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Housing prices will not go down...


               
2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   21,691 views  601 comments

by anon5525   follow (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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461   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 9:37pm  

MolotovCocktail says


What planet do you live on?


Google it:

Gen Z has amassed significant financial wealth, with one 2022 report stating they held nearly $6 trillion, though many still face financial instability. Their wealth growth is driven by increased stock and retirement account ownership, while also being the generation with the lowest median net worth due to high costs of living and student debt. Despite challenges, some Gen Zers are rapidly accumulating wealth through high-paying jobs, and projections suggest they will become the richest generation by 2035 through a major wealth transfer

https://fortune.com/2024/05/02/gen-z-wealth-spending-power-income-job-market-vs-previous-generations/
462   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 13, 9:38pm  

Misc says

Gen Z has amassed significant financial wealth



463   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 10:30pm  

The US has the highest percentage of college graduates with engineering and science degrees in the world clocking in at about 35%. They get high paying jobs. There's just not much of a news story there.

We hear about those with a disfunction.
464   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 13, 11:15pm  

Misc says

The US has the highest percentage of college graduates with engineering and science degrees in the world clocking in at about 35%. They get high paying jobs. There's just not much of a news story there.

We hear about those with a disfunction.


That 35% figure just GenZ or all college grads?

Either way, the dysfunction is the norm. 100 - 35 is what? 65%.

Vast majority of tech degrees now are foreigners, not Americans.

And the ones who are Americans are discriminated against for foreign hires.

Their family/household formationis totally in the shitter.

And there isn't enough of them to buy Boomer houses at inflated Boomer prices. Period.

I seriously don't know what bizarro world you live in. Sure you aren't confusing them with Millennials?
465   Misc   2025 Oct 14, 12:09am  

MolotovCocktail says


I seriously don't know what bizarro world you live in. Sure you aren't confusing them with Millennials?


Nope Gen Z. Unemployment rate is 4.3% overall and lower than that for STEM fields. US companies pay more than any other corporations in the world. The 35% is just scientists and engineers. You still have your medical people, finance guys, etc. Figure 18% gravitate to government jobs. There's the pure bullshit graduates and those are the ones that make the news.

Like I've been saying it's too early to call for a housing crash. Case/Shiller is about 1% down from the high hit this summer. There's only about $86 billion worth of houses for sale. Real Estate does not exist in a vacuum. That $86 billion is nothing to the financial markets.

About 33% of housing purchases are done all cash.
466   GNL   2025 Oct 14, 4:27am  

Gen Z is between 13 and 28 years old.
467   WookieMan   2025 Oct 14, 4:33am  

Misc says

About 33% of housing purchases are done all cash.

Yup. And we're hitting record low home ownership rates around 60%. People locked into low interest rates that have been paid off 5-10 years and they don't need to move. We're at historically low build rates. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Prices will go sideways for now, not up or down unless there's a massive job loss crisis, which I don't see or over building in specific areas.

2010-2018 was the best time to ever buy a house and a shit load of people did. They aren't moving. Then factor in dying boomers and inheritances even if it's only $20-40k. That's a solid down payment.

We're in the 21st century of the roaring 20's. Without population growth I have concerns about the 30-40's of this centruy. I'll be out of most investments and a paid off house by then. Worry about my kids though. I just don't see bad things coming. 2028 is going to be a massive year.
468   FortWayneHatesRealtors   2025 Oct 14, 5:40am  

Misc says

MolotovCocktail says



I seriously don't know what bizarro world you live in. Sure you aren't confusing them with Millennials?


Nope Gen Z. Unemployment rate is 4.3% overall and lower than that for STEM fields. US companies pay more than any other corporations in the world. The 35% is just scientists and engineers. You still have your medical people, finance guys, etc. Figure 18% gravitate to government jobs. There's the pure bullshit graduates and those are the ones that make the news.

Like I've been saying it's too early to call for a housing crash. Case/Shiller is about 1% down from the high hit this summer. There's only about $86 billion worth of houses for sale. Real Estate does not exist in a vacuum. That $86 billion is nothing to the financial markets.

About 33% of housing purchases are done all cash.


Aren’t they still in high school?
469   Misc   2025 Oct 14, 6:22am  

Fortwaye says

Aren’t they still in high school?


The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.
470   FortWayneHatesRealtors   2025 Oct 14, 6:38am  

Misc says

Fortwaye says


Aren’t they still in high school?


The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.


I don't see that around here. I'm not sure why you think they have it so easy. They are kids, with nothing, no money, no assets, no skills, no network. If you telling me 20yo's have assets and network, I won't take you seriously.
471   Misc   2025 Oct 14, 6:53am  

Fortwaye says

I don't see that around here. I'm not sure why you think they have it so easy. They are kids, with nothing, no money, no assets, no skills, no network. If you telling me 20yo's have assets and network, I won't take you seriously.


How old were you when you bought your 1st house ???
472   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 14, 9:06am  

Misc says

Fortwaye says


Aren’t they still in high school?


The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.



473   mell   2025 Oct 14, 9:19am  

Fortwaye says

Misc says


Fortwaye says



Aren’t they still in high school?


The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.



I don't see that around here. I'm not sure why you think they have it so easy. They are kids, with nothing, no money, no assets, no skills, no network. If you telling me 20yo's have assets and network, I won't take you seriously.

Agreed it's too optimistic. There are some who made money in crypto and dividends early on but the majority doesn't have the buying power.
474   Glock-n-Load   2025 Oct 14, 10:48am  

MolotovCocktail says

GNL says


Are home prices declining yet?


50% of states so far.

But all of those are hipster states, correct? :)
475   RC2006   2025 Oct 14, 1:17pm  

My 10% down on my first house was more than my parents total cost for thier first house. My dad made a quarter of what I make and my mom wasn't working when they bought their house. Its even worse for my kids. Housing had more than doubled since my son was born. Young people are getting fucked.
476   Blue   2025 Oct 14, 1:32pm  

RC2006 says

My 10% down on my first house was more than my parents total cost for thier first house. My dad made a quarter of what I make and my mom wasn't working when they bought their house. Its even worse for my kids. Housing had more than doubled since my son was born. Young people are getting fucked.

Recently I saw 5% down payment at a new construction site in south Bay Area. Like I mentioned in one of my above posts 20:80 rule, housing became novelty and not for everyone like in the old days. At this point, I suspect every major country falls into this category because of the modern monetary policy! Young people life is stolen by their parents and parasite governments by design. This is very sad situation.
477   WookieMan   2025 Oct 14, 1:42pm  

RC2006 says


My 10% down on my first house was more than my parents total cost for thier first house. My dad made a quarter of what I make and my mom wasn't working when they bought their house. Its even worse for my kids. Housing had more than doubled since my son was born. Young people are getting fucked.

They're not getting fucked. They want to live in places they cannot afford. It's simple math and data.

Coal Valley, IL (not near where I live). Close to interstates and 4 decent sized cities, so there's work. A regional airport with commercial flights. Low traffic. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/108-W-15th-Ave-Coal-Valley-IL-61240/207346004_zpid/

But no. People want to live in CA, FL, Denver, Austin, Nashville, etc. You could get that house for $170-175k negotiating. There are houses for young people everywhere, that's not an excuse. A $35k/yr teacher and $35k/yr landscaper could pay that easily on the 3x income rule if they don't have debt.

That's a perfectly fine starter home that likely needs some work, but that's part of growing up and what real men and even women do. You put in work before you have kids.

I know i'll keep getting shit on about this. Young people want hipster and coastal spots and then bitch about affordability. When you're 24 your're not going to the Westin on St. John USVI at $6-7k/wk and another $3k on eating out. That's likely 10-20% of your income after tax. Go to the Panhandle of FL and get a condo for $1,200/wk and make your own meals. Guess what you can have the same fun.

When you become wealthy then have the good things. In the meantime live within your means. Buy low, fix up and sell higher. If you're a man that has no skills than that's ultimately your fault. Can't blame prices. You sound like a faggot when you blame high prices.
478   Blue   2025 Oct 14, 9:01pm  

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6LsqK63A8s
San Francisco's housing market 2026

Market is down but still expensive for most people (80%!), he says may not crash further. Looks like it’s the same correction happening in some pockets in expensive cities across the country. Rest of the country is fine I guess if not steamrolling inflation on the way to hold the floor.
479   FortWayneHatesRealtors   2025 Oct 15, 4:03am  

Blue says


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6LsqK63A8s
San Francisco's housing market 2026

Market is down but still expensive for most people (80%!), he says may not crash further. Looks like it’s the same correction happening in some pockets in expensive cities across the country. Rest of the country is fine I guess if not steamrolling inflation on the way to hold the floor.


RE in my state went down about 20%, I don't know if correction will continue, probably. I kind of hope it keeps crashing so regular folks can afford housing. The harder it gets to buy, the more crapy apartments builders build to earn rental income, I hate seeing that. Our entire state propped up by illegals renting and all cash boomers moving in and retiring to live in cheaper cost of living. Once blue state exodus stops, real estate here will likely nose dive, as there are no jobs here outside farm work which is done often by illegals or seasonal workers.

Years ago there were those informercials telling seniors to move to some middle of nowhere, and how it'll be up and coming future. And after few years it all crashes and burns because there is nothing there anyway. Red states right now remind me of that a lot. Everyone (including myself) moved here, in a few years it'll be a massive crash I think.
481   HeadSet   2025 Oct 15, 7:30am  

Fortwaye says

CA instant action to prop up landlords by paying rents.

How is that constitutional? It seems a court would strike that down fast. It also seems that locals who are noy illegals would object to rents being propped up.
482   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 15, 8:56am  

Glock-n-Load says


MolotovCocktail says


GNL says


Are home prices declining yet?


50% of states so far.


But all of those are hipster states, correct? :)





WookieMan says


I know i'll keep getting shit on about this. Young people want hipster and coastal...You sound like a faggot when you blame high prices.
484   Glock-n-Load   2025 Oct 15, 9:06am  

HeadSet says

Fortwaye says


CA instant action to prop up landlords by paying rents.

How is that constitutional? It seems a court would strike that down fast. It also seems that locals who are noy illegals would object to rents being propped up.

Constitutional? Too funny. Endless unconstitutional shit has been going on. It’s a power struggle, the constitution be damned.
485   Ceffer   2025 Oct 17, 2:46pm  

Even infallible Santa Cruz is showing signs of softening. The schools around where we have our place are obviously showing many fewer babmbinos. The illegals would come over here and use false addresses to send to the schools, and, of course, the KommieKunt Teacher's Union gave their blessing.

486   AD   2025 Oct 17, 3:02pm  

MolotovCocktail says






or the heirs to these homes (young Generation X's, etc) sell at a much lower price ?

.
487   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 20, 10:45pm  

AD says

Generation X's, etc) sell at a much lower price ?


Yes. And that is why housing prices as we've known them our entire lives are fucked.
488   AD   2025 Oct 20, 11:30pm  

MolotovCocktail says

AD says


Generation X's, etc) sell at a much lower price ?


Yes. And that is why housing prices as we've known them our entire lives are fucked.


Yes, as a senior citizen born in 1930 has a home valued $1 million in 2023 (and valued for $300,000 in 2002), and then their Gen X heir inherits it in 2025 and would be happy to sell it for $700,000 (hence about 4% annual appreciation from 2002 to 2025).
489   WookieMan   2025 Oct 21, 9:35am  

AD says

MolotovCocktail says


AD says



Generation X's, etc) sell at a much lower price ?


Yes. And that is why housing prices as we've known them our entire lives are fucked.



Yes, as a senior citizen born in 1930 has a home valued $1 million in 2023 (and valued for $300,000 in 2002), and then their Gen X heir inherits it in 2025 and would be happy to sell it for $700,000 (hence about 4% annual appreciation from 2002 to 2025).

Yeah but how many inherit the home and just move in and that house never hit the market. Had a childhood friend that was a widow and got killed walking the dog by a car. Son moved into a paid off house.

My past house my mom bought. Never hit the market. Boomers are also a bit more financially savvy than their previous generations. My mom bought the house in a trust. I get the house back when she dies. So by default I still kind of own it unless I die first. I just can't borrow against it, but it will probably be a $400k asset in 20 years paid off.

Point being is there's a shadow inventory no one knows about. People are also smarter about realtors. I avoided $15k in commissions and another $1,500 in attorney fees overall selling to my mom. Most data is taken from MLS data. What you don't see, you don't know.

The kids that sell at a lower price are like your classic lottery winner. They're greedy and will blow all the money and just wanted it now. I think that's a tiny fraction of home sales. Most smart people want the most money or just move into the inherited property. Plus there's a good chance the house is in shitty shape if the parents were 70-90. So the house may be worth less money and not the kid willing to take less.
490   Glock-n-Load   2025 Oct 21, 9:59am  

You act like 4% price growth is written law.
491   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 21, 10:12am  

WookieMan says

Yeah but how many inherit the home and just move in and that house never hit the market.


Something 71% of homes inherited are sold nu the heirs. Currently.
492   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 21, 10:27am  

Glock-n-Load says

You act like 4% price growth is written law.


That is exactly how many Housing Experts on PatNet think.
493   GNL   2025 Oct 21, 10:49am  

1930 Gold = $20.67. Gold right now = $4125. So that means gold has a yearly growth rate of 5.73%/annum.
494   WookieMan   2025 Oct 21, 10:52am  

Glock-n-Load says

You act like 4% price growth is written law.

It's not, but it definitely trends around that amount. I wouldn't expect it every year. If you're planning for retirement when you're 35, 4% is probably a safe bet over 30 years to expect that appreciation. Hopefully paid off and tax free if you sell.

Renting could be cheaper, but if you don't invest the savings you'll be more broke than owning. And also have to deal with the risk of moving not at will and not customizing your space. And most repairs are trivial when owning or are 10-30 year events and insurance may cover it.
495   WookieMan   2025 Oct 21, 10:56am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Yeah but how many inherit the home and just move in and that house never hit the market.

Something 71% of homes inherited are sold nu the heirs. Currently.

Link?

WookieMan says

Point being is there's a shadow inventory no one knows about.

That 71% of inherited homes might be 1% of the overall housing market. Need to back that up with data if you state that. I gave two examples and I know of more personally and from my real estate years. No one wants to pay a realtor when selling. So the data on inherited homes cannot be tracked like other sales.
496   Blue   2025 Oct 21, 11:24am  

MolotovCocktail says

Glock-n-Load says


You act like 4% price growth is written law.


That is exactly how many Housing Experts on PatNet think.

I know someone at East Bay Area, CA experiencing 5%/year decline for the last 3 years. He is having hard time to sell. Cases like this are not uncommon. But slow and steady steamrolling inflation brings the RE market up in the long run. You can’t argue with criminal enterprise governments and their free printing press. Because they want to “help” people 😜
497   GNL   2025 Oct 21, 11:27am  

Blue says

MolotovCocktail says


Glock-n-Load says



You act like 4% price growth is written law.


That is exactly how many Housing Experts on PatNet think.


I know someone at East Bay Area, CA experiencing 5%/year decline for the last 3 years. He is having hard time to sell. Cases like this are not uncommon. But slow and steady steamrolling inflation brings the RE market up in the long run. You can’t argue with criminal enterprise governments and their free printing press. Because they want to “help” people 😜

Yes, I understand. What got my goat was thinking there's some kind of norm. It's all over the place and depends on which 20(?) or whatever consecutive years you use.
498   GNL   2025 Oct 21, 11:28am  

We could go back to the beginning of time and determine the average daily temperature also but, that won't tell us jack shit.
500   Blue   2025 Oct 21, 12:01pm  

Btw, the person I mentioned above bought during scamdamic peak prices. Seller put a home depot lipstick on $1.1m old shack sold for $1.5m. Poor guy bought out of social pressure.

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