patrick.net

REpro says

Well, you don’t see the problem. More and more educated people, especially among new graduates the only option is a $9/Hr. job. Recently Bernanke admitted this saying: “It’s a waste of people talent”. They for sure feel to be cheated by the system.

You have to account for WHAT the education is in too. Not all degrees produce an individual of high earning potential. Kids are sold a story telling them that a college education entitles them to a middle or upper-middle class life. Promises of entitlement, of any sort, are very dangerous.

Then there is the whole, "the US has been living high on the hog for a long time, via cheap, finite energy sources that were militarily obtained." I hear more and more about how this generation will be the first to be less-well-off then their parents. It is touted as a sign of the great decline. Personally, I see it as reality. How the hell can every generation be better-off than the last? It is completely unsustainable. If it somehow kept up indefinitely, everyone would be born with $100B to their name, 1,000 acres of the most fertile land, 10,000 servants and vast equity investments that always appreciate. This flawed narrative of unending growth that our entire society is based on is also going to be our ruin. GROWTH in anything, over time, is an exponential curve. Nothing in nature can sustain that, period. Our problem as a species is that we have self-awareness, and we seem to think that our ability to think makes us exempt from nature's laws. Clearly, we aren't actually USING said ability to think, or we would do everything a lot differently! Humans, taken as a whole, are NO different than any other species. We are purely reactionary creatures. Individuals are capable of more, but as a whole we are nothing more than cattle.

Frankly, shit is going to get ugly for a little while. The adjustments that we will be forced to make in lifestyle are coming, and so many people are so heavily invested in their current lifestyle and unable to adapt to a step-function in life that there will be a great, probably violent clamoring of people futilely attempting to maintain a life that has no place in the coming world. That time will pass, and I sincerely hope that we, as a whole, learn from the experience and don't repeat it. America has been enjoying the highest material quality of life in the world for the least overall struggle. The rest of the world has been watching and wants a piece of that pie, and is willing to work a lot harder for it than we currently are since there are precious few Americans left that remember just how bad things can be.

Sorry about the doom & gloom. Personally, I find a lot of value in having LESS material shit, so I think that the "adjustment" will be healthy, overall.

REpro says

With so low wages whose is going to buy houses from baby boomers?

Roberto.

REpro says

With so low wages whose is going to buy houses from baby boomers?

I believe I answered this question already. It's the Chindians. :)

E-man says

With so low wages whose is going to buy houses from baby boomers?

I believe I answered this question already. It's the Chindians.

Your answer probably is closest to reality, since Roberto, Iwong and you focus on low-end portion of housing stock.

If you want reality read Chris Hedges book: "Empire of Illusion". Do a search for the following and you can see an interview of him about it:

Chris Hedges: "Brace Yourself! The American Empire Is Over & The Descent Is Going To Be Horrifying!"

For the past 30 years Americans have not cared at all about living beyond their means, no one cared about the debt, we just wanted to believe the best political liars who offered us a Free Lunch. It is no one's fault but our own. Blame yourself for being a fool.

We wanted Disneyland. We threw a real big party, and now we have $16 Trillion of debt. Borrowing money makes you think you are rich when you are not. When the credit line gets cutoff, its time for bankruptcy, and then your standard of living goes off a cliff. We're almost there.

Most Americans still don't even see the cliff. They can't stand to hear bad news. No surprise, they haven't seen it for 30 years. It's been there all along. Reality is not optional. You can't change the channel like a TV show. Only requires common sense: YOU CAN'T LIVE ON A CREDIT CARD FOREVER.

The US Fed Gov is now spending nearly 2X more than it takes in Taxes. We're nearly out of road to kick the can down. Yet people still don't care. They are still buying into the lies of the Reps or Dems.

Politics is just a Carnival Side Show designed by the bankers to keep the stupid public occupied. People are still falling for it, they still believe in Door#1 or Door#2 like it is some game show. We had a chance to vote for an honest man, Ron Paul, but still the people just want the best liar. They still don't get it.

The only way people will ever get power is to stop asking for the Free Lunch and live within their means. But they don't want reality, they want Disneyland. America should be renamed: "Home of Disneyland, Land of the Free Lunch"

What will it take? Collapse. That is the only solution now available. History repeats itself, as David Walker / GAO said it will be the same as the Fall of Rome. Only this will be much worse.

The Demographics spell certain doom, just as it has for Japan, then Europe, and next the US. 10,000 people in the US now turning 65 everyday for the next 20 years. 2/3's of the US will not be working,
expecting the 1/3 remaining to support them in the lap of luxury. Mathematically impossible. Pure insanity.

Yet people still don't want to face the facts, they don't want to hear the truth, they just want the Free Lunch. The train is headed straight into the wall. Enjoy the ride. It gets much more bumpy from here.

ne5534 says

YOU CAN'T LIVE ON A CREDIT CARD FOREVER.

ne, I am still perplexed by this type of argument. The US has been running on credit cards for over a century. As long as our treasuries are considered secure and Republicans don't do something stupid on the debt ceiling, then there's no issue with the debt. Is big, and don't get me wrong, I think politicians mostly spend unwisely, (military spending should be 1/2 - 1/3 of what it currently is), and the financial industry has gone insane (most due to deregulation), but during WWII the debt to GDP was considerably higher than it is now, so historically speaking, we could spend our way out of the current economic situation and not be in dire straights. That is if we had a Clinton style budget and generate a surplus during the good times (and actually use the surplus to pay down the debt instead of giving perpetual tax breaks to everyone).

What we can't keep doing is off-shoring everything and wonder why we have no middle class left to buy anything. There is one thing and one thing only that drives an economy, and that's demand. No demand = eventual collapse. Austerity does NOT stimulate demand.

That's simply not true. The ramification of the debt spending can be felt more and more each and every year. The buying power of the dollar has deteriorated so much that even once cheap foreign goods have become at least reasonably expensive and inflation has taken its toll on the middle class. Sure you can run a tab for a long time, but to say it has no noticeable effects is crazy. Also citing the Clinton years which were already partially fueled by the forming housing bubble, what makes you think that they can ever get a budget with a significant surplus ever again (that is one where the debt principal shrinks significantly after interest and all other spending has been paid)?

dude, you live in San Jose ... it is THE mexican gang playground that is famous for murdering people, and having teenaged girls disappear, at a very alarming rate. Their invader gangs have ruined Los Banos city and schools.

Do a youtube search for San Jose mexican gangs (Nortenos/Surenos) and see what's going on. They are disgusting. Welfare dollars keep those teen gang breeders fat and happy. Then, while Papi is in prison perfecting his craft, Mamas is living on full blown welfare, procreating as fast as possible, laughing at the silly people that she walks past in the check out line, her two carts filled to the max by the working people her kind victimizes through abuse, theft, intimidation, rape, murder and enslaving the productive people be absusing every program the libs ever created.

San Jose would have been saved by Prop 187 and border enforcement. Even Great America would be enjoyable. Now, you MUST attend on a week day because the weekends are bring-your-gangster-to-the-park days.

Can the legal citizens of San Jose sue the Gov for allowing this to happen?

Oh, wait, the Gov is going to pay the welathy whites back with this new bullet train that will allow the elite to ship off the invaders to the central valley counties of Fresno and Merced, where the service workers will live and commute to the bay to slave. Meanwhile, the beautiful people can have access to the newly emptied slums around San Jose, knock them down and start building Fortress 2.0, using the commuting invader labor --- just a hunch. After all, the rich bayarian whites do not like the heat, the fog, the dust, the smell of dairies, and they know the blue collar valley population is very stiff-necked against "diversity", so the idea of having the gang populating service class infest the valley makes the bayarian's hearts swoon ...

Anyways, I'm only guessing.

gbenson says

but during WWII the debt to GDP was considerably higher than it is now, so historically speaking, we could spend our way out of the current economic situation and not be in dire straights.

You are forgetting about state, local, and personal debt as well as unfunded liabililties none of which existed during WWII.

Clinton's budget worked fine during the dot.com boom with oil at $10.00 a barrel, but won't work during the housing bust with oil at $100.00 a barrel.

gbenson says

during WWII the debt to GDP was considerably higher than it is now, so historically speaking, we could spend our way out of the current economic situation and not be in dire straights

Before was different.
Right after WWII U.S. was a “Power House”, having 90% of word production output. Rest the world economy was simply destroyed.

BMWMan,

I pretty much agree with everything you said...except this:

"GROWTH in anything, over time, is an exponential curve"

You can have continued growth forever and it's not necessarily exponential. If GDP grows by a dollar a year, it's not exponential...it's only when the amount of growth is proportional to the whole.. (2% annual GDP growth, or even 0.001%)

It's clear, though, that our system that "requires" exponential growth isn't sustainable. Not as obvious that it can't keep going for the rest of my life, though I don't count on it.

Americans that say government debt doesn't matter need to be tarred and feathered in the Public Square before these immoral scum bags destroy our country for good!

REpro says

With so low wages whose is going to buy houses from baby boomers?

NO ONE is going to buy anything from anyone (that is the reality THEY don't want anyone to realise) that's my take.

moonmac says

Americans that say government debt doesn't matter need to be tarred and feathered in the Public Square before these immoral scum bags destroy our country for good!

Oh man, thats CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN mister.

The comments are fascinating. Nothing has changed.

>> but during WWII the debt to GDP was considerably
>> higher than it is now, so historically speaking

That is flat false. Our debt vs. GDP is now higher than ever
before in history. Look at the data. And our GDP is a joke now.
The GDP number includes GOV SPENDING - that is an expense!!!
That is overhead, not revenue. Gov stats are rubbish.

>> we could spend our way out of the current economic situation
>> and not be in dire straights.

Are you brain dead? Does that make any sense to you?
In what Universe? "Spend our way out" ????????????

Let me pose a simple question:
Let's say there are 2 people: one saves all his money, and one spends all his money. Which one goes broke, and which one gets rich?
The answer is obvious to anyone with a lick of common sense.

Do you understand Demographics?
Who spends more and pays more taxes:
- someone age 30-50
- someone age 50-70

There is no growth possible now. Only contraction.
The tide is going out. Employment has been falling since 2000,
and real personal income has been falling for nearly 20 years.

Wow, the mentality of the public is truly scary.
We are in a whole lot of trouble.

moonmac says

Americans that say government debt doesn't matter need to be tarred and feathered in the Public Square before these immoral scum bags destroy our country for good!

Dick Cheney; http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_09/remember_deficits_dont_matter032197.php

The future is pretty bleak for the USA, no question. Our political system is completely dysfunctional and the extremists have taken over both major parties. Our whole suburban living arrangement assumes $20/bbl oil. Our population is aging. We have massive debt which will require currency devaluation and inflation. Our culture considers nothing sacred beyond wealth, money, power, and pleasure: if the next generation must be sacrificed on that altar then so be it.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

That's right. Billionaire Chindians are going to move in to watch white people starve, kill and eat each other, while they laugh and drink Pabst on their front porches, serene with the knowledge that America is the best of all possible places to raise their families.

There will be lots of openings for au pairs in the fortress neighborhoods, to escape cannibal anarchy.

freak80 says

Our culture considers nothing sacred beyond wealth, money, power, and pleasure: if the next generation must be sacrificed on that altar then so be it.

It is still more humane that soviet gulags aka abortion factories for the living!

Raw says

Surely you did not expect $100.00 per hour jobs for someone with no skills?

I didn't, but all the RE agents and HELOC Ponzis did. And now they are expecting house prices to go back to the bubble-high levels.

Ruki says

Ceffer says

There will be lots of openings for au pairs in the fortress neighborhoods, to escape cannibal anarchy.

As long as they look like this, I'm game:

Romney Is Only Going To Win Because Obama Fucked Up

Dennis, first you need a girlfriend(blind date?). Then somehow you have to convince her to marry you (not the hardest part). Then you have to convince her to have sex with you (harder part) and have children with you (impossible?).

Then you get to write(fantasize) about having an au pair.

freak80 says

We have massive debt which will require currency devaluation and inflation.

Currency devaluation and inflation cannot be done by US only. That will create too much imbalance. Only when bankers around the world sniff each other, be willing and ready, and then it'll happen. Sure, so many countries will benefit with that.

Now,that is what has reduced UE rate from 8.3% to 8.1%? Let me get this right,if we push the mortgage rate to 0.01%,can a low wage earner afford a $1 million mortgage? ...yes? no?

The answer is: No.
Debt to Income will be exorbitant. Ultimately he/she be in very high risk to quit paying down this huge mortgage anytime.

REpro says

he/she

s/he is the most efficient way to write it.

on a side note, anyone who takes headline statistics at its face value is a dumbass. granular data, along with the headline stats, is the meaningful approach. unfortunately, most of America is full of dumbasses.

Call it Crazy says

....""The recovery continues to be skewed toward low-wage jobs, reinforcing the rise in inequality and America's deficit of good jobs," said Annette Bernhardt, NELP's policy co-director. "While there's understandably a lot of focus on getting employment back to pre-recession levels, the quality of jobs is rapidly emerging as a second front in the struggling recovery."

...that is change you CAN believe in baby.

Ruki says

Ceffer says

There will be lots of openings for au pairs in the fortress neighborhoods, to escape cannibal anarchy.

As long as they look like this, I'm game:

Romney Is Only Going To Win Because Obama Fucked Up

The reality I have seen is that most of these babysitters (and that is ALL they are to me) are third world people of questionable origin and background.

freak80 says

Our culture considers nothing sacred beyond wealth, money, power, and pleasure:

But it's all fantasy this sacred view of so-called "riches" that is a large reason why social media is popular amongst an ignorant mass public. Social media and games fuel fantasy ...sick but true. The depressed aspirational moron can waste hours on end hitting "Like" buttons for things they are never ever going to be able to purchase, and in that way they satisfy a need to be part of that world without really being a part of it.

It is all mass mind control.

REpro says

With so low wages whose is going to buy houses from baby boomers?

Oh that is something they do NOT want you to figure out.

Ruki says

But no matter what, just don't think that suddenly the middle class over here will get any relief as a result.

CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN

ne5534 says

The tide is going out.

NAFTA? CLINTON

1996 Agreement between the US and Mexican setting a minimum price on vegetables? CLINTON

Result? "Brown claims that the minimum price agreement is not enforced, and that the minimum price has not been raised in 16 years, while the cost of producing the crop in the U.S. has doubled." Source:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/09/06/fla-tomato-growers-we-may-be-out-of-business-in-ten-years/

REpro says

Raw says

Surely you did not expect $100.00 per hour jobs for someone with no skills?

Well, you don’t see the problem. More and more educated people, especially among new graduates the only option is a $9/Hr. job. Recently Bernanke admitted this saying: “It’s a waste of people talent”. They for sure feel to be cheated by the system.

Only if they buy into Obama's view that government has to provide and guarantee this and that. Which ignores that it's the pursuit of happiness that's guaranteed, not happiness (or a job, or a good-paying job).

Raw says

If you are uneducated you will be poor, and low paying jobs is all you will get.

I hate to inform you most college graduates are getting the low paying jobs.

And don't ignorantly presume someone without a so-called formal degree has no skills because I know men (and women) without a piece of paper that could run rings around 99% of current so-called college graduates.

Republican voters: This is what 30 years of conservative dominance gets you.

I hope those who vote republican continue to lose jobs and houses.

Reader says

Raw says

If you are uneducated you will be poor, and low paying jobs is all you will get.

I hate to inform you most college graduates are getting the low paying jobs.

And don't ignorantly presume someone without a so-called formal degree has no skills because I know men (and women) without a piece of paper that could run rings around 99% of current so-called college graduates.

Reader

We have guys at work without degrees who run rings around those of us who have them.

We also have people with BSEEs, BSCSs and MBAs who run rings around all of us. Those are the guys for whom we work.

Has any of this ever been any different?

CrankyLiberal says

Republican voters: This is what 30 years of conservative dominance gets you.

I hope those who vote republican continue to lose jobs and houses.

I've been a Republican since the womb. I've never lost a house or car to the repo man. I attended a state university. My wife attended a state university. We aren't rich but we're making more money than we've ever made in our lives.

What's it to ya?

Reader says

NAFTA? CLINTON

Mexicans snap up ‘Made in U.S.A’

Trade between the United States and Mexico is surging, up 17 percent in 2011 to a record $461 billion, as Mexico vies with China to become America’s second-largest trading partner after Canada.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/middle-class-mexicans-snap-up-more-products-made-in-usa/2012/09/09/27c9d1b4-f212-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_story.html

rootvg says

We aren't rich but we're making more money than we've ever made in our lives.

So you are better off than you were four years ago.

http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/18/13939069-the-47-percent-heres-who-pays-no-federal-income-tax?lite

That 47% are considered poor already.
Let’s consider one example of cost of outsourcing: A man use to make $50K per year as a factory machinist. Factory gets closed and production was moved abroad. For the next 10 years he is out of luck to find a replacement job. Some economists say that cheap outsourcing reduces costs of goods sold in stores. Now a man lost 500K earnings over 10 year’s period. His purchasing power went down dramatically, he pay no taxes to gov., yet apply for federal support. How much he saved on cheaper Chines goods over that time? How much local economy lost?