patrick.net

marcus says

The baby boom. Not just the upcoming cost of their retirement, but also the fact that so many boomers haven’t saved enough, so they won’t be consuming with gusto any time soon.

I wouldn't so much worry about baby boomers. They mostly bought property and was able to refinance at a low interest rate. Their social security checks will cover them if they aren't rich from this real estate situation already. The ones needing to sell and downgrade were probably irresponsible and probably took out HELOCs. They do not need to sell. They rather let their kids inherit it.

I think in the next couple of years, prices may drop another 10% or so and a whole mass of buyers will come forward and drive prices up. This cycle will keep continuing. It may get back down to 1998 levels. But not in my lifetime. That's why I'm trying to buy now.

schmitz_kris says

As I indicated in my post above, currency markets move on fundamental and technical principles, not by random chance. Sorry.

Of course they do--but in order to make money, you have to be able to predict the future better than everyone else. So, unless you have a crystal ball then you are almost guaranteed to lose in the long run.

From where do you get all of these fallacious, preconceived notions? Trading has nothing to do with crystal balls, and I hate the phrase "predict the future." Life is logical, ordered and is based on cause and effect. If it gets dark and stormy outside you can reasonably expect the likelihood of rain to increase. If you eat food that contains unnatural trans fatty acids you can reasonably expect the permeability of your cell membranes to be altered negatively. Like Gerald Celente says, "present events form future trends." As intelligence increases the connection between present events and probability of future outcomes becomes more apparent.

I honestly do not even know what my accuracy rate is (would take too long to do the calculation considering the number of years I have used my methodology), but I do know that based on my stop loss and take profit levels, which are fixed except in the case of sudden market reversal movements (perhaps 5-10% of the time - I trade on a 1 HR chart/timeframe so such movements are subjective/my experienced opinions), I can be incorrect/wrong 66% of the time and still be profitable.

You're sitting at home on a workday too, tatupu. Are you a trader (albeit with a very different philosophy than my own)?

schmitz_kris says

From where do you get all of these fallacious, preconceived notions? Trading has nothing to do with crystal balls, and I hate the phrase “predict the future.” Life is logical, ordered and is based on cause and effect. If it gets dark and stormy outside you can reasonably expect the likelihood of rain to increase. If you eat food that contains unnatural trans fatty acids you can reasonably expect the permeability of your cell membranes to be altered negatively. Like Gerald Celente says, “present events form future trends.” As intelligence increases the connection between present events and probability of future outcomes becomes more apparent.

My point is that you don't make money by betting on rain tomorrow after it gets dark and stormy outside. Because everyone knows this and it is immediately built into the price. You only make money when you realize that it's going to rain when it's still clear and sunny outside. And a crystal ball helps immensely for that kind of work.

No. The market has usually already moved slightly (but sometimes markedly and sometimes substantially) before I get an entry signal via my methodology. I don't predict any future - I FOLLOW what I believe to be newly-formed/ing trends.

The fact that you mentioned the phrase "predict the future" is indicative of a masculine thought pattern. You want TO TAKE, TO SEIZE, TO REIGN IN. This is natural for males. Something like 95%+ of traders are males, and something like 90-95% of them lose over time. Markets, however, are of the natural world (emotions) and have a femenine nature and do not move in a way males inherently understand. One of the best mentors I had was a woman in Africa. She was the best I have EVER seen, and I have seen a lot. I soon realized it was her femenine thought processes that helped her trading, and I fought my natural male instincts while trading and instead adopted hers. The change in my trading was pretty much instantaneous.

u know, I thought u were going to post the hitler one, and guess what, I was right!

Very funny, thanks for sharing.

justme says

Good stuff, thomas.wong.
Imagine that, only 241 publicly traded companies left in Silicon Valley

241 was at the end of 2008, factor in since then... much much lower and still falling.

Monday morning and another one bites the dust.

Dell to buy storage provider 3Par for $1.13B

Pretty sure some in the valley will either get a one way ticket to Round Rock, Tx or get cut.
I hope some around here know what 1991 was like. If not, your in for a heck of a ride!

Vain says

It may get back down to 1998 levels. But not in my lifetime. That’s why I’m trying to buy now.

Dont count it out yet.... crap changes here really fast!

thunderlips11 says

He was buying things yielding 10% at 30 cents on the dollar from all types of bankrupt financial institutions knowing which bond holders were going to get bailed out. He also listed the bonds to avoid that he knew weren’t going to get bailed out

Then this might be of interest:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-front-run-fed-best-em

Yeah, but we don't have bonds of Citigroup and AIG priced at pennies on the dollar to buy up anymore.

This was the first Downfall parody video I ever saw; years ago, before I knew about the original movie. I loved it; the part where he says "I should hold a big sign over my head that says 'Idiot'!" is perfect!

thunderlips11 says

Can always take advantage of the market is US Treasuries though.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=d1

You are talking aout making a few %. This guy bought bonds with a 10% yield for 25 cents on the dollar. After they got bailed out, they were worth 100 cents on the dollar and still have their 10% yield. He instantly made 400% and collects is still getting 10 cents each year on the dollar. The bond holders of these institutions should have gotten completely wiped out. Instead, they got rewarded. The privileged Wall St. elite came in and snatched up the bond despite the fact they were worthless because they had info that your average investor didn't have access to. Uncle Sam errrr... Uncle Ben and Uncle Timmy came in and made guaranteed that these clowns got rich. They were probably the same jokers who loaded up on Put options the week before Bear went belly up.

mikey says

I pee in the woods.

So do I. But I'm a bear.

Oh and I'm a bear on the economy for the short-term (next 1-3 years) and a bull on the long-term (10 years out.)

I believe we're going to have another recession shortly and then things should bottom out and ride at a level pace for about 5-10 years. Once all of the crap that's out there that has no justification for existing (no real value behind it) falls out of the economy, we'll see the economy become more efficient again. This is assuming we are moving toward greater regulation and taxing the rich at higher rates to even things out. If we don't restore a more level playing field in our economy I see bigger and more drastic erosion of our economic health as a country and would become bearish on the long term.

Trying to front run the fed on treasuries is pointless. It's akin to trying to loot the Titanic while it's on its way down. There's no point. Simply buying and holding gold has easily outperformed that strategy, and also, it requires much less thought/work.

Nomograph says

schmitz_kris says

Americans are spoiled, entitled. They want their free money/wealth/lifestyle, and they want it NOW.

schmitz_kris says

I trade forex from home using an algorithm I invented. That’s why I’m on the computer (and thus various forums) so darn much. I plan on being retired within 5-7 years or so.

Oh great. Another pimply-faced wanna-be day trading doofus who thinks he’s gonna retire in 5 years by punching a few keystrokes instead of actually working.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, you have the gall to call OTHER people lazy and stupid?
I hope you have a plan B. You’re gonna need it.

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus.

I'd like to note that I feel prices now are about right in comparison with interest rates. If interest rates rise back to 8%, we'll see near 1998 prices.

But interest rates won't move. So we're stuck getting higher mortgages, and paying more property tax. There is no prospect of refinancing for a nice savings in the future in this market. It also renders your downpayment useless at these interest rates unless you're talking about 100's of thousands.

:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U

US Real Estate Home prices adjusted for inflation plotted as a roll.er coast.er

They don't need to confiscate it anymore.

Gold is rarely used these days, unlike during the GD when it was actually not unheard of to be seen in daily use. All they have to do is tax the hell out of it (ie. 90%) when sold and that would achieve a similar effect.

theoakman says

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus

I knew lots of trading geniuses in the late 90's.

thunderlips11 says

theoakman says

thunderlips11 says

Can always take advantage of the market is US Treasuries though.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=d1

You are talking aout making a few %. This guy bought bonds with a 10% yield for 25 cents on the dollar. After they got bailed out, they were worth 100 cents on the dollar and still have their 10% yield. He instantly made 400% and collects is still getting 10 cents each year on the dollar.

Oh, I’m sure nobody is going to make Paulsson bank. But hey, guaranteed profit is profit!

Good threads. I think a lot of people miss the point. They aren't going to hyperinflate for some school theory about QE or Keynesian economics but simply because they have to to keep the bubble afloat. If you had a confederacy where you could dump all your losses then you'd be a rock star gambler. And get fat bonus checks to boot! That is what it is and why they have to continue to act to keep the bubble-o-nomics going. Keynes and QE and other folderol is just cover chat. Its the black hole for losses they really are after. You don't have to invest well when Uncle Sam guarantees profits.

MarkInSF says

theoakman says

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus

I knew lots of trading geniuses in the late 90’s.

I got pretty much out of stocks 8 to 9 months ago when I incorrectly forecasted a rise in Natural Gas prices but still made 20% on all the plays I made on that forecast. Most traders I know would come up with some sort of explanation as to why they were right rather than simply admit they got lucky.

I don't know if I'm a bear or a bull. I trust one of the regulars to place me in the correct ecosystem.

So Geitner is just Ranger Smith?
And all then houses are de pick-a-nick baskets?

Generally when I think bull or bear I think people screaming 7000! or 14000!

There is also a group here, which believes we're recovering but there are going to be up's and down's from here but neither a major bull nor major bear market will be seen for at least a couple of years.

@Bap33 if you're not sure where you fit, I would then put you into the above category.

You're either SURE it's going to 7K or you're sure it's going to 14K or you're sure it's not going to do much..

ARMageddon has been deferred until further notice. Who said you can't get blood from a stone.

6. Come to terms with current home prices and realize that "Don't 1099 Me Bro" expires at the end of 2012.

I am sure ... without doubt ... that it is all going to slide down for as long as the bandaids make it take (maybe 4 months, maybe 3 years), and will remain at a true bottom for no less than 10 years. What does that make me?

Bap33 says

What does that make me

I would hope it makes you out of the market.

I guess if were talking just RE over the next 12 months, you can put me firmly in the bearish camp.

Long term, I think we're looking some similarities to Japan due to a fundamentally broken financial system, which has been papered over going on 2 years now, and not a single shred of political will evident to change that. This is not just another business cycle. We've got lots of advantages they don't have though, so it's not likely to drag on for decades.

The bottom in California will remain 2009.

Interesting bit from Barry Ritholtz's TBP re. the Appraisal Institute’s 16th Annual Summer Conference:

During the session, Bruce Norris (The Norris Group)-who is considered to be a top authority on the Southern California real estate market-shared some intriguing insights. He believes the region is in an artificial market and is concerned about the shadow inventory that could flood the market, forcing prices even lower. However, this isn’t the shadow inventory of bank-owned homes you may have heard about; he refers to all the houses that may yet go into foreclosure. The problem will vary by region, but referring to Riverside County in Southern California, Norris presented some pretty alarming statistics

• 23% of prime borrowers are not making payments

• 47% of non-prime borrowers are not making payments

• 90% of properties are upside down on value-to-loan (60% owe more than

150% of value)

Many borrowers haven’t made a payment in more than two years and have yet to receive a Notice of Default.

These numbers are frightening when considering the inventory that may come into the market in the next few years. Norris added that lenders and the federal government have slowed the foreclosure process to prevent a further deterioration of housing prices. But this artificial slowing of foreclosures belies the fact that there are still major waves of residential mortgage defaults on the horizon. It will be interesting to see if this policy plays out for the best or backfires and causes another flood of foreclosure properties into the market . . .

I'm a bear. I understand the basic premise of sentiment when it comes to investing. However, like every other investment indicator it is not 100% dependable. If it were we could all use it and become rich, which itself defies the very principle of sentiment- the minority can't make the majority rich. But I would say that many here aren't participants in the market, which is a prerequisit to be included in a sentiment calculation.
Therefore what is the true sentiment of the housing market? Investers? What do you think? I would guess currently, at least by the comments I've read here that by and large people are fairly positive in at least the not too distant future and beyond. Is this really negative sentiment and the investor class is full speed ahead? Or are these folks really small-time poseurs catching knives the banks are dropping on them? Ask yourselves why banks are not lending and guys like Bill Gross want the gov to guarantee all the bonds for housing. Doesn't exactly sound like confidence to me.

So you don't think that a Black community leader would be in the right to tell young black men, to leave those fat white women alone, all they want to do is get knocked up by as many partners as they can find. Then pin child support payments on them as well as collect government assistance.

Some how as a white guy, that wouldn't bother me one least bit. Something tells me, I don't think the media would say a word either.

But if a white person said the same thing to fat white women to leave those black guys alone....

Whoa brother we'd hear about it from every talking head from NY to CA.

There's not a race problem in America there's a free speech problem.

Everyone has it, but whites.

So don't listen to her, I DON"T or anyone like her.
I don't listen to radio talk show hosts period, unless they were the only thing on and I'm driving.
But I can still turn the dial if I don't like what is being said. And when that happens, it's the things being said that I don't like, not the talk show host as a person.
And there's no Moralism in Radio.

Bubbles will continue to deflate.

There is no such thing as free speech in the media when you have sponsors. Rule number one is to never offend ethnic groups because America if filled with ethnicities that are potential paying customers who fatten corporate bottom lines.
The real problem is we have a president who is only half black. We need a real black president, maybe a Zulu or something. Remember that Idi Amin guy? Now that's black with a vengeance. Alas, guys like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson look uncomfortably hispanic in comparison. By jiminy, they even have freckles.

The next year is far too small of a sample. We're likely to see a bumpy ride of ups and downs, and data that doesn't make a lot of sense, with 1 quarter showing good results, and the next poor. Most likely it will be varying data sources which will create panic as if we're heading up fast, or heading down quickly.

Good bye to fetid festering rubbish! Good riddance, I say!

Now if only we could get rid of the fat slob addicted to oxy and the raving madman who converted to Mormonism, we'd clear the airwaves of a whole bunch of hate.

thunderlips11 says

And her employer/contracted party has the right to terminate her contract if they think her mouth is hurting their business, because she’s on their airwaves, on their time, on their dime. That’s free enterprise.

Yeah, and conservatives like free enterprise, so long as they're able to keep all the spoils. When it works against them, they rant, gnash their teeth, and demand corporate welfare and tax breaks from the gummint to save them. Now she's eligible for unemployment.

So wait, they drop her mortgage balance down to $480K, but then she has a $220K extra lien on the house that she doesn't have to pay on? Is that how it works?

Welcome to debt slavery! LOL! I would walk and take the credit hit.