patrick.net

The last couple weeks were great for those in the market. Like mentioned earlier there is currently no recession on the horizon. Maybe late 2021 or 2022.

mell says

The last couple weeks were great for those in the market. Like mentioned earlier there is currently no recession on the horizon. Maybe late 2021 or 2022.

*****

How can entire industries be destroyed yet we aren’t in a recession? (Theater chains, hospitality, in restaurant dining, cruise and air travel) My ordinary family had $20k earmarked for disneyworld and Costs Rica this year ... both cancelled and spent squat!

We work from home so no gas cost. We don’t eat out, but admittedly do order in often. (That’s a lot of out of work waiters). We saved more this year than the last 10 years combined! But we have no plans to spend that saved money... it’s forever lost from going back in the economy... it’s a nice fat safety net and retirement savings. Simply because we couldn’t spend money and feared spending money. We will go on vacations and travel again, but we won’t dip deep into those savings to do it... that’s ours for experiencing a shitty year. The one good thing to come out of 2020.

I guess it’s all forward looking... but that was the quickest recession and fastest recovery in history!

Onvacation says

I'm Curious. Do you have to pay taxes on your unrealized gains? or can you wait until you actually realize gains?

This was one of my biggest concerns when I got out of Crypto, There was talk about taxing every crypto trade, I only traded once or twice but had friends trading daily, hourly even. could be a huge tax trap later on.

XRP paid off my student loans and bought me a Truck. If I had stayed in for 2 more weeks I would have held $6M... whoops. at that max valuation XRP was worth 3x more than Apple, definitely out of touch, didn't see that coming. With limited supply in BTC, large investors can create artificial demand and hodl the greater fools hostage, as long as its considered legal the price may represent the stupidity of people, infinity.

BoomAndBustCycle says

mell says

The last couple weeks were great for those in the market. Like mentioned earlier there is currently no recession on the horizon. Maybe late 2021 or 2022.

*****

How can entire industries be destroyed yet we aren’t in a recession? (Theater chains, hospitality, in restaurant dining, cruise and air travel) My ordinary family had $20k earmarked for disneyworld and Costs Rica this year ... both cancelled and spent squat!

We work from home so no gas cost. We don’t eat out, but admittedly do order in often. (That’s a lot of out of work waiters). We saved more this year than the last 10 years combined! But we have no plans to spend that saved money... it’s forever lost from going back in the economy... it’s a nice fat safety net and retirement savings. Simply because we couldn’t spend money and feared spending money. We will go on vacations and travel again, but we won’t dip de...

Small businesses have suffered greatly but most of them are not public companies. The big(ger) companies making up Wall Street are doing well at the expense if the smaller businesses. Also tech benefited hugely from the lockdowns and biotech from getting into focus. Overall employment is there if you have the skills and want to work for the man. That's why there's no recession yet.

That's why there's no recession yet.

Also because government employees, welfare takers, government retirees and favored industries did not miss a paycheck.

HeadSet says

That's why there's no recession yet.

Also because government employees, welfare takers, government retirees and favored industries did not miss a paycheck.

That too.

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Single party rule coming, so stocks will take a hit since government is gonna go on borrowing spree.

Fortwaynemobile says

Single party rule coming, so stocks will take a hit since government is gonna go on borrowing spree.

Before Trump was elected we were told the stock market will crash if Trump wins. The stock market soared.
Before Biden gets in we are being told the stock market will crash.
Before (insert next candidate) gets in, we will be told, the stock market will crash.
...

Low interest rates and money printing push asset prices higher.

G36 says

Low interest rates and money printing push asset prices higher.

This unless a Bush or Clinton is around.

What are you guys doing with your 401k thinking about moving most to money market for a month, cant shake gut feeling of crash.

Already in MM..

Dunno about the 401, choices are limited.

But all the IRAs, considering G36 and Cash's posts: sell all positions, open Robinhood account, put it all in crypto's.

I reckon a tenfold increase by the end of the year.

If we get a single party I would seriously think about a strategy to get money out of that 401k. Those things are too tempting for the govey.

RC2006 says

What are you guys doing with your 401k thinking about moving most to money market for a month, cant shake gut feeling of crash.

Correction yes, crash no. Earnings are still more than intact. I'm having a hard time taking any gains because the market is pushing higher each week. Convert some of it but not all if you want to pay respect to your gut. I'm expecting new highs til 2H21 at least, cause the next euphoria will be re-opening of businesses and retail.

G36 says

Fortwaynemobile says

Single party rule coming, so stocks will take a hit since government is gonna go on borrowing spree.

Before Trump was elected we were told the stock market will crash if Trump wins. The stock market soared.
Before Biden gets in we are being told the stock market will crash.
Before (insert next candidate) gets in, we will be told, the stock market will crash.
...

Low interest rates and money printing push asset prices higher.

Single party rule, with Dems assets inflate and stocks deflate. It’s same pattern always.

Fortwaynemobile says

Single party rule

They don't have majority in the Senate, so it's not really one-party rule. Even with Kummalala's tie-breaking vote, it's still too slim to be useful for anything.

RC2006 says

What are you guys doing with your 401k thinking about moving most to money market for a month, cant shake gut feeling of crash.

Money Market accounts are not money.

They can lose value.

This was a big lesson of the 2001 crash.

FuckCCP89 says

Fortwaynemobile says

Single party rule

They don't have majority in the Senate, so it's not really one-party rule. Even with Kummalala's tie-breaking vote, it's still too slim to be useful for anything.

They just got majority, VP is tie breaker.

Dholliday126 says

If we get a single party I would seriously think about a strategy to get money out of that 401k. Those things are too tempting for the govey.

We have a single party. Democrats are more Republican than Republicans now, fuck the poor, outsource jobs, insource illegals, anything for profit.

Biden took far more money from Wall Street than Trump did.

Trump was his own party.

Patrick says

Money Market accounts are not money.

They can lose value.

This was a big lesson of the 2001 crash.

Can't they only loose money if rates go negative. What other fund is safer with 401?

mell says

cause the next euphoria will be re-opening of businesses and retail.

The greatly exaggerated "pandemic" was helpful in forcing a reversal of the economy, which was doing embarrassingly well under Trump.

It does seem likely that soon they will declare that they have achieved victory over the "invisible enemy" because there is no longer a threat to the elite.

On the other hand, the elite are getting so much out of this that they may keep it going literally forever.

- tech billionaires greatly increased their fortunes by wiping out small retail businessmen, forcing us to buy online
- the state has an excuse for tracking everyone you personally talk to, a Soviet dream scenario
- the recent "aid" pacakages went mostly to big businesses like airlines and banks, organizations with a log of influence; common people get almost nothing

Patrick says

mell says

cause the next euphoria will be re-opening of businesses and retail.

The greatly exaggerated "pandemic" was helpful in forcing a reversal of the economy, which was doing embarrassingly well under Trump.

It does seem likely that soon they will declare that they have achieved victory over the "invisible enemy" because there is no longer a threat to the elite.

On the other hand, the elite are getting so much out of this that they may keep it going literally forever.

- tech billionaires greatly increased their fortunes by wiping out small retail businessmen, forcing us to buy online
- the state has an excuse for tracking everyone you personally talk to, a Soviet dream scenario
- the recent "aid" pacakages went mostly to big businesses like airlines and banks, organizations with a log of influence; common people get almost nothing

Right, the common people don't spend much though. What was different in 2008 was enough dominoes had toppled that suddenly the big players and spenders started losing a lot of money, their loans and rates were called in, etc., banks would choke off any continuation of loan related spending for private or business ventures. So spending on anything came to a halt.

Patrick says

This was a big lesson of the 2001 crash.

I think there was some law/rule passed after 08 that says banks can take it if we can another crash like 08 as well. Or some shit like that. Where is Rin?

Most recent stats are in. The trading geniuses (retail brokerage) decided to go an extra $56 billion onto margin in December after a record breaking $63 billion in November. From the increase in market levels so far this month, it looks like they are plowing everything they "save" into the markets plus borrowing billions and billions more. There are no adults cutting off this credit flow...buy more at the top...what could possibly go wrong?

Fortwaynemobile says

FuckCCP89 says

Fortwaynemobile says

Single party rule

They don't have majority in the Senate, so it's not really one-party rule. Even with Kummalala's tie-breaking vote, it's still too slim to be useful for anything.

They just got majority, VP is tie breaker.

One moderate Dem senator balks and even simple majority is gone. Besides, any serious shit will need a filibuster-proof majority. Good luck getting that.

Eric Holder says

One moderate Dem senator balks and even simple majority is gone. Besides, any serious shit will need a filibuster-proof majority. Good luck getting that.

Not even moderate. Opportunistic or needs to get reelected in a state where winning isn't a slam dunk in '22 or '24. We saw it with Republicans and they did have a majority under Trump (Romney, Collins, etc.).

Biden will mainly be a lame duck. Remember the House lost seats as well. I don't see that trend reversing in 2022, Dems will lose more. The usual cycle recently has been for the losing party for POTUS to take the House back 2 years later.

We also still have to see what the census did I believe. That kind of got swept under the rug with Covid. Many urban areas lost a lot of population. Where did those people go? Were they D's or R's? That could push some purple districts red as I think most moving out of urban areas are sick of the leftist shit.

mell says

the next euphoria will be re-opening of businesses and retail

Much of that is already priced in during the last couple months. A big missing piece after re-opening will be business reinvestment. What retail or small/medium business will invest in an environment that can be shut-down at a moment's notice for made-up excuses? The big techs will be facing a big problem expanding into foreign countries because all the other countries now have seen the regime risk in allowing them in. It's trivial to reverse-engineer the big social media firms to create something similar in their own countries.

Reality says

mell says

the next euphoria will be re-opening of businesses and retail

Much of that is already priced in during the last couple months. A big missing piece after re-opening will be business reinvestment. What retail or small/medium business will invest in an environment that can be shut-down at a moment's notice for made-up excuses? The big techs will be facing a big problem expanding into foreign countries because all the other countries now have seen the regime risk in allowing them in. It's trivial to reverse-engineer the big social media firms to create something similar in their own countries.

Many other countries had similar or even worse shutdowns and lockdowns. I don't think the US has a problem here although I am certainly disappointed with the fear porn and the lockdowns, but not surprised by the blue states being the most retarded and fascist about it. I can see a correction but it will be short lived. There is no long term recession in sight and I am not an uber bull by any means. Once you see big tech posting lackluster earnings or even losses and start seeing layoffs then maybe. One could argue it may be too late by then to get out if the market is anticipating it, but as we have seen in 2007 it's often too late, not too early

That being said, I do anticipate a correction as some names are just way too lofty, lol look at tsla at 900, and the earnings expectations for tech are very high. Have taken out a loan here and there as I anticipate they can be repaid by restocking the 401k with cheaper shares. That and taking some gains off the table, going from 0% cash to 10%-20% cash.

mell says

look at tsla at 900

Biden in his speech/Q&A mentioned 100's of Billions of tax payer money for American steel, ports/bridges/infrastructure, battery tech, biotech and clean energy.
He also specifically said "electrifying Americas fleet" and investments in battery tech in the US....This has TSLA and maybe GM written all over it.

Nancy Pelosi bought a buncha Tesla options late last year. She knew the fix was in. They'll push the $7500 rebate and Tesla goes even higher.

(Full disclosure: I own Tesla Stock. Wish I had bought more :)

same here....thinking of opening a position in F and possibly GM as well.

G36 says

same here....thinking of opening a position in F and possibly GM as well.

What is F?

GlocknLoad says

G36 says

same here....thinking of opening a position in F and possibly GM as well.

What is F?

F(ound)O(n the)R(oad)D(ead)

The technicals on F line up nicely (gotta be patient though) plus Ford's going electric...hopefully big.

BTW, 30B out of GM's marketcap (~76B) is for cruise (autonomous vehicle company with the ability to produce fully integrated self-driving vehicles at global manufacturing scale) which is also partnering with Microsoft.

True tsla is riding the tailwind from green tech but will soon have to face reality and fierce competition as margins erode. But look at AH today another broad earnings beat with many big names up. There's no crash or correction in the very short term.

absolutely no crash in sight. the opposite. I used to keep cash for opportunities/emergencies/whatever. I keep almost all in stocks nowadays besides my investments in RE/Crypto.
TSLA is 10 years ahead of everyone else. "GM wont catch TSLA" - Jim Cramer. I think he's got a point.

The only risk I see is an increase in interest rates which we already know wont happen anytime soon.
The velocity of money is like half of what it was before covid, despite the money printing....what does that tell you? People dont spend left and right....they either keep the cash or tie it up in investments. Tons of opportunities to make a killing during those market conditions IMO.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1V

gold and cash holders are losing, losing and losing. The funniest dummies are those that think the FED will just stop at some point and let the economy crash. We'll be able to make fun of those people for more than a decade.

G36 says

absolutely no crash in sight. the opposite. I used to keep cash for opportunities/emergencies/whatever. I keep almost all in stocks nowadays besides my investments in RE/Crypto.
TSLA is 10 years ahead of everyone else. "GM wont catch TSLA" - Jim Cramer. I think he's got a point.

The only risk I see is an increase in interest rates which we already know wont happen anytime soon.
The velocity of money is like half of what it was before covid, despite the money printing....what does that tell you? People dont spend left and right....they either keep the cash or tie it up in investments. Tons of opportunities to make a killing during those market conditions IMO.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1V

gold and cash holders are losing, losing and losing. The funniest dummies are those that think the FED will just stop at some point and let the economy crash. We'll be able to make fun ...

At this stage it may be prudent to keep 10%-30% in cash IMO. Even though the Fed won't stop some valuations are just too lofty. This is a big tech earnings week so we will know more. Also pay attention if results are good and stocks pop AH but give it back the next day in a red market, also a sign of a potential correction. Going to be an interesting week.

TSLA is 10 years ahead of everyone else. "GM won't catch TSLA" - Jim Cramer.

Similarly, Amazon (Bezos) is trying to slow down Musk with his Starlink sat internet. Musk requested additional altitudes for new sats, and Amazon (and others) are trying to stop his efforts. These companies don't even have any working satellites, much less anything is space, or a payload delivery vehicle!

I hope Musk crushes them all. I'll be investing in Starlink Day 1.