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36971   wave9x   2013 Sep 9, 3:08am  

I browsed Craigslist this morning, and it does appear as if price-to-rent is favoring renting (by a lot) at this point. Examples on the Peninsula:

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/4052565647.html
$5k/mo but would sell for $1.7m at least

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/4051250832.html
$4.5k/mo but would sell for $1.4m at least

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/4043747810.html
$4.5k/mo but would sell for $1.6m at least

I'm not sure I would buy a place today, unless I really, really wanted to own my house for reasons other than financial.

36972   casandra   2013 Sep 9, 3:12am  

Such and easy way to tell the state of our workforce. How come it took so long for me to see or hear of these figures.

36973   dublin hillz   2013 Sep 9, 3:30am  

25.2 would be the ratio is this case in terms of annual rents. Problem is as follows - $54,000 needs to be forked over in rent. Not very wise to do that it my opinion. Better to buy a cheaper property with under 20 annual rents ratio.

36974   zzyzzx   2013 Sep 9, 5:26am  

Call it Crazy says

Can only mean one thing... There will be 30% MORE cash buyers...

Or less buyers....

It certainly means less Wells Fargo employees.

36975   JH   2013 Sep 9, 5:49am  

wave9x says

I browsed Craigslist this morning, and it does appear as if price-to-rent is favoring renting (by a lot) at this point. Examples on the Peninsula:

Haha, these prices are an absolute joke. That 3rd posting is a piece of shit house that is not on a million dollar lot. The only shred of hope that bulls are holding onto is that Asian cash is going to come in. Give me one good reason that an Asian with 1.5 million cash would waste it on this joke. And don't say proximity to jobs, because an Asian with 1.5 million cash is not looking for a job.

dublin hillz says

Problem is as follows - $54,000 needs to be forked over in rent. Not very wise to do that it my opinion.

Waste of money, I agree.

36976   JH   2013 Sep 9, 8:12am  

donjumpsuit says

Personally, if I am doing the math.

I would rather buy a $350k house with 10% mortgage

than a

$700k house with a 3.5% mortgage.

#1. I don't pay some loser an over inflated amount for a house because the monthly is more affordable.

#2. At least with a 10% mortgage I get a tax break AND lower property taxes.

WAKE THE FUCK UP.

Yes then you can refi when the rates drop. Can't refi when you start at 3%

36977   JH   2013 Sep 9, 8:13am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

JH says

Give me one good reason that an Asian with 1.5 million cash would waste it on this joke.

Because they were told by the realtor that it will be valued at 2.5m in a few years. Then another fool comes and buys for 2.5m because he was told it will go to 4.0m, etc. etc. Sounds like a ponzi scheme to me. Don't look for real value, because that isn't part of the scheme. If people believe they will make money, then they will risk their fortune to get it. It is a American dream.

Yes this drives investment bubbles. It is not sustainable, however...

36978   swebb   2013 Sep 9, 8:37am  

The data is very noisy, so it doesn't make sense to focus on the most recent down leg. Egads is asking a fair question by making a year on year comparison, which at least addresses the variability from seasonal factors. If you do YOY comparisons for any of the months represented, you will see that 2013 is better than 2012 in every case. More historical data would be useful in determining what the seasonal patterns are.

The question I have is why is the withholding (black line) so noisy while the wage disbursement is a lot smoother. I'm sure there is a reason...

36979   Dan8267   2013 Sep 9, 8:40am  

donjumpsuit says

Personally, if I am doing the math.

I would rather buy a $350k house with 10% mortgage

than a

$700k house with a 3.5% mortgage.

#1. I don't pay some loser an over inflated amount for a house because the monthly is more affordable.

#2. At least with a 10% mortgage I get a tax break AND lower property taxes.

WAKE THE FUCK UP.

To clarify, he means buying a $X house at $350k rather than at $700k. Just because the house is priced at $700k doesn't make it worth that much.

36980   HEY YOU   2013 Sep 9, 9:34am  

If lazy assholes would get 2nd & 3rd part time jobs, we could pay off the national debt,fund SS,Medicare & DOD for 100 years & cut taxes to 1% on all corps. from the increased revenue.

36981   HEY YOU   2013 Sep 9, 9:44am  

I need to keep up with the "Verizons". I'm borrowing all I can to overpay for overpriced housing. Debt is good because nothing can go wrong.

I just received certification:I'm an Idiot.

36982   JH   2013 Sep 9, 10:29am  

All the YOY in this graph are greater in 2013. Therefore, the following statement in the article doesn't justify the thesis of the article:

"Since many high-earning professionals such as attorneys and accountants are self-employed, the earnings reported by the self-employed are significant. The self-employed have some control over when and how they report earnings, and many chose to report income in late 2012 rather than in 2013 to avoid the tax increases that kicked in on January 1, 2013."

While it's an interesting way to determining employment rate, the graph is too narrow...needs to include several more years, including some time during a previous recession recovery.

This graph shows economic recovery from 2012 to 2013.

36983   David Losh   2013 Sep 9, 10:42am  

Blurtman says

Actually, he is looking more like a tin horn George W. Bush.

If he secures the chemical weapons he will be way ahead in the global arena.

I'll look at the Assad interview, but it's looking like a diplomatic win for Obama.

36984   Blurtman   2013 Sep 9, 10:52am  

David Losh says

Blurtman says

Actually, he is looking more like a tin horn George W. Bush.

If he secures the chemical weapons he will be way ahead in the global arena.

I'll look at the Assad interview, but it's looking like a diplomatic win for Obama.

It's a win for Putin. Obama has to go along. Win - The Russian Bear. Loss - Big bluster Obama.

This proposal allows Obama to get out of a losing situation that he himself engineered. He looks like a moron.

36985   waiting_for_the_fall   2013 Sep 9, 10:53am  

I saw a photo of George and his wife standing side by side in court. The only way I could tell them apart was George wasn't the one with long hair. They could be twins.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/09/09/20406563-police-called-to-incident-between-george-zimmerman-wife?lite

36986   marcus   2013 Sep 9, 11:20am  

It's amazing how much weight he's put on since he got off of his drug addiction (amphetamines). Looks like he's aged about 15 years too.

36987   marcus   2013 Sep 9, 11:21am  

Apparently she's not comfortable being married to a murderer.

36988   bob2356   2013 Sep 9, 11:35am  

David Losh says

Blurtman says

Actually, he is looking more like a tin horn George W. Bush.

If he secures the chemical weapons he will be way ahead in the global arena.

I'll look at the Assad interview, but it's looking like a diplomatic win for Obama.

There are no wins in the middle east, only degrees of losing.

36989   HydroCabron   2013 Sep 9, 11:38am  

Attacked by his ex-fiancée; attacked by cops; attacked by his wife, his father in-law, and an iPad. Sexually molested by his pre-pubescent niece.

No wonder teen hoodlums attack him: they don't want to be left out.

Now the race-baiters will make this out to be some sort of "issue" Zimmermann has with aggression.

36990   marcus   2013 Sep 9, 11:43am  

IT's true, we have no way of knowing what the ipad did to him before he smashed it and stabbed it.

HydroCabron says

Now the race-baiters will make this out to be some sort of "issue" Zimmermann has with aggression

What color was the ipad ? WE know for sure it was an aggressive ipad that deserved to die. I doubt the color of it had anything to do with it though. I heard someone say, "that ipad was a POS tablet and karma bit it in the ass at a young age." I think that pretty much sums it up.

*edited*

36991   Blurtman   2013 Sep 9, 11:46am  

He must run for President!

36992   lostand confused   2013 Sep 9, 11:49am  

He was just standing his ground against the ipad.

36993   HydroCabron   2013 Sep 9, 11:51am  

We can't know for sure what happened between George, his wife, her father, and the iPad, because none of us were there. We'll just never know.

Therefore my conclusions as to his motives and actions are completely supported by the facts, and everyone else is full of shit.

36994   SJ   2013 Sep 9, 12:04pm  

Congress seriously needs to impeach Obama's ass and throw Kerry in prison as a treasonous war criminal.

36995   HydroCabron   2013 Sep 9, 12:07pm  

You should all just shut up about Zimmermann. Anyone is free to molest a child, assault a fiancée, assault a cop, murder a kid in a hoodie, and brandish a weapon at relatives. If you think you can pay your employees better while doing so, then there's nothing stopping you.

Therefore, no one has any right to criticize him.

Checkmate, race baiters!

36996   marcus   2013 Sep 9, 12:08pm  

Geraldo Rivera is saying that maybe this will serve as a wake up call to young electorincs devices to not go around intentionally looking like they are dangerous or up to no good.

Some are saying that the ipad may have had the CNN website open on it at the time, or worse, PBS. That is suspicious.

36997   HydroCabron   2013 Sep 9, 12:16pm  

Must everyone just pile on to this murderer like he's Walmart or a realtor, judging him before we know that he did anything wrong?

By the way, that iPad, like the rest of them iPads, was going to commit a crime sooner or later.

36998   HydroCabron   2013 Sep 9, 12:23pm  

Exactly: Zimmermann minced forward to do the job the cops wouldn't.

36999   mell   2013 Sep 9, 12:28pm  

Call it Crazy says

egads101 says

and a reference to charles hugh smith, who has been 110% wrong on every economic prediction of doom for 6 years now. It that guy had ever been right, we wouldn't be having a discussion, but he has never been right ever.

Let's see... Charles Hugh Smith's blog is listed #7 on CNBC's list:

....Charles Hugh Smith is an American writer, and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site, "Of Two Minds".[1] Started in 2005, this site has been listed #7 in CNBC's top alternative financial sites.[2]

Hey Roberta, where's your blog on that financial blog list??

Hehe. Actually he has had some really good writings spot on leading into the crisis, spotted the problems with debt and the FIRE sector early on. He mos-def has been more right about everything than 2 years of housing "recovery" ;)

37000   CDon   2013 Sep 9, 12:34pm  

Call it Crazy says

egads101 says



and a reference to charles hugh smith, who has been 110% wrong on every economic prediction of doom for 6 years now. It that guy had ever been right, we wouldn't be having a discussion, but he has never been right ever.


Let's see... Charles Hugh Smith's blog is listed #7 on CNBC's list:


....Charles Hugh Smith is an American writer, and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site, "Of Two Minds".[1] Started in 2005, this site has been listed #7 in CNBC's top alternative financial sites.[2]


Hey Roberta, where's your blog on that financial blog list??

Its a legitimate point. After all, Charles Hugh Smith was the basis for the infamous 1975 nominal prices by 2014 call made by Dunnross.

http://patrick.net/?p=651978

In the long and spectacular history of failed housing calls on Pat.net -- this one will go down as the most epic failure of all time.

Would you not agree?

37001   mell   2013 Sep 9, 12:47pm  

CDon says

Its a legitimate point. After all, Charles Hugh Smith was the basis for the infamous 1975 nominal prices by 2014 call made by Dunnross.

http://patrick.net/?p=651978

In the long and spectacular history of failed housing calls on Pat.net -- this one will go down as the most epic failure of all time.

Would you not agree?

It is a valid objection, but that doesn't discount everything else he wrote where he was spot on. A lot of people underestimated not only the power but also the audacity of the Fed to print and recklessly indebt future generations, kicking the can down the road as long as possible while trying to maintain a state in between massive inflation and deflation so that the deflationistas and the hyperinflationistas eventually would give up or lose their appeal, however effectively creating stagflation and completely wrecking the US economy and middle class.You can see that by how manic the market reacts on tiny interest rate moves as it has lost all the ability to regulate and predict itself like a drug addict and any major rate move in any direction could cause it either to blow-out or plunge into the abyss.

37002   marcus   2013 Sep 9, 1:03pm  

Any minute now the technophobe baiters and the luddite baiters are going to be chiming in about how not enough respect is given to technology, and how the ipad was just being itself, a perfectly harmless electronics device.

In my opinion, it's irrelevant whether Zimmerman is a technophobe or luddite. He saw an electronics device that was clearly looking for trouble, and he gave it what it was asking for.

37003   CDon   2013 Sep 9, 1:07pm  

mell says

but that doesn't discount everything else he wrote where he was spot on.

Actually, I think it does. I mean, when he wrote this missive, it was not 2006 or 2007, but 2011. By this point, the extend and pretend can kicking had been going on for at least 2 years - and there were absolutely no signs coming from TPTB that it was going to end anytime soon.

That said, the one part where you and I agree:

mell says

A lot of people underestimated not only the power but also the audacity of the
Fed to print and recklessly indebt future generations, kicking the can down the
road as long as possible while trying to maintain a state in between massive
inflation and deflation

That part we agree on 100%. But again, in early 2011, how was this in any way surprising? In the eyes of TPTB, we had the option of (1) seeing the country possibly implode via deflation (2) seeing the country possibly explode via hyperinflation or (3) seeing the country slowly decay as it (and all empires do) slowly, over immense amount of time such that the suffering is delayed so long that some of us will be long since dead and buried by the time it "hits".

In a lot of ways, it amazes me that so many were so sure that TPTB would do anything other than choose door #3.

37004   HydroCabron   2013 Sep 9, 1:09pm  

What was the iPad doing in the house at that the of day?

37005   CDon   2013 Sep 9, 1:14pm  

Call it Crazy says

CDon says



In the long and spectacular history of failed housing calls on Pat.net -- this one will go down as the most epic failure of all time.


Once again, it's so easy to be an armchair quarterback and have such talent to search old posts for predictions....

Agree, but that is actually something to celebrate rather than mock.

For example, the first time I see someone write something I may possibly agree with, the first thing I do is check that persons track record.

In this case, we can see that CHS invested an incredible amount of credibility capital in a call that was going to be either a huge, life changing success, or a massive spectacular failure.

In this particular case, it was an EPIC failure - the types of which you will never recover from IMO. Thus, its reasonable to assume "this guy is an imbecile, and I should cite someone with a better track record in an attempt to prove my point"

Oh, and its not just bearish calls either. The wave theorist Harry Dent once had the audacity to predict DOW 40,000 by (I think) 2011. Again, this was not just a minor failure, but an epic and spectacular failure. Thus, the calls of both Messr Dent and (in the case at hand) Charles Hugh Smith should be avoided at all costs.

Do you disagree?

37006   HydroCabron   2013 Sep 9, 1:19pm  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Comptroller says

HydroCabron says

What was the iPad doing in the house at that the of day?

What the fuck was that iPad supposed to be doing with his *wife* for fuck's sake?

Maybe they were trying on hoodies?

37007   David Losh   2013 Sep 9, 1:23pm  

bob2356 says

There are no wins in the middle east, only degrees of losing.

You've obviously never been there.

We should talk Northern Africa rather than what we call the Middle East.

It's the home of God's Law, and the Will of Allah.

Only the morally bankrupt don't get it.

In the small clips of Assad's interview that I've seen he tells us he isn't in charge of what happens, God is.

Argue with that all you want.

37008   David Losh   2013 Sep 9, 1:25pm  

Blurtman says

He looks like a moron.

Sorry, but the win goes to Obama.

Our Middle East policies have been irrevocably altered by Obama.

Putin put in his two cents, God bless him for it, and that is as far as it went. We already beat the crap out of Russia.

37009   CDon   2013 Sep 9, 1:38pm  

Call it Crazy says

First, I give him credit for MAKING a prediction and going out on a limb. Who
here has a working crystal ball and can predict the financial future?? It's real
easy to look back, though...

I give him credit for the courage to making a prediction like that. I fully admit I am nothing but an armchair quarterback. Thus, if he got this call right, we should all applaud him for being the prescient voice of clarity. Since he did not, he is deserving of the full force of our ridicule and disdain.

Call it Crazy says

Epic failure?? He's still being quoted on major financial news sources and
financial blogs, so that says something...


He's also published and sold a bunch of books...


So, "experts" here on Patnet. can be armchair quarterbacks, but I haven't
seen the Patnet "experts" regularly on the sites that CHS is on or all their
published books....


So, I guess, CHS must be doing something right....

If you haven't figured it out by now, no one gets attention for making dull calls. Instead, the best way to stay relevant is to say something highly polarizing and/or insanely stupid.

I mean, look no further than Jim Cramer. His whole schtick is is being as obnoxious as possible, and a large chunk of his audience is made up of bears who love nothing more than getting agitated by his insufferable bullishness.

So again, going back to CHS, what about that spectacular failure of a call he made gives you any reason to rely upon what he says in the instant case?

37010   CDon   2013 Sep 9, 2:00pm  

Call it Crazy says

To go back a year or two later to spear the guy because he tried to predict the
future when you are using new data that he didn't have at the time is a bit
childish...

I disagree. As I noted above @8:07 pm, the choice of TPTB was door #1, door #2 or door #3.

In 2009, TPTB telegraphed as clearly as possible, we are going to choose door #3.

2 years later, CHS said, (in sum) despite the fact that TPTB have chosen door #3... door #2 (i.e. massive crippling deflation) will happen by 2014.

So again, seeing that in 2011 he was such an utter and miserable failure of a predictor of the future, what, if anything about his track record makes you think he is worthy of listening to now?

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