patrick.net

Yes, SG, interesting.

thunderlips11 says

It was the price of Crude, reverses in Afghanistan - not ramping up Pentagon Spending - that brought down the Soviet Union.

Interesting thesis, but complex systems are not always cleanly distilled into single (or a few), simple variables...

thunderlips11 says

They also realized that they had to attempt to raise the standard of living in the Soviet Union by producing more consumer goods. To do this, they needed cash from the sale of Russian Oil to Western Nations to buy modern equipment.

How much money were they spending on their military at that time? What prevented this money from being routed into domestic spending? I think that ongoing MAD and the arms race did play a part in reducing the amount of money the USSR had available for improving the quality of life for the proletariat.

terriDeaner says

Interesting thesis, but complex systems are not always cleanly distilled into single (or a few), simple variables…

True. My goal here is to suggest the "80's military spending" was only "one factor", and wasn't the main cause, as many prefer to believe. Humans in general like to believe their positive actions got them rewards, and negative events happen to them.

I earned an A (Nevermind the 30 point curve) on the Test; Teacher gave me a D (nevermind I didn't study).

I heard of this Theory a while ago, now I am actually reading a book contrasting the Soviet Collapse with the US in 2010 by Dmitry Orlov. I'll report some of his evidence as I get deeper into it, but I think he believes that military spending was also a factor as well, just not the main one.

Another interesting theory is the "Bury you in your own Trash" or "Buy from the Capitalist the Rope you Hang him With" - an idea that the Soviets considered but never were capable of pulling off: Borrow huge sums from the US, flood them with oil or cheap chotskies, use the cash to modernize, then, at a key moment, default and oil embargo. The Chinese may be running a variant of this - lend huge sums, the American's own money actually, by flooding them with goods and making them dependent on your supply, then at a key moment, stop buying debt and demand economic control.

Of course, this all remains to be seen...

I would have to go back and read this subject so I don't have any references at this point. I haven't done it for a while. The military industrial complex and their space program was a big drain on their economy.

I am pretty sure oil profits they were recieving before cheap Saudi Oil came in was propping up their military. The military industrial complex was also a big part of their economy. Many Soviet business's stayed afloat through military production of weapons, aircraft, and vehicles.

However, we must step back and look at the big picture. Even I must do this. The failure of the USSR was their weak socialist economic system. China, North Korea, and Cuba all suffered as well. However, China has created a hybrid socialist country at this time.

Reagan used every tool avialable to put pressure on the Soviet union. He succeeded even at the resistance from people within his administration. The speech at the Berlin Wall didn't really "tear down that wall," but it did provide Reagan with popular US support.

Reagan's policies were a factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union. You can't deny it. That's similar to saying that the Soviet's socialist economy wasn't a factor in the fall of the USSR.

I will say that I am not a college history major and by no means a USSR expert. So, take my comments lightly. I just like firing the "Reagan destroyed the U.S.S.R." statement like others who fire the "Reagan destroyed the U.S." statement.

"Borrow huge sums from the US, flood them with oil or cheap chotskies, use the cash to modernize, then, at a key moment, default and oil embargo. The Chinese may be running a variant of this - lend huge sums, the American’s own money actually, by flooding them with goods and making them dependent on your supply, then at a key moment, stop buying debt and demand economic control."

Very, very good point.

Vicente says

I thought Tom Hanks was responsible for the collapse of the SovU.

Well I’ll be knackered.

You got it all wrong - it was Clint Eastwood flying the jet that knew how to read commands from his brain but only in Russian.

Sean Connery did his part by defecting and bringing the Red October over as well.

I don't understand this. Here are a couple questions for starters.

How is the PPP adjustment made? Some details on that would be helpful. Is this mostly about how much higher their cost of living is ?

Also, weren't health care costs done without the PPP adjustment ? I recall their health care system costs nearly half ours, as a percentage of GDP. It's something like, our health care is 16% of GDP, and theirs is in the neighborhood of 9%. But if our GDP buys so much more (in terms of cost of living), then that means, (in a sense) that they are delivering health care even cheaper, if viewed in terms of American income and PP.

IT would be interesting to see and understand the details.

Just think how well China and India must be doing (relative to PPP), since vast segments of their populations can live on few dollars a day.

EightBall says

Vicente says

I thought Tom Hanks was responsible for the collapse of the SovU.
Well I’ll be knackered.

You got it all wrong - it was Clint Eastwood flying the jet that knew how to read commands from his brain but only in Russian.
Sean Connery did his part by defecting and bringing the Red October over as well.

No, really it was the speech Rocky gave after he defeated Ivan Drago.

danacebi says

I’ll keep this in mind next time some idiot prattles on about how ‘bad’ things are over there, how us merrikans are soooo much better as a bunch of wage slave debt serfs with no healthcare, vacation time or retirement.

Yes, take it to the bank. In fact maybe buy yourself a vacation or two, some health care, a college education for your child, or a pension to celebrate this new found "knowledge."

So, I'm not US Poor... I'm Euro rich. I'm gonna buy me a silly hat and walk around pretending to speak a foreign language - with an entourage.

wormwood - does a porn magazine count as a book? 'cause if it does, I know many scholars.

shrekgrinch says

‘Course, I have to read about this from a Brit source. Our media is so lame at doing even the basics of their jobs — uh, actual reporting.

June 21 - NY Times, followed by other articles. Besides, everything is instantly available in this internet age. Who cares who reported it first?

Another example of your knee-jerk reaction to just about everything.

Vicente says

I thought Tom Hanks was responsible for the collapse of the SovU.

What movie was that from???

I personally give these guys some credit as well:

Naturally, the voters had to pass that common sense legislation.

CA, the state owned by the drug habit of unionization.

And what about these guys?

Truthplease says

“Borrow huge sums from the US, flood them with oil or cheap chotskies, use the cash to modernize, then, at a key moment, default and oil embargo. The Chinese may be running a variant of this - lend huge sums, the American’s own money actually, by flooding them with goods and making them dependent on your supply, then at a key moment, stop buying debt and demand economic control.”

Very, very good point.

Agreed.

Because he invented the Scanner?

Is it too late to short Greece?

I've always liked Will Rogers. A true Democrat.

terriDeaner says

You got it all wrong - it was Clint Eastwood flying the jet that knew how to read commands from his brain but only in Russian.

HA!

These are the key factors.

I thought they ran out of cash by spending too much on military. They crashed, we stuck around with the trillions of bad debt we can't pay back.

"I am not against (bull fighting). Every nation has their own affairs and own sports. Some nations like to see blood, and some like to see their victims suffer from speculation. It's all in your point of view. They kill the bull very quick. Wall Street lets you live and suffer." DT #1646, Nov. 1, 1931

"Borrowing money on what's called 'easy terms,' is a one-way ticket to the Poor House. If you think it ain't a Sucker Game, why is your Banker the richest man in your Town? Why is your Bank the biggest and finest building in your Town? Instead of passing Bills to make borrowing easy, if Congress had passed a Bill that no Person could borrow a cent of Money from any other person, they would have gone down in History as committing the greatest bit of Legislation in the World." WA #14, March 18, 1923

Just an observation. But not much has changed in 90 years now. Same shit, different date.

I see so many Mississippians booking month-long paid vacations to Mallorca and the Aegean every August.

According to this article, Brown was going to release details of his budget counterproposal today:

Brown Plans New California Budget as State Legislators Lose Pay
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-06-22/brown-plans-new-california-budget-as-state-legislators-lose-pay.html

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- California Governor Jerry Brown has drafted a plan to pass a budget through the Legislature that sidesteps Republicans who blocked a previous effort, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

“I’ll be sharing some very specific ideas tomorrow,” Brown said to reporters as he left a meeting with Assembly Democrats yesterday. “There will be several ideas I’ll propose.”

I haven't seen anything come through the wire yet...

shrekgrinch says

People come up with all kinds of self-serving alternatives when the actual truth is too harsh.

Pot. Kettle. Black.

The Chinese may be running a variant of this - lend huge sums, the American’s own money actually, by flooding them with goods and making them dependent on your supply, then at a key moment, stop buying debt and demand economic control.

What would they buy with a surplus of hundreds of billions of dollars from trade with the US?

Then, what will they do with the surplus of US dollars from trade with Germany, and Australia, and Japan, and every other country on earth that denominates trade in US Dollars.

But I also don't think very many people think US defense spending is the sole reason for the collapse of the USSR. In fact, I've never heard anybody say this was the sole reason.

shrekgrinch says

Whereas bob2356 at least knows what PPP is based on his question asked. Yes, differences in consumption tax rates is an identified weakness in PPP calculations, Bob. But in this case, for Europe is a clear cause of WHY PPP is lower in Europe than in America. Euroweenies can’t purchase as much compared to us if their governments are both taking more money from them at the front end (income earned) as well as at the tail end (at the cash register).

What about the fact that in Europe you don't pay 12-18k per year out of your take home pay for health care? Or 50-200k for a university degree. Or a lot of other social services that are paid by taxes in Europe and out of pocket in the US. Or medicare and nursing home costs for the elderly paid out of retirement or from adult children's earnings. That all pretty dramatically affects PPP. Yes I have more in my pocket in the US to buy things, but I have a lot higher expenses to pay off first that Europeans don't. That isn't included in the PPP calculations at all.

Wow you went on vacation to Europe a whole 6 times in 30 years. Very impressive. I've lived overseas almost 12 of the last 30 years and like to think I know a little about Europe after living there. Your PPP calculation just doesn't wash with the reality on the ground. It's a lot more complicated than how many trips you can make to wal mart per capita. Europeans have very different values and the vast majority are quite happy with them. If you think that consumerism is the be all end all of life then more power to you, but it doesn't mean everyone else agrees.

WTF does where muslims live have to do with anything?

wormwood says

Which definition do you want?

Some helpful links to get you started:

Dictionary definition of liberal:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/liberal

Dictionary definition of liberalism:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/liberalism

Wikipedia on liberalism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism

Wikipedia on classical liberalism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_liberalism

Wikipedia on shock conservative liberalism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_liberalism

Wikipedia on economic liberalism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_liberalism

Wikipedia on social liberalism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_liberalism

I hope you find this helpful in your understanding of liberalism.

.
Ru proverb 'they pretend to pay us, we pretend to
work"
west gov's can pay prin, only int. U
+ > S total debts $200t twelve zero, 13c
gdp $14t/yr" prof says

I'm no historian, but I've heard it said by historians that around the time of the civil war, republicans were the liberals and the democrats were the conservatives. Even when I was a child, southern democrats were very conservative. In the senate they were often more conservative than some of the northern republican senators. The civil rights movement seems to coincide with a reorganization of the teams.

Since then or so I have observed a continual huge change in both parties, especially the republicans. They are no longer really conservative. But then it's true that both parties are wholly owned subsidiaries of the banks and the corporate world.

WWood - When you consider the change we have seen since 1975, it shouldn't really surprise you that Lincoln was a liberal.

One of the things that fascinates me is that people usually lock onto a team (their party) and don't change no matter what. It's sort of like tastes in food or music. They say after the age of 30 or so, many of these are locked in. I think it's the same with parties. People are loyal to their political party to a surprising degree.

Witness the republicans. Just how insane will they have to get, before we see many more moderate republicans saying adios ?

wtfcapinv says

What would they buy with a surplus of hundreds of billions of dollars from trade with the US?

They can and are buying assets from around the world: Coal Mines in Australia, High End Audio Makers in Germany, Oil Wells in Iran, Gold Mines in South Africa, and America's current top economic performers, Doughnut Shops and Porn Studios.

shrekgrinch says

Look who’s overreacting.

pot. kettle. black.

yawn.

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

Republican?
I thought Lincoln was bipolar.

I don't think he ever explored the Arctic. His wife, on the other hand, nuttier than a fruitcake.

Formidable matin à tous,

Premièrement, offrez-moi la possibilité de vous démontrer mon appréciation pour toutes les très "à propos" informations que j'ai rencontrées sur cet excellent forum.

Je ne suis pas certaine d'être au bon endroit mais je n'en ai pas vu de meilleure .

Je réside à Shelburne, États-Unis. J'ai 37 ans et j'ai quatre très gentils enfants qui sont tous âgés entre 5 et 12 années (1 est adopté). J'adore beaucoup les animaux et j'essaie de leur présenter les items qui leur rendent la vie plus confortable.

Merci d'avance pour toutes les palpitantes débats à venir et je vous remercie de votre compassion pour mon français moins que parfait: ma langue de naissance est le portuguais et je tempte d'apprendre mais c'est très complexe !

A une autre fois

Arthru

google translate rocks:

Antohwb says

Antohwb

Befriend | Ignore
Posts: 0
Comments: 1

Thu, 23 Sep 2011 at 10:57 pm Link Top Bottom Quote Email Flag
Wonderful morning to all,

First, give me the opportunity to show my appreciation for all the great "about" information that I have encountered on this excellent forum.

I'm not sure to be the right place but I have not seen better.

I live in Shelburne, United States. I'm 37 and I have four very nice children who are all aged between 5 and 12 years (1 is adopted). I love animals very much and I try to present items that make life more comfortable.

Thank you in advance for all the exciting future debate and I thank you for your compassion for my less than perfect French: My native language is Portuguese and I tempt to learn but it's very complex!

At another time

The oil glut of the late 1980s was the straw that broke the camel's back, yes.

For some reason Reagan boosters tend to minimize how fucked up the Soviet economy had become by the time that Gorbachev took over. This is odd, since they profess to believe that socialism can't work, yet fail to identify it failing so conclusively with the USSR.

Of course, the USSR was indeed an evil empire and the Soviet brand of socialism was in fact a crock compared to our system. It wasn't Reaganism that did in the Soviets, it was their own failures to create a viable political, social, and economic system. This much is obvious, except to conservative Reagan worshippers.

Oil supply skyrocketed in the late 80s -- North Sea was peaking, Alaska North slope peaked, with most of that supply being shipped down to the west coast, pushing gas prices under $1 again. This indeed crippled the Soviet's hard-currency in-flows from its oil exports.

The US also caught a break with the PC tech boom of the 1980s, the soviets didn't have the economic chops to compete with the Japanese & US consumer electronics powerhouses that were changing the word, both improving productivity and standard of living.

austrian_man says

I am accusing the Fed to be the primary reason for bubbles.

I wouldn't argue the Fed doesn't share some responsibility, but it's not the primary cause. There have been as many, if not more, asset bubbles before the FED as after:

Tulips, South Sea Company, Railroads, etc.

austrian_man says

OK answer this question: Who is responsible for the housing bubble? I am asking for the root-cause. Not the peripheral people who took advantage and made the bubble worse.

The cause was clearly the ability of banks to sell mortgages no matter how crappy the loans. Lending standards went to hell. Low interest rates were probably a contributing factor, but not the main cause.