patrick.net

Wrong1986, your words are orthogonal to the topic at hand.

STEM shortage - real or no?

finehoe says

That video doesn't disprove what I said at all

Will this one do?
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/magazine/washingtons-economic-boom-financed-by-you.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&

New Renter says

So the H1B engineers make the same as Wal-Mart greeters? As Starbucks baristas?

No what it means is that, san jose has the highest median income in the entire US and on top of it the income disparity is very low.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/24/americas-richest-cities_n_1910260.html
this shows that most people make good incomes here. ( esp engineers).
Most people on this thread are complaining that engineering salaries ( upwards of 100K+ ) are not high enough.
Tell that to the factory worker who is doing two shifts and barely making 30K. The fact is that engineers in bay area are paid well.

You can always find other jobs ( hedge funds,doctors,..etc) to compare and whine about ..that type of thinking is just a mindset issue and nobody can fix it.

jaldi1 says

New Renter says

So the H1B engineers make the same as Wal-Mart greeters? As Starbucks baristas?

No what it means is that, san jose has the highest median income in the entire US and on top of it the income disparity is very low.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/24/americas-richest-cities_n_1910260.html

this shows that most people make good incomes here. ( esp engineers).

well the News media assume too much without doing any investigation. the reality is in SV sales people make alot of money.. they make a commission on the sales they generate. many sales people actually live outside of SV near their customer hubs.

second, we have shed many local jobs since late 80s.. removing manufacturing and then later Engineering and GA leaving only some 5-10% locally. Much of that are executive positions and support staff. So on average, even if salaries didnt increase, it only seems that MANY people are making more in salaries by removing the bottom 75-80% of headcount.

But year before all this 60-70-80s... majority of the people who worked here did alright without too much competition. Japan entering the Tech sector changed all that..

I hear constant complain on this forum that "chindians" are driving up the real estate price in SFBA. Aren't they mostly 1st generation immigrants, and typically started as H1Bs?
So which one is true? Are they working under slave wages, or are they buying up all the real estates? Two things together can't be true. Choose one and stick with it. I would say it is the second one.

jaldi1 says

You can always find other jobs ( hedge funds,doctors,..etc) to compare and whine about ..that type of thinking is just a mindset issue and nobody can fix it.

I was originally a STEM worker, who's now a money manager at a hedge fund. I have some perspective & thus, assert my right to complain about my former so-called profession. My response to all STEMers who're here is that the GRASS is in fact GREENER, on my side of the fence. Unlike others in the HF world, I own a house in western Massachusetts, not a posh Boston/NYC suburb and thus, I have zero worries about money. My mortgage has been paid off for two years, I have a huge stash of savings, *Cadillac* health & life insurances, and my daily lifestyle is that of a person who earns some $75K/yr. If/when this gig ends (I don't expect to survive for more than 6-7 years in this arena), is to attend medical school with my savings, and then, have lifelong employment, regardless of how my investments perform.

Now, like STEM, a lot of HF persons are kinda young, however, unlike STEM, rampant age discrimination doesn't exist. If you're known to be good at trading, sales, or what have you, finding work in one's 40s isn't out of the question. However, newcomers are not welcome past a certain age. That threshold varies between generations.

On the other hand, as a physician, one can work anywhere from one's 40s till one's 70s. In contrast, many STEM workers will either be in documentation, management, or out of work by one's 50s.

gsr says

Will this one do?

Are you really that thick? Yes, the DC area has a high median income. BECAUSE IT HAS A STRONG MIDDLE-CLASS, NOT BECAUSE THE SUPER-RICH LIVE THERE. I don't know if you are being deliberately obtuse (a common internet troll tactic) or if you are genuinely that stupid (also pretty common in cyberspace). This article addresses the issue much better than the one you posted: http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2011/10/where-one-percent-live/393/

gsr says

I hear constant complain on this forum that "chindians" are driving up the real estate price in SFBA. Aren't they mostly 1st generation immigrants, and typically started as H1Bs?

So which one is true? Are they working under slave wages, or are they buying up all the real estates? Two things together can't be true. Choose one and stick with it. I would say it is the second one.

Seriously? You troll this forum and STILL equate income to housing affordability? Well my friend let me help shed some light on your paradox. Here are some stories which came to light during the last bubble:

Casey Serin--the self-dubbed 'World's Most Hated Blogger'--purchased eight homes between October, 2005 and May, 2006 with the intent of fixing them up and then reselling. Serin, who was unemployed, lied on all of his mortgage applications to get these loans and even receive cash back at closing. At one point, this 24-year-old would-be real estate mogul was in debt over $2.2 million.

Not surprisingly, Serin lost all of his homes in 2007 to foreclosure. News coverage of this was significant. The earliest media stories suggested that Serin may have been a victim of greedy mortgage lenders, but the reporters eventually picked up on the fact that he lied on his mortgage applications and coverage turned negative.

Story 2
How does a California strawberry picker earning less than $15,000 a year qualify for a home loan of $720,000? That was the question everyone wanted answered last year. Borrower Alberto Ramirez, an immigrant who could not speak English, placed the blame on his real estate agent.

But of course, it wasn't the loan that was the problem--this house was simply unaffordable given the borrower's income. Within a few months, the real estate agent quit subsidizing the Ramirez's payments and the borrower quit paying on the advice of an attorney.

http://homeguide123.com/articles/Top_5_Most_Ridiculous_Mortgage_Borrower_Stories_of_2007.html

This all came out as the last bubble was popping. Who knows what we'll be hearing about as this one pops.

Then there are the all cash buyers - that category of buyer CAME OVER with their money, they did not earn it here as H1Bs.

gsr says

Are they working under slave wages, or are they buying up all the real estates? Two things together can't be true.

Sure they can. In 2012 there were 85,000 new H1B visas issued which can be extended to 6 years allowing for a half million low-wage indentured servants in the US. In 2012 there were also 1,020,000 Chinese with a net worth of at least $1.6 million and 63,500 worth at least $16 million a small fraction of which looking for SF bay real estate would impact the market. I assume little overlap between the groups - people usually don't get to $1.6M of net worth on an engineer's salary in the US until approaching retirement, especially starting in a developing country with 1/5 the salary they'd get here and a below market wage after arriving.

ok let me get this straight.
1) bay area has highest median income in US.
2) Bay area has better income distribution than the average US ( gini index) - which means strong middle class.
3) Most engineer families here ( dual engineer income) earn 250+ K. very common scenerio in bay area
4) good software engineers here who have 6+ years real industry experience earn 120+ K . starting salaries are generally 80+ K
5) A nice independent home within a 30 to 40 minutes driving distance can be rented for $2700. A two bedroom nice condo for $2300.

forget about the h1bs. even with all the H1bs , this is what a local american citizen who is in software field will get.
If this is not enough incentive for a american citizen to study and enter the software field then it just means that they are just expecting too much.

reference for
1) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/24/americas-richest-cities_n_1910260.html
2) http://patrick.net/?p=1224183&c=958205#comment-958205
4) http://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/software-engineer-salary-SRCH_KO0,17.htm

drew_eckhardt says

In 2012 there were also 1,020,000 Chinese with a net worth of at least $1.6 million and 63,500 worth at least $16 million a small fraction of which looking for SF bay real estate would impact the market.

That's a whole lot of nothing. Where did this come from and what is "net" worth? If "net" worth includes real estate already then they aren't looking to buy anyway. Even if 20% (doubtful) lived in CA then that would be 200k. If 20% of those were in SF (very very doubtful) then that would be 40k. If 25% were looking for houses (even more doubtful, they have to live someplace now) that would be 10k. So 10k potential buyers in an area of 8 million people would impact the market? I don't think so.

I know it's very hard to believe but SF isn't the center of the universe.

jaldi1 says

ok let me get this straight.

You keep trying to twist this thread into some kind of anti-immigrant hate fest. Its not. The question is, has been and continues to be whether there is a dire shortage of STEM employees to warrant increasing the number of H1B visas granted to foreign STEM workers. The evidence has been overwhelmingly NO, there is no shortage and never has been.

If you have hard evidence to the contrary we'd like to see it.

jaldi1 says

If this is not enough incentive for a american citizen to study and enter the software field then it just means that they are just expecting too much.

good point.

another thing no one has brought up is the fact that in an "American only" company, your chances of being a victim of random shooting carried out by a disgruntled "American" employee is so much higher.

i'd rather smell Kung Pao and Indian curry in the lunch room everyday than live in fear of being shot by an "American" co-worker. they are like ticking time bombs waiting to go off at anytime with no warnings whatsoever!!

as far as i'm concerned if that day ever comes, there will be plenty of yelling in the hallways "WTF dude!? At Least Get the Chinaman First!!!"

New Renter says

The question is, has been and continues to be whether there is a dire shortage of STEM employees to warrant increasing the number of H1B visas granted to foreign STEM workers. The evidence has been overwhelmingly NO, there is no shortage and never has been.

I believe STEM firms can train an existing postdoc for a currently open position.

Basically, give 'em the parameters of the tasks at hand. Let 'em learn the essential skills/tools during the final 3-4 mos of a postdoc, and then, give 'em 3-4 mos to either sink or swim at the company. Chances are, many will rise to the challenge and those open positions will be filled.

Instead, those postdoc resumes go to the wastebasket w/o even a 2nd glance. Sorry, I'm not buying the shortage story.

jaldi1 says

If this is not enough incentive for a american citizen to study and enter the software field then it just means that they are just expecting too much.

All they are expecting is that they will be hired based on the skills they've taken the time and money to acquire. Instead they are handed a BS line that their skills aren't what the employer "needs" so a foreigner must be hired instead.

finehoe says

All they are expecting is that they will be hired based on the skills they've taken the time and money to acquire. Instead they are handed a BS line that their skills aren't what the employer "needs" so a foreigner must be hired instead.

Why would they do that ?
If i am a business owner , why would i not hire a person with the right skills for the salary i am willing to pay to a h1b ?
If the employer is willing to pay 120K for a 6 years experienced H1B software engineer...why would he not hire you if you are willing to work for that pay ? unless of course you say 120K is too low for you

Rin says

I believe STEM firms can train an existing postdoc for a currently open position.

Why would they do that ? if the guys don't even put the effort to learn the skills a company needs. why would a company do that for them.
there are so many ways post docs can learn software skills. they don't have to do a 4 years B.S degree for that.

finehoe says

All they are expecting is that they will be hired based on the skills they've taken the time and money to acquire.

You are showing your ignorance again. Perhaps you have never worked in Hi-Tech?

A large number of foreigners who work in H1-Bs have advanced degree in universities over here.

When we hire, we look for good school and experience, not the national origin.

It might be possible in other fields, but not in high tech R&D. A technical interview is a tough process. I have never seen a single case that we specifically target to hire H1-Bs.

In fact, hiring H1-Bs is a lot more complicated since we have the cost of immigration lawyers, the cost green-card sponsorship etc.
If everything else is equal, we would prefer a permanent resident (green-card) or a citizen. And that's how it is.

The complain I heard is about IT consulting companies getting H1-Bs in the form of cheap labor. Even it is true, there is nothing wrong with it.
In fact, in ten years, most of these jobs will be automated. We will have even less human involvement.

jaldi1 says

If the employer is willing to pay 120K for a 6 years experienced H1B software engineer...

I don't know where you're getting the 120k figure from. The average salary for H1B sponsorship jobs is half that: $64,000.

jaldi1 says

Rin says

I believe STEM firms can train an existing postdoc for a currently open position.

Why would they do that ? if the guys don't even put the effort to learn the skills a company needs. why would a company do that for them.

there are so many ways post docs can learn software skills. they don't have to do a 4 years B.S degree for that.

Please read the content of my post.

The company, in this case, doesn't provide PAID FOR training. The person learns on his own, during his postdoc, and then, works as an intern at that company. But NO company does this. They don't want postdocs because they see their experiences as a mismatch. Which once again, says that we don't have a shortage of STEMs.

gsr says

The complain I heard is about IT consulting companies getting H1-Bs in the form
of cheap labor. Even it is true, there is nothing wrong with it.

If you don't understand why it is wrong, there's nothing more I can say.

Mark D says

another thing no one has brought up is the fact that in an "American only" company, your chances of being a victim of random shooting carried out by a disgruntled "American" employee is so much higher.

Not really.

For all practical purposes except politics mass shootings don't exist and your odds of being killed in a shooting rampage with multiple victims are basically zero.

In 2012 18 out of about 315,000,000 people committed one, which is 1 in 17.5 million or 0.0000057%.

They killed 88 out of 315,000,000 people, which is 1 in 3.6 million 0.000028%.

To compare this with another rare event 1600 Americans become lottery millionaires each year which is 1 in 150,000 adults or .00067% although only 50-60% of adults play the lottery so the odds are at least .00111%.

IOW, if you play the lottery you're 40X more likely to become a millionaire from it than you are to be killed in a mass shooting.

My big concern is suburban assault vehicles which kill 4500 pedestrians and pedal cyclists a year which is like 173 Sandy Hooks a year or one every two days. People even let 16 year old children operate them without adult supervision! Most people have been brainwashed by the powerful automotive lobby and think nothing of this horrible menace, using the lobby's sugar coated labels like "car," "truck", and "cross over."

New Renter says

Casey Serin--the self-dubbed 'World's Most Hated Blogger

You did not get the fundamental point.
Housing affordability and low mortgage rates affect everyone equally. So if everything else is constant, we would see homeowner-ship rate proportional to earned income and assets.

I don't think an average H1-B would stretch more in terms of getting loan than an average local person. In fact, a foreigner would typically be fiscally more conservative.

finehoe says

The complain I heard is about IT consulting companies getting H1-Bs in the form

of cheap labor. Even it is true, there is nothing wrong with it.

If you don't understand why it is wrong, there's nothing more I can say.

120K / year is NOT cheap labour !!!!

finehoe says

I don't know where you're getting the 120k figure from. The average salary for H1B sponsorship jobs is half that: $64,000.

do you have any proof ?

also who gives a fuck!
As a skilled software engineer with 6 years experience you get 120K in bay area.
I don't care about the wage pressure due to H1b's

finehoe says

gsr says

The complain I heard is about IT consulting companies getting H1-Bs in the form

of cheap labor. Even it is true, there is nothing wrong with it.

If you don't understand why it is wrong, there's nothing more I can say.

In conclusion, if you're an American, leave the STEM fields for medicine, trading, patents, or TV/entertainment. Your peers, like a gsr or a jaldi1, will sell you up the river, so that they can advance into management. This thread and the responses to it, sort of hint at those intentions, conscious or not.

BTW, as a hedge fund manager, I'll say this... we do not hire postdocs for any reason. Basically, if you show up at the door with a PhD, you need to bring in some clients. In other words, you're out of the academy and a well seasoned financial professional.

Next, we see IT persons as *tools*. Yes, those types of monikers are thrown around at techies. The people we respect are salesmen, elite prop traders (who're the closest thing to a rock star), some tax consultants, and a professional secretary who makes the entire enterprise look good to visiting clients.

By working in finance, I've realize how little S&Es mean to our society outside of Sci-Fi movies.

gsr says

New Renter says

Casey Serin--the self-dubbed 'World's Most Hated Blogger

You did not get the fundamental point.

Housing affordability and low mortgage rates affect everyone equally. So if everything else is constant, we would see homeowner-ship rate proportional to earned income and assets.

I don't think an average H1-B would stretch more in terms of getting loan than an average local person. In fact, a foreigner would typically be fiscally more conservative.

So perhaps H1B are renters rather than buyers and the "chindians" you are referring to are simply rich absentee buyers. Whatever, it has nothing to do with the OT which you continue to evade.

jaldi1 says

finehoe says

I don't know where you're getting the 120k figure from. The average salary for H1B sponsorship jobs is half that: $64,000.

do you have any proof ?

also who gives a fuck!

As a skilled software engineer with 6 years experience you get 120K in bay area.

I don't care about the wage pressure due to H1b's

Clearly!

finehoe says

If you don't understand why it is wrong, there's nothing more I can say.

Seriously, do you really think protectionism protects jobs?
If so, then you probably don't know people can get jobs outside this country as well.

What do you think will happen if you block foreigners from working here? Will it reduce or increase outsourcing?

Let me give you another example. Go to an island with no humans around.
Create all sorts of jobs and position, and assign them all to yourselves. Don't allow any other human to immigrate to that island.
See, you will have 100% employment. Will that solve all the problems?

See protectionism has been benefiting Hawaiians so greatly.
http://www.UhQ4d8g3tHc

New Renter says

So perhaps H1B are renters rather than buyers and the "chindians" you are referring to are simply rich absentee buyers.

That's completely untrue. In SFBA, places like Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Fremont have a large number of Asian population. Most of them are 1st generation immigrants, and work in Tech companies. Do you even live in San Jose, CA ?

Rin says

In conclusion, if you're an American, leave the STEM fields for medicine, trading, patents, or TV/entertainment.

Here is someone who disagrees with you.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/one-skill-every-american-needs-learn-153037730.html

gsr says

New Renter says

So perhaps H1B are renters rather than buyers and the "chindians" you are referring to are simply rich absentee buyers.

That's completely untrue. In SFBA, places like Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Fremont have a large number of Asian population. Most of them are 1st generation immigrants, and work in Tech companies. Do you even live in San Jose, CA ?

I do indeed. You don't.

You also don't read.

gsr says

Rin says

In conclusion, if you're an American, leave the STEM fields for medicine, trading, patents, or TV/entertainment.

Here is someone who disagrees with you.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/one-skill-every-american-needs-learn-153037730.html

And here is someone who disagrees with your author:
What a load of bovine excrement this article is. Sure, bust your butt, major in CS, not exactly the easiest field of study, get a job where you're required to work 50+ hours/week but only paid for 40, have to be on call 24/7, have to keep your skills current mostly on your time and money, then once you get a few gray hairs you're forced to train your Indian replacement then fired. Good luck finding another job at that point.

gsr says

The complain I heard is about IT consulting companies getting H1-Bs in the form of cheap labor. Even it is true, there is nothing wrong with it.

Nothing wrong with it? IT'S AGAINST THE LAW! The H1-B is to supply skills that employers allegedly can't find in the US; it most certainly is not designed to undercut American workers' wages.

That you freely admit you see nothing wrong with corporations intentionally breaking the law in order to squeeze out a few more pennies of profit shows you are no better than the scum who operate firetrap Bangladeshi factories or exploding Texan fertilizer plants.

Your contempt for the law is disgusting.

New Renter says

What a load of bovine excrement this article is. Sure, bust your butt, major in CS, not exactly the easiest field of study, get a job where you're required to work 50+ hours/week but only paid for 40, have to be on call 24/7, have to keep your skills current mostly on your time and money, then once you get a few gray hairs you're forced to train your Indian replacement then fired. Good luck finding another job at that point.

So, the end result is the American worker, discouraged by this prospect, will resign him/herself to some lowly service job. And that benefits us how?

The other side says, "it's inevitable!", "get with the program!". But the program is low wages and a loss of American competitiveness. A race to the bottom.

New Renter says

gsr says

Rin says

In conclusion, if you're an American, leave the STEM fields for medicine, trading, patents, or TV/entertainment.

Here is someone who disagrees with you.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/one-skill-every-american-needs-learn-153037730.html

And here is someone who disagrees with your author:

What a load of bovine excrement this article is. Sure, bust your butt, major in CS, not exactly the easiest field of study, get a job where you're required to work 50+ hours/week but only paid for 40

Well, there's nothing wrong with taking courses in data structures/algorithms, computer & network architectures, discrete math, etc, to get a general knowledge base. Our secretary, who's got a humanities BS, took a lot of those type of undergrad courses [ as electives ] and now, she's doing a science masters, part-time, to later sit for the Patent Agent exam. So, she's doing quite well in life, without needing to necessarily go all hardcore STEM to do it.

In the article, that guy's teaching at Stuyvesant, the top entrance exam magnet HS in NYC. If anything, for a HSer, attending Stuy is a huge mistake. Everyone there competes to be near the top ~10%, so that they can win a full scholarship to NYU undergrad. Sure, some Stuy guys do great [ typically, the best test takers ] but others, who gravitate towards the middle of the pack, end up at a City College type of school, with limited FA package [ since class rank matters for free money ] , where they're rather bitter and don't find themselves any higher on the totem pole than others. So much for the value of *elite* early bird STEM type of training.

Abbey Cohen of Goldman once made a superfluous statement that she's more impressed with a Stuy HS diploma than someone with a Harvard undergrad. Now, the question is whether or not she would hire a Stuy grad, if he didn't also attend Harvard (or some other Ivy) later?

And yes, my firm doesn't hire Stuy grads w/o a college degree afterwards.

In fact, we place nearly zero value on where one attended high school, including Philips Exeter or Eton.

In every field where outsourcing/offshoring/H1B is possible, it will be done. It is not that upper management wants to necessarily pay the least amount of money in general, it's that they want to pay the least amount of money possible for a minimum acceptable quality threshold. They have their ratios.

dublin hillz says

In every field where outsourcing/offshoring/H1B is possible, it will be done.

And once the labor has all been outsourced to the third world, management can be too. In fact, it will be necessary. Those managers better be close to retirement.

Dan8267 says

And once the labor has all been outsourced to the third world, management can be too. In fact, it will be necessary. Those managers better be close to retirement

And closer to the people and resources they manage. It's the same logic applied for the factories. Why build a Caterpillar dirt mover and ship it to China when they Chinese can build it and use it locally? And while we're at it, we might as well hire the Chinese workers to build them.

Perfect. Let's all go to college, if you can afford it.

CL says

And closer to the people and resources they manage. It's the same logic applied for the factories. Why build a Caterpillar dirt mover and ship it to China when they Chinese can build it and use it locally? And while we're at it, we might as well hire the Chinese workers to build them.

Perfect. Let's all go to college, if you can afford it.

Seems like some forgot about Jeep and China not to long ago...

While you will certainly see lots of US made Jeeps in Europe, that was not the
case for china which slaps a tax on all imports. But will not tax if Jeeps were made
in USA.

Ring a bell ?