patrick.net

Reality says

or the test itself generates a lot of false-positives.

The other possibility, which some people have asserted to be the case, is that a lot of people (A LOT) have no symptoms or mild symptoms with this. This would mean that a lot more people out there have it than we know. Also meaning the fatality rate is actually as low as it is for the flu. This would be great if true, becasue it would also mean herd immunity comes sooner.

I read so much about this, I forget which "expert" was saying that there might be as much as 6 times as many people out there with the virus as we think.

marcus says

The other possibility, which some people have asserted to be the case, is that a lot of people (A LOT) have no symptoms or mild symptoms with this. This would mean that a lot more people out there have it than we know. Also meaning the fatality rate is actually as low as it is for the flu. This would be great if true, becasue it would also mean herd immunity comes sooner.

Yes, that is the first possibility mentioned in my post: "a conventional seasonal Corona-virus that has been spreading among the general population since late 2019 (and not causing much more than the usual Flu / Cold for the winter season)" That also means a large cross-section of the population is already immune . . . which was hinted by the testing result on Diamond Princess: the infection rate should have been much higher than 20% after people had been locked in that environment for 3 weeks (with the first week fully mingling!) if nobody onboard had any immunity (i.e. had already been exposed previously before getting on the ship and fully recovered or recovered from no symptom at all).

Reality says

Yes, that is the first possibility mentioned in my post: "a conventional seasonal Corona-virus that has been spreading among the general population since late 2019 (and not causing much more than the usual Flu / Cold for the winter season)"

No that's different.

I was adding the possibility that it's still new, and very deadly for older people, but that we don't know how many people have it, possibly way way way more than we think.

I guess Korea's numbers after testing well makes that possibility, less likely.

NoCoupForYou says

One lady on my wife's facebook - I block facebooks in hosts files - asserted than young people were dying, which is complete bullshit, and that anybody who wanted to reopen offices and businesses and factories was a "Mass Murderer" (ie OrangeManBad).

Yes, there was an almost comical spate of PANICKED articles about young people dying in large numbers after someone gave the order: "Publish this, now!"

It was hard not to laugh, given how obviously orchestrated it was. And how contrary to fact.

Yes, young people may be carrying it and infecting the elderly, but it's still very rare for anyone under 30 to die from this.

Media credibility has fallen from zero to less than zero and is now digging into the basement floor.

marcus says

I was adding the possibility that it's still new, and very deadly for older people, but that we don't know how many people have it, possibly way way way more than we think.

I guess Korea's numbers after testing well makes that possibility, less likely.

Flu and Cold can be very deadly to the elderly and infirm. 55k people die of Flu every year in the US alone, mostly the elderly and infirm, according to CDC.

Dying of the flu is a pretty normal way to go for the elderly.

Milan turns out to be very polluted, probably contributing to the death rate there.

https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Spread-of-COVID-19-begins-to-show-pattern-of-4-8-week-eruption-cycle-622035

Spread of COVID-19 begins to show pattern of 4-8 week eruption cycle

Analyzing the specific data of each country separately suggests that there is a light at the end of the tunnel – and that the tunnel is not that long. ...

Most people are focused on the total number of patients, new patients and deaths worldwide. These numbers are ascending at a deadly pace, literally, and looking at the graphs gives a sense that they are climbing rapidly toward the end of the world. However, the specific data of each country, when examined separately, suggest otherwise. Although this is an early observation, it appears this disease has a periodicity of a classic Gaussian bell-curve shape wherever it appears.

Ignoring both tails of the graph, it indicates that this bell's life cycle is around six to eight weeks, with its peak appearing after about two to four weeks from the time when incidents begin to occur at a substantial rate. When looking only at global numbers as a whole, what is seen is an aggregation of Gaussian bells that join the game at various stages, which completely distorts the analysis of the data and the bell behavior.

Italy has peaked. Curve is flattening. Same will happen here in a few days/weeks.

https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-coronavirus-129.html#Keine-gemeinsame-Erklaerung-der-G7-Aussenminister

No joint statement by the G7 foreign ministers
7:36 p.m.

The foreign ministers of the leading western industrialized countries are unlikely to agree on a joint declaration on the Corona crisis at their video conference on Wednesday. According to media reports, the USA, Canada, Japan and the four European members - including Germany - were unable to agree on a common text in preliminary talks. One of the differences was the term "Wuhan virus" used in the American draft.

Good for America! It is the Wuhan virus, nothing else.

Patrick says

NoCoupForYou says

One lady on my wife's facebook - I block facebooks in hosts files - asserted than young people were dying, which is complete bullshit, and that anybody who wanted to reopen offices and businesses and factories was a "Mass Murderer" (ie OrangeManBad).

Yes, there was an almost comical spate of PANICKED articles about young people dying in large numbers after someone gave the order: "Publish this, now!"

It was hard not to laugh, given how obviously orchestrated it was. And how contrary to fact.

Yes, young people may be carrying it and infecting the elderly, but it's still very rare for anyone under 30 to die from this.

Media credibility has fallen from zero to less than zero and is now digging into the basement floor.

The Democrat buffoons running Commiefornia...Gavin Gruesome and imbecile mayor of Los Angeles Eric Garbagecetti are INSISTANT that the Wuhan Virus affects everyone and younger people had better be concerned because some teenager in the IE who had other heath problems died from it.

Democrats are the worst.

zzyzzx says

Hahahaha!!!! Dare you to post that one on Facebook!

Enjoy your freedom to speak here at patrick.net!

Reality says

55k people die of Flu every year in the US alone,

"Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu."

80,000 people died of the flu in 2018:

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

It was barely even news.

Meanwhile, the other 10 to 15 thousand people who died in the USA today: Who gives a fuck.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/904584/new-oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-may-have-already-built-coronavirus-immunity

The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.

The head of the study, professor Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford theoretical epidemiologist, said she still supports the U.K.'s decision to shut down the country to suppress the virus even if her research winds up being proven correct. But she also doesn't appear to be a big fan of the work done by the Imperial College team. "I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model," she said.

If her work is accurate, that would likely mean a large swath of the population has built up resistance to the virus. Theoretically, then, social restrictions could ease sooner than anticipated. What needs to be done now, Gupta said, is a whole lot of antibody testing to figure out who may have contracted the virus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

Home testing? You pee on it and it says if you don't vote Democrat, you'll be dead in days.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-march-21-153036254.html
Unemployment benefit claims skyrocket to 3.283 million

https://funnyandhilarious.com/pornhub-premium-is-now-free-to-encourage-everyone-to-stay-home/

Pornhub Premium Is Now Free To Encourage Everyone To Stay Home

@WookieMan you were right on this one - 1k deaths and 3MM unemployed - really? I hope Trump stays strong and continues to support opening up businesses again early.

mell says

@WookieMan you were right on this one - 1k deaths and 3MM unemployed - really? I hope Trump stays strong and continues to support opening up businesses again early.

That's 3.28 million that applied for unemployment pay for the week ending 3/20.

Figure another 3 million for those who don't qualify for unemployment compensation (part timers, illegals, and those without 6 months employment at their last employer).

Figure another 5 million that got their hours cut

Next weeks report will be even worse, but they passed the stimulus bill. Who cares if anyone has a job? We will print our way to prosperity. What could possibly go wrong?

Misc says

Next weeks report will be even worse, but they passed the stimulus bill. Who cares if anyone has a job? We will print our way to prosperity. What could possibly go wrong?

I agree the report will be similar if not worse. The key is if we open shit back up, can we hit the ground running? My worry is we can't. This is a gut feeling and I don't have a theory/idea why though outside of anecdotal experiences.

I don't really comprehend how you can make up roughly 20-30 days of 80% reduced spending across the board. Entire industries (not just one or two) basically closed. Good GDP growth is 3% with everything open 24/7. People can't and won't triple spend when things open back up. That money is gone. And now they don't have jobs and are waiting on gov. assistance in some cases to eat. A bit hyperbolic, but people are gonna be hurting.

After my first adventure into the public in 11 days, I fear we're fucked. Older people aren't heeding the advice whatsoever in my area at least. I don't really have a guess on deaths for CV-19, but my guess is it's going to surpass 50k and I think that's the floor, not the ceiling.

WookieMan says

I don't really have a guess on deaths for CV-19, but my guess is it's going to surpass 50k and I think that's the floor, not the ceiling.

Lol. I guess I have a guess. Ahhhh, sometimes the brain don't work right.

https://trendingpolitics.com/breaking-british-expert-who-predicted-millions-of-coronavirus-deaths-makes-stunning-reversal/?utm_source=economics

1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the Imperial College authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID;

2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.

3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.

4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary.

5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is interesting - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.

6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.

WookieMan says

Older people aren't heeding the advice whatsoever in my area at least.

Judging by my elderly neighbors, they don't. Group walks, Starbucks runs, doggy playdates, Costco runs, TotalWine runs, you name it. My fucking cars haven't been started in more than a week (reminds me to put a trickle charger on the one with a weak battery), but these guys - in and out like a fucking clockwork.

TEOTWAWKI says

Judging by my elderly neighbors, they don't.

If they are still alive, then they are just part of the problem.

Ceffer says

TEOTWAWKI says

Judging by my elderly neighbors, they don't.

If they are still alive, then they are just part of the problem.

Valid point.

TEOTWAWKI says

Judging by my elderly neighbors, they don't. Group walks, Starbucks runs, doggy playdates, Costco runs, TotalWine runs, you name it. My fucking cars haven't been started in more than a week (reminds me to put a trickle charger on the one with a weak battery), but these guys - in and out like a fucking clockwork.

I didn't get it. Mind gets foggy when you've been home so much. I felt like I was in a movie or something. It was surreal. And no, this wasn't during senior hours that they're now doing. Everyone in the damn store could have been my parent or grand parent (I'm mid 30's as a reference point).

I was literally looking at 20% of people in there and thinking, boom, you're dead, you're dead, etc... I think I saw 3 obese bitches on electric carts. I'm like, "how you doing rolling dead fattie?"

Delivery services for oxycontin, cocaine, THC oils, marijuana and Napa Valley Wines. These OldFuck menaces, using the public dime for their heedless pleasures while social isolating, HAVE GOT TO GO!