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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ

Allysia FinleyDec. 25, 2022 6:20 pm ET

Toyota’s CEO delivers a timely warning, and many states echo it.

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda recently caused the climate lobby to blow a fuse by speaking a truth about battery electric vehicles that his fellow auto executives dare not. “Just like the fully autonomous cars that we were all supposed to be driving by now,” Mr. Toyoda said in Thailand, “I think BEVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe.” He added that a “silent majority” in the auto industry share his view, “but they think it’s the trend, so they can’t speak out loudly.”
The Biden administration seems to believe that millions of Americans will rush out to buy electric vehicles if only the government throws enough subsidies at them. Last year’s infrastructure bill included $7.5 billion in grants for states to expand their charging networks. But it’s a problem when even the states are warning the administration that electric vehicles aren’t ready to go mainstream.

Maine notes in a plan submitted to the Federal Highway Administration this summer that “cold temperatures will remain a top challenge” for adoption, since “cold weather reduces EV range and increases charging times.” When temperatures drop to 5 degrees Fahrenheit, the cars achieve only 54% of their quoted range. A vehicle that’s supposed to be able to go 250 miles between charges will make it only 135 miles on average. At 32 degrees—a typical winter day in much of the country—a Tesla Model 3 that in ideal conditions can go 282 miles between charges will make it only 173 miles.
Imagine if the 100 million Americans who took to the road over the holidays were driving electric cars. How many would have been stranded as temperatures plunged? There wouldn’t be enough tow trucks—or emergency medics—for people freezing in their cars.
The Transportation Department is requiring states to build charging stations every 50 miles along interstate highways and within a mile of off-ramps to reduce the likelihood of these scenarios. But most state electrical grids aren’t built to handle this many charging stations and will thus require expensive upgrades. Illinois, for one, warns of “challenges related to sufficient electric grid capacity, particularly in rural areas of the state.”

Charging stations in rural areas with little traffic are also unlikely to be profitable and could become “stranded assets,” as many states warn. Wyoming says out-of-state traffic from non-Tesla electric vehicles would have to increase 100-fold to cover charger costs under the administration’s rules. Tesla has already scoped out premier charging locations for its proprietary network. Good luck to competitors.

New Mexico warns that “poor station maintenance can lead to stations being perpetually broken and unusable, particularly in rural or hard to access locations. If an EV charging station is built in an area without electrical capacity and infrastructure to support its use, it will be unusable until the appropriate upgrades are installed.”

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Arizona says “private businesses may build and operate a station if a grant pays for the first five years of operations and maintenance” but might abandon the project if it later proves unprofitable. Many other states echo this concern, noting that federal funds could result in stranded assets.

The administration aims to build 500,000 stations, but states will likely have to spend their own money to keep them running. Like other federal inducements, these grants may entice states to assume what could become huge financial liabilities.

Federal funds also come with many rules, including “buy America” procurement requirements, which demand that chargers consist of mostly U.S.-made components. New Jersey says these could “delay implementation by several years” since only a few manufacturers can currently meet them. New York also says it will be challenging to comply with the web of federal rules, including the National Environmental Policy Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act of 1970, and a 1960 federal law that bars charging stations in rest areas.

Oh, and labor rules. The administration requires that electrical workers who install and maintain the stations be certified by the union-backed Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Training Program. New Mexico says much of the state lacks contractors that meet this mandate, which will reduce competition and increase costs.

Technical problems abound too. Virginia says fast-charging hardware “has a short track record” and is “prone to malfunctions.” Equipment “previously installed privately in Virginia has had a high failure rate shown in user comments and reports on social media,” and “even compatibility with credit card readers has been unexpectedly complicated.”

A study this spring led by University of California researchers found that more than a quarter of public direct-current fast-charging stations in the San Francisco Bay Area were unusable. Drivers will be playing roulette every time they head to a station. If all this weren’t disconcerting enough, Arizona warns cyber vulnerabilities could compromise customer financial transactions, charging infrastructure, electric vehicles and the grid.

Politicians and auto makers racing to eliminate the internal-combustion engine are bound to crash into technological, logistic and financial realities, as Mr. Toyoda warned. The casualties will be taxpayers, but the administration doesn’t seem to care.

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MolotovCocktail says

I asked a friend with a Tesla and he showed me that the doors of
a Tesla are mechanical - Common sense, right?

Yes, you can open the doors electrically. Doors lock automatically once you start driving, like every other car and truck today. However, every Tesla door has a manual release located in front of the window controls. It's plainly marked. There are also tutorial videos available as soon as you sit in the seat for the first time. You used to have to read the manual. They are literally spoon-feeding the new owner.

The number Tesla fires are extremely low:
Tesla vehicles experience fires at ~1 per 130-210 million miles driven (2012-2022 data), vs. ~1 per 18-19 million miles for average US vehicles (mostly ICE). Overall, EVs like Tesla are 10-60x safer from fire risk than ICE.

The case will be litigated in court, Tesla will likely defend vigorously.

I made the image just days before Jaguar unveiled their new design.

So, they haven't been able to sell a single car since they went extreme Woke, but they were able to con the UK government into giving them some taxpayer coin because they were "hacked".

Government Subsidy goes away, Losers be losers. Tesla? Still going strong. If you haven't bought stock yet, there is still time before the Tesla RoboTaxi bump happens.

rocketjoe79 says

before the Tesla RoboTaxi bump happens.

RoboTaxis will face legal hurdles, in my view. All SDCs will.

rocketjoe79 says

"...there is still time before the Tesla RoboTaxi bump happens."

A system that cannot fail safe should NEVER be automated.

rocketjoe79 says

There are also tutorial videos available as soon as you sit in the seat for the first time. You used to have to read the manual. They are literally spoon-feeding the new owner.

You think a 19 y.o. girl would read a manual or sit through a tutorial video? LOL.

Thing is: the whole thing is completely unnecessary. Just make fucking door handles mechanical and intuitive like in every other car on the road. Boom! Done. That wasn't hard, was it?

Ford is deciding to close down production of the F-150 lightning. They sold a whopping 1500 of them last month. By the Stats they sold more Edsels on a monthly basis, and the population was much smaller then.

Eric Holder says

rocketjoe79 says

There are also tutorial videos available as soon as you sit in the seat for the first time. You used to have to read the manual. They are literally spoon-feeding the new owner.

You think a 19 y.o. girl would read a manual or sit through a tutorial video? LOL.

Thing is: the whole thing is completely unnecessary. Just make fucking door handles mechanical and intuitive like in every other car on the road. Boom! Done. That wasn't hard, was it?

The issue is that the mechanical release isn't particularly convenient (in operation and/or placement). Thus people use the electronic button all the time and have no practice with the backup system when the need arises. Rolled vehicle filled with smoke, airbags in your face, and broken bones make matters ever so complicated when seconds count.

SunnyvaleCA says

The issue is that the mechanical release isn't particularly convenient (in operation and/or placement). Thus people use the electronic button all the time and have no practice with the backup system when the need arises. Rolled vehicle filled with smoke, airbags in your face, and broken bones make matters ever so complicated when seconds count.

The whole electric door release is a perfect example of why-tech. It's unnecessary, it's hard to use in an emergency, it adds complexity, etc. They say they need it to be electric in order to lower the glass before door is opened but countless counvertibles and coupes manage this with normal user interface - a fucking door handle.

Eric Holder says

The whole electric door release is a perfect example of why-tech.

Like shaving in front of a video camera and flat screen instead of a mirror.

Reminds me of a couple of Tesla fluffers here on Patnet:

Do not put bicyclists on the same list as vegans. A bike is an excellent way to do short trips in a small town or suburb. I am talking about pedal only bikes, not electric bikes that are really just another type of Vespa scooter.

My Tesla does nearly 100% of my driving now. Hard to put into words what an amazing feature this is as it adds massive safety and convenience to my life. It was incredible having it drive home from the restaurant last night in the pouring rain after I had a few beers with dinner.

People have no idea what’s coming…..

Now that the EV subsidies are gone, EV adoption will slow down, but Tesla will be the last man standing as they were already able to make EV’s at a sustainable profit - while everyone else is now pulling back. Very few Tesla drivers (who don’t have TDS or EDS) are going back to primitive ICE cars.

socal2 says

"My Tesla does nearly 100% of my driving now."

socal2: I have a lot of experience with automating various processes, systems etc and
my $0.02 in this area is to never automate a system that cannot fail safe."

For example... what if the automatic system on that vehicle fails while you are doing
70 mph on the highway?

Again, my $0.02...

socal2 says

It was incredible having it drive home from the restaurant last night in the pouring rain after I had a few beers with dinner.

DUI with "autopilot" carries the same consequences as DUI without.

RWSGFY says

DUI with "autopilot" carries the same consequences as DUI without.

Interesting if the "autopilot" detects your slurred speech voice commands and take you to the police station.

Tenpoundbass says

Then the companies that are going to accommodate them, can you just imagine the petty rules, and elitist merits, that companies will allow or not allow their employees to use the limited charging stations at the office?

My friend's wife works at a local hospital. They recently installed 1 ev charger for the employees, for their office.
They used to be a tight knit group, considered themselves like family. But since the car charger, the EV drivers have all turned into bitter petty foes, worrying about who was on the charger one minute longer than the allotted time. The emails, interoffice memos, the HR reporting all over EV charging privileges and times. The problem is, the people that drive to work on empty, for the amount of time they get on the charger, it barely puts anything back.

Tenpoundbass says

Tenpoundbass says

Then the companies that are going to accommodate them, can you just imagine the petty rules, and elitist merits, that companies will allow or not allow their employees to use the limited charging stations at the office?

My friend's wife works at a local hospital. They recently installed 1 ev charger for the employees, for their office.
They used to be a tight knit group, considered themselves like family. But since the car charger, the EV drivers have all turned into bitter petty foes, worrying about who was on the charger one minute longer than the allotted time. The emails, interoffice memos, the HR reporting all over EV charging privileges and times. The problem is, the people that drive to work on empty, for the amount of time they get on the charger, it barely puts anything back.

Whoever chosen and manages that thing is a stupid cunt then. Chargepoint makes is very easy to setup a virtual queue, set charge time limits, penalties for overstaying at the spot after reaching the charge limit, etc. And it all is handled in the app and anonimuzed to the point you have no way to know who's in front of you in line unless you sit in the parking lot and watch the charger whole day, so sending emails and interoffice memos is not necessary and accomplishes nothing.

Tenpoundbass says

Tenpoundbass says

Then the companies that are going to accommodate them, can you just imagine the petty rules, and elitist merits, that companies will allow or not allow their employees to use the limited charging stations at the office?

My friend's wife works at a local hospital. They recently installed 1 ev charger for the employees, for their office.
They used to be a tight knit group, considered themselves like family. But since the car charger, the EV drivers have all turned into bitter petty foes, worrying about who was on the charger one minute longer than the allotted time. The emails, interoffice memos, the HR reporting all over EV charging privileges and times. The problem is, the people that drive to work on empty, for the amount of time they get on the charger, it barely puts anything back.

I've always wondered what incetives motivate employers to provide free charging as a perk. I've never heard of employers providing discounted or free fuel vouchers as a perk. Are they getting really cheap subsidized rates to not make a dent in their books?

floki says

I've never heard of employers providing discounted or free fuel vouchers as a perk

Electricity is much cheaper that buying off site gasoline.

HeadSet says

floki says

I've never heard of employers providing discounted or free fuel vouchers as a perk

Electricity is much cheaper that buying off site gasoline.

I know that HeadSet, but my point was what is in it for employers to provide free charging as a perk when other forms of transportation related costs are not (like costs of bikes, scooter, fuel, hov stickers, tolls) etc... I was using gas vouchers as one example.

RWSGFY says

And it all is handled in the app and anonimuzed to the point you have no way to know who's in front of you in line unless you sit in the parking lot and watch the charger whole day, so sending emails and interoffice memos is not necessary and accomplishes nothing.

Yeah well you go down to the parking lot and Sheniqua still has her Lexus charging. Do you wanna go tell Sheniqua she's in the wrong? Because that's a good way to take a pony tail sled ride around the breakroom on your back.

floki says

what is in it for employers to provide free charging as a perk

Employers look for low cost perks to attract employees, as it is cheaper than raises. Free charging may fit that bill just like a credit union membership or free bus passes the company buys in bulk.

RWSGFY says

DUI with "autopilot" carries the same consequences as DUI without.

Yep - that is the case right now, so I am careful not to get drunk. Just nice to have this awesome self driving capability to provide additional safety after a couple beers or bad weather. In the coming year I expect Tesla will take liability and we can literally sleep in the backseat of our cars no different then what the Robotaxi will be doing in Austin without a driver in a few weeks.

socal2 says

In the coming year I expect Tesla will take liability

Seriously? What individual over at Tesla is going to serve time in prison for vehicular manslaughter then?

The world you live in, I swear...

MolotovCocktail says

socal2 says

In the coming year I expect Tesla will take liability

Seriously? What individual over at Tesla is going to serve time in prison for vehicular manslaughter then?

The world you live in, I swear...

I live in a world where my Tesla drives me everywhere I want to go from leaving my garage to parallel parking on busy streets like PCH.

I personally experience this amazing technology every single day. It already drives better than my wife and kids (and even me at times). And it literally gets better every month as the increase training data for edge cases.

To think humanity will still be manually driving cars in the coming years is to think we still would need elevator operators.

Tesla is already accumulating BILLIONS of miles of safe driving on roads including thousands of documented incidents of Teslas avoiding accident for regulators and insurance companies to review. It will end up costing drivers more in insurance if they are manually driving in the coming decade.

I sure hope we don’t get to a point where it is more expensive to drive yourself than have your car drive you. At that point the government/elites have effectively limited personal private transport to “self driving” vehicles…

ForcedTQ says

I sure hope we don’t get to a point where it is more expensive to drive yourself than have your car drive you. At that point the government/elites have effectively limited personal private transport to “self driving” vehicles…

I don’t want that either. I want the option to still drive for fun from time to time. Especially a Tesla which is one of the most powerful and fun cars on the road.

Fifty years from now? Who knows what the auto industry will look like? The average car sits idle about 90% of the day. Does every family need 2-3 cars? Can they have one car and the rest rely on low cost and efficient robotaxis?

ForcedTQ says

At that point the government/elites have effectively limited personal private transport to “self driving” vehicles…

Yup, tracked and controlled from some central location, just like with digital ID.

Maybe worse, because your self-driving car can be driven by them remotely, locking the doors and taking you wherever they want to. Maybe into a brick wall at 100 mph. The Israelis in particular love to use tech for assassinations, like they did with the pagers.

socal2 says

Tesla is already accumulating BILLIONS of miles of safe driving on roads including thousands of documented incidents of Teslas avoiding accident for regulators and insurance companies to review. It will end up costing drivers more in insurance if they are manually driving in the coming decade.

Doesn't answer my question to your Tesla liability bullshit. Who over at Tesla is going to serve hard prison time when a Tesla is at fault for vehicular manslaughter?

Patrick says

Yup, tracked and controlled from some central location

I believe we are now in the golden age of personal driving. In the future, I believe private cars will be prohibitively expensive and the common folk will get around by using an app to summon a shared use vehicle. Too bad if you want to pull a trailer or boat, and no more leisurely country drives.

HeadSet says

Patrick says

Yup, tracked and controlled from some central location

I believe we are now in the golden age of personal driving. In the future, I believe private cars will be prohibitively expensive and the common folk will get around by using an app to summon a shared use vehicle. Too bad if you want to pull a trailer or boat, and no more leisurely country drives.

That will and should definitely be the future in smaller cities, especially in downtowns, in zones where the necessary tech and infrastructure can be rebuilt, retrofitted, and regularly maintained. And like the "last mile" concept, I'd love to be able to drive and park my own car somewhere close by, then be able to get around by completely autonomous tech like buses, trams, cars, etc... Some future looking governments in places like Singapore, Tokyo, Dubai, etc... are planning for this. Some are being tested.

But, it'll be a long long time if at all possible outside of these zones for folks living in rural and secluded places. Even then I really do not think it's feasible at all, biggest issues being low usage, negative ROI, difficulties with maintainance, harsh weather and terrain related issues, etc... There are many more of these folks than city people realize. Try autopilot through a winding forest road to a secluded cabin or camp site. It is an arduous adventure, to say the least, on some roads even in the summer.

MolotovCocktail says

Doesn't answer my question to your Tesla liability bullshit. Who over at Tesla is going to serve hard prison time when a Tesla is at fault for vehicular manslaughter?

The exact same people who served time for the opioid crisis made by Perdue.