patrick.net

Good summary on COL increase since 2020: https://archive.ph/2kcgQ

I like getting a free McDonakds sandwich when I complete a mcdvoice survey. The McDonalds I go to always seems to have this survey option on the receipt.

So I get a fish sandwich for free along with a $9 small meal of a chicken crispy sandwich with fries and soda.

Its enough calories for a meal at $9 compared to the average starting wage for fast food of $15 in Bay County, Florida.

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Dollar has weakened : https://news.yahoo.com/dollar-weakens-further-rate-cut-030003386.html

The dollar extended losses Wednesday as traders ramped up bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the new year after officials sounded optimistic notes on the battle against inflation.

The PCE for October 2024 is to be reported on 30 November.

Red Lobsters loses $11 million on all you can eat shrimp deal...

I'm 0% surprised by this judging by what I see at restaurants when they offer all you can eat deals like this ...

it contributes to less inflation as far as restaurant prices but its not economically sustainable given obesity trends in the USA ...

so yes, there is a lot more high demand for restaurant deals like this compared to 25 to 30 years ago ...

https://nypost.com/2023/11/28/business/red-lobster-lost-11-million-because-of-its-all-you-can-eat-shrimp-deal/

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https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

PCE reported today for October 2023. The Federal Reserve states is makes its decision on the Fed Funds Rate based on the PCE.

PCE is 3% for last 12 months

Inflation continues to trend downward. I think annual inflation will reach 2.5% by April 2024.

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ad says

Red Lobsters loses $11 million on all you can eat shrimp deal...

I'm 0% surprised by this judging by what I see at restaurants when they offer all you can eat deals like this ...

it contributes to less inflation as far as restaurant prices but its not economically sustainable given obesity trends in the USA ...

so yes, there is a lot more high demand for restaurant deals like this compared to 25 to 30 years ago ...

https://nypost.com/2023/11/28/business/red-lobster-lost-11-million-because-of-its-all-you-can-eat-shrimp-deal/

.....

Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.

GNL says

Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.

yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?

ad says

GNL says

Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.

yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?

Anybody interested in reporting their own numbers can take their own surveys and come up with their own numbers. It's not rocket surgery and not the kind of info only gubmint can get. Many non-governmental
orgs are perfectly capable of it. So the claims that "we'll never know the real number because gubmint fudges it" are a bit silly.

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CPI reported today as 3.1% for last 12 months. Was hoping it would drop to 2.9% or lower but still this is a lot better than 9.1% back in summer 2022.

CPI minus food and energy (i.e., core CPI) is at 4% for last 12 months which is a major improvement.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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MOSCOW, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Soviet President Vladimir Pukin issued a rare apology on Thursday when a pensioner complained to him about the price of eggs.

During Pukin's end-of-year question and answer session with the media and with members of the public calling in from across the USSR, pensioner Irina Akopova was shown seated at her kitchen table and addressing the president by video link.

She complained that prices for eggs, chicken breasts and wings had all skyrocketed.

"Vladimir Vladimirovich, take pity on pensioners! We don't get millions in our pensions. Sort this out - we have no one to turn to," she said. "I'm very grateful to you, I'm counting on you to help."

The question reflected real concern among Soviets at the cost of living, and came after Pukin had already acknowledged that inflation may approach 8% this year.

"I apologise for this, but this is a failure of the government's work... I promise that the situation will be corrected in the near future," Pukin said.

The marathon Q+A is a format that gives Putin the chance to show he is sympathetic with ordinary people's worries and is ordering the relevant officials to sort them out.

The government this week said it would exempt 1.2 billion eggs from import duty in the first half of next year to try and rein in prices that have risen more than 40% this year.

-- Reuters

https://slaynews.com/news/biden-most-restrictive-offshore-oil-drilling-plan-history/

Democrat President Joe Biden has just unveiled new plans to impose massive restrictions on offshore oil drilling.

According to the announcement, only three offshore drilling leases would be authorized over the next five years.

It marks the lowest number in U.S. history.

As part of the plan, “green” energy sources will be aggressively pursued instead.

This will cause yet more Bidenflation.

Patrick says

This will cause yet more Bidenflation.

Orange Lady (Psaki) said it best in response to the Fox News White House reporter's question about energy supply. Orange Lady said by paying higher gas prices, we are upholding our values.

They want gas prices to stay elevated. Its a Democrat government mandate as far as pushing for less carbon based energy (mostly gasoline consumption) and more solar and wind, as well as electric vehicles.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4358987-rent-expected-to-drop-in-several-us-cities-as-markets-near-oversupply-real-estate-report/

(NEXSTAR) – Renters may finally catch a break next year.

Of the 100 cities analyzed in Zumper’s Annual Rent Report, which was released this week, 55 have seen rent prices drop since last year. An additional 17 are flat year-over-year.

The report predicts rent prices will keep “softening,” at least through the first half of 2024.

Part of the reason for dropping prices, according to Zumper, is a recent increase in supply, as new apartment buildings and complexes keep opening in fast-growing cities. Real-time data providers like Zillow and ApartmentList also show rent growth for new apartments tumbling.

Nationwide, the cost of renting a one-bedroom dropped by a tenth of a percent in 2023, Zumper reports, but is expected to drop by larger margins in 2024 in cities where supply has caught up with demand. Sun Belt cities, from Phoenix to Austin to Orlando, have all seen one-bedroom rents drop between 5% and 11%.

From NY Post article. Looks like then inflation will not be a major priority or factor in 2024 if this is true.

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“Since 2009, this has been 100% artificial, unprecedented money printing and deficits; $27 trillion over 15 years, to be exact. This is off the charts, 100% artificial, which means we’re in a dangerous state,” Harry Dent told Fox News Digital.

“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we’ll see in our lifetimes.”

ad says

Nationwide, the cost of renting a one-bedroom dropped by a tenth of a percent in 2023, Zumper reports, but is expected to drop by larger margins in 2024 in cities where supply has caught up with demand. Sun Belt cities, from Phoenix to Austin to Orlando, have all seen one-bedroom rents drop between 5% and 11%.

That means it's a great time to buy! Buy now or be priced out forever!

ad says

From NY Post article. Looks like then inflation will not be a major priority or factor in 2024 if this is true.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

“Since 2009, this has been 100% artificial, unprecedented money printing and deficits; $27 trillion over 15 years, to be exact. This is off the charts, 100% artificial, which means we’re in a dangerous state,” Harry Dent told Fox News Digital.

“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we’ll see in our lifetimes.”

Harry Dent is a perma-bear. He’s a broken clock that’s right twice a day.

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The Federal Reserve's preferred annual inflation measure is at 2.6% as of end of November 2024. It continues to trend down. That is why I think ultimately the 30 year mortgage rate is going to steady around 5.5% in 2024 as inflation (and interest rates) subside .

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

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Inflation expectations over the next 10 years have not changed much over the last month or so. What has changed is the yield investors are expecting to earn above the rate of inflation. It has dropped from them wanting about 2.5% over the rate of inflation (back in October) to them wanting "only" 1.7% over the rate of inflation today. That is where the reduction/increase in rates is going to primarily come from. This is for the 10 year bond.

Misc says

to them wanting "only" 1.7% over the rate of inflation today

For me, I would want at least 0.5% real return for a 12 month CD. I would ideally want an annual real return of at least 2% for a government bond fund which invests in intermediate duration bonds. Assume average of 3% annual inflation, this fund is close to providing that 2% annual real return.
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So what do banks want for 30 year mortgage rate after inflation steadies around 2.75% ?

They want a rate of 5.75% ?

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