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My longshot prediction for the 2012 presidential election: Ron Paul will be the Republican candidate for president


               
2011 Apr 26, 6:21am   8,819 views  37 comments

by terriDeaner   follow (0)  

Ron Paul is scheduled to announce his formation of a Presidential Exploratory Committee today.

As much as I am loathe to discuss politics these days, I just couldn't resist! Besides, we're not that far off from the 2012 presidential campaign so increased levels of political discussion are inevitable.

Ron Paul Explores, World Reacts
http://reason.com/blog/2011/04/26/ron-paul-explores-world-reacts

And I think his David-and-Goliath bit with that 'Wall Street dandy' Trump will only help to ratchet up his popularity. Especially since Trump is most likely going to go out Perot-style once he's forced to publicly confront everyone he's ever screwed on real estate for the past 40+ years.

Although Paul is not currently the most popular Republican candidate (this varies poll to poll... with Romney currently in the lead... maybe?), there was a head-to-head poll (Paul vs. Obama) done by Rasmussen 2 years ago that put them both at ~41%:

Is Ron Paul Neck in Neck With Obama in 2012?
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20002497-503544.html

Note, don't read too much into this article, as Nate Silver demonstrated that Rasmussen showed a detectable Republican bias some time ago:

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

So is anyone else game? Intrade has Ron Paul pegged at 3.0% for the Republican Nominee in 2012 (For comparison, Trump is at 9% and Romney is at 25.8%):

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=669534

This will make for some great political theater... and C'mon now... even if he could get elected president, he won't REALLY dissolve the Fed!

#politics

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27   RayAmerica   @   2011 Apr 29, 4:10am  

bob2356 says

Perfect, people like you are one of the reasons that health care insurance is so expensive.

The health care system is so expensive primarily because Americans have one of the worst diets in the entire world. Americans rank right up there with being the most obese in the world, which leads to all kinds of health problems that they think can be "cured" by going to some quack Dr. that will prescribe them some magic pills to make them better. Big Pharma and the medical community thrive because of like you that support this rediculous system that will force us to comply by mandating insurance premiums.

28   terriDeaner   @   2011 Apr 29, 4:35am  

CL says

I think the Republican bosses will make him appear to be a crackpot, a la McCain, because he is not thei candidate of choice. They’ll kill the baby in the crib.

We'll have to wait and see on this one. Both Paul and Trump have yet to attend the court of this boss in NH (nytimes):

A White House in New Hampshire Lures the G.O.P.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/30/us/30house.html?_r=1&hp

Mr. Lamontagne said he expected the parties to continue into the fall, with a break in July and August because his house gets too warm. Mr. Romney wants to come, he said, as does Representative Ron Paul of Texas. He endorsed Mr. Romney in 2008, but in staying neutral for now, he is guaranteeing that his parties stay red-hot and that his own name does the same.

“It’s a smart strategy on his part,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, pointing to Mr. Lamontagne’s possible run for governor in 2012. “I’m sure he’ll drag it out as long as he can.”

Donald J. Trump has yet to reach out, but Jorge Mesa-Tejada, a friend of Mr. Lamontagne’s, joked that Mr. Trump’s main goal in visiting New Hampshire this week was to get on Mr. Lamontagne’s radar screen.

29   CL   @   2011 Apr 29, 6:32am  

Wonder how that happened? With his name sounding all French-y. :)

justme says

Suppose Ron Paul becomes POTUS.
How long will it take before he becomes co-opted by the Very Serious People (=the corporatist Republican establishment)?
Most of the tea party has been coopted already.
Tell me I’m wrong….

I'd say before the 3rd primary.

30   terriDeaner   @   2011 Apr 30, 6:39am  

An interesting quote from a recent nytimes article:

Republicans Are Pursuing a Wider Field for 2012 Race
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/01/us/politics/01republicans.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

The party lacks the establishment-anointed candidate that has led it into every presidential cycle for decades.

31   HousingWatcher   @   2011 Apr 30, 10:05am  

Mitt Romeny has a very slim chance of becoming the nominee. I only see him getting the nomination if something devestating comes out about Pawlenty at the last minute.

And no mention of Mitt Romney is complete without a link to a RomneyCare article:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view/2011_0412romneycare_a_big_bust/

32   HousingWatcher   @   2011 Apr 30, 10:11am  

terriDeaner says

Nah… I don’t think this will work. He’s a long-established member of the NY financial elite and lives in a gold plated penthouse for crying out loud!

h

If it were not for the Time Warner Center in the background, I would have mistaken that photo for one of Saddam's palaces.

33   HousingWatcher   @   2011 Apr 30, 10:14am  

The scariest words in the English language:

"This is President Trump. Give me the launch codes."

34   terriDeaner   @   2011 Apr 30, 4:19pm  

HousingWatcher says

And no mention of Mitt Romney is complete without a link to a RomneyCare article:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view/2011_0412romneycare_a_big_bust/

Nice...

35   FortWayne   @   2011 May 1, 9:41am  

i'm saying these quotes are reasonable. attack by the left is a false interpretation of them.

Those blacks that were rioting were pillagers and looters, the only thing that stopped them were hand outs and Koreans with guns. only reason my dads store did not get ransacked was because he had a dog with a loud bark and a shotgun. The same mentally sick (mostly blacks) people that were rioting back then are the same kind that go rioting and pillaging every time Lakers win a championship.

The liberal hit job is when they try to take that reality and make it sound like it is being addressed toward all the blacks that exist when we all know it's not the case and that the statement is only meant for those who are guilty as charged. It's what the ultra left does, takes sentences out of context and plays them to extreme to prove a point.

36   Vicente   @   2012 Feb 26, 1:39am  

Nomograph says

Folks on these forums have really bad track records when it comes to making predictions.

To be fair, it was qualified with LONG SHOT not dead certain "why can't the rest of you dolts see how obvious the outcome is".

37   elliemae   @   2012 Feb 27, 11:12am  

Nomograph says

Folks on these forums have really bad track records when it comes to making predictions.

I knew you'd say that.

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