▲
8
0
▼

Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12


 invite response                
2022 Apr 12, 12:49am   144,977 views  1,494 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:
https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

« First        Comments 642 - 681 of 1,494       Last »     Search these comments

642   AD   2023 Dec 22, 7:48am  

.

The Federal Reserve's preferred annual inflation measure is at 2.6% as of end of November 2024. It continues to trend down. That is why I think ultimately the 30 year mortgage rate is going to steady around 5.5% in 2024 as inflation (and interest rates) subside .

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

,
643   Misc   2023 Dec 22, 8:08am  

Inflation expectations over the next 10 years have not changed much over the last month or so. What has changed is the yield investors are expecting to earn above the rate of inflation. It has dropped from them wanting about 2.5% over the rate of inflation (back in October) to them wanting "only" 1.7% over the rate of inflation today. That is where the reduction/increase in rates is going to primarily come from. This is for the 10 year bond.
644   AD   2023 Dec 22, 8:41am  

Misc says


to them wanting "only" 1.7% over the rate of inflation today


For me, I would want at least 0.5% real return for a 12 month CD. I would ideally want an annual real return of at least 2% for a government bond fund which invests in intermediate duration bonds. Assume average of 3% annual inflation, this fund is close to providing that 2% annual real return.
.



.
645   AD   2023 Dec 22, 8:46am  

So what do banks want for 30 year mortgage rate after inflation steadies around 2.75% ?

They want a rate of 5.75% ?

.
646   Misc   2023 Dec 22, 9:05am  

ad says

So what do banks want for 30 year mortgage rate after inflation steadies around 2.75% ?

They want a rate of 5.75% ?

.


Inflation expectations over the next 10 years is already at 2.2% annual average. Bond investors are being super greedy because they got burned loading up on long term debt during Covid. Funniest thing is that yield spreads between treasuries and junk bonds are quite narrow. I dunno what they are fucking thinking.
648   AD   2023 Dec 23, 10:53pm  

.

Nike to cut costs by $2 billion in next 3 years.

This tells a lot as far as the economy, and mainly due to inflation.

This article tries to downplay this somewhat by claiming that consumers are also instead spending more money on experiences.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
"Customers are switching their behavior, passing up discretionary purchases — like expensive sneakers and athletic wear — for basics and experiences like concerts and travel."

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/nike-says-cut-2-billion-150121521.html

.
649   RWSGFY   2023 Dec 28, 10:48am  

Red Sea attacks could raise prices for U.S. consumers

Attacks on Red Sea shipping might raise prices for consumers because cargo carriers take longer routes to avoid dangerous waters for now.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen first struck cargo ships with drones and missiles this month, in what they claim is retaliation for Israel’s actions in the Gaza war. The disruptions caused shipping giants Maersk, CMA CGM and COSCO to reroute shipments around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, maneuvers that are increasingly costly to shippers and consumers.
As of Tuesday, shipping carriers expect most services to avoid the Red Sea through China’s Lunar New Year festival, said Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a logistics technology company. The two weeks leading up to the celebrations is a peak period for shippers, who rush to deliver goods before the holiday, which starts Feb. 10.
Experts say the costs of rerouting vessels around South Africa or through the Panama Canal will increase prices for consumer goods shipped from Asia to the U.S. East Coast.
“It’s about an 8 percent longer journey, which is going to drive prices up quite a bit for ocean freight — that’s a material impact on prices for the goods themselves,” Petersen said. The rising costs will affect the price of “most of the stuff that you see in all the stores,” other than food, raw materials, and energy, he added.


Where's the fucking US Navy? Why the fuck these "houthi" fucks are not embedded into a glass parking lot yet?
650   The_Deplorable   2023 Dec 28, 4:02pm  

RWSGFY says
"Where's the fucking US Navy? Why the fuck these "houthi" fucks are not embedded into a glass parking lot yet?"

Why don't you volunteer and lead the charge? Send us a post card from Aden if you make it that far!
653   HeadSet   2024 Jan 3, 8:05am  

I wonder how many people today would recognize the "Bagdad Bob" above.
655   AD   2024 Jan 3, 11:05pm  

.

economy is cooling hence inflation will likely decrease more

WASHINGTON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. job openings fell to nearly a three-year low in November as the labor market gradually cools, which could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates this year.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-openings-fall-moderately-november-2024-01-03/

,
656   AD   2024 Jan 3, 11:47pm  

.

Job openings falling back in line with the trend line ,, thanks to Wolfman at Wolfstreet website for the graph...
.



,
657   GNL   2024 Jan 4, 5:10am  

ad says


GNL says


Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.


yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?


Chic-fil-a has increased prices 21% in the last 2 years. I'd say, food, housing and gas are probably the only(?) data points needed to calculate a greatly improved/accurate measure of inflation. Electronics have zero place in the inflation calculation. Cars might not have a place either because I believe prices are very much dependent on government influence/laws.
658   AD   2024 Jan 4, 10:07am  

GNL says

Chic-fil-a has increased prices 21% in the last 2 years.


From what I've read there is no reported increase in their prices in 2020 and 2021. So is this increase representative of fast food
restaurant inflation from January 2020 to present day ?

https://nypost.com/2024/01/02/business/chick-fil-a-has-raised-its-prices-more-than-20-as-inflation-rages/

,
659   Misc   2024 Jan 5, 10:21am  

The media, trying to spin Bidenomics as working, has a new refrain. "There is no wage/price spiral".

Then today's jobs report comes out for December and wages increased 4.1% year over year.

It is anyone's guess what January's will bring with what 25 States increasing their minimum wage, government employees getting the largest pay increase in 25 years, along with COLAs for everyone. People will look at January's year over year increase in wages and do a full freak out.
660   HeadSet   2024 Jan 5, 11:10am  

Misc says

government employees getting the largest pay increase in 25 years, along with COLAs for everyone.

Yep, and unfortunately too many of those government employees, along with Social Security and federal retirees will look at their increases and say "Yippee, Biden gave me a pay raise!"
661   AD   2024 Jan 5, 12:12pm  

HeadSet says

Yep, and unfortunately too many of those government employees, along with Social Security and federal retirees will look at their increases and say "Yippee, Biden gave me a pay raise!"


military and federal civil servants to get a 5.2% wage increase for 2024

that's 2% above annual inflation, so its not bad of an increase

.
662   Misc   2024 Jan 5, 12:23pm  

WTF do you think that will do to the inflation rate??????
663   AD   2024 Jan 5, 12:49pm  

Misc says


WTF do you think that will do to the inflation rate??????


guvmint-reported annual inflation is now at 3.2%

guvmint will continue to report annual inflation as trending downward at least until this november ?

any "adjustments" downward as far GDP and upward as far as inflation and unemployment will be made after november ?
,
664   Misc   2024 Jan 5, 1:38pm  

I have more faith in the Ministry of Truth (BLS). I think they will report an increase in inflation for January and then maybe trending up a bit depending on the price of oil as the unsubstantiated increase in wages creeps through to rent and OER for the rest of the year.
665   AD   2024 Jan 5, 8:29pm  

I read on Yahoo Finance today that 216,000 jobs were added in December 2023 versus a forecast of 175,000.

Out of those 216,000 jobs added last December, 52,000 were government jobs and 38,000 were healthcare/social assistance jobs.

Unemployment is now at 3.7% versus forecast of 3.8%.

More government related jobs may create inflation and government debt risks. I heard on news radio a lot of the increase in jobs are related to jobs supporting the surge in immigration.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-us-economy-adds-216000-jobs-shocking-wall-street-133957707.html

,
666   AD   2024 Jan 5, 8:37pm  

Misc says


the unsubstantiated increase in wages creeps through to rent and OER for the rest of the year.


https://www.federaltimes.com/management/pay-benefits/2023/12/22/federal-employees-cleared-for-52-pay-raise-in-2024/

I read above and the increase in 2023 was 4.6% and for 2024 it is 5.2%. There was a 2.7% increase in 2022. And a 1% increase in 2021

So I suspect the raise in 2024 is to catch up with inflation since it was very high in 2021 and 2022.

Likely the increase in federal civil servant wages in 2025 will be 3% or less.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273418/unadjusted-monthly-inflation-rate-in-the-us/#:~:text=In%20November%202023%2C%20prices%20had,data%20represents%20U.S.%20city%20averages.

.
667   AD   2024 Jan 5, 9:04pm  

ad says

I read on Yahoo Finance today that 216,000 jobs were added in December 2023 versus a forecast of 175,000.

Out of those 216,000 jobs added last December, 52,000 were government jobs and 38,000 were healthcare/social assistance jobs.

Unemployment is now at 3.7% versus forecast of 3.8%.

More government related jobs may create inflation and government debt risks. I heard on news radio a lot of the increase in jobs are related to jobs supporting the surge in immigration.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-us-economy-adds-216000-jobs-shocking-wall-street-133957707.html

,


From what I’ve read of the December 2023 jobs growth aggregates on CNBC, etc. is the 38,000 for healthcare and 21,000 for social assistance or social welfare.

The 52000 government jobs and 21000 social welfare jobs account for 33.79% of the December 2023 jobs growth :-/

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/05/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-december-2023-in-one-chart.html

,
668   AD   2024 Jan 11, 3:13pm  

.

Wage growth is slightly above inflation. See below summary.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
The consumer price index increased 0.3% in December and 3.4% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.2% and 3.2%

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI also rose 0.3% for the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%.

Much of the increase came due to rising shelter costs. The category rose 0.5% for the month and accounted for more than half the core CPI increase.

Wages adjusted for inflation posted a 0.2% gain on the month, while rising a modest 0.8% from a year ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/cpi-inflation-report-december-2023-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-december-higher-than-expected-pushing-the-annual-rate-to-3point4percent.html
670   Eman   2024 Jan 11, 4:51pm  

“Much of the increase came due to rising shelter costs. The category rose 0.5% for the month and accounted for more than half the core CPI increase.”

- This is the result of making building nose bleeding expensive due to zoning restrictions and all kinds of government fees. Then there’s high borrowing cost to build and/or buy.
671   Misc   2024 Jan 11, 8:57pm  

Nothing that millions and millions more illegals can't cure.
675   zzyzzx   2024 Jan 15, 6:12am  

The_Deplorable says





Some quick math here:
New House 3900 / Average income 1731 /yr = 1.733 years income (before taxes) to buy a house.
676   zzyzzx   2024 Jan 15, 6:21am  

Since this has more to do with inflation:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-aged-millionaires-row-average-101203138.html

Average US 50-something now has net worth over $1M
677   Misc   2024 Jan 15, 6:21am  

In 1938 people didn't use mortgages to buy property. They just saw anyone who did have their properties go back to the bank.

Also, most people's life savings were lost because of the thousands of bank failures.
678   Misc   2024 Jan 15, 6:24am  

zzyzzx says

Since this has more to do with inflation:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-aged-millionaires-row-average-101203138.html

Average US 50-something now has net worth over $1M


That's the Mean average including the super-wealthy. The Median is still a respectable $250k.
679   stereotomy   2024 Jan 15, 2:03pm  

zzyzzx says


The_Deplorable says






Some quick math here:
New House 3900 / Average income 1731 /yr = 1.733 years income (before taxes) to buy a house.


That's because back then, there were no 30-year, non-callable mortgages. They were 5 year balloon loans. Interest only for 5 years, then you had to pay off the note or be foreclosed on. This is why so many people lost their homes in the 30's. Banks called the notes on people who were 99% paid up, and worked their way down. The most responsible debtors were the first lambs to the slaughter.
680   AD   2024 Jan 15, 5:56pm  



681   Patrick   2024 Jan 20, 8:45am  

https://notthebee.com/article/biden-stopped-for-a-photo-op-in-a-north-carolina-restaurant-but-people-noticed-how-expensive-the-menu-got-since-he-was-last-there-in-2020-




It's true, though. Look at those numbers:

$4.99 for a junior tray in 2021, $6.59 today
$5.99 for a normal tray in 2021, $7.69 today
$2.99 for a "Big Double" then, $3.99 today
$1.39 for a corn dog then, $1.99 today
And on and on. Prices just keep going up!

« First        Comments 642 - 681 of 1,494       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste