, but they are generally rare. In either case, if you cannot communicate with somebody, you can at least point out why they make that impossible.

jazz_music appears to be a mindless cultist uninterested in whether he's incorrect, willing to censor when people disagree with him, because he knows he's wrong. That's an awful state to be in. That's a losing battle and some people fight it for a lifetime.

jazz_music says

The people get crumbs at best just to quiet them down

And yet they all have the latest smart phone and have enough food to become obese.

Tim Aurora says

flag
   
 

I am an immigrant who travels to 10 different countries and have family in 3 different nations. They all agree that Trump is stupid

That says more about your family than Trump.

Woof

We are going to need mass civil disobedience to escape this.

He is there to throw a bucket of water on Putin and Trump in case of penis captivus. Wouldn't want a PutinDoodle in the White House.

I’m taking my kids to the beach this weekend. Fuck quarantine!

Shaman says

I’m taking my kids to the beach this weekend. Fuck quarantine!

Bring a film crew so we can see when the lifeguards tase your kids for not maintaining social distance.

Be safe. There are a lot of people out there who are willing to hurt you in order to protect you.

Most US hospitals are so empty that they are having financial difficulties.

The COVID-19 fatality rate is reasonably similar to the flu, judging by the recent NY state numbers. Probably identical, if you subtract out the fatalities in the sick, elderly population. In fact, the flu is deadlier in children. COVID-19 is probably deadlier in the elderly population, who have no immunity to the virus, and cannot develop immunity due to their age. This population has residual immunity to the flu that they developed when younger with functional immune systems.

Oddly enough, we are acting to prevent the development of immunity by locking people down. And preventing the future elderly from having immunity when they get to that stage.

Our leaders are elderly imbeciles.

willywonka says

Oddly enough, we are acting to prevent the development of immunity by locking people down. And preventing the future elderly from having immunity when they get to that stage.

Our leaders are elderly imbeciles.

Truth.

If they are testing positive, but showing no symptoms, why is this a problem?