patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

Nobody's buying.



There's only one way out, and prices will remain sticky upwards, until they aren't.

Selling is not always a choice, sometimes it's mandatory from life changes. Eventually those changes will pile up.

If those are the only types of listings that come onto the market, they will sell fast and for full price. We need builders building.

Glock-n-Load says

We need builders building.

That's the only way prices go down. Happening in some regions due to demand and then people not buying. Short inventory here and little to no building. Our prices just go up (shrug).

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

Buyers are acting like they are in a deflationary environment, which means they sit on sidelines thinking prices will continue to drop.

For us, we bought our new 3 bedrm, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome about 2 miles from the white sand beach of the Florida panhandle in 2016 for $187,000.

Everything returns to the mean which I figure 4% annual appreciation over a +7 year timeline, so our townhome should be around $260,000 , whereas it could sell for $335,000 in early 2022.

A couple each earning $30K a year could afford a $260K townhome if the 30 year mortgage rate is 5.5% or less.

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https://rubino.substack.com/p/the-weirdest-housing-bubble-ever

So How Does This Resolve?
A normal housing boom ends with a bust in which prices are cut and mortgage interest rates fall sufficiently to make houses affordable again. But this is not a regular market, because young families don’t earn enough to get anywhere near today’s real estate. So something more extreme has to happen.

Not only do home prices and/or interest rates have to fall hard, but incomes on the lower rungs of the economic ladder have to rise dramatically. And it’s not clear how those two things can happen simultaneously. Like I said, very weird.

Looks like there was some slight overbuilding in Texas. About 60k families net move into Texas per year from other states. Over the last few years there has also been about 100k families moving into Texas internationally. Looks like the numbers moving in from overseas has dropped. Even so, it only looks like about a 6 month period before the excess inventory is absorbed by migration. There may be a little price decline, but probably not substantial.

Yes Patrick as Austin was one of the first metro areas to show a large increase in housing costs starting around late 2020, so its no surprise rents are dropping this much there

Texas real estate market is as much boom-bust as Florida

Even the proverbial cheerleader for real estate industry shows its a cooling rental market: https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/austin-tx/
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https://www.fhfa.gov/reports/foreclosure-prevention-refinance-and-fpm/2024/Q2

We shouldn't bail out homeloaners or banks.

We should have incentives for builders to keep building, so people aren't paying top dollar for 60-70 year old tick tack shacks.

If the rafters are toe nailed, cut the price 20% right off the bat.

Pound those prices to the ground; if you were depending on house appreciation to retire, you were double dumb. Dumb for missing out on 30-40 amazing years of stock market run up, dumb for thinking to think you're getting 6x median income for your ancient housing.

Just sold our house. Five offers. Escalation clauses kicked in getting us 6% over list. Great realtor. Advised correctly on setting price below what we expected to accept to encourage a bidding war which it did. Her service included an interior decorator who advised us on getting the home model ready, and a professional photographer. We accepted the second highest offer as it was an all cash offer with a quick close date and no charge rent back for 1.5 months. Boomer couple. The highest was a realtor which saved us 2.5% commission, but she hadn’t secured financing and put very little earnest money down. Too risky, but it did boost the escalation prices in the other offers. The third best offer was a 30’s something couple who seemed to be at the limit of their financing capability and just missed out. We did set a new comp for the hood, 5% higher than a similar model sold for a few months ago.

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

https://www.fhfa.gov/reports/foreclosure-prevention-refinance-and-fpm/2024/Q2

What have I told you DOGE? They're not going to foreclose this round. Not happening. It's way cheaper with forbearance, banks learned bigly around 2008. Most loans are performing as well. The bad ones you toss them under the bed for 2-4 months until the homeowner gets back on their feet.

That's how they handled it in the 70-90's because the loans were legit and my dick couldn't just go out and buy a house. I lived this for 15 years. Meet 1k people and ask them WFT were you thinking? That was my life. The Big Short is one of the few Hollywood movies that is accurate.

There's a little problem in Florida on the Gulf side; people don't like the hurricanes, increased insurance, HOA fees, and property taxes.

My friend is having difficulty selling her little condo near Sarasota.

Elevator: "Going down...."

clambo says

There's a little problem in Florida on the Gulf side;

No hurricanes on the Atlantic side or just much less frequent and/or powerful? I realize they can travel from West to East overland but that's not what I'm talking about.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Just sold our house. Five offers. Escalation clauses kicked in getting us 6% over list. Great realtor. Advised correctly on setting price below what we expected to accept to encourage a bidding war which it did. Her service included an interior decorator who advised us on getting the home model ready, and a professional photographer. We accepted the second highest offer as it was an all cash offer with a quick close date and no charge rent back for 1.5 months. Boomer couple. The highest was a realtor which saved us 2.5% commission, but she hadn’t secured financing and put very little earnest money down. Too risky, but it did boost the escalation prices in the other offers. The third best offer was a 30’s something couple who seemed to be at the limit of their financing capability and just missed out. We did set a new comp for the hood, 5% higher than a similar model sold for a few months ago.

Location?

The hurricanes are more frequent evidently on the Gulf side of Florida.

Either way people sometimes get tired of being in a panic over things which are out of their control.

GNL says

Location?

Montgomery County, MD, North Bethesda-Rockville-Gaithersburg general area.

clambo says

The hurricanes are more frequent evidently on the Gulf side of Florida.

Either way people sometimes get tired of being in a panic over things which are out of their control.

Have to factor in or discount price based on property insurance cost as the its part of calculating cap or capitalization rate for landlord investors, and also banks figure out what the monthly home ownership cost is such as principal, interest, HOA assessment fee, property insurance and property tax when lending out mortgages.

.............................

Forbes lists its January 2025 research of property insurance company rates in Florida

On average it is around $2,000 per year to insure a Florida home with replacement value of $350,000

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/homeowners-insurance/florida-best-homeowners-insurance

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AD says

On average it is around $2,000 per year to insure a Florida home with replacement value of $350,000

Then you gotta add in flood insurance.

Misc says

AD says

On average it is around $2,000 per year to insure a Florida home with replacement value of $350,000

Then you gotta add in flood insurance.

Not everyone in Florida, as we live about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle and the FEMA map was updated this year to continue to show up not in a flood zone and also the map update shows that previous homes in our HOA that were in the flood zone are no longer in the flood zone.

Misc says

AD says

On average it is around $2,000 per year to insure a Florida home with replacement value of $350,000

Then you gotta add in flood insurance.

Figure on average about $80 a month for flood insurance in addition to $180 a month for property insurance, so $260 a month for insurance compared to maybe spending $120 a month for insurance in a "comparable home in the middle of the USA"

But the $140 a month more for insurance is the premium for living in a home within about a 30 minute walk of white sand beaches and clear water of the Gulf of America

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With Florida property owners already paying more than four times the national average for home insurance, there is good reason to be nervous.

While home insurance rates increased 19.8% between 2021 and 2023, America's average rate of $2,377 was still far below the average rate of $10,996 paid by Florida homeowners.

U.S. average insurance: $2,377
Florida average insurance: $10,996
https://www.news-press.com/story/news/2024/04/01/florida-homeowners-insurance-rates-highest-rising-how-much-cost/73104723007/

As of 2024, the average cost of homeowners insurance in Florida is projected to be approximately $11,759, reflecting a 7% increase from the previous year. This figure is significantly higher than the national average of around $2,377, highlighting Florida’s unique risks, including hurricanes and flooding.

For context, Florida’s home insurance costs are substantially higher than other high-risk states like:

Louisiana: $6,354 (2023), projected $7,809 (2024)
Oklahoma: $5,444 (2023), projected $5,711 (2024)
Texas: $4,456 (2023), projected $4,437 (2024)
Mississippi: $4,312 (2023), projected $4,482 (2024).
In fact, Florida’s rates are nearly 12 times higher than those in Vermont, which has the lowest average premium at $918 per year.

Additionally, six of the 10 most expensive cities for homeowners insurance in the U.S. are located in Florida, all with average annual rates above $11,000.

https://www.greatflorida.com/blog/2024/how-much-is-home-insurance-in-florida/#:~:text=Average%20Cost%20of%20Homeowners%20Insurance,to%20their%20vulnerability%20to%20hurricanes.

Would like to see the median, but I bet it's much higher than the national average.

Grok:

I assume you're asking for the median home insurance cost in Florida. Based on the most recent data available as of March 05, 2025, the average annual homeowners insurance premium in Florida varies depending on the source and coverage specifics, but I’ll clarify that "median" data isn’t explicitly provided in most studies—averages are more commonly reported. However, I can give you a solid estimate based on the averages, which are often close to medians in large datasets unless heavily skewed.

From the information I have:
One reliable source indicates the average annual home insurance cost in Florida for 2024 is around $2,288 for a policy with $300,000 in dwelling coverage (Policygenius, 2024). This translates to about $191 per month.

Another source suggests a much higher average of $4,419 per year (or roughly $368 per month) for a policy with a 2% hurricane deductible, while it’s $2,401 per year (about $200 per month) without it (Insurance.com, 2025).

A more extreme figure comes from Insurify, estimating Florida’s average at $10,996 per year in 2023 (approximately $916 per month), projected to rise to $11,759 in 2024 (around $980 per month), though this likely reflects higher coverage levels or coastal areas prone to greater risk.

These discrepancies arise because Florida’s insurance costs fluctuate wildly based on location (coastal vs. inland), coverage amount, deductibles, and risk factors like hurricanes. The national average for comparison is around $2,377 per year (or $198 per month), meaning Florida’s costs are consistently higher—often 2 to 4 times the U.S. average.

Since you asked for the "median," and exact median figures aren’t directly cited, the middle ground of these averages—considering typical policies with $250,000 to $350,000 in dwelling coverage—suggests a likely median range of $2,288 to $4,419 annually (or $191 to $368 monthly) for a standard Florida homeowner in 2024/2025. The lower end ($2,288) might better reflect inland areas with less hurricane exposure, while the higher end ($4,419) aligns with broader statewide averages including coastal risks.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/XGlFB79TVe5ukCUPdiGDHzrnj

From what I hear from Florida Real Estate Youtubers, for non-Palatial ordinary homes a few miles inland, it's between 1-2% of home price - $4 and $8k/year - for a $400k house.

Another reason for sellers to greatly discount selling prices.

AmericanKulak says

With Florida property owners already paying more than four times the national average for home insurance, there is good reason to be nervous.

While home insurance rates increased 19.8% between 2021 and 2023, America's average rate of $2,377 was still far below the average rate of $10,996 paid by Florida homeowners.

U.S. average insurance: $2,377
Florida average insurance: $10,996
https://www.news-press.com/story/news/2024/04/01/florida-homeowners-insurance-rates-highest-rising-how-much-cost/73104723007/

We pay about $1900 annually for HO-3 insurance on our townhome (replacement value of $280,000 and 2% deductible) about 2 miles from the white sands beaches of the Florida panhandle. We are not required to have flood insurance, but it would cost us about $40 a month for flood insurance.

We were paying about $700 back in 2016 when we bought our brand new townhome (3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, and 2 car garage)

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Some other things I'm discounting:

Old fashioned, out of date by 3 generations non-walk in closet with accordion or slide doors in the Master: -7% of home price
Grossly obsolete no access to bathroom from Master: -7% of home price

Even pre-PET Computer era homes have a bathroom accessible directly from Master.

Sellers need to update the home to minimal standard set 50 years past to expect anything like average prices. Al Bundy's Master almost certainly has direct bathroom access and probably a walk-in (perhaps not by much) closet.

Be tough, Buyers! It's up to the seller to update the house to ancient standards long since established back when Fly Robin Fly and Nutbush City Limits were hit songs, or discount heavily. Unless it's a genuinely finely made Victorian-era house with gables. IE Not found in a suburban subdivision and made postwar.

Keeping in mind USB wall ports in the Kitchen and Master are already standard in most "Middle Class" homes (and RVs!) built the past 5-7 years

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

GNL says

Location?

Montgomery County, MD, North Bethesda-Rockville-Gaithersburg general area.

Yep, not surprised at all. Who was your Realtor, he/she might be a client of ours?

AmericanKulak says

Keeping in mind USB wall ports in the Kitchen and Master are already standard in most "Middle Class" homes (and RVs!) built the past 5-7 years

Even so, that is a quick easy handy man install.

AmericanKulak says

It's up to the seller to update the house to ancient standards long since established back when Fly Robin Fly and Nutbush City Limits were hit songs, or discount heavily.

-- How did you manage to preserve your mid-century modern house in such original condition?
-- Mostly by laziness and having no money.

Eric Holder says

-- How did you manage to preserve your mid-century modern house in such original condition?
-- Mostly by laziness and having no money.

Pretty much. Maybe I'll play with zillow tonight and find some hilarious delusions compared to new or recent builds.

EDIT: Holy Shit! I haven't looked since around Christmas but it looks like homeloaners finally got the message. Tons of houses now just over $200k that were ~$300k just a couple of months ago. The gaps are starting to open, at least with the 80s-90s houses and the new ones which were priced only $30-40k apart. Though some are still smoking Copium like this 1960s-era place that even Jeannie would find too small: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1405-Stewart-Ave-Melbourne-FL-32935/43466916_zpid/



Eyeballing it here but the non-new inventory under $300k has to have at least doubled, maybe tripled. Palm Bay area.

Waiting to see if townhouses in Sat Beach start coming down, nothing yet. Just before COVID there were plenty on the market.

Glock-n-Load says

Yep, not surprised at all. Who was your Realtor, he/she might be a client of ours?

Don’t want to dox myself, sorry.

Moved to my bitching about slovenly old overpriced houses thread
https://patrick.net/post/1383847/2025-03-05-muh-updated-house

Well, well, well...





https://youtu.be/iKdtyDnGM-o?si=Qu_8_BUXwWICz62H

Yeah, heard about this in the car.

Apparently it's some quite substantial # of first time FHA loan holders the past couple of years.

So the housing market is even worse without those buyers.

By the way, I saw more than one or two foreclosures in Zillow last week.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Just sold our house. Five offers. Escalation clauses kicked in getting us 6% over list. Great realtor. Advised correctly on setting price below what we expected to accept to encourage a bidding war which it did. Her service included an interior decorator who advised us on getting the home model ready, and a professional photographer. We accepted the second highest offer as it was an all cash offer with a quick close date and no charge rent back for 1.5 months. Boomer couple. The highest was a realtor which saved us 2.5% commission, but she hadn’t secured financing and put very little earnest money down. Too risky, but it did boost the escalation prices in the other offers. The third best offer was a 30’s something couple who seemed to be at the limit of their financing capability and just missed out. We did set a new comp for the hood, 5% higher than a similar model sold for a few months ago.

what state and city are you in? curiosity only. as i live in the country, it’s different here.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

what state and city are you in? curiosity only. as i live in the country, it’s different here

Maryland, Montgomery County, the greater Gaithersburg/Rockville/North Bethesda area.

Maryland that’s close to DC, all government contracting companies are there. that place will have buyers forever and ever

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https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/sellers-4-9-million-house-195454362.html

The sellers of a $4.9 million house bragged their kids went to Harvard and Stanford. It might've found them a buyer.

A Palo Alto house listed for sale Friday had a line about where its owners' kids went to college.

Commenters said the brag was a sign of how much the area values academic and professional success.

The sentence about colleges was quickly removed. The $4.9 million home is already listed as pending.

When the sellers of a $4.9 million house in Palo Alto listed it on March 7, they chose a distinct sales pitch.

Play up where their kids went to college.

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AD says

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/sellers-4-9-million-house-195454362.html

Lol, the image on the Yahoo link is unrelated to the actual house. Yahoo shows this:



Actual house, from https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-home-value-price-retirement-tiny-home-palo-alto-2025-1



So they invested $63K in 1975 and the house now sold for $4.9M. Let's compare that to the stock market:

Me: How much would 63,000 invested in the stock market in 1975 be worth in 2025?

ChatGPT: If $63,000 was invested in the stock market in 1975 and grew at an average annual rate of 10%, it would be worth approximately $7.4 million in 2025. This is an estimate based on average returns. The actual amount could vary depending on the specific investments, market conditions, and timing of the investment.