Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12

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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12

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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am 147,768 views 1,541 comments

by AmericanKulak ➕follow (8) 💰tip ignore

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:
https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

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657

GNL 2024 Jan 4, 5:10am

ad says

GNL says

Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.

yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?

Chic-fil-a has increased prices 21% in the last 2 years. I'd say, food, housing and gas are probably the only(?) data points needed to calculate a greatly improved/accurate measure of inflation. Electronics have zero place in the inflation calculation. Cars might not have a place either because I believe prices are very much dependent on government influence/laws.

658

AD 2024 Jan 4, 10:07am

GNL says

Chic-fil-a has increased prices 21% in the last 2 years.

From what I've read there is no reported increase in their prices in 2020 and 2021. So is this increase representative of fast food
restaurant inflation from January 2020 to present day ?

https://nypost.com/2024/01/02/business/chick-fil-a-has-raised-its-prices-more-than-20-as-inflation-rages/

,

659 Misc 2024 Jan 5, 10:21am

The media, trying to spin Bidenomics as working, has a new refrain. "There is no wage/price spiral".

Then today's jobs report comes out for December and wages increased 4.1% year over year.

It is anyone's guess what January's will bring with what 25 States increasing their minimum wage, government employees getting the largest pay increase in 25 years, along with COLAs for everyone. People will look at January's year over year increase in wages and do a full freak out.

660

HeadSet 2024 Jan 5, 11:10am

Misc says

government employees getting the largest pay increase in 25 years, along with COLAs for everyone.

Yep, and unfortunately too many of those government employees, along with Social Security and federal retirees will look at their increases and say "Yippee, Biden gave me a pay raise!"

661

AD 2024 Jan 5, 12:12pm

HeadSet says

Yep, and unfortunately too many of those government employees, along with Social Security and federal retirees will look at their increases and say "Yippee, Biden gave me a pay raise!"

military and federal civil servants to get a 5.2% wage increase for 2024

that's 2% above annual inflation, so its not bad of an increase

.

662 Misc 2024 Jan 5, 12:23pm

WTF do you think that will do to the inflation rate??????

663

AD 2024 Jan 5, 12:49pm

Misc says

WTF do you think that will do to the inflation rate??????

guvmint-reported annual inflation is now at 3.2%

guvmint will continue to report annual inflation as trending downward at least until this november ?

any "adjustments" downward as far GDP and upward as far as inflation and unemployment will be made after november ?
,

664 Misc 2024 Jan 5, 1:38pm

I have more faith in the Ministry of Truth (BLS). I think they will report an increase in inflation for January and then maybe trending up a bit depending on the price of oil as the unsubstantiated increase in wages creeps through to rent and OER for the rest of the year.

665

AD 2024 Jan 5, 8:29pm

I read on Yahoo Finance today that 216,000 jobs were added in December 2023 versus a forecast of 175,000.

Out of those 216,000 jobs added last December, 52,000 were government jobs and 38,000 were healthcare/social assistance jobs.

Unemployment is now at 3.7% versus forecast of 3.8%.

More government related jobs may create inflation and government debt risks. I heard on news radio a lot of the increase in jobs are related to jobs supporting the surge in immigration.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-us-economy-adds-216000-jobs-shocking-wall-street-133957707.html

,

666

AD 2024 Jan 5, 8:37pm

Misc says

the unsubstantiated increase in wages creeps through to rent and OER for the rest of the year.

https://www.federaltimes.com/management/pay-benefits/2023/12/22/federal-employees-cleared-for-52-pay-raise-in-2024/

I read above and the increase in 2023 was 4.6% and for 2024 it is 5.2%. There was a 2.7% increase in 2022. And a 1% increase in 2021

So I suspect the raise in 2024 is to catch up with inflation since it was very high in 2021 and 2022.

Likely the increase in federal civil servant wages in 2025 will be 3% or less.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273418/unadjusted-monthly-inflation-rate-in-the-us/#:~:text=In%20November%202023%2C%20prices%20had,data%20represents%20U.S.%20city%20averages.

.

667

AD 2024 Jan 5, 9:04pm

ad says

I read on Yahoo Finance today that 216,000 jobs were added in December 2023 versus a forecast of 175,000.

Out of those 216,000 jobs added last December, 52,000 were government jobs and 38,000 were healthcare/social assistance jobs.

Unemployment is now at 3.7% versus forecast of 3.8%.

More government related jobs may create inflation and government debt risks. I heard on news radio a lot of the increase in jobs are related to jobs supporting the surge in immigration.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-us-economy-adds-216000-jobs-shocking-wall-street-133957707.html

,

From what I’ve read of the December 2023 jobs growth aggregates on CNBC, etc. is the 38,000 for healthcare and 21,000 for social assistance or social welfare.

The 52000 government jobs and 21000 social welfare jobs account for 33.79% of the December 2023 jobs growth :-/

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/05/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-december-2023-in-one-chart.html

,

668

AD 2024 Jan 11, 3:13pm

.

Wage growth is slightly above inflation. See below summary.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
The consumer price index increased 0.3% in December and 3.4% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.2% and 3.2%

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI also rose 0.3% for the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%.

Much of the increase came due to rising shelter costs. The category rose 0.5% for the month and accounted for more than half the core CPI increase.

Wages adjusted for inflation posted a 0.2% gain on the month, while rising a modest 0.8% from a year ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/cpi-inflation-report-december-2023-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-december-higher-than-expected-pushing-the-annual-rate-to-3point4percent.html

669

Patrick 2024 Jan 11, 4:46pm

670

Eman 2024 Jan 11, 4:51pm

“Much of the increase came due to rising shelter costs. The category rose 0.5% for the month and accounted for more than half the core CPI increase.”

- This is the result of making building nose bleeding expensive due to zoning restrictions and all kinds of government fees. Then there’s high borrowing cost to build and/or buy.

671 Misc 2024 Jan 11, 8:57pm

Nothing that millions and millions more illegals can't cure.

672 The_Deplorable 2024 Jan 11, 9:15pm

673

Eman 2024 Jan 11, 10:41pm

https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1745453214986809783?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

674

Patrick 2024 Jan 14, 9:11pm

675

zzyzzx 2024 Jan 15, 6:12am

The_Deplorable says

Some quick math here:
New House 3900 / Average income 1731 /yr = 1.733 years income (before taxes) to buy a house.

676

zzyzzx 2024 Jan 15, 6:21am

Since this has more to do with inflation:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-aged-millionaires-row-average-101203138.html

Average US 50-something now has net worth over $1M

677 Misc 2024 Jan 15, 6:21am

In 1938 people didn't use mortgages to buy property. They just saw anyone who did have their properties go back to the bank.

Also, most people's life savings were lost because of the thousands of bank failures.

678 Misc 2024 Jan 15, 6:24am

zzyzzx says

Since this has more to do with inflation:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-aged-millionaires-row-average-101203138.html

Average US 50-something now has net worth over $1M

That's the Mean average including the super-wealthy. The Median is still a respectable $250k.

679

stereotomy 2024 Jan 15, 2:03pm

zzyzzx says

The_Deplorable says

Some quick math here:
New House 3900 / Average income 1731 /yr = 1.733 years income (before taxes) to buy a house.

That's because back then, there were no 30-year, non-callable mortgages. They were 5 year balloon loans. Interest only for 5 years, then you had to pay off the note or be foreclosed on. This is why so many people lost their homes in the 30's. Banks called the notes on people who were 99% paid up, and worked their way down. The most responsible debtors were the first lambs to the slaughter.

680

AD 2024 Jan 15, 5:56pm

681

Patrick 2024 Jan 20, 8:45am

https://notthebee.com/article/biden-stopped-for-a-photo-op-in-a-north-carolina-restaurant-but-people-noticed-how-expensive-the-menu-got-since-he-was-last-there-in-2020-

It's true, though. Look at those numbers:

$4.99 for a junior tray in 2021, $6.59 today
$5.99 for a normal tray in 2021, $7.69 today
$2.99 for a "Big Double" then, $3.99 today
$1.39 for a corn dog then, $1.99 today
And on and on. Prices just keep going up!

682

AD 2024 Jan 20, 8:28pm

$1.29 per pound for chicken legs at Walmart in Florida panhandle

Remember back in 2019 there were $1.01 about a 5% annual increase in chicken leg prices since then :-/

683

RayAmerica 2024 Jan 21, 3:24pm

Proof the Middle Class in American Is Already Toast

"Inflation is way worse than everyone thinks."

https://rumble.com/v48fknb-proof-the-middle-class-in-american-is-already-toast.html

684

Eman 2024 Jan 21, 4:45pm

https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1749147837181358589?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

685

AD 2024 Jan 21, 5:30pm

Eman says

https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1749147837181358589?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

Eman, I'm not a gold or silver bug, but gold is at least continuing to track with (or exceed) inflation.

.

686

Eman 2024 Jan 21, 7:51pm

ad says

Eman says

https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1749147837181358589?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

Eman, I'm not a gold or silver bug, but gold is at least continuing to track with (or exceed) inflation.

.

The data suggests gold has about doubled the CPI in the last decade.

We all know how real estate has performed in the last decade. We also know how much rents have gone up, which means likely higher cash flow. The mortgage principal has also been paid down.

Real estate has 4 ways of making money: 1) value-add/sweat equity aka forced appreciation, 2) market appreciation, 3) cash flow, and 4) principal pay down.

Leverage is a double-edge sword. History suggests it has a high probability of success if it’s prudently used.

687

stereotomy 2024 Jan 22, 4:10pm

If you go back to around Y2K, then gold has outperformed all other markets (obviously not individual stock picks, but then again, we're all not Congress).

688

Eman 2024 Jan 22, 6:29pm

stereotomy says

If you go back to around Y2K, then gold has outperformed all other markets (obviously not individual stock picks, but then again, we're all not Congress).

This is where it gets muddy. I don’t believe gold can be leveraged like real estate where 20-25% down can control an asset.

My wife bought this house in 1999 for $300k. She put 20% down. It’s worth $1,486M now. Equivalent rent used to be $1,800/month and now $4.2k. How do we calculate the ROI? This is where I find Robert Shiller’s formula is off. Almost no one buys a house with 100% cash especially a starter house. Some people put down as little as 3%.

689

AD 2024 Jan 22, 7:17pm

Eman says

My wife bought this house in 1999 for $300k. She put 20% down. It’s worth $1,486M now. Equivalent rent used to be $1,800/month and now $4.2k. How do we calculate the ROI? This is where I find Robert Shiller’s formula is off. Almost no one buys a house with 100% cash especially a starter house. Some people put down as little as 3%.

ROI is based on equity of about $1,186,000 (accounts for mortgage balance and cost to sell) from the $60,000 deposit. I will assume worst case of $0 net income (i.e., revenue minus expenses equals zero).

From 1999 to present day, you earned about $19 for every $1 invested for that residential real estate investment.

.

690

Eman 2024 Jan 22, 9:14pm

Interestingly, we bought this house in 2013 for $440k as the housing market was coming out of the Great Recession. We had to put 25% down as it was an investment property. We rented it for $2,650/mo then and gradually raised it to $4k before we took the house back last year. It’s worth $1.4M today.

From an ROI perspective, I guess this one performs better. Right timing can really magnify the ROI.

691

Eman 2024 Jan 22, 9:16pm

AD says

Eman says

My wife bought this house in 1999 for $300k. She put 20% down. It’s worth $1,486M now. Equivalent rent used to be $1,800/month and now $4.2k. How do we calculate the ROI? This is where I find Robert Shiller’s formula is off. Almost no one buys a house with 100% cash especially a starter house. Some people put down as little as 3%.

ROI is based on equity of about $1,186,000 (accounts for mortgage balance and cost to sell) from the $60,000 deposit. I will assume worst case of $0 net income (i.e., revenue minus expenses equals zero).

From 1999 to present day, you earned about $19 for every $1 invested for that residential real estate investment.

.

I think gold was around $250-$300/oz around 2000? Then it has gone up about 8x in 24 years?

692 The_Deplorable 2024 Jan 24, 8:04pm