patrick.net

MolotovCocktail says

I was born and raised in San Jose. One of my elementary schools I attended in 1978 - 1980 was shut down in the 1990s. Not enough kids in the district. Last I heard it was rented out to a child care company.

That was way back then. More have since been shut down. Same reason

Where in SJ was your school? A retired employee from the elementary school I attended in East SJ in the 1970's told me that the student population is less than half what it was at its peak about 20 years ago. It's happening all over the Bay Area, schools dying out. At least in some measure this balances the challenge of recruiting new teachers to a region with insane living cost.

As far as I know, Branham HS in San Jose is the only school that reopened when child population picked up. And that reopening was in the year 1999.

MolotovCocktail says

Almost everyone I went to school with bailed. Too unaffordable even back then when a $300k house was a shocking number.

Me too. I have more SJ Homies living in the Central Valley and Sierra Foothills than here in the Bay Area.

MolotovCocktail says

Some may have reopened because of the surge in H1Bs and illegals over the past 20 years tho.

Some new Santa Clara Unified District schools opened up in the mostly-below-sea-level former wetlands of the SF Bay where massive multifamily communities have recently been built for the H-1s. I've walked through some of those neighborhoods. You can walk for a long time before seeing another non-Indian. And that non-Indian will be a Chinese, not a haolie, not a Latino. I've walked past cricket games (never a baseball / softball game) and Bollywood Style group dancing. Feels like I'm in the concrete canyons of Mumbai, with more pleasant weather and sanitation.

The wave of illegals or legal-migrants who take up residence in SJ are all working age adults who pack like rats in the less expensive shabbier places (like my neighborhood). They don't have the time, space, nor resources for kids. This is why the school districts where such kids would have attended are in a tightening enrollment death spiral worse than the other districts that also face similar demographic trend.

Prop-13 or not, the high price of owning/renting here is turning SJ and the Bay Area into an Old Folks Home.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Where in SJ was your school?

That was Calero Elementary. There were two other schools within a couple of miles of it. I went there for grades 5-6. Had to be bussed from 6 miles or so away. Stipe Elementary, where I attended K - 4, was a lot closer. I even walked home two or so times. But because Calero was losing kids and development of housing near Stipe was taking off, they bussed us.

Holy Shit, they turned it into an alternative high school:



We are an alternative school of choice. We are not a continuation high school.

Calero High School offers a comprehensive, college prep education (A-G curriculum) in a nurturing, small school learning environment. We provide opportunities for credit recovery, career pathways and college readiness.

And Stipe is still open. It is a STEM k-6. WTF? STEM?

Woop...Woop...the Case/Shiller finally went down. It dropped .3% from the prior month.

For those expecting a big drop in prices, do you think it will be slow like over the course of a decade or do you think it will be quick ???

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

Misc says

For those expecting a big drop in prices, do you think it will be slow like over the course of a decade or do you think it will be quick ???

Like good sex: start slow, then speeds up.

MolotovCocktail says

Holy Shit, they turned it into an alternative high school:

When the gyms were closed during the pandemic I got my cardio walking all over the city. I remember walking past that school. I was surprised the sign said ESUHSD. I thought I knew all the schools in that district, which I attended back in the day. When I got home I looked at the web site, to figure out this is a sort of a Continuation School (not really a traditional high school). Your post jogged my memory a bit. Today i went back to check out the website.

In a sense, this school is part and parcel of the tsunami of declining enrollment due to demographic changes.

The fact that they make a point of saying they're not a Continuation School, belies the reality. The district's Continuation School is Foothill, on the other side of town. Calero is not a "Continuation School". It's an "Alternative School".

Since the district, - even lower performing schools in the (formerly) rough neighborhoods, stress AP classes, advanced math like calculus and beyond, etc, the not-so-challenging course offerings shown on Calero's website are for "at-risk" students. Not at risk of being back in the juvie (that's Foothill), but "at risk" of not getting a diploma. The website has the feel of school for dropouts who did not have behavior problems, to "come back" to get their high school diploma, with not-so-challenging classes.

I think it's indicative of the declining enrollment trend because the district wants those dropouts back to capture state dollars that are based on enrollment. The "alternative school" provides a setting without the pressure of the nowadays' curricula and expectations. If a drop out gets the GED without attending class in the district, the district doesn't get the state funding.

Glock-n-Load says

"I’m not so sure it’s a bubble."

If the average price of a house exceeds three-times the average income then
you are looking at a housing bubble. Alan Greenspan (then Fed Chairman)
deliberately started this bubble.
That is another reason why the Fed needs to be abolished.

The_Deplorable says

If the average price of a house exceeds three-times the average income then
you are looking at a housing bubble. Alan Greenspan (then Fed Chairman)
deliberately started this bubble.

Here in SJ it's 10x.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Fortwaye says

out here lots of farmers who are 2nd and 3rd generation

Where is out here?

Gods Country, Idaho

Fortwaye says

B.A.C.A.H. says
Fortwaye says

out here lots of farmers who are 2nd and 3rd generation

Where is out here?

Gods Country, Idaho

Are you one of the participants who relocated away from the LA area?

If yes, if you're willing, please share a summary of it: what you like, what you don't like, overall satisfaction of the move, how locals treated you.

The_Deplorable says

Glock-n-Load says

"I’m not so sure it’s a bubble."

If the average price of a house exceeds three-times the average income then
you are looking at a housing bubble. Alan Greenspan (then Fed Chairman)
deliberately started this bubble.
That is another reason why the Fed needs to be abolished.

Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Here in SJ it's 10x.

While I believe it, that's insane. We're 2x's coming up in the next 45 days with the mortgage. Our property taxes are going to suck though. $15k/yr probably. We were negative the average price to income on our old house. I can't even fathom 10x's. That would be $3.6M in rural IL for us. 100 acres and a 10k sq. ft. mansion. No I don't and wouldn't want that.

Not sure what that gets y'all in SJ. Too lazy to search.

GNL says

Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.

I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".

B.A.C.A.H. says

GNL says

Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.

I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".

I think you’re missing the point.

B.A.C.A.H. says

GNL says

Not if there is no intention of ever caring if those below xxx income are able to purchase a home.

I think bubble refers to a figure of merit related to price-to-value. Not who are the buyers-and-sellers of overpriced assets and not emotions like "caring".

Everything sells for what it is worth. Regulations and profit margins will keep housing costs high. Tech/AI will continue to push workers down. This equals housing that is too expensive for more and more people. This is, or course, just my opinion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/aussie-billionaire-ceo-fires-workers-replacing-them-with-ai/ss-AA1JyrqU?pc=HCTS

that company public? i’d short their stock if i had spare change in brokerage.

Fortwaye says

that company public? i’d short their stock if i had spare change in brokerage.

I think it is Atlassian Corp NASDAQ: TEAM.
Their products are very popular around though there are almost similar free open source products available.
It’s not only his company but soon many others will likely follow the same path with AI

GNL says

Everything sells for what it is worth.

You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?

B.A.C.A.H. says

You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?

At least the houses had an intrinsic, tangible value.

B.A.C.A.H. says

GNL says

Everything sells for what it is worth.

You mean like tulips in the 1630's?
Dot.com stocks at the turn of the century?
Houses in 2007?

Yes

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year

Puta Gorda, Florida has passed Austin as the worst performing city

Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.20% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.0% in June, down from up 2.3% YoY in May. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023.

The seasonally adjusted FMHPI decreased -0.20% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. This was the 5th consecutive MoM decrease in the SA index. Over the last 3 months, this index has decreased at a 2.4% annual rate and decreased at a 1.1% annual rate over the last 6 months.

House prices are under pressure!

32 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted

As of June, 32 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-5.4), West Virginia (-3.7%), Colorado (-2.9%), and Florida (-2.7%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 250 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 12 of the 30 cities are in Florida.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 2.0% YoY in June) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 2.3% YoY in May. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will likely be up slightly less year-over-year in the June report compared to May.

As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-declined-f84

Puta Gorda, FL 😂

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

"As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth
(year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025."

It looks to me that we are witnessing the collapse of the housing bubble.

The_Deplorable says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says
"As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025."

It looks to me that we are witnessing the collapse of the housing bubble.

We took 5-8 years off of growth of any kind. 2012-2015 is when it started coming up from the VALLEY. We've hit a peak that has a high floor on the downside, in most places at least. There's no crash. Most non-coastal areas will be steady and increase. There will be crashes in micro markets due to out migration. Shit schools and crime in cities.

https://fortune.com/2025/07/31/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-zillow-mortgage-rates/
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Zillow say mortgage rates can’t fall enough for Americans to afford a home

On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added.

zzyzzx says

https://fortune.com/2025/07/31/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-zillow-mortgage-rates/
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Zillow say mortgage rates can’t fall enough for Americans to afford a home

On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added.

Someone should break the news to certain idiots then...https://patrick.net/post/1383080/2025-01-03-housing-prices-will-not-go-down

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-drop-14-metros/

Home Prices Drop in 14 Major U.S. Metros, Including Parts of Florida and Texas, As Buyers Gain Upper Hand

What would be considered a crash?

zzyzzx says

On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added.

Coastal as usual. Midwest is doing fine as usual. Fact is the Midwest is going to boom with tariffs. The Great Lakes and Mississippi river valley areas are going to do well. No one is building a factory on the west coast or east coast. WI, MI, IN, OH, PA, IL, IA, MO are going to be at the core of it.

Between refineries, rail, rivers, lakes, solid interstates and state highways, cheap labor, multiple large airports, minimal traffic, secure power supply, etc. Our only disasters are flooding and tornados. Which are minimal on the overall economy. Low cost of living nationally speaking.

If tariffs have the intended effect, I agree.

What’s the best way to track that going forward?

WookieMan says

Most non-coastal areas will be steady and increase.

Subtract out FL from the chart in 6733 and you’ve got mostly non-coastal areas. Just sayin'.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Subtract out FL from the chart in 6733 and you’ve got mostly non-coastal areas. Just sayin'.

I think people here conflate the difference of coastal areas. If you're within 3-4 hours of the coast you can wake up and be on the beach in no time and have a full day there or a weekend. That's coastal. Nashville, TN is not coastal. St. Louis, MO is not coastal. Iowa City, IA is not coastal. The Great Lakes are not coastal as it's seasonal for 3 months total during the year if that.

The big % drop is all happening in coastal areas. Prove me wrong.

WookieMan says

If you're within 3-4 hours of the coast you can wake up and be on the beach in no time and have a full day there or a weekend. That's coastal.

AGAIN. Stop with your coastal bullshit. Just STOP

WookieMan says

If you're within 3-4 hours of the coast you can wake up and be on the beach in no time

Noone in their right mind would consider Stockton, CA, to be in a coastal area, so your definition is whacked. Nonetheless, in that list, Idaho Falls, ID, Austin, TX, Pueblo, CO, Kileen, TX, Morganton, WV, Parkersburg, WV, Charleston, WV, Wichita, KS, Beckley, WV. So 18 non-FL’s, and even under your strained definition, 50% are in non-coastal regions.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Noone in their right mind would consider Stockton, CA, to be in a coastal area, so your definition is whacked.

He didn't say 'cities' this time, either. He had more credibility pull there.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Charleston, WV

It's a day drive to Virgina Beach for a weekend. Not a big deal. I drive to Duluth, MN and Door County, WI at least 2-5 times a year all 5-7 hour drives. Stockton, CA is under 2 hours to Half Moon Bay. Not sure if it's worth going to but that's nothing. It's coastal. Las Vegas to Los Angles is 4hour-30min. These are all weekend trips to coastal areas. People over pay to live there and when shit crashes in those markets, it makes the national look bad.

Austin, TX to Corpus Cristi. 3hours 30min. Another example. KS, ID and CO are non-starters on the national average. CO with Denver I suppose but Pueblo, CO? https://sty.ink/10km2 $200-500k? Even a 10% drop is nothing. Sure there are some expensive properties, but it's cheap relatively speaking for that part of CO.

You hear all these rumors about Hollywood and its stars bailing out. There are a lot of Beverly Hills seven figure mega mansions for sale.

Interest rates are historically normal, even on the low side. Higher interest rates mean that people who aren’t financially sophisticated - they don’t engage in stock and real estate speculation - can get a decent bank return. It makes their lives easier to plan, less stressful.

We are only pushing for lower rates because that is good for financial speculators who can borrow cheap and make huge bets through hedge funds or private equity gambles - and cut bait if it goes south. Low rates are not good for the average citizen. And the other reason is we have buried ourselves in so much government debt that we won’t be able to pay it if interest rates stay the same or increase because we have to roll over the debt all the time. That government debt is directly related to financial speculators who screwed us over in 2008 and later.

So we are demanding lower rates that won’t help the normal man - so that we can save the government’s balance sheet - and give financiers more opportunity to borrow money for nothing and continue to buy up all assets and make ownership harder for the people.

https://x.com/FischerKing64/status/1951409794927174043

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Noone in their right mind would consider Stockton, CA, to be in a coastal area, so your definition is whacked

I visit Stockton frequently as I have family there. They frequently travel to the beaches in summer to escape the Central Valley Heat.

During non-commute hours it's about 75 minute drive from SJ.

For decades I worked alongside Stockton commuter residents in tech employment in Silicon Valley.

And the fact they have an inland deep water port qualifies for MolotovCocktail's definition of Coastal Region (like Duluth, Pittsburgh and all the rest of those ports along inland waterways).

B.A.C.A.H. says

And the fact they have an inland deep water port qualifies for MolotovCocktail's definition of Coastal Region (like Duluth, Pittsburgh and all the rest of those ports along inland waterways).

Those are lakes. No one says they live in coastal Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.

https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/coastal

Duluth, MN is 100% not a "coastal" area. You can say it's a coastline where land meets the water, but is not "coastal" at all. Ocean or sea. Great Lakes are not that. I live here and know what people call it. They just happen to be massive lakes. Shoreline is the common term around here and I live here.

Fact is the Great Lakes region is not losing value outside of a tiny stretch of MN that happens to be on a lake. MN is losing value as people leave Minneapolis. The same is true for the other inland states with larger cities. Sell your $500k property and move to a further out property for $350k. Prices look like they're going down, even though they're going up elsewhere. It drags down the median and average.

Fact is 40% of people live in coastal areas: https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/economics-and-demographics.html#:~:text=Almost%2040%25%20Live%20on%20the,land%20mass%20(excluding%20Alaska).

A 5% drop in coastal areas will bring the national median price down a ton. It's not a judgement of those areas, it's just reality. You will lose more value in a coastal area, it's doesn't mean a crash for the other 60% when you use national numbers.