patrick.net

Up to 15 millions US mortgages could default.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/home-lenders-brace-for-up-to-15-million-u-s-mortgage-defaults

So if this economy goes into a depression, what is the strategy? Hoard some actual gold?

It looks worse now. 6.6 million filed for unemployment last week which would throw the scaling on your chart all off.
That’s 10 million newly unemployed in two fucking weeks!
Also I noticed the movies graph stops well short of where we are today, which is probably at zero.

Hate to be morbid, but perhaps public funeral chains might be a good investment.

rocketjoe79 says

So if this economy goes into a depression, what is the strategy? Hoard some actual gold?

Ammo and yams.

Shaman says

It looks worse now. 6.6 million filed for unemployment last week which would throw the scaling on your chart all off.
That’s 10 million newly unemployed in two fucking weeks!

My guess is 7-10M next week. That was just the restaurant industry over the last couple weeks. Their suppliers are next. Then all sorts of shit. Non-essential work from home people are coming in the next 7 days, be ready. It will surpass 20M if this really goes until the end of April. Don't expect your state to be able to handle the UE load. Then the Federal gov. gets blamed.

We're worried about the wrong hockey stick. But whatever. I'm a ruthless ass hoe that wants old people dead.

Velocity o f m o n e y s l o w i n g d o w n

Buy stocks while cheap if you have money. Some people gonna make out like gods out of this.

CBO Forecasts Q2 GDP Drop Of -7% (Annualized -28% Decline), Mortgage Delinquencies To Near 30%

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

This is great - you should be able to buy a new car for $10!

Answer Craigslist ad for $10 car. End up as the hood ornament.

My assumption is that anything that was going to be part of the next Coming Soon downturn (following the record expansion) gets pulled into this pandemic depression. The one wildcard is some 1099-based startups may pull through (or last longer) as the downturn will likely produce many more willing "independent contractors".
Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’
Startups have always been risky, designed to grow fast or die, but the coronavirus pandemic is turbocharging Silicon Valley’s natural selection and causing a shake-up so sudden it has defied comparison. In just a few weeks, more than 50 startups have cut or furloughed roughly 6,000 employees, according to a tally by The New York Times. Plans for initial public offerings are on hold. And funding is drying up for many young tech companies.
One advantage to having employees work from home -- you don't have to call security to escort them out of the building.
At Bird, the Los Angeles scooter startup that had once been valued at as much as $2.5 billion, hundreds of employees were invited to a video conference call Friday morning with just an hour’s notice. On the call, the voice of an unidentified executive explained that their jobs had been eliminated. A slide outlined the terms: a month of severance pay, three months of medical benefits and one year to exercise their stock options.

finehoe says

Mortgage Delinquencies To Near 30%

Finally, some good news.

EBGuy says

One advantage to having employees work from home -- you don't have to call security to escort them out of the building.

Yeah, and how are they planning on getting back that work laptop?

Patrick says

finehoe says

Mortgage Delinquencies To Near 30%

Finally, some good news.

Whaddya mean? It's your tax money that's gonna be spent bailing out Freddie & Fannie again as well as the banks. What you thought your savings wasn't gonna be confiscated either through default or hyper-inflation or taxes?

Patrick says

finehoe says

Mortgage Delinquencies To Near 30%

Finally, some good news.

Besides previously delinquent mortgages before this all went down, there won't be any for a while. Even the ones previously in process will get frozen in time. People will miss April and May, but I think there will be something that tacks it on the back end or when people go to sell or refi.

Misc says

It's your tax money that's gonna be spent bailing out Freddie & Fannie

Fannie and Freddie is Obama's fault. They could have been EASILY flush with cash right now if new rules were legally required of the two. The treasury was taking all the profits for close to a decade at this point though besides operating costs for the most part. Fannie and Freddie have been a federal ATM for a while now.

Somebody pays for those Freddie and Fannie guarantees to the note holders that will still be paid on time and that someone is you.

Misc says

Whaddya mean? It's your tax money that's gonna be spent bailing out Freddie & Fannie again as well as the banks. What you thought your savings wasn't gonna be confiscated either through default or hyper-inflation or taxes?

OK, it's a race between confiscation and cratering housing prices.

Not clear which one will win.

Maybe it will be possible to buy a cheap house for greater savings than the amount lost to devaluation from bailouts.

Really depends on how long this lasts. Impossible to say at this point.
Once everything reopens I expect restaurants and hair care places to be fairly crowded for some time (possibly bars and strip clubs too). Hotels and travel related stuff will take a little longer. Now cruise lines I would expect to take longer than the rest of the travel/tourism industry to recover. Boeing is practically in a category all by itself.
I somewhat expect casinos to be OK once reopened, since they mostly cater to compulsive gamblers anyway. Auto related stuff might delay reopening just to use up excess inventory.
Even though auto repair is slow right now, people should really be getting their cars repaired when they aren't using them much and won't miss them.
IMO, this really has to end before summer.

Patrick says

Misc says

Whaddya mean? It's your tax money that's gonna be spent bailing out Freddie & Fannie again as well as the banks. What you thought your savings wasn't gonna be confiscated either through default or hyper-inflation or taxes?

OK, it's a race between confiscation and cratering housing prices.

Not clear which one will win.

Maybe it will be possible to buy a cheap house for greater savings than the amount lost to devaluation from bailouts.

Ok, the race is on. I heard that the new timetable is a years worth of mortgage payments missed before foreclosure can begin. It is a slow race.

Booger says

Really depends on how long this lasts. Impossible to say at this point.
Once everything reopens I expect restaurants and hair care places to be fairly crowded for some time (possibly bars and strip clubs too). Hotels and travel related stuff will take a little longer. Now cruise lines I would expect to take longer than the rest of the travel/tourism industry to recover. Boeing is practically in a category all by itself.
I somewhat expect casinos to be OK once reopened, since they mostly cater to compulsive gamblers anyway. Auto related stuff might delay reopening just to use up excess inventory.
Even though auto repair is slow right now, people should really be getting their cars repaired when they aren't using them much and won't miss them.
IMO, this really has to end before summer.

This is about what I think as well.

Already so many small business, and some struggling chains, are dust when this starts up again, even if it’s only two months.

Already I’ve had arguments about how bad it will be if the shutdown lasts through August(which it won’t anyway...people will break everything down long before that and will actively defy orders).

We’re taking societal breakdown of this shutdown lasts 6 months. For some reason people think the uS government can keep up to infinity with the money and printing. It can’t and to think it can is fantasy land beyond belief. I don’t know what MSNBC or CNN idiot is promoting as such, but you’re probably a even bigger imbecile if you think Fort Knox will get us through this.

My two cents...I think California residents will start protesting to open up (at least conservative politicians)...the damage to small businesses in San Francisco is outstanding, permanent closures of businesses. San Francisco could be the next Detroit. The moderate good news is that WMT, AMZN, TGT, UNFI and a bunch of other companies are hiring a lot of workers. I was laid off this week and I already have an 'interview' lined up for a software job in SF. There will be a massive exodus out of California, I can tell you that based on what I see on Linkedin.

Misc says

Somebody pays for those Freddie and Fannie guarantees to the note holders that will still be paid on time and that someone is you.

What? That one flew over the head I guess. Fannie and Freddie would be 1,000% solvent if they had been allowed to keep profits for the last decade and the Obama administration had put capital limit requirements on them. Instead the treasury has taken ALL the profits not needed for operation minus a small percentage. They could have probably operated for half a year right now with everyone skipping mortgage payments if they had the ATM money that was sent to the Obama administration AND now the Trump administration.

Fannie and Freddie have been government cash cows for a decade. All bailout money was paid and AND THEN SOME. It was government panic at minimum and likely intentionally done to put them under conservatorship..

Cash is king in crisis and imho some of the very best deals are on the way, the money flow to the USD is going to be phenomenal and believe patients will be rewarded..
The flow to the USD isn't likely to subside or parse all that much until this situation is further down the road perhaps past the shelter in plce/social distance orders lighten up or are canceled and some sense (sort?) of normality comes back to the masses. These are some of my initial targets+/- 1st DXY 107/108.5, USOIL $15/8, SP500 $1850, Gold $1550/$1450, Silver $10/$8, XAU/XAG ratio 101. As far as crypto goes which is a wild card I am looking at BTC $7800 as a top. All these are just initial areas of interest and moving targets I am looking for price points to touch and some sort of reaction if/when hit... The main point I am sharing is don't get in a hurry the odds of the equity and future (paper) commodity markets oils, metals, jr miners and such being ready to buy are slim ATT I am looking for more major discounts coming to the markets with waves of lower pricing GL

Booger says

Boeing is practically in a category all by itself.

There are thousands of airplanes parked right now. Airline travel is down 94%!!!!!
More supply of airplanes are so not needed now. Boeing has a YUUUUUGE supply and demand problem.

No more bailouts. Let them feel the pain of stupid decisions.

There's been a long running discussion on a Facebook site called 1970's Great American Land Yacht about the effect of the shut down on collector car prices. Most think they are going to take an immediate hit, but no one knows what will happen in the long run. Obviously such an expensive purchase as a vintage car is not seen as very important right now and many think they have been over-priced and ready for a correction. I'm thankful I sold my '56 Cadillac back in September. The dealer who bought it has already sold it to a friend in the Netherlands, but I'm sure this was before all this started. I'm also selling the 20 plus AMT models of 1956 Cadillac friction cars I accumulated during the past 17 years on eBay. In my other great interest, phonograph records, the two or three auctions I watch are all running on schedule. I won a rare record from UK record dealer/collector Mark Beresford and it's on its way. Kurt Nauck's 1st of his two big annual auctions is in progress right now and his Bidder Request show has replaced the usual programming of my friend's internet radio station Early 1900's Music Preservation under radiodismuke.com for today as the auction ends today at midnight, so you can still get a bid in. It's clear many types of collectibles are going to suffer some loss in value, though. Kurt also said with no apology that they are going to make frequent humorous reference to the Coronovirus.

http://wplayer.early1900s.org/