patrick.net

SubOink says

here in LA we’re at 2002/2003 prices…

More like 03-04 prices....

Nathan says

I think it’s the best time to buy and flip properties now.

Works in some locations.

For Los Angeles, it works IF you get the property cheap enough AND IF you have good contractors that are relatively inexpensive.

At the moment, decently located turnkey properties with modern upgrades seem to command a strong premium and quick sale over other type properties in all non outlying areas of LA County, and even moreso in areas that are considered to be safe and have decent schools.

Most often(for LA County) this takes the form of shady insider stuff that most people don't have access to.

klarek says

SubOink says

here in LA we’re at 2002/2003 prices…

More like 03-04 prices….

Last time, I looked at homes was in 2003, I kept a lot of the listings MLS sheets and checked them out. Half of them are selling at below the asking price of 2003. 2002 prices are rare but you can find them. And some people are still in dream land asking 2004 prices (but not getting them).

If you have time to look, have a downpay and can get a loan..there are some amazing deals out there.

klarek says

More like 03-04 prices….

I shall confirm this.

Our condo originally was on the market for 140k when we got it years ago. About a year after that bubble started emerging and price went up to over 400k (it was really dumb). Today our neighbors foreclosed condo (exact same as ours) is on the market at 220k.... been there for a while with no takers. 220k in this area is a lot of money, people have metal bars on windows out here for a reason.

Prices have a lot of room to go down, because bank is certainly motivated to not keep on paying $300 HOA fee every month and god knows how much in other repairs.

SubOink says

Last time, I looked at homes was in 2003, I kept a lot of the listings MLS sheets and checked them out. Half of them are selling at below the asking price of 2003. 2002 prices are rare but you can find them. And some people are still in dream land asking 2004 prices (but not getting them).

If you have time to look, have a downpay and can get a loan..there are some amazing deals out there.

As a whole though, prices are in late 03 to early 04 territory. Anecdotal cases aside, sales above 2003 level prices are still occurring. There's certainly room for them to fall.

any thoughts on BIDU?

Generally speaking, housing prices will fall back to about the 2000 price levels because that was the last time that housing prices consumed about 38% of the average household incomes... we'd be there by now were it not for all the bubble gum policies and failed attempts to keep prices inflated... all the other stuff posted here is smoke and mirrors... the macroeconomic math for a balanced economy will eventually work out and win out... IMO, Alan Greenspan didn't understand the basic relationship between wages and prices.. even for something as important as home prices, he didn't get it... just utterly amazing to me... (frankly, I'm not sure his relief, BB, does either)...

and speaking of wages and the relationship between wages and home prices, we'll just have to see how cutting about $4-5T from the federal (bloated) budget does for jobs, wages and then home prices over the next decade... yea, that sounds like a real stimulator for increasing home prices... that should be interesting to watch play out...

so, yes, we're destined for 2000 home prices, or thereabouts.. that includes bubble locals like the Bay Area and Washington DC... of course, most of this assumes we collectively learned something about the imense hazards of massive credit bubbles that were needed to inflate housing prices to their current levels..

I don't care much for speeches, I want to see concrete written bills explaining what he will do... otherwise it is just always same old political generic crap which never materializes. I do not trust him, but I also bear no trust in Republicans either. I want to see concrete facts, right now it is just political chit chat. Everyone has friends who want their tax benefits protected on k street.

Here is Obamas speech btw:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgJiHxRv2M0

shrekgrinch says

Uh…if Trump runs, it will be as an independent despite all that you allow yourself to be programmed by the ‘unbiased’ media otherwise. I seriously doubt he’ll have that (R) next to his name even if he seriously does run.

What? Trump is a registered Republican and that's the only group he scores strongly with. The idea he would run as an independent or suck in Obama voters seems.... DAFT to put it mildly.

How about we put a bet down on this one since you are so certain.

shrekgrinch says

If the doesn’t win the primaries (not just NY but all the other states he’ll need), then running as an independent is the only option he has…the Ross Perot option.

So it's not a CHOICE, it's a backup plan. Got it.

With his blather about 25% tariffs on China he does seem to have plagiarized Perot.

I for one welcome our stern Tea Party overlords.

Anybody who flogs the 'dems vs. repubs' is the one being disingenuous. They're all hogs at the corporate trough.

sfbubblebuyer says

Anybody who flogs the ‘dems vs. repubs’ is the one being disingenuous. They’re all hogs at the corporate trough.

Agree, but the real battle is between conservative and moderate.

Not even full class warfare taxation levels can save us.

That's why Obama included spending cuts. Read the speech, this time for comprehension.

The Dems truly bankrupted us.

1) This nation is not "bankrupt". The Bush administration (and Republican congress before them) policy preferences put us on a course of disaster, but we're not quite there yet, just a bit way down the road.

Our interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost us $1.3T -- Iraq alone was a $800B blunder.

The 2001-2003 tax cuts failed to create the liberated market full of capital investment, instead all that newly freed money just went into land values. I can see this now, but in 2000-2001 I had not discovered the Georgist thing so did not see beforehand this dynamic coming.

The deficit is no great mystery:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=7X

shows how the annual deficit (red line) has been increased to make up for the slack of the loss of borrrowing power in the economy.

The central, controlling fact is that the US economy hit the wall in late 2007 and is now broken.

The damage has been accruing since 1985 or so so we need more class warfare, not less, to fix it. The choice we face is liquidating the rich or liquidating the middle class.

Unfortunately the rich can hire the best and brightest to defend their interests, and much of the middle class are easily bamboozled by these lies.

The major budget-buster increases since 2007 have been welfare (up $100B), unemployment insurance (+$100B) and defense, up $300B.

unemployment is tailing off and welfare is a pretty large budget item now (total of $700B/yr at all levels, or $7000/household), but the our military is the elephant in the room here, at close to $1T/yr.

Talk about bankrupting us!

shrekgrinch says

Uh…if Trump runs, it will be as an independent despite all that you allow yourself to be programmed by the ‘unbiased’ media otherwise. I seriously doubt he’ll have that (R) next to his name even if he seriously does run. Hence why you are all confused and I am not…you actually think he’s going to run in the general election as a Republican.

Uh, my point wasn't that he'll be a Rep. The point is that he is VERY well liked by Republicans. You'll notice that he ins't among the top vote getters in Dem polls... Don't you think it logically follows that he'll get more votes from Republicans??

Ha ha, anyone who touts the recent speech/actions as "class warfare" without considering what's been happening over the past several years - shifts of massive amounts of wealth toward the top - is being disingenuou. Just a usual shreckgrinchsymdrome post, nothing to see here.

I like the idea he mentioned about fixing the tax code itemized "deductions". But without specifics there isn't much to go from.

Found a link to the proposed budget, will read later of course.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/___Politics_Today_Stories_Teases/budget.pdf

It still doesn't look like redfin fixed 'that thing' where asking prices appear to spike. Just about every California market I've looked at shows a sharp turnaround EXACTLY after Jan 1, 2011. Coincidence or screwed up algorithm?

ChrisLA says

I don’t care much for speeches, I want to see concrete written bills explaining what he will do… otherwise it is just always same old political generic crap which never materializes. I do not trust him, but I also bear no trust in Republicans either. I want to see concrete facts, right now it is just political chit chat.

Agreed.

whatever any short term graph shows, in the long term, the math will always win out.... whether california prices go up or down or remain flat in 2011 is irrelevant to the long term relationship between wages and home prices.. home prices will continue to deflate in CA, SF Bay because of the math, as represented by 100+ years of housing and wage data, says it will.... its really pretty simple... these little reversals to the long-term (downward) trend line for housing prices in CA and SF Bay are just that, little reversals... the trend will continue... the math and 100+ years of housing data says so..

of course, if the Fed and Congress allow lenders to start loaning again on stated incomes and interest only loans and no docs loans etc etc, then the math and the wage/price relationships will take a pause again... but, the math and the wage/price relationship will rear its head again, sooner or later ...

"Get ready California, prices are going up in 2011"... okay, I must have interpreted that statement of yours as you predicting CA prices rising in 2011... I missed the seasonality reference... my mistake.. you are also correct in not having to show any "concern" regarding any comments or predictions you or others may make on these housing blogs, esp if you are involved in real estate in CA... I fully understand that whatever goes, goes in that sorted world.. math, especially, be damned..

$1T from more tax revenue.

$3T from spending cuts.

shrekgrinch says

Sorry, but there’s a difference between the government FORCIBLY taking money from one group and directly giving it to another vs. non-government entities engaging in voluntary associations that redistribute wealth. The fact that you can’t recognize that show just how much of a communist you are in attitudes.

I don't know what you're talking about here, the money that was given to the banks or your interpetation of the current proposal. I certainly recognize the former is a direct fit for the definition you're trying to give.

Who gives a toss about political definitions? Only people who think that dropping a loaded word can influence a discussion... I'm all for stopping the disgusting looting thats currently the hallmark of the recent US systems, you call it what you want but it bears no more relation to me than if you called me superman.

But what do you call a person who favors the continued looting of the US populace so that bankers and corporations can claim higher and higher profits? Look in the mirror and get back to us with your interpetation.

shrekgrinch says

It does not matter. What matters is how much of a third party spoiler he’ll end up being and in what states, period.

Of course. And if he runs as an Independent in the general election, it would be the best thing possible for Obama. I guarantee you that he is hoping beyone hope that Trump is a 3rd party candidate. If Trump spoils anything, it will be the Republican candidate.

Your belief that Trump will be the "Nader" of this election, causing independents who would otherwise vote Obama to desert, is highly speculative and unlikely.

I believe you should get out there and give 110% to the billionaire though and prove me wrong. Are you already on his campaign staff?

To all my friends who are sitting on the Fence and are looking in Cambrian.

( Insider info)
This is one heck of a home,

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/15111-Stratford-Dr-95124/home/1333989

This guy has spent money on the home like anything

cloud13 says

This is one heck of a home,

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/15111-Stratford-Dr-95124/home/1333989

This guy has spent money on the home like anything

Wait, wait, wait... overhead can lights, wall-to-wall carpet, AND vinyl blinds?! This is one classy joint.

terriDeaner says

I suspect they are only including the list prices of homes that have actually sold, not the list prices of all homes for sale.

Yeah, you are probably right. My comment seems pretty silly. Another thing that seems odd to me is that the numbers below the chart sold $/SF do not match the chart that I am looking at. What other issues are you seeing on Redfin?

Realtors don't really change their profession, just the location. I can see it now...

Agent Occupied:
Prime real estate in Cell Block D, overlooking to the common area which leads to greenbelt. Spacious double occupancy unit with attached bath, cement floors throughout. First in line for in-home meal service, 24-hour security provided at no additional charge.

Serious inquiries only.

Trump is a far more entertaining character than Perot. Ross never had photo-ops like this:

YesYNot says

Yeah, you are probably right. My comment seems pretty silly.

Not at all - I made the same mistake the first time I tried to reconcile their reported sale-to-list price numbers with the charts.

YesYNot says

Another thing that seems odd to me is that the numbers below the chart sold $/SF do not match the chart that I am looking at.

I am starting to believe that their charts are misleading. I don't think it is something that redfin is doing deliberately, in contrast to how the NAR exploited their sloppy algo/model to calculate sales figures. (edit) Maybe they have a systematic problem with data display???

YesYNot says

What other issues are you seeing on Redfin?

One thing I have noticed is that the # of results (i.e., listings for sale) displayed on the map page doesn't always match up with the # for sale on the charts. For instance, if you search for 'Santa Clara' county, the map shows 3730 results, but if you check the chart it shows 3030 listings for sale. The chart seems to be a couple of days behind the map (I think), so this could be part of the problem, and if you limit the search parameters (say, houses only) the discrepancy is quite not so blatant. Issues like this make it difficult for me to put much stock in redfin-based trends, however.

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

Robinson is facing a sentence of 30 years in prison and a fine of $1 million dollars when she is sentenced by Chief United States District Judge James R Spencer on July 31, 2011.

PLEASE tell me you'll post the follow-up to this!

terriDeaner says

Wait, wait, wait… overhead can lights, wall-to-wall carpet, AND vinyl blinds?! This is one classy joint.

ha ha ha.

terriDeaner says

I am starting to believe that their charts are misleading. I don’t think it is something that redfin is doing deliberately, in contrast to how the NAR used a sloppy algo/model to calculate their sales figures. Maybe they have a systematic problem with data display???

Thats the problem with Web 2.0 companies trying copy traditional companies that have matured, real estate, insurance, and other finance products. You have people 3-7 years out of school, with not much experience in the field.

16 different fraudulent real estate loans in amounts totaling $2.4 million

of the 16 known at 6% commission assume no down comes to $144K comp.

-----------------------------------------

The scheme involved four overlapping parts.

In some transactions, where Robinson was simply the real estate agent, she and her accomplices would misrepresent a borrower's employment status and overstate monthly employment income, so the person would qualify for a loan, court records show.

The second part of the scheme involved transactions in which Robinson was not only the agent but also was buying and selling properties she rented. She secretly used people who wouldn't qualify for mortgage loans to buy the properties.

The mortgage loan applications were fraudulent on several levels, according to court records.

The applications did not disclose Robinson as having any interest in the deal. Also, financial information was falsified to enhance the buyers' creditworthiness, court records show.

Another part of the scheme involved HUD's rental voucher program for needy people.

Robinson applied to HUD so that properties she controlled could qualify for HUD's subsidized rental program. She falsely represented that she was the owner of the properties, records show. HUD rental subsidies were sent to Robinson, who used the money to make monthly mortgage payments.

To make more money on rental properties, Robinson would "sell" properties at higher prices to the unqualified buyers who would fraudulently obtain higher mortgage loans, according to the criminal report.

Some "buyers" supposedly worked at Prestige Limousine Service in Henrico County, court documents show. Prestige was owned by Robinson's father but controlled by her.

Robinson prepared documents showing one particular "borrower" supposedly earned $4,765 a month as a limousine driver, so the person could quality to buy a $159,000 house in 2006. The person actually had total income of $7,800 that year, according to court records.

Robinson would obtain access to the proceeds of the new loan, records show.

The case was investigated by HUD's Office of the Inspector General, the U.S. Postal Inspection Service and the FBI, Richmond Division. Assistant U.S. Attorney David T. Maguire is prosecuting the case.

elliemae says

Realtors don’t really change their profession, just the location. I can see it now…

They're like priests. If they are caught with their hands down victims' pants, they're simply shuffled around. NAr ensures that the barrier to entry remains as low as possible. More profits result from having millions of little realtors running around telling people "BUY BUY BUY".

Perhaps when this agent leaves the can she'll get a nice corporate gig at NAr, become their spokesperson, etc.

While this realtor won't get the maximum (I suspect a plea and 5 years, the fine will likely stand), good to see they caught her.

However, how can buyers be so stupid as to try and buy something they can oh-so barely afford? Or in this case, not even close to being able to afford it? A buyer should know how much they make, how much they spend, and what falls into their price range.

Realtors, by definition, will do everything in their power to get you to buy something whether you can afford it or not.

elliemae says

Realtors don’t really change their profession, just the location. I can see it now…
Agent Occupied:

Prime real estate in Cell Block D, overlooking to the common area which leads to greenbelt. Spacious double occupancy unit with attached bath, cement floors throughout. First in line for in-home meal service, 24-hour security provided at no additional charge.
Serious inquiries only.

"A spacious 1/4 bathroom. We also have 8 offers already on the table, bid high or be priced out forever."

thomas.wong1986 says

terriDeaner says

I am starting to believe that their charts are misleading. I don’t think it is something that redfin is doing deliberately, in contrast to how the NAR used a sloppy algo/model to calculate their sales figures. Maybe they have a systematic problem with data display???

Thats the problem with Web 2.0 companies trying copy traditional companies that have matured, real estate, insurance, and other finance products. You have people 3-7 years out of school, with not much experience in the field.

like apple (iphone case disconnecting calls), microsoft(windows blue screen of death, xbox 360 red-ring-of-death), or even intel (floating point calculation errors in their processors) haven't had massive bugs in their products.

redfin has bugs because their software is new and they are constantly adding features.
any company young or old, if they release a **NEW** product, will have tons of bugs at time of release.

shrekgrinch says

FACT: That means that the fact that Trump is getting all this attention and support means people are pissed off at Obama, not the Republican ‘candidate’ who hasn’t even been defined yet.

Actually that is not a fact. You need a primer on the definition of fact. What it means is that there is no serious Republican candidate that appeals to the "real" conservatives so they are grasping at straws now. Nobody who supports Trump would have ever voted for Obama. Let me repeat that: Nobody who supports Trump would have voted for Obama.

shrekgrinch says

FACT: Where Trump will hurt Obama will be in New York State. That’s all Trump has to do to cost Obama the entire election. No Dem can win the presidency and do so by still losing an electoral college votes rich blue state or even any such state that is swing state like Florida.

HAHAHAHAHA Again--Trump will not steal Obama voters. He will, however, take votes away from Romney or Crist or Pawlenty.

Really--you honestly think Obama voters are going to go for a birther?