patrick.net

shrekgrinch says

Bloomberg running as an indie.

Sure, why not? It's still 560 days till the 2012 election, and anything could happen. Intrade has the likelihood of this outcome (edit - well, not EXACTLY the outcome you predict but something similar) at 4% :

Michael Bloomberg to announce he will run for President before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743291

Paul won't make it out of the primaries. The GOP is very fractured, with the Teabaggers driving the train. I suspect that social conservatives will be joining the fray soon, and wondering why they don't have a seat at the table. The tent is still unraveled.

Paul appeals to the Libertarian wing (I'd say, the old school, Goldwater-type conservatives) but these fractures and the party apparatchiks won't allow him to get the traction he needs to move beyond a contest or two.

He'll perform a Kucinich-style quixotic campaign, meaning that his real purpose is to make sure the eventual candidate adopts positions closer to his own (at least while campaigning).

CL says

Paul won’t make it out of the primaries.

I think you are really underestimating the guy. From the Business Insider via reason.com:

Why The Ron Paul Presidential Run Will Be A MUCH Bigger Deal This Time Around

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/ron-paul-presidential-candidacy-2011-4#ixzz1KfVDXc6Y

It's just obvious that in the last four years, since the last time Ron Paul ran for President, the ideological center of gravity in the GOP -- and the whole country for that matter -- has shifted a lot closer to Ron Paul's position.

In 2008, the GOP primary was dominated by Serious candidates like Mitt Romney and John McCain and Fred Thompson and even Rudy Giuliani. They were content to basically ignore what Ron Paul had to say. This time, they'll be fighting on his turf.

The article's author is off about the popularity of Iraq at the close of the Bush years. Even so, I think the author is right on about the growing public awareness of the issues Paul has focused on historically.

CL says

Paul appeals to the Libertarian wing (I’d say, the old school, Goldwater-type conservatives) but these fractures and the party apparatchiks won’t allow him to get the traction he needs to move beyond a contest or two.

Dr Paul also has a very good story to tell to the Fundies, being a pro-life doctor.

He has a shot at 2012. It is true the world has come to him since early 2008.

I agree with both of you, and I would have preferred him as candidate in the last two elections. But, partisan politics is just that, and the apparatchik wield considerable influence.

I'd say that "they" killed McCain's growing momentum in 2000, with the race-baiting and lies and whisper campaigns. Because, heck, McCain was the "straight-talker" and the media loved him, etc, etc.

If they thought HE challenged the old order, what will they do with a crackpot like Paul?

And I guess being a pro-life doctor may appease them, since they haven't really even agitated yet. I just wonder when they will tire of being taken advantage of in the abortion area, God in court, schools or whatever.

Remember too, that although the media gives lots of coverage to the Teabaggers, there are countless Republicans that come from the other wings of the party---military voters may not warm to him, for example.

Will Wall Street?

What's the real demographic here that can't be peeled away or isn't owned outright by others?

I predict a Political gaff of monumental proportions, on Obama's part, between now and 2012.
I have a drummer I jam with from time to time. He happens to be Black and a lower income earner.
He asked me the other day, what is with the flack for Obama? I explained it, from the lower to mid middle class perspective, not being poor enough to qualify for subsidies, but being on the hook for what has been placed on the middle class, by 2012.

There will be a lot of people that will be stuck in low income bracket, because taking that job that gives them a marginal better income will place them in bracket where more will be taken from their pay, that by the end of the month, they would have been better off, working the underpaying job and being on the "entitlement" dole.

Obama's win will depend on two things, more poor and upper middle class apologetic white Liberals, that owes the world something on everyone Else's dime, than Middle class voters. Which will be quite possible, as our Electoral process, is during the hours, when the middle class workforce is down at the Mine toiling away on the labor to pay for Social dream that is democracy. That lot does not get off work easy, and polling ends just minutes after most finally fight traffic to get back home to their polling district.

The biggest BS in insurance is actually charging man more for life insurance, or for that matter charging older people more. Isn't old age an existing condition? How can anyone do anything about correcting that? How can they charge more for people who smoke? The auto insurance premium shouldn't be higher for people who have habit of having accidents either; who are they to penalize people who are down on their luck?! BTW, all life insurance should be limited to 2% of a person's income, and auto insurance to 1% of a person's income.

(tongue firmly in cheek of course. LOL)

The real solution to insurance cost being too high is that there shouldn't be any artificial barrier to entry. Then in order to make a living, insurance companies would have to compete against each other underwriting policies more and more favorable to consumers. Government banning practices and micromanaging underwriting details would only further drive out underwriters, leaving the insurance industry even more concentrated.

Also existing condition is not an insurance issue, just like a house already on fire doesn't need insurance but needs fire fighting. The solution to existing condition is not more paper pushing to jack up the cost of medicine even higher and dragoon the neighbors into paying for the overpriced hospital-insurance complex . . . instead there needs to be less paper pushing: remove the artificial limit on supply of doctors by board licensing requirement, and remove the FDA authority so that people can put whatever they want in themselves without having to pay the ridiculously expensive patent meds from the Big Pharma.

shrekgrinch says

Nobody cared about Bush’s bankruptcies, why should they care about Trumps…especially when Trump will just say, “Yeah, and the rest of you should do it too…screw the bankers!” and his poll numbers will skyrocket even more when he does that.

Seeing as you like polls, did you also see the one saying 64% of Americans say they definitely would NOT vote for Trump?

shrekgrinch says

tatupu70 says

Seeing as you like polls, did you also see the one saying 64% of Americans say they definitely would NOT vote for Trump?

Yup! Which makes the ones showing Trump more popular than Obama even more damning for the O-man, if you ask me.

That could be why no one asks you...

At this rate I suspect it will be more like $2500 a month while Obama watches the health care industry run the clock out, raising premiums unimpeded.

"Nobody cared about Bush’s bankruptcies, why should they care about Trumps"

Because Trump is "running" based on his business experience. Bush did not. He ran as the anti Clinton... the family values guy who would keep his pants on in the oval office.

HousingWatcher says

Bush did not.

I remember quite well the mention of the Baseball outfit he ran, more than a few times, during his campaign.

Tenouncetrout says

$1400 a month I’ll be MANDATED to pay for Obama care.

You don't carry health coverage for your family now?

"Obamacare" is just private health insurance, ya know? It's not some socialist plot that sends your money to Hugo Chavez.

Now, the price subsidies to people who can't afford their family's health coverage -- that's something that honest conservatives can rail about (once they realized their 1993 plan required subsidies, they quietly shit-canned it).

Plus of course higher costs since the insurance pool is going to have many more sicker people in it due to the reduction in rescission and exclusions for pre-existing conditions.

I seriously doubt your household will see $1400/mo for health insurance costs. Households up to 400% of FPL will have their premium cap at 10.2% of income, so if you're making under $90,000 per year your maximum annual premium will be $9000, or $750/mo, with the taxpayers picking up whatever remains.

And if you make over $90,000/yr, shame on you for propagandizing about something that you can easily afford.

The mandate is a very conservative thing, to force people to be responsible.

All the conservatives were for it until Obama pushed it, then it becomes bad.

Buncha slimy hypocrites conservatives are.

raising premiums unimpeded.

The only impedance is the 80-85% medical loss ratio -- the big insurance companies will be required to pay that much out in care not overhead or profit. This is generally good, though it gives HMOs like Kaiser a big advantage.

if things get out of hand we can revisit the law and perhaps just fight the insurance companies with single payer.

I bet you're a big fan of government single payer, LOL.

@Troy

>All the conservatives were for it until Obama pushed it, then it becomes bad.

Apparently what Obama's plan ending up as, is very close to something Romney (Republican) proposed years earlier.

Troy says

You don’t carry health coverage for your family now?

No it's far cheaper for all of us to go to the doctor once a month and pay out of pocket, if we are sick or not.
Troy says

I seriously doubt your household will see $1400/mo for health insurance costs. Households up to 400% of FPL will have their premium cap at 10.2% of income, so if you’re making under $90,000 per year your maximum annual premium will be $9000, or $750/mo, with the taxpayers picking up whatever remains.

And still even cheaper than that. Insurance is the Corporate succubus and is not Healthcare you Lemming freaks. Don't kid your self, if you get a catastrophic aliment your fate will be the same as mine, you Suckers. That is ultimately you'll lose your job, your insurance, and will be forced to sell your house. Just like the Two people I know now who's wives are going through Cancer treatments.

Health insurance isn't the gold card 5 star treatment you think will be when you "REALLY" need it. Sure you go once a month and you let the Doctor fondle your Balls and you cough, and you leave feeling secure some how. Well guess what I do that out of pocket for a fraction of your premium. But really get sick, I mean really get sick. The insurance game will expect you to still Pay your part...

"NO TICKEY NO RIDE!" why do you think the hospital gowns are open in the back?
Easy access when they need to insert items in, or kick you in the ass when they done with you. Like you can no longer pay your premiums.

If Ron Paul is going to run I'll have a reason to vote.

Of course I'm in California, voting Republican here is purely a symbolic thing. This state always votes Democrat for whatever the reason regardless of the candidate. Adolf Hitler can carry California if he claims to be a Democrat.

Troy says

worse, angling to become a dependent of the state.

I've got the distinct feeling TOT would feel quite comfortable carrying one of those "Don't touch my Medicare!" signs.

Suppose Ron Paul becomes POTUS.

How long will it take before he becomes co-opted by the Very Serious People (=the corporatist Republican establishment)?

Most of the tea party has been coopted already.

Tell me I'm wrong....

No if there's going to be a health scam system, that does not deny existing conditions,
that also subsidizes those that can't afford it. Then I'll skate along and take my chances until 2012.
If something catastrophic was to happen, then I'll sign my house over to my wife and divorce her, then get on the Obama dole. I understand mathematics enough to know that I'll be better fucking the system, rather than bending over and letting it screw me.

More short sighted Liberal bullshit, that screws the hard working middle class, while giving white glove gratis service to the poor.

I see how it works, I'll go stand in that line, then when nobody is looking I can stand in this line.
But when Liberals make a system, one thing for sure, everybody gets some, on the middle class's dime.

Obama care is fucking Joke that falls grossly short of its mark. It is not a healthcare system it is a Healthcare profit center.

See how that works? But in the mean time, it's far cheaper, to pay out my own pocket to go see the optomatrist, general practitioners, my kids get doctor check ups. We're all fit as a fiddle.

Which 99.9% of Americans are, $1400 a month premium for healthy American families like we've got festering boules on our backs, and is in need of 24/7 medical care, Are you insane?

Troy do me a favor will ya, pay my part for me, I'm really losing sleep at night fucking the Obama system out of fucking me and my family over.

And by the way PAL, push comes to shove, I'll go to Peru one of hundreds of countries for major surgery if I need it. But Wall street and the clueless 401K pensioners, aren't getting one cent of mine. Not for MY Health. Greedy ass Bitches!

Tenouncetrout says

At this rate I suspect it will be more like $2500 a month while Obama watches the health care industry run the clock out, raising premiums unimpeded.

That couldn't possibly happen, could it? I mean, Obama, being a Democrat, cares. How could a caring President FORCE the American people into paying a premium that high (to the benefit of the caring PRIVATE insurance companies)? It just can't be, can it? Maybe that's what was meant by "Yes WE Can?"

shrekgrinch says

Nobody cared about Bush’s bankruptcies, why should they care about Trumps…

Agreed. This is all old news.

shrekgrinch says

especially when Trump will just say, “Yeah, and the rest of you should do it too…screw the bankers!” and his poll numbers will skyrocket even more when he does that.

Nah... I don't think this will work. He's a long-established member of the NY financial elite and lives in a gold plated penthouse for crying out loud!

And even if this angle does work for Trump, his number is up when the public finds out that thing stapled to his pate is actually Jimmy Hoffa's scalp...

Troy says

Bush Sr was the last Republican to win California (by 350,000 votes), though in 1992 the Bush/Perot vote won 700,000 more votes than Clinton, good thing there were 2.3M morons voting for Perot in 1992 : )

I didn’t realize 1992 and 1996 were so close for Clinton:

This isn't too surprising if you consider that California didn't become a 'blue state' until the Clinton years. Before that California generally voted along with the rest of the western states, and often for Republicans. The website below has a great history of the electoral vote running back to 1789!

http://www.100bestwebsites.org/alt/evmaps/electoral-maps.htm

@Terri

>Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Thanks for this link!

No problem. Enjoy!

Tenouncetrout says

No if there’s going to be a health scam system, that does not deny existing conditions,
that also subsidizes those that can’t afford it. Then I’ll skate along and take my chances until 2012.
If something catastrophic was to happen, then I’ll sign my house over to my wife and divorce her, then get on the Obama dole. I understand mathematics enough to know that I’ll be better fucking the system, rather than bending over and letting it screw me.

So your plan if something really bad happens is to stick everyone else with the cost since you don't want to take responsibility to insure yourself or your family against catastrophic illnes. Perfect, people like you are one of the reasons that health care insurance is so expensive.

bob2356 says

people like you are one of the reasons that health care insurance is so expensive.

and why there's the mandate in the first place.

though I just got billed $250 for a simple pituitary hormone blood test (one of three taken in one sitting) so my hatred of the current system did get bumped up a notch.

Thing is, I realize to get to a Canadian or Eurosocialist system here is going to require going over the dead bodies of anti-government idiots like TOT.

bob2356 says

Perfect, people like you are one of the reasons that health care insurance is so expensive.

The health care system is so expensive primarily because Americans have one of the worst diets in the entire world. Americans rank right up there with being the most obese in the world, which leads to all kinds of health problems that they think can be "cured" by going to some quack Dr. that will prescribe them some magic pills to make them better. Big Pharma and the medical community thrive because of like you that support this rediculous system that will force us to comply by mandating insurance premiums.

CL says

I think the Republican bosses will make him appear to be a crackpot, a la McCain, because he is not thei candidate of choice. They’ll kill the baby in the crib.

We'll have to wait and see on this one. Both Paul and Trump have yet to attend the court of this boss in NH (nytimes):

A White House in New Hampshire Lures the G.O.P.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/30/us/30house.html?_r=1&hp

Mr. Lamontagne said he expected the parties to continue into the fall, with a break in July and August because his house gets too warm. Mr. Romney wants to come, he said, as does Representative Ron Paul of Texas. He endorsed Mr. Romney in 2008, but in staying neutral for now, he is guaranteeing that his parties stay red-hot and that his own name does the same.

Donald J. Trump has yet to reach out, but Jorge Mesa-Tejada, a friend of Mr. Lamontagne’s, joked that Mr. Trump’s main goal in visiting New Hampshire this week was to get on Mr. Lamontagne’s radar screen.

Wonder how that happened? With his name sounding all French-y. :)

justme says

Suppose Ron Paul becomes POTUS.
How long will it take before he becomes co-opted by the Very Serious People (=the corporatist Republican establishment)?
Most of the tea party has been coopted already.
Tell me I’m wrong….

I'd say before the 3rd primary.

An interesting quote from a recent nytimes article:

Republicans Are Pursuing a Wider Field for 2012 Race
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/01/us/politics/01republicans.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

The party lacks the establishment-anointed candidate that has led it into every presidential cycle for decades.

Mitt Romeny has a very slim chance of becoming the nominee. I only see him getting the nomination if something devestating comes out about Pawlenty at the last minute.

And no mention of Mitt Romney is complete without a link to a RomneyCare article:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view/2011_0412romneycare_a_big_bust/

terriDeaner says

Nah… I don’t think this will work. He’s a long-established member of the NY financial elite and lives in a gold plated penthouse for crying out loud!

h

If it were not for the Time Warner Center in the background, I would have mistaken that photo for one of Saddam's palaces.

The scariest words in the English language:

"This is President Trump. Give me the launch codes."

HousingWatcher says

And no mention of Mitt Romney is complete without a link to a RomneyCare article:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view/2011_0412romneycare_a_big_bust/

Nice...

i'm saying these quotes are reasonable. attack by the left is a false interpretation of them.

Those blacks that were rioting were pillagers and looters, the only thing that stopped them were hand outs and Koreans with guns. only reason my dads store did not get ransacked was because he had a dog with a loud bark and a shotgun. The same mentally sick (mostly blacks) people that were rioting back then are the same kind that go rioting and pillaging every time Lakers win a championship.

The liberal hit job is when they try to take that reality and make it sound like it is being addressed toward all the blacks that exist when we all know it's not the case and that the statement is only meant for those who are guilty as charged. It's what the ultra left does, takes sentences out of context and plays them to extreme to prove a point.

Nomograph says

Folks on these forums have really bad track records when it comes to making predictions.

To be fair, it was qualified with LONG SHOT not dead certain "why can't the rest of you dolts see how obvious the outcome is".

Nomograph says

Folks on these forums have really bad track records when it comes to making predictions.

I knew you'd say that.