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Housing prices will not go down...


               
2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   22,573 views  617 comments

by anon5525   follow (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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162   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 3, 6:55pm  

MolotovCocktail says

ForcedTQ says



It is going to take nothing short of prospective buyers actually saving up large 40-50% down payments to be able to purchase now.


Which means prices will have to fall. A LOT.

Which means this thread's author's main premise is bullshit.

Which means...






163   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 3, 6:57pm  

anon5525 says

. because immigration will not go down


Retardation this ^^^^

Absolute proof:

MolotovCocktail says

Fuck yeah!





So why do we let moronbots post on PatNet?
165   AD   2025 Aug 4, 12:38am  

MolotovCocktail says


anon5525 says


. because immigration will not go down


Retardation this ^^^^

Absolute proof:

MolotovCocktail says


Fuck yeah!





So why do we let moronbots post on PatNet?



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Given most of the undocumented or illegal immigrants likely live in crowded housing conditions and in substandard housing, I'm not sure it would have that much an effect on the housing market.

If anything there may be an improvement in standard of living or quality of life in regards to living arrangements.

A massive layoff occurrence of clerical and white collar professionals would have the greater effect on middle to upper class housing, including average-to-above-average townhomes.
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166   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2025 Aug 4, 1:02am  

^^^^ disagree depending on the actual number of deportation(govt executed or self executed). There’s neighborhoods of Los Angeles that should be crazy thriving and nice but are dominated with illegals. I would not be surprised to see so many leave that the now kids of kids of the original owners are willing to bail for Pennie’s on the dollar. Looks like the state may buy these and renovated them for “supportive” housing purposes. Not sure but certain neighborhoods surrounding downtown Los Angeles should experience massive upheaval in the next few years.

Here’s how bad it is. No one in LA County wants to serve jury duty downtown. But LA HAS to pull from a pool of jurors that live 20-30 miles away, even though those suburbs have their own courthouses. Part of it is number of cases(yet no one but locals get called to Van Nuys, LAX, Compton, Inglewood, or Long Beach courthouses yet all are large and quite busy), but mostly it’s because there are so few citizens living in the neighborhoods surrounding downtown.
167   AD   2025 Aug 4, 1:15am  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

Not sure but certain neighborhoods surrounding downtown Los Angeles should experience massive upheaval in the next few years.

Here’s how bad it is. No one in LA County wants to serve jury duty downtown. But LA HAS to pull from a pool of jurors that live 20-30 miles away, even though those suburbs have their own courthouses. Part of it is number of cases(yet no one but locals get called to Van Nuys, LAX, Compton, Inglewood, or Long Beach courthouses yet all are large and quite busy), but mostly it’s because there are so few citizens living in the neighborhoods surrounding downtown.


Depends also if they are living in homes that are near the end of their ~70 year old service life, and yes it depends on the owners as it could be young millennial heirs who don't mind selling for $250,000 a crap shack in LA whereas they could have fetched it for $500,000 in early 2022.

I wonder how many Congressional seats in California are attributed to the Census counting illegal or undocumented immigrants.

You at least agree that California is a Democrat shithole state.

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169   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 5, 4:40pm  

This thread's post should be reported to @IfindRetards on X
171   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 13, 2:37pm  






Hey @anon5525 , how's that 'immigration will save housing' AAA grade bullshit working out now, eh?


172   Glock-n-Load   2025 Aug 13, 4:45pm  

Only a 20% drop is needed? That’s pretty crazy imo. Prices went up to high so fast, I’d think not but, I’m not an expert.
173   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 13, 4:57pm  

Glock-n-Load says


Only a 20% drop is needed? That’s pretty crazy imo. Prices went up to high so fast, I’d think not but, I’m not an expert.


Depends on the market. 20% for most of average America. For most of California 40% - 80%. DC area, 60% at least. For Dumfuq, IL...I'll defer to Wookie but I am guessing none at all or just 5% at most.
175   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 13, 5:35pm  

anon5525 says

Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.



176   Glock-n-Load   2025 Aug 13, 6:17pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Glock-n-Load says



Only a 20% drop is needed? That’s pretty crazy imo. Prices went up to high so fast, I’d think not but, I’m not an expert.


Depends on the market. 20% for most of average America. For most of California 40% - 80%. DC area, 60% at least. For Dumfuq, IL...I'll defer to Wookie but I am guessing none at all or just 5% at most.

DC 60%? That is not going to happen. Ever.
177   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 13, 6:40pm  

Glock-n-Load says

DC 60%? That is not going to happen. Ever.


And what magic will continue to prop it up? I can think of some.
178   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2025 Aug 13, 7:08pm  

Oh the anon OP certainly does not hold a monopoly on being an unmitigated moron.

Reports today that over 1.6 million illegals voluntarily self deported. Good thing Trump didn’t listen to imbecile Democrats:

https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2024/12/mass-deportations-would-deliver-a-catastrophic-blow-to-the-u-s-economy
180   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2025 Aug 13, 7:17pm  

My question: how is it even possible to be so dumb?
181   REpro   2025 Aug 13, 7:49pm  

There will be no disaster in real estate sale.
Prices reduced down for those who can't wait, but not a flush sale.
The reason: foreclosure and short sale on extremely low level.
Sellers sitting well and don't have to sell with deep discount.
Buy now before interest rate be lowered. After that, you may find yourself in lost opportunity.
182   Glock-n-Load   2025 Aug 13, 8:15pm  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

My question: how is it even possible to be so dumb?

So you’re for or against deportations?
183   Glock-n-Load   2025 Aug 13, 8:16pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Glock-n-Load says


DC 60%? That is not going to happen. Ever.


And what magic will continue to prop it up? I can think of some.

Which means it’s not overvalued. They’re supported by the incomes.
184   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2025 Aug 13, 8:19pm  

Glock-n-Load says

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says


My question: how is it even possible to be so dumb?

So you’re for or against deportations?


???
185   Patrick   2025 Aug 13, 8:31pm  

Glock-n-Load says

They’re supported by the incomes.


DC has a median income of $106,287 and a median house price of $764,716.

That's far beyond reasonable.
186   Patrick   2025 Aug 13, 8:32pm  

Just kind of interesting:



187   Misc   2025 Aug 13, 8:43pm  

Patrick says

Just kind of interesting:


Just look at the date. You can safely add 50% onto those home prices across the board.
188   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 13, 8:51pm  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

My question: how is it even possible to be so dumb?


This:



Cognitive Dissonance
189   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 13, 8:53pm  

Glock-n-Load says


Which means it’s not overvalued. They’re supported by the incomes.


Not when the NGO funding and mass layoffs happen, which just did. Housing inventory shot thru the roof.

But Demographics is what will bring it down. See below.
191   AD   2025 Aug 13, 10:48pm  

MolotovCocktail says








One reason they want population growth (other than to support Social Security and Medicare with new payers into the "system") is also for housing growth.

Problem is population growth is driven by new arrivals (or immigrants) who are putting a strain Medicaid and local public schools.

I am not sure all those 14 million baby boomers dying have homes to pass on to their heirs, and how many are living in rentals or government-subsidized housing ? That 6 million homes left by the 14 million seems very high.

But if all this is at least somewhat true, then I wonder how this affects housing starts.

Like calculate the derivative of the housing start graph for each year over the last 30, 20, 10 and 5 years as well as over the next 10 years.

.
192   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Aug 13, 11:47pm  

Baby Boomers (and the few remaining Silents) own ~50% of the Housing in the US. Xers and Millennials and what few Zoomers all combined together have the other half.

What happens with the Boomers basically determines housing market. The Millies are still only half owners into their 30s, so plenty of demand - but at a reasonable Boomers-globalized-the-jobs price. Not $500k
193   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 14, 12:03am  

AD says

That 6 million homes left by the 14 million seems very high.


Boomers' impact on the economy has always been high.

The diaper companies grew and made bank when they were babies. Now, they do the same with depends.
194   AD   2025 Aug 14, 12:15am  

MolotovCocktail says


Boomers' impact on the economy has always been high.

The diaper companies grew and made bank when they were babies. Now, they do the same with depends.


Demographics drives commerce and economics like Ken Gronbach, a demographics expert, said on Coast to Coast AM. And Larry Sabato says demographics is destiny.

One example he said was when Gen X and Baby Boomers got older, Levis Jeans started to see a major drop in sales.

And the last of the Baby Boomers moving to Florida seem to be in the next 2 years.

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195   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Aug 14, 12:17am  

One distortion with generation ownership is how much the homes have appreciated and for how long for each generation.

You can sell the house today you brought in 1992 for $120k, paid off in 2022, and still make a profit at $200k in 2027 when the housing market collapse.

Conversely, you are completely fucked if you try to sell the house you brought at 31 in 2021 for $500k that drops to $200k.

And yes, that could be the case if Milly Millennial and Bob Boomer are both trying to unload the same Al Bundy on the same block the built at the same time in the same development by the same builder and the same model from 1978, but purchased at different times
196   Misc   2025 Aug 14, 12:52am  

All becomes moot in the case of hyperinflation.
197   AD   2025 Aug 14, 1:32am  

Misc says


All becomes moot in the case of hyperinflation.


Supply and demand

If you do not have enough population due to "low population growth" and you have too much housing inventory or stock, then something has got to give.

Maybe be creative like convert the "excess inventory" homes to vacation rentals if in the right place like a Colorado mountain town or Florida beach town.

That is why I wonder how residential housing construction starts will fare over next 25 years (and compare to the period of 2000 to 2025).

What are the economists saying who advise residential developers, DR Horton, Toll Brothers, and the 84 Lumber's ?

What are cities planning as far as infrastructure like public schools and water and sewer ?

Like I said, it seems like residential construction has come to a complete halt in Panama City Beach at least since last year.

.
198   GNL   2025 Aug 14, 4:54am  

Patrick says

Glock-n-Load says


They’re supported by the incomes.


DC has a median income of $106,287 and a median house price of $764,716.

That's far beyond reasonable.

1) What's the median net worth in DC?
2) How much of the economy and corporate bottom lines are dependent on house values?
I ask because I believe it is a shit ton. This means almost everyone is incentivized to keep
values high. I think they will stay high. Affordability will be low for a loooong time.
199   WookieMan   2025 Aug 14, 5:03am  

Patrick says

Just kind of interesting:





Hmmm. This map proves the point. The outliers I all know well. Gallatin County, MT. Look up Big Sky. Bozeman and Belgrade are moderately priced for 3-5X income, high but not awful. Big Sky is probably 20X the average income. Denver area I shouldn't have to explain. Reno, NV is self explanatory as well with Tahoe and Tesla.

Then you got Jackson, WY. One of the most expensive places in the country. It really is a fucking amazing place. Nashville is high because of Nissan and I forget the massive tire manufacturing company. Boise is hipsterville. Everywhere else is coastal. All within driving distance for a weekend at the beach. Hell even Nashville is only 6-7 hours to the panhandle.

When people flee Democratic policies in the cities those high prices drop. People move to a cheaper places so the national average comes down. Thing is no one is coming back to cities once they learn rural life, have more money to spend. We're going to be seeing more Detroits in the next decade. Fact is the center of the country is well within their means of purchasing a home. I don't want you to live there, but you could and be much happier if you don't bring your shit with you.
200   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 14, 6:44am  

AD says


What are cities planning as far as infrastructure like public schools and water and sewer ?


W & S lines are already starting to be problems as the ones built for Levitt towns (first suburbs) are at the end of their original service life but there isn't enough of a tax base to pay to replace them. And of course, towns didn't put any/enough aside for this and Boomers vote down the bonds needed to raise.

And there are later suburbs built that will have the same problem.

https://youtu.be/dIcPSH7ExMM?si=PFbmWgzgtm6u4G6L
201   HeadSet   2025 Aug 14, 6:12pm  

AD says

I am not sure all those 14 million baby boomers dying have homes to pass on to their heirs

And even those that do pass on a house will pass it to just one of their several children. However, if the heirs decode to sell and split the proceeds, they will likely price to sell quickly.

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