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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,321 views  187 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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82   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 18, 3:33pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

mell says


vote for that matter


Men DO NOT VOTE compared to women even when they have the free time, period.


On.the good news front, although this is anecdotal:

MSNBC: We should note, we did not find a single person who audibly would tell us that they voted for Kamala Harris. These were Trump supporters getting out to vote early in the all-important Mojave County. Take a listen to some of our conversations.

VOTER: Well, the difference is gonna be that we're -- everybody's coming out early.

MSNBC: Why did you vote early this year?

VOTER #2: Honestly, because Donald Trump told me to.

MSNBC: We went one man who did not vote in 2020, but he said he was horrified by the state of the country, so he's voting here in 2024.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/10/17/jesse_watters_kamala_harris_faltering_candidacy_threatens_the_end_of_the_obama-biden_era.html
83   WookieMan   2024 Oct 18, 4:34pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Men DO NOT VOTE compared to women even when they have the free time, period.

Don't think that will hold true this time. Problem is swing states are dictated by individual districts and a few votes. I think blacks will be the deciding factor. Trump I think has seen a 10 point swing since 2016 in male blacks.

If that's the case PA, MI, WI and MN are all red. He could lose NV and AZ in that scenario. I think he wins them though. Might be some violence but I think the left LGBTQ group tucks their dick between their legs and walks away on this one.

0 people voted for Kamala in a primary. Maybe a write in I suppose. Some of the female candidates in '20 were pretty bright. Confident. Kamala 8 years later is still an idiot. They didn't like round 1, not sure why they like her now either after 3.5 years of bull shit she's been a part of.
84   mell   2024 Oct 18, 7:20pm  

WookieMan says

mell says


Because they work far less than men

Eh, can't say I agree with this. Men are just lazy in most cases. I live in a different part of the country, but I'll take my golf cart drinking a beer to the voting location playing some music at a respectful volume.

The problem is cities. It seems like it should be convenient. It's not. Should be close by. It's not. It why Dems can ballot harvest so well or organize transportation for older or illegals to vote. The republican men in cities are idiots. It's not that they're working, they're just lazy.

There's not a state I know of where a company can penalize you if you're late because of voting. IL should be red. The city men just give up. I'm sure it's similar in CA. Why vote? It doesn't count. That shit needs to stop.

It's a generalization with exceptions as usual, but for the most part true. It's in their biology to nest, bear and raise children, not to work.
85   komputodo   2024 Oct 18, 8:29pm  

WookieMan says

They didn't like round 1, not sure why they like her now either after 3.5 years of bull shit she's been a part of.

i don't think they like her...I think it's more like they hate TRUMP.
87   Ceffer   2024 Oct 19, 12:53pm  

Scraping the bottom of the barrel for the last daft idiot in the Idiopolous. Hail the Chris Wallace Assertion Fallacy! Hail the Owl Glasses and the talking head toupee! Like AF used to say, that's a face you just want to smash a fist into.

https://t.me/WeTheMedia/110061
88   Ceffer   2024 Oct 19, 1:03pm  

"KamalaToe, you ignorant slut. Move over and let the Illuminati Witch Bad Girl take over the reins of Armageddon."

https://t.me/tribunalsandexecutions/485560
91   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 20, 2:41pm  

Nate Silver and the PolyMarket Scam:

He suckers betters into putting their money towards one candidate...then pulls the football away at the last minute so that the House can clean up.

You all know Nate works for PolyMarket, right?




92   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 20, 3:15pm  

“If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.”
94   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 21, 12:39pm  

This article is actually an analysis of the state of the election, with the Trump Stunt @ Mickey D's only part of it;



https://hotair.com/generalissimo/2024/10/21/when-kamalas-joy-got-trumped-by-a-happy-meal-n3796069
97   Eric Holder   2024 Oct 22, 4:24pm  

What were "betting markets" predicting 2 weeks before 2020 election? 2016?
98   WookieMan   2024 Oct 22, 5:28pm  

Patrick says





She looks like shit regardless of polling or anything else. If she can't take care of herself, I ain't voting for her. She looks like a fucking turkey.

Trump is overweight, but shows up 10-16 hours a day. Kamala cannot say that.
99   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 22, 9:27pm  

One of the few talking heads on TV that has an actual brain:

101   clambo   2024 Oct 22, 9:47pm  

How the fuck do they get polling "extremely close"?
Don't they call land lines and usually welfare queens and other losers are home watching TV and answer the poll?
Welfare queens and assorted losers of course aren't going to be big Trump fans.
102   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 23, 10:50am  

One would think they at least switched to calling cell phones by now... I mean, it's been 8 years since their last fuckup, enough time to learn.

On the other hand some party operative said that public polls have always been mostly useless and one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.
103   Ceffer   2024 Oct 23, 11:05am  

Election isn't close by a longshit and everybody knows it. The DELUSION of close is the goal to make the cheat appear credible.

You can't hate these people enough.
105   zzyzzx   2024 Oct 29, 10:28am  

RWSGFY says

one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.


We don't have access to those things, but when you see Trump holding rallies in NY, that should tell you something.
106   WookieMan   2024 Oct 29, 1:10pm  

zzyzzx says

one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.

We don't have access to those things, but when you see Trump holding rallies in NY, that should tell you something.

I don't think it's impossible he could win NY. I'd be slightly shocked, but I do think it's a possibility. No one even voted for Kamala. Turnout is going to be abysmal for Dems.

If a man votes for her it should be automatic dick removal and jam it in a purple haired lesbians mouth.

I hate typing this stuff on the internet at risk of being correct and questioned, but I don't think Trump makes it to election day. I am voting for him to be clear to any bots scanning webpages. If anything he should pull a Biden and get in the basement now or just do podcasts for the next week.

Wisconsin he'd hit a home run with Charlie Berens and the You Betcha guy in WI and the Midwest if he jumped on that show. It would overlap MN, IL and MI. He's not really a podcaster, but if he can do 30 minutes with Trump he'll win some women over in the surrounding states. For whatever reason women find the act they put on to be hysterical. About 3M subs between the two and likely mostly midwest. It would be a good 30-60 minute interview bet if he has staffers that stumble upon patnet for some crazy reason.
107   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 29, 1:11pm  

Just did my ballot. RFK, Jr was on it.
108   HeadSet   2024 Oct 29, 3:37pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Just did my ballot. RFK, Jr was on it.

What state?
112   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 30, 5:26pm  

Booger says






What did that Miller dude predict for 2020 and 2016?
113   Patrick   2024 Oct 30, 6:57pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says







I think AI bots are out in the millions now, telling Republicans not to vote because it's hopeless, they'll cheat again, blah blah.

But we all MUST vote for Trump if only to indicate to the deep state scum how much we hate them all.

And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.
115   WookieMan   2024 Oct 31, 2:57am  

Patrick says

And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.

I'm voting in person. Likely won't make a difference in IL, but I'll be there 6am so I don't have to wait in line. As a former postal worker I'd never trust mail in voting. If you put it in your outgoing mail and have a Trump sign in your yard and have a Dem carrier, they'll toss it. Not joking. I also don't want to vote early because then the cheat becomes easier.

It's why mail in voting should be forbidden. Not gonna lie, outgoing mail if they have a Harris sign in the yard it would get lost on my former route. I don't work for USPS anymore, but I can promise you no one would know. I'd just set it in a separate container/bag and dump it at a gas station. I did nothing illegal with USPS, but if I was still there, I'd toss ballots if they were obvious. Hence why you should vote in person. There are a lot of butt hurt liberals that work in the post office. Unless it's certified there's no way to know if your vote got counted via mail in. At least in IL.
116   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Nov 1, 5:04pm  

Patrick says

And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.


Nope. No landslide. It's all crashing now.

We'll be lucky if it is a close win.

Suburbs are going full libtard.
117   mell   2024 Nov 1, 5:20pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says


Patrick says


And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.


Nope. No landslide. It's all crashing now.

We'll be lucky if it is a close win.

Suburbs are going full libtard.


It's going to be a decisive win without cheating. He will win NV where early voting has a republican lead for the first time, GA, and either WI, MN, or PA, or NH. Even in PA where dems outnumber repubs 2:1 in early voting, it was 3:1 in 2020. Without cheating it will be decisive, since there will be cheating I also predict a narrow win. PA is definitely not in the bag, more of a toss up with a slight Trump lead maybe, but he won't need it if he gets GA, NV and WI, MN or NH
118   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2024 Nov 1, 8:12pm  

Booger says






If that’s the map, Trump likely wins Colorado and Oregon also.
119   WookieMan   2024 Nov 1, 8:50pm  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

If that’s the map, Trump likely wins Colorado and Oregon also.

Might be the map. I definitely don't see WI as a loss. MI I don't know as well, but I'd somewhat shocked if he lost there. All he needs is one or two of them though. PA would sink the Harris ship either way. She has to take Texas or FL somehow to win in my opinion. Low probability of that happening.
120   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Nov 1, 9:22pm  

Booger says






No way he's carrying Minnesota and New Mexico.
121   Ceffer   2024 Nov 1, 10:24pm  

I was at the gym today on a machine overlooking the intersection outside. I saw a guy acting very weird. He parked his car across from a small park where homeless hang out, walking across the street looking all around him while he did it, then tore something off of the telephone pole. I could see it was a vote Trump sign. He crumpled it up and took it back across the street to his car and drove away.

He coulda been one of those YouTube weirdos. Thing that's stranger yet is seeing a Trump sign anywhere out in public in Santa Cruz.

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